摘要
本文在Mecikalski等人提出的八分法的基础上,利用FY-2G静止气象卫星数据,设计了以整个目标积云进行前后追踪的CI预警算法。并根据FY-2G静止气象卫星和GOES静止气象卫星在分辨率以及八分法研究区域上的差别,通过一系列实验对CI预警指标和其阈值进行调整和修改。然后利用北京大兴站雷达监测到北京北部和西部地区出现的强对流天气过程对CI预警结果进行验证分析,其结果表明:改进后的算法能够提前30分钟预警出京津地区的对流初生过程,说明了算法的可行性和有效性,为短时灾害性天气的预警提供理论支持。
Using Based on the eight-point method by Mecikalski et al and the FY-2G geostationary satellite data,the object tracking technology forecast convective initiation(CI) that is designed.the identify indicators and indicator thresholds were modified by a series of experiments because of the differences of resolution and study areas between the FY-2G and GOES tationary meteorological satellite.Then A convective weather event in Beijing-Tianjin regions are analyzed by the new method,and Using radar in Da Xing analysis the result,which shows that the new method can forecast CI~30 minutes in advance in Beijing-Tianjin region,which indicates the effectiveness and feasibility of the algorithm and provide theoretical support for short-term catastrophic weather warnings.
引文
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