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川藏铁路然乌—通麦段冰湖溃决危险性模糊综合评价及应用
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摘要
川藏铁路然鸟—通麦段分布着大量的海洋性冰川,冰湖溃决是威胁该区段铁路安全和制约区域经济发展的主要地质灾害之一。本文针对川藏铁路然乌—通麦区段冰湖溃决灾害严峻的形势,利用MODIS地表温度数据和TRMM降雨数据弥补气象站点资料的匮乏,从影响冰湖溃决灾害的现代冰川特征、湖盆规模、气象参数、终碛坝参数、冰湖下游沟道特征5个方面选取了9个冰湖溃决危险性评估指标,应用模糊综合评价法对研究区冰湖溃决的危险性进行综合评价。结果表明,研究区内的130个冰湖中,高度危险的冰湖有10个,其中莫如弄巴的39号冰湖、拉普弄巴的83号冰湖、雪茹弄巴的50号冰湖、曲都弄巴的121号冰湖距离318国道和铁路线较近,一旦溃决可能会对道路形成一定的破坏;中度危险的冰湖有8个;低度危险的冰湖有2个;极低危险的冰湖有110个。评价的结果较好地反映了研究区内冰湖溃决的危险状况。在冰湖溃决危险性分析的基础上,提出川藏铁路然乌—通麦区段的铁路建设对策建议。
There are more than half of maritime glaciers in china concentration distributed in the Southeast Tibet.And at the same time,it is also a serious region suffered from hazards of glacier-lake outburst.So,the Southeast Tibet from Ranwu to Tongmai is selected as study area in this paper.Based on the MODIS land surface temperature product and TRMM precipitation data,9 factors which are accessible and convenient for quantitative are selected for assessing the risk of glacier-lake outburst from five characters concluding glacier,the scale of glacier-lakes,meteorological conditions,moraine dam parameters and downstream channel.Finally,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used for assessing the glacier-lake outburst hazard in the study area.According to the result,there are 130 glacier-lakes in total,10 of them are high hazardous,8 glacier-lakes are medium hazardous,2 glacier-lakes are low hazardous,and 110 glacier-lakes are extreme low hazardous.According to the analysis result,the evaluation results reflect the risk of glacier-lakes in Southeast Tibet,which can provide guidance and reference for disaster prevention in this area.
引文
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