华北春季降水年际、年代际变化特征及其成因
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摘要
华北春季水资源的缺乏已严重妨碍了华北地区工农业生产的进一步发展，严重影响着华北地区经济的持续发展，是华北地区今后经济发展必须解决的重大问题。前人对华北地区夏季的旱涝进行了大量的研究，但对春季以及各月的旱涝情况的研究却相对很少。本文用华北春季及春季各月降水资料，NCEP资料以及COADS海温资料，采用EOF分解、Yamamoto分析、最大熵谱分析、相关分析、合成分析等方法研究了华北春季、各月降水的总体分布特征及时空分布特征，并从总体上探讨了其与海温、大气环流年际、年代际变化的关系及其影响机制。
华北春季、各月降水的总体分布特征：春季及各月降水均存在年际变化特征，降水量偏少年份远多于偏多的年份，降水偏少年降水量与平均值相差较小，而降水偏多年降水量与平均值相差较大。4、5月降水存在年代际变化，5月份较明显。1962-1977年4月降水偏多，1978-1997年4月降水偏少；1983-1992年5月降水偏多，1965-1982年5月降水偏少。
华北春季及各月降水量距平场EOF分解的结果表明：华北春季及各月降水量的第一特征向量的空间分布均为全区一致型；第二特征向量除4月为东北正(负)、西南负(正)异常外，春季、3、5月均为东、西区异常符号相反；3月第三特征向量为南、北区异常符号相反。华北春季及各月降水量第一特征向量和相应时期的降水距平百分率具有相同的年际及年代际变化特征；春季及各月的第二特征向量均存在年际变化特征，5月最明显。
赤道印度洋是影响华北春季及3、5月降水年际变化的最重要区域，其次是热带中东太平洋。当赤道印度洋海温异常升高(降低)时，华北春季及3、5月降水偏多(少)；当热带中东太平洋海温异常升高(降低)时，华北春季、5月降水偏多(少)。(25°N——50°N，110°E——145°E)一带大气环流(200hPa)的年际变化与华北相应各月降水的年际变化有显著的正相关关系：(25°N——50°N，110°E——145°E)一带200hPa位势高度正异常，华北相应各月降水偏多，反之，当为负异常时，华北相应各月降水偏少。华北春季、5月降水的年际变化与前期低纬大气环流的年际变化有显著的正相关关系：当西太平洋-印度洋上空2-3月200hPa位势高度正(负)异常时，西太平洋副高偏强(弱)、偏西
，
华北存季降水年际、年代际变化及其成因
(东)，华北春季、5月降水偏多(少)。华北3月降水的年际变化和4、5月份
显著不同，赤道印度洋到孟加拉湾一带海温异常激发的Rossby波的能量沿着大
圆路径传播，可能是影响华北3月降水的年际变化的主要原因。冷空气活动以及
低空急流的年际变化是华北4月降水年际变化的重要原因。副热带高压的年际变
化是华北5月降水年际变化的主要原因。
华北4月降水与热带中东太平洋、赤道印度洋海温年代际变化呈明显的负相
关:华北5月降水与热带中东太平洋、赤道印度洋海温年代际变化存在明显的正
相关:热带海温的年代际异常引起的副热带高压的年代际异常可能是影响华北
4、5月降水异常的重要原因。
The lack of water resource over North China in Spring having severely heldback further development of production in industry and agriculture and influenced continual development of economics is an important problem to be settled for later economic development over North China. Former people have developed abundant research of drought and flood in Summer, but have less research of that in Spring and respective month over North China. In this article, Based on the rainfall data over North China in spring and respective month, atmospheric circulation data(NCEP)and the sea surface temperature data(SST), the methods of EOF analysis, Yamamoto analysis, MESA analysis, correlation analysis and composition analysis are used to study totaU spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the rainfall in Spring and respective month over North China, investigate correlation with interannual andinterdecadal variation of sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation , and analyse mechanism of influence.
The total distribution characteristics of the rainfall in spring and respective month over North China: there is interannual variable characteristics of the rainfall * in Spring and respective month, the years of less rainfall are far more than that of more rainfall. There is less difference between the rainfall of the years of less rainfall and average value, whereas there is more difference between the rainfall of the years of more rainfall and average value. There is interdecadal variation of the rainfall in April and May which is more obvious in May. The Rainfall increases from 1962 to 1977 , and decreases from 1978 to 1997 in April ; the Rainfall increases
from 1983 to 1992 , and decreases from 1965 to 1982 in May.
The results of EOF analysis of the rainfall anomaly in Sping and respective month over North China indicate:Spatial distribution of the first characteristic vecter is consistent in all areas;the second characteristic vecter which is positive (negative) anomaly in north east, and is negative (positive) anomaly in south west in April is east west anomaly in each of Spring., March and May ;the third characteristic vecter is north south anomaly in March. There is the same characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variation between the first characteristic vecter and corresponding percent of the rainfall anomaly ; the second characteristic vecter which is the most obvious in May has interannual variable characteristics in each month.
Equatorial Indian Ocean is the most important area which affect interannual variation of the rainfall in Spring, March and May over North China;the second important area is tropic middle-east pacific. When the Indian Ocean SST is positive (negative) anomaly , the rainfall increases (decreases) inSpring, March and May;when tropic middle-east pacific SST is positive (negative) anomaly , the rainfall increases(decreases) in Spring and May. There is significant positive correlation between interannual variation of atmospheric circulation(200 Hpa) in area (25?
N-50°N, 110°E-145°E) and that of the rainfall in each month, there is
significant positive correlation between interannual variation of former low level atmospheric circulation and that of the rainfall in Spring and May. There is significant difference between interannual variation of the rainfall in March and that in April and May, the main cause of affecting interannual variation of the rainfall in March possibly is that the energy excitated by SST anomaly in the area which is from equatorial Indian Ocean to Bengal gulf spreads along with big cicular route. The activity of cold air and interannual variation of low level jet are important cause of interannual variation of the rainfall in April. Interannual variation of subtropic high is the main cause of interannual variation of the rainfall in May over North China.
There is significant negative correlation between interdecadal variation of the rainfall in April and that of SST in the areas of equatorial Indian Ocean and tropic middle-east pacifi
华北春季、各月降水的总体分布特征：春季及各月降水均存在年际变化特征，降水量偏少年份远多于偏多的年份，降水偏少年降水量与平均值相差较小，而降水偏多年降水量与平均值相差较大。4、5月降水存在年代际变化，5月份较明显。1962-1977年4月降水偏多，1978-1997年4月降水偏少；1983-1992年5月降水偏多，1965-1982年5月降水偏少。
华北春季及各月降水量距平场EOF分解的结果表明：华北春季及各月降水量的第一特征向量的空间分布均为全区一致型；第二特征向量除4月为东北正(负)、西南负(正)异常外，春季、3、5月均为东、西区异常符号相反；3月第三特征向量为南、北区异常符号相反。华北春季及各月降水量第一特征向量和相应时期的降水距平百分率具有相同的年际及年代际变化特征；春季及各月的第二特征向量均存在年际变化特征，5月最明显。
赤道印度洋是影响华北春季及3、5月降水年际变化的最重要区域，其次是热带中东太平洋。当赤道印度洋海温异常升高(降低)时，华北春季及3、5月降水偏多(少)；当热带中东太平洋海温异常升高(降低)时，华北春季、5月降水偏多(少)。(25°N——50°N，110°E——145°E)一带大气环流(200hPa)的年际变化与华北相应各月降水的年际变化有显著的正相关关系：(25°N——50°N，110°E——145°E)一带200hPa位势高度正异常，华北相应各月降水偏多，反之，当为负异常时，华北相应各月降水偏少。华北春季、5月降水的年际变化与前期低纬大气环流的年际变化有显著的正相关关系：当西太平洋-印度洋上空2-3月200hPa位势高度正(负)异常时，西太平洋副高偏强(弱)、偏西
，
华北存季降水年际、年代际变化及其成因
(东)，华北春季、5月降水偏多(少)。华北3月降水的年际变化和4、5月份
显著不同，赤道印度洋到孟加拉湾一带海温异常激发的Rossby波的能量沿着大
圆路径传播，可能是影响华北3月降水的年际变化的主要原因。冷空气活动以及
低空急流的年际变化是华北4月降水年际变化的重要原因。副热带高压的年际变
化是华北5月降水年际变化的主要原因。
华北4月降水与热带中东太平洋、赤道印度洋海温年代际变化呈明显的负相
关:华北5月降水与热带中东太平洋、赤道印度洋海温年代际变化存在明显的正
相关:热带海温的年代际异常引起的副热带高压的年代际异常可能是影响华北
4、5月降水异常的重要原因。
The lack of water resource over North China in Spring having severely heldback further development of production in industry and agriculture and influenced continual development of economics is an important problem to be settled for later economic development over North China. Former people have developed abundant research of drought and flood in Summer, but have less research of that in Spring and respective month over North China. In this article, Based on the rainfall data over North China in spring and respective month, atmospheric circulation data(NCEP)and the sea surface temperature data(SST), the methods of EOF analysis, Yamamoto analysis, MESA analysis, correlation analysis and composition analysis are used to study totaU spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the rainfall in Spring and respective month over North China, investigate correlation with interannual andinterdecadal variation of sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation , and analyse mechanism of influence.
The total distribution characteristics of the rainfall in spring and respective month over North China: there is interannual variable characteristics of the rainfall * in Spring and respective month, the years of less rainfall are far more than that of more rainfall. There is less difference between the rainfall of the years of less rainfall and average value, whereas there is more difference between the rainfall of the years of more rainfall and average value. There is interdecadal variation of the rainfall in April and May which is more obvious in May. The Rainfall increases from 1962 to 1977 , and decreases from 1978 to 1997 in April ; the Rainfall increases
from 1983 to 1992 , and decreases from 1965 to 1982 in May.
The results of EOF analysis of the rainfall anomaly in Sping and respective month over North China indicate:Spatial distribution of the first characteristic vecter is consistent in all areas;the second characteristic vecter which is positive (negative) anomaly in north east, and is negative (positive) anomaly in south west in April is east west anomaly in each of Spring., March and May ;the third characteristic vecter is north south anomaly in March. There is the same characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variation between the first characteristic vecter and corresponding percent of the rainfall anomaly ; the second characteristic vecter which is the most obvious in May has interannual variable characteristics in each month.
Equatorial Indian Ocean is the most important area which affect interannual variation of the rainfall in Spring, March and May over North China;the second important area is tropic middle-east pacific. When the Indian Ocean SST is positive (negative) anomaly , the rainfall increases (decreases) inSpring, March and May;when tropic middle-east pacific SST is positive (negative) anomaly , the rainfall increases(decreases) in Spring and May. There is significant positive correlation between interannual variation of atmospheric circulation(200 Hpa) in area (25?
N-50°N, 110°E-145°E) and that of the rainfall in each month, there is
significant positive correlation between interannual variation of former low level atmospheric circulation and that of the rainfall in Spring and May. There is significant difference between interannual variation of the rainfall in March and that in April and May, the main cause of affecting interannual variation of the rainfall in March possibly is that the energy excitated by SST anomaly in the area which is from equatorial Indian Ocean to Bengal gulf spreads along with big cicular route. The activity of cold air and interannual variation of low level jet are important cause of interannual variation of the rainfall in April. Interannual variation of subtropic high is the main cause of interannual variation of the rainfall in May over North China.
There is significant negative correlation between interdecadal variation of the rainfall in April and that of SST in the areas of equatorial Indian Ocean and tropic middle-east pacifi
引文
[1]徐瑞珍，王蕾。我国近500年旱涝分析，全国气候变化学术讨论会文集。北京：科学出版社。1978。
[2]赵声蓉，宋正山。华北汛期旱涝与中高纬大气环流异常。高原气象。1999，11，535-540。
[3]梁平德。华北平原夏季干旱的大气气候分析．北方天气文集(6)．北京：北京大学出版
社，1987
[4]白韪安，苏福庆．北京夏季旱涝成因的分析和预报．北方天气文集(5)．北京：北京大学出版社，1984
[5]毕慕莹．近40年来华北干旱的特点及其成因．旱涝气候研究进展．北京：气象出版社，1990
[6]叶笃正，黄荣辉等．长江黄河流域旱涝规律和成因研究．山东：山东科学技术出版社，1996
[7]李峰，何金海。东亚夏季风与北太平洋SSTA关系的年代际变化特征及其机制研究。南京气象学院学报 2001，6，199-206。
[8]梁平德。印度夏季风与我国华北夏季降水量。气象学报。1988，2，75-80。
[9]杨晓霞，刘厚赞，刘梦玉，王景昌。海温场与副热带高压及山东夏季降水关系分析。南京气象学院学报。1997，6，243-247。
[10]张苏平，李丽平，程亚军，王盘兴。山东夏季降水与热带海气相互作用区域特性的相关分析。南京气象学院学报。2000，12，594-599。
[11]张苏平，朱平盛，胡桂芳。山东夏季降水与北太平洋SST和大气环流的关系。气象。23，4，3-8。
[12]陆日宇。与华北春季降水量异常关联的大气环流异常。气候与环境研究。2000，12，400-408。
[13]黄荣辉，徐予红，周连童。我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势。高原气象。1999，11，465-476。
[14]邹力，倪允琪。ENSO期热带太平洋和印度洋海温异常对亚洲夏季风变异影响的数值研究。海洋预报。1998，2，19-29。
[15]陈烈庭，金祖辉，罗绍华。印度洋和南海海温变化的特征及其与大气环流的某些联系。海洋学报。1985，1，103-110。
[16]徐建军，朱乾根。ENSO及其年代际异常对全球及亚洲季风降水影响的数值研究。气象学报。1999，6，301-313。
[17]李崇银，穆明权。赤道印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响。大气科学。2001，7，433-442。
[18]晏红明，肖子牛。印度洋海温异常对亚洲季风区天气气候影响的数值模拟研究。热带气象学报。2000，2，18-26。
[19]徐建军，朱乾根。印度洋-太平洋海温的气候模态及其年代际异常。海洋预报。1998，2，10-18。
[20]肖子牛，孙绩华，李崇银。ElNino期间印度洋海温异常对亚洲气候的影响。大气科学。2000，7，461-468
[21]晏红明，琚建华，肖子牛。ENSO循环的两个不同位相期印度洋海表温度异常的特征分析。南京气象学院学报。2001，6，242-248。
[22]吴国雄，孟文。赤道印度洋-太平洋海气系统的齿轮式藕合和ENSO事件。大气科学。1998，7，470-479。
[23]晏红明，肖子牛，谢应齐。近50年热带印度洋海温距平场的时空特征分析。气候与环境研究。2000，6，180-188。
[24]Zhang Y., JOHN M. WALLACE, AND DAVID S. BATTIST,1997, ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900-93, J Climate, 10, 1004-1020
[25]Hskins.B.J.andT.Ambrizzi,Rossby wave propagation on a realistic longitudinally varying flow.J.Atmos.Sci, 1993,50,1661 - 1671
[2]赵声蓉，宋正山。华北汛期旱涝与中高纬大气环流异常。高原气象。1999，11，535-540。
[3]梁平德。华北平原夏季干旱的大气气候分析．北方天气文集(6)．北京：北京大学出版
社，1987
[4]白韪安，苏福庆．北京夏季旱涝成因的分析和预报．北方天气文集(5)．北京：北京大学出版社，1984
[5]毕慕莹．近40年来华北干旱的特点及其成因．旱涝气候研究进展．北京：气象出版社，1990
[6]叶笃正，黄荣辉等．长江黄河流域旱涝规律和成因研究．山东：山东科学技术出版社，1996
[7]李峰，何金海。东亚夏季风与北太平洋SSTA关系的年代际变化特征及其机制研究。南京气象学院学报 2001，6，199-206。
[8]梁平德。印度夏季风与我国华北夏季降水量。气象学报。1988，2，75-80。
[9]杨晓霞，刘厚赞，刘梦玉，王景昌。海温场与副热带高压及山东夏季降水关系分析。南京气象学院学报。1997，6，243-247。
[10]张苏平，李丽平，程亚军，王盘兴。山东夏季降水与热带海气相互作用区域特性的相关分析。南京气象学院学报。2000，12，594-599。
[11]张苏平，朱平盛，胡桂芳。山东夏季降水与北太平洋SST和大气环流的关系。气象。23，4，3-8。
[12]陆日宇。与华北春季降水量异常关联的大气环流异常。气候与环境研究。2000，12，400-408。
[13]黄荣辉，徐予红，周连童。我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势。高原气象。1999，11，465-476。
[14]邹力，倪允琪。ENSO期热带太平洋和印度洋海温异常对亚洲夏季风变异影响的数值研究。海洋预报。1998，2，19-29。
[15]陈烈庭，金祖辉，罗绍华。印度洋和南海海温变化的特征及其与大气环流的某些联系。海洋学报。1985，1，103-110。
[16]徐建军，朱乾根。ENSO及其年代际异常对全球及亚洲季风降水影响的数值研究。气象学报。1999，6，301-313。
[17]李崇银，穆明权。赤道印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响。大气科学。2001，7，433-442。
[18]晏红明，肖子牛。印度洋海温异常对亚洲季风区天气气候影响的数值模拟研究。热带气象学报。2000，2，18-26。
[19]徐建军，朱乾根。印度洋-太平洋海温的气候模态及其年代际异常。海洋预报。1998，2，10-18。
[20]肖子牛，孙绩华，李崇银。ElNino期间印度洋海温异常对亚洲气候的影响。大气科学。2000，7，461-468
[21]晏红明，琚建华，肖子牛。ENSO循环的两个不同位相期印度洋海表温度异常的特征分析。南京气象学院学报。2001，6，242-248。
[22]吴国雄，孟文。赤道印度洋-太平洋海气系统的齿轮式藕合和ENSO事件。大气科学。1998，7，470-479。
[23]晏红明，肖子牛，谢应齐。近50年热带印度洋海温距平场的时空特征分析。气候与环境研究。2000，6，180-188。
[24]Zhang Y., JOHN M. WALLACE, AND DAVID S. BATTIST,1997, ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900-93, J Climate, 10, 1004-1020
[25]Hskins.B.J.andT.Ambrizzi,Rossby wave propagation on a realistic longitudinally varying flow.J.Atmos.Sci, 1993,50,1661 - 1671
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