A股上市公司股利政策影响因素分行业研究
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摘要
股利政策是现代公司理财活动的三大核心之一，也被认为是当代理财学上的一个难解之谜。股利政策影响因素的研究是股利政策理论研究的重要分支。其研究目的在于使股利政策成为公司管理层与公司其他各个相关利益人之间都可以理解的“语言”，从而降低信息不对称的危害程度。在目前的技术水平下，还无法获得具体公司股利政策的影响因素。通过统计学的方法，从一组公司中发现共有的规律，可以在一定程度上克服信息不对称的危害。但是，除非所有公司的股利政策影响因素相同，否则运用统计学方法所得的结果，必然与某个具体公司股利政策的实际影响因素存在“偏离”。为了将这种“偏离”控制在最小范围，本文分别以各个行业的上市公司为研究样本，寻找影响各个行业上市公司股利政策的因素(考虑到t检验时样本量不小于30的要求，本文只研究影响是否发放现金股利的因素和影响现金股利发放水平的因素)，并与以全体上市公司为研究样本所得到的结果进行比较，考察是否有区别，区别是否显著，从而判断分行业研究股利政策是否有意义。本文将分以下五章。
第一章，引言。本章阐述分行业研究股利政策影响因素的目的。
第二章，文献回顾。本章对西方经典研究、香港和台湾地区研究成果以及我国大陆现有研究成果进行回顾。
第三章，研究设计。本章描述分别以各个行业的上市公司为样本和以全体上市公司为样本进行实证分析的样本选取、研究方法、研究假设、解释变量。
第四章，数据处理。本章运用多元线性回归的方法，分别获得了影响各个行业以及全体上市公司是否发放现金股利的因素和现金股利发放水平的因素。
第五章，结论及思考。本章比较分析上述数据处理结果，发现以全体上市公司为样本研究时通过的解释变量数一般多于以各个行业的上市公司为样本研究时通过的解释变量数，以全体上市公司为样本研究时得到的R~2和R~2修正值一般小于以各个行业的上市公司为样本研究时得到的R~2和R~2修正值。另一方面，以全体上市公司为样本研究时通过的假设与以各个行业的上市公司为样本研究时通过的假设之间都有很大差异。由此，笔者认为，分行业研究股利政策影响因素
南京工业大学硕士学位论文
有意义。本章最后提出本文的后续研究建议。
Dividend policies, one of the three key elements in modern financial management, are considered a puzzling riddle of the modern financial management. The study on the affecting factors of dividend policies, as a vital branch of the dividend policies into the "language" that both the company's administrative staff and its holding shareholders understand, in order to lower the extend of harm brought by information imbalance. Through statistics, finding out the laws in common among a group of companies could overwhelmed the harm from information imbalance to some degree. However, unless each of the companies' affecting factors of the dividend policies equates with each other, the results through statistics must "diverge" from the real affecting factors of the dividend policies. To take charge of such "divergence" to a minimum, this thesis takes the listed companies of different professions as its research samples, seeks the affecting factors of the dividend policies on the companies of all professions (taking the requirement that the sample value should be no less than 30 in the t test into account, this thesis focuses only on the factors whether to pay cash dividend and the factors affecting the cash dividend paying levers) and then compares them with the results from the samples of the listed companies, and explores whether these are some distinctions existing and whether it is of significance to research dividend policies according to the profession that each company belongs to. This thesis is divided into 5chapters as follows:
Chapter 1, introduction. This chapter tells the purpose of researching the factors of dividend policies according to the companies' profession.
Chapter 2, literatures review. This chapter reviews the research achievement in the Hong Kong and Taiwan region and in the Mainland China as well as the western classic research.
Chapter 3, researches design. This chapter describes the research methods, research assumptions, and explanatory variables of positive analysis.
Chapter 4, data analyzes. By the diverse line returns to return, This chapter respectively obtains the factors that affect the listed companies at different professions or all the listed companies to pay the cash dividend and their cash dividend paying levels.
Chapter 5.conclusions and implications. This chapter compares the results of the data analysis above, and finds that the passed explanatory variables in the research sampling all the listed companies tend to exceed those in the research sampling the listed companies of different professions in numbers, the R2 and Adj.R2 in the research sampling all the listed companies tend to be less than those in the research sampling the listed companies of different professions. On the other hand, these are much diversity between the proved assumptions in the research sampling all the companies and those in the research sampling the listed companies of different professions. Therefore, the author considers that it is of importance to research dividend policies accounting to the companies' professions. At the end of this chapter, the author puts forward some suggestions on the topic's further study.
第一章，引言。本章阐述分行业研究股利政策影响因素的目的。
第二章，文献回顾。本章对西方经典研究、香港和台湾地区研究成果以及我国大陆现有研究成果进行回顾。
第三章，研究设计。本章描述分别以各个行业的上市公司为样本和以全体上市公司为样本进行实证分析的样本选取、研究方法、研究假设、解释变量。
第四章，数据处理。本章运用多元线性回归的方法，分别获得了影响各个行业以及全体上市公司是否发放现金股利的因素和现金股利发放水平的因素。
第五章，结论及思考。本章比较分析上述数据处理结果，发现以全体上市公司为样本研究时通过的解释变量数一般多于以各个行业的上市公司为样本研究时通过的解释变量数，以全体上市公司为样本研究时得到的R~2和R~2修正值一般小于以各个行业的上市公司为样本研究时得到的R~2和R~2修正值。另一方面，以全体上市公司为样本研究时通过的假设与以各个行业的上市公司为样本研究时通过的假设之间都有很大差异。由此，笔者认为，分行业研究股利政策影响因素
南京工业大学硕士学位论文
有意义。本章最后提出本文的后续研究建议。
Dividend policies, one of the three key elements in modern financial management, are considered a puzzling riddle of the modern financial management. The study on the affecting factors of dividend policies, as a vital branch of the dividend policies into the "language" that both the company's administrative staff and its holding shareholders understand, in order to lower the extend of harm brought by information imbalance. Through statistics, finding out the laws in common among a group of companies could overwhelmed the harm from information imbalance to some degree. However, unless each of the companies' affecting factors of the dividend policies equates with each other, the results through statistics must "diverge" from the real affecting factors of the dividend policies. To take charge of such "divergence" to a minimum, this thesis takes the listed companies of different professions as its research samples, seeks the affecting factors of the dividend policies on the companies of all professions (taking the requirement that the sample value should be no less than 30 in the t test into account, this thesis focuses only on the factors whether to pay cash dividend and the factors affecting the cash dividend paying levers) and then compares them with the results from the samples of the listed companies, and explores whether these are some distinctions existing and whether it is of significance to research dividend policies according to the profession that each company belongs to. This thesis is divided into 5chapters as follows:
Chapter 1, introduction. This chapter tells the purpose of researching the factors of dividend policies according to the companies' profession.
Chapter 2, literatures review. This chapter reviews the research achievement in the Hong Kong and Taiwan region and in the Mainland China as well as the western classic research.
Chapter 3, researches design. This chapter describes the research methods, research assumptions, and explanatory variables of positive analysis.
Chapter 4, data analyzes. By the diverse line returns to return, This chapter respectively obtains the factors that affect the listed companies at different professions or all the listed companies to pay the cash dividend and their cash dividend paying levels.
Chapter 5.conclusions and implications. This chapter compares the results of the data analysis above, and finds that the passed explanatory variables in the research sampling all the listed companies tend to exceed those in the research sampling the listed companies of different professions in numbers, the R2 and Adj.R2 in the research sampling all the listed companies tend to be less than those in the research sampling the listed companies of different professions. On the other hand, these are much diversity between the proved assumptions in the research sampling all the companies and those in the research sampling the listed companies of different professions. Therefore, the author considers that it is of importance to research dividend policies accounting to the companies' professions. At the end of this chapter, the author puts forward some suggestions on the topic's further study.
引文
1 刘星．股利决策新论．重庆：重庆大学出版社．1999．100-120
2 张朝宓，苏文兵．当代会计实证研究方法．大连：东北财经大学．2001．33-233
3 李常青．股利政策理论与实证研究．北京：中国人民大学出版社．2001．163-186
4 魏刚．中国上市公司股利分配研究．大连：东北财经大学．2001．117-190
5 詹姆斯·范霍恩．现代企业财务管理．北京：经济科学出版社．1998．123-150
6 蒋义宏，李树华．证券市场会计问题实证研究．上海：上海财经大学出版社．1998．78-125
7 刘树成等．中国资本市场前沿理论研究文集．北京：社会科学文献出版社．2000．126-198
8 吴世农．现代财务理论方法．北京：中国对外经济贸易出版社．1997．134-201
9 沈艺峰．资本结构理论史．北京：经济科学出版社．1999．86-142
10 沈艺峰．资金市场分析．北京：中国经济出版社．1995．78-135
11 沈艺峰．现代两方财务学：形成、演变及最新发展趋势．中国会计年鉴(1999)．北京：中国财政出版社．1999．200-215
12 中国会计教授会秘书处．中国会计教授会1995-1996年年会论文集．北京：中国财政经济出版社．1997．143-210
13 汤谷良．公司财务政策．北京：经济科学出版社．1996．301-346
14 汪平，刘兴云．公司理财原理．上海：上海财经大学出版社，1997．281-309
15 吕汝汉．香港的金融体系．北京：商务印书馆．1993．125-142
16 刘振亚．计量经济学教程．北京：中国人民出版社．1997．235-287
17 古扎拉蒂．计量经济学．北京：中国人民大学出版社．2000．50-305
18 罗斯·L 瓦茨，杰罗尔德·L 齐默尔曼 实证会计理论 大连：东北财经大学出版社．1999．198-217
19 阿斯瓦斯·达摩达兰．应用公司理财．北京：机械工业出版社．2000．259-298
20 罗伯特·C·希金斯．财务管理分析．北京：北京大学出版社．1998．264-308
21 格雷汉姆，多德．证券分析．海口：海南出版社．1999．265-298
22 罗斯，威斯特菲尔德和杰富．公司理财．北京：机械工业出版社．2000．174-206
23 L·R克莱因，T·W安德逊．经济计量学讲义．北京：航空工业出版社．1990．59-201
24 刘星，李豫湘．灰色关联度评价法在股利政策相关因素分析中的应用．系统工程理论与实践，1998(9)：78-81
25 吕长江，王克敏．上市公司股利政策的实证分析．经济研究．1999(12)：31-39
26 吕长江，王克敏．上市公司资本结构、股利分配及管理股权比例相互作用机制研究．会计研究．2002(3)：39-47
27 李志彤，陈敏．我国上市公司股利政策的影响因素分析及假设检验．现代财经．2001(10)：46-49
28 杨淑娥，王勇，白革萍．我国股利分配政策影响因素的实证分析．会计研究．2000(2)：31-34
29 陈国辉，赵春光．上市公司选择股利政策动因的实征研究．财经问题研究．2000(5)：48-56
30 李常青．我国上市公司股利政策现状及其成因分析．中国工业经济．1999(9)：22-26
31 魏刚．我国上市公司股利分配的实证研究．经济研究．1998(6)：30-36
32 赵春光，张雪丽，叶龙．股利政策：选择动因——来自我国证券市场的实证证据．财经研究．2001(2)：48-51
33 汤云为，陆建桥．论证券市场中的会计研究：发现与启示．经济研究1998(7)：50-59
34 张为国，徐宗宇．实证研究·会计选择·证券市场．会计研究．1997(10)：5-13
35 杨瑞龙，魏梦．市场不完全条件下的公司股利政策．上海经济研究．1999(4)：7-13
36 毛付根．西方企业的股利政策．外国经济与管理．1995(1)：43-44
37 夏霓．我国上市公司股利分配现状．资本．1998(2)：21-27
38 崔之元．美国29个州公司变革的理论背景．经济研究．1986(4)：25-33．
39 王化成．财务管理目标的国际化比较和我国企业的现实选择．财会月刊．2000(8)：9-12
40 林海．股利政策与上市公司收益的实证研究．世界经济．2000(5)：29-33
41 冯根福．我国上市公司资本结构形成的影响因素分析．经济学家．2000(5)：59-66
42 Chang, R.P and Ghon Rhee. The Impact of Person Taxes on Corporate Dividend Policy and Capital Structure Decisions. Financial Management, 1990
43 Fama, E.F., Efficient Capital Market: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance, 1970(5)
44 Fama, E.F., and Harvey Babiak., Dividend Policy: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of American Statistical Association. 63. 1968(11)
45 Graham,B. and Dodd, D. 1., Security Analysis: Principles and Techniques, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1991
46 Jensen, M. C. and Meckling, W. H., Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Cost, and Capital Structure. Journal of Financial Economics.Vol.3, No.4, 1976
47 Lintner, J. Distribution of Incomes of Corporations among Dividends, Retained Earnings and Taxes. American Economic Review. 46. 1956(5)
48 Crutchely, C. E. and Hansen, R. S., A Test of the Agency Theory of Managerial Ownership. Corporate Leverage and Corporate Dividends. Financial Management. Winter 1989.
49 Graham, H. P., Dividend Policy and its Relationship to Investment and Financial Policies: Empirical Evidence. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting. Winter 1985
50 Higgins, P..The Corporate Dividend-Saving Decision, Journal of Finance and Quantitative Analysis. 1972(3)
51 Kalay and Avner. The Behavior of Stock Price on the Ex-dividend Day: A Reexamination of the Clientele, Journal of Finance, 1982(9)
52 Smith, C., Jr. and Watts, R., The Investment Opportunity Set and Corporate Financing. Dividend and Compensation Policies. Journal of Finance Economics. 32(3). 1992
53 Sornnate, K., Agency Theory Problems and Their Catalytic Impact on the Formulation of an Organization's Financial Management Financing Management. UMI. 1989
54 William·R Scott Financial Accounting Theory. Prentice Halliternationallnc. 1997
2 张朝宓，苏文兵．当代会计实证研究方法．大连：东北财经大学．2001．33-233
3 李常青．股利政策理论与实证研究．北京：中国人民大学出版社．2001．163-186
4 魏刚．中国上市公司股利分配研究．大连：东北财经大学．2001．117-190
5 詹姆斯·范霍恩．现代企业财务管理．北京：经济科学出版社．1998．123-150
6 蒋义宏，李树华．证券市场会计问题实证研究．上海：上海财经大学出版社．1998．78-125
7 刘树成等．中国资本市场前沿理论研究文集．北京：社会科学文献出版社．2000．126-198
8 吴世农．现代财务理论方法．北京：中国对外经济贸易出版社．1997．134-201
9 沈艺峰．资本结构理论史．北京：经济科学出版社．1999．86-142
10 沈艺峰．资金市场分析．北京：中国经济出版社．1995．78-135
11 沈艺峰．现代两方财务学：形成、演变及最新发展趋势．中国会计年鉴(1999)．北京：中国财政出版社．1999．200-215
12 中国会计教授会秘书处．中国会计教授会1995-1996年年会论文集．北京：中国财政经济出版社．1997．143-210
13 汤谷良．公司财务政策．北京：经济科学出版社．1996．301-346
14 汪平，刘兴云．公司理财原理．上海：上海财经大学出版社，1997．281-309
15 吕汝汉．香港的金融体系．北京：商务印书馆．1993．125-142
16 刘振亚．计量经济学教程．北京：中国人民出版社．1997．235-287
17 古扎拉蒂．计量经济学．北京：中国人民大学出版社．2000．50-305
18 罗斯·L 瓦茨，杰罗尔德·L 齐默尔曼 实证会计理论 大连：东北财经大学出版社．1999．198-217
19 阿斯瓦斯·达摩达兰．应用公司理财．北京：机械工业出版社．2000．259-298
20 罗伯特·C·希金斯．财务管理分析．北京：北京大学出版社．1998．264-308
21 格雷汉姆，多德．证券分析．海口：海南出版社．1999．265-298
22 罗斯，威斯特菲尔德和杰富．公司理财．北京：机械工业出版社．2000．174-206
23 L·R克莱因，T·W安德逊．经济计量学讲义．北京：航空工业出版社．1990．59-201
24 刘星，李豫湘．灰色关联度评价法在股利政策相关因素分析中的应用．系统工程理论与实践，1998(9)：78-81
25 吕长江，王克敏．上市公司股利政策的实证分析．经济研究．1999(12)：31-39
26 吕长江，王克敏．上市公司资本结构、股利分配及管理股权比例相互作用机制研究．会计研究．2002(3)：39-47
27 李志彤，陈敏．我国上市公司股利政策的影响因素分析及假设检验．现代财经．2001(10)：46-49
28 杨淑娥，王勇，白革萍．我国股利分配政策影响因素的实证分析．会计研究．2000(2)：31-34
29 陈国辉，赵春光．上市公司选择股利政策动因的实征研究．财经问题研究．2000(5)：48-56
30 李常青．我国上市公司股利政策现状及其成因分析．中国工业经济．1999(9)：22-26
31 魏刚．我国上市公司股利分配的实证研究．经济研究．1998(6)：30-36
32 赵春光，张雪丽，叶龙．股利政策：选择动因——来自我国证券市场的实证证据．财经研究．2001(2)：48-51
33 汤云为，陆建桥．论证券市场中的会计研究：发现与启示．经济研究1998(7)：50-59
34 张为国，徐宗宇．实证研究·会计选择·证券市场．会计研究．1997(10)：5-13
35 杨瑞龙，魏梦．市场不完全条件下的公司股利政策．上海经济研究．1999(4)：7-13
36 毛付根．西方企业的股利政策．外国经济与管理．1995(1)：43-44
37 夏霓．我国上市公司股利分配现状．资本．1998(2)：21-27
38 崔之元．美国29个州公司变革的理论背景．经济研究．1986(4)：25-33．
39 王化成．财务管理目标的国际化比较和我国企业的现实选择．财会月刊．2000(8)：9-12
40 林海．股利政策与上市公司收益的实证研究．世界经济．2000(5)：29-33
41 冯根福．我国上市公司资本结构形成的影响因素分析．经济学家．2000(5)：59-66
42 Chang, R.P and Ghon Rhee. The Impact of Person Taxes on Corporate Dividend Policy and Capital Structure Decisions. Financial Management, 1990
43 Fama, E.F., Efficient Capital Market: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance, 1970(5)
44 Fama, E.F., and Harvey Babiak., Dividend Policy: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of American Statistical Association. 63. 1968(11)
45 Graham,B. and Dodd, D. 1., Security Analysis: Principles and Techniques, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1991
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