青藏高原纳木错流域冰雪融水径流量估算
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摘要
冰川积雪是寒区固体水资源的重要组成部分,在全球气候变暖背景下,进行冰雪融水量的计算具有重要意义。本文以青藏高原纳木错流域为研究对象,近40年,纳木错流域气温增幅达到0.04℃/a,所对应的是流域冰川年退缩率达到1.12 km2/a,湖泊面积扩张速率达到2.1 km2/a。借助第1、2次中国冰川编目数据和MODIS遥感影像资料,基于水量平衡建立冰川体积-融水径流量经验公式(包括冰川区降水量、冰川消融量、蒸发量和融水径流量等参数),并采用SRM积雪消融模型(积雪覆盖衰减率、气温直减率、度日因子值和径流系数等参数),分别对纳木错流域内的冰川和积雪融水径流量进行估算,从而实现大尺度稀缺资料的高寒地区水文模拟。结果表明:纳木错流域年均冰川融水径流量是2.99亿m3/a,积雪融水径流量是8.10万m3/a,冰川融水量约是积雪融水量的38倍。通过比较纳木错流域气温升高、冰川退缩和湖泊扩张之间的关系,纳木错湖泊增加水量约为流域内冰川融水径流量的80%,远高于季节性积雪融水的补给量;因此,可以推测随着气候变暖,纳木错流域东南侧念青唐古拉山大面积冰川的急剧消融,是造成纳木错湖泊扩张的重要原因之一。
[Background]Glacier and snowcover are the key parts of solid water resources in high alpine region,quantitative calculation of meltwater is of significance. Based on the data from the First and Second Glacier Inventory of China,the glacier area in Nam Co basin has shrunk 13. 44 km2 at a rate of1. 12 km2/ a in ten years. From the MODIS data( MOD10A2),the seasonal snow produced a large number of meltwater into Nam Co Lake. In the past forty years,the temperature increased at 0. 04 ℃ / a,the solid water resources( glacier) reduced by 111. 73 × 108m3,and the lake area increased nearly 100km2 at rate of 2. 1 km2/ a. However,the correlation between temperature rising,glacier melting and lakeexpansion is not yet clear in Nam Co basin of the Tibetan Plateau,thus it was selected as the study area,where is covered with glaciers( 141. 88 km2) and snow( 20%),aiming to better understand the hydrological processes in the high alpine region under the background of global warming. [Methods]The empirical equation was presented to quantify the meltwater amount from glacier on the basis of water balance theory. Empirical values were set for the variations in the equation,including the precipitation( 406. 70 mm),the evaporation( 100. 50 mm). The glacier ablation was calculated on the basis of the glacier volume variation. The Snowmelt Runoff Model( SRM) was used to calculate the runoff amount from snow melting in the Nam Co basin,using the Win SRM Version 1. 11 software. The feasibility of the SRM was discussed and analyzed. The parameters of the SRM,including the degree day factor,runoff coefficient,lapse rate of temperature,recession coefficients and air temperature,were tested in Nam Co basin using the hydrological data,meteorological data and MODIS remote sensing data( MOD10A2).[Results] The results showed that the empirical equation and the SRM model could be used for the calculation of the meltwater runoff amount from glacier and seasonal snow in Nam Co basin. The calculated annual glacier meltwater runoff was 49. 15 mm / a( 2. 99 × 108m3/ a),and the annual snow meltwater runoff was 8. 10 × 106m3/ a. The glacier meltwater runoff was almost 38 times that of the seasonal snow. This meant the glacier meltwater was dominant water resources in the Nam Co basin. The lake area was enlarged with the glacier shrinking when temperature increased. The increased water amount with the lake expansion was nearly 80% of the calculated runoff amount from glacier melting,far more than the calculated meltwater runoff from the seasonal snow. [Conclusions]It is deduced that the dramatic glacier melting in the Nyainqentanglha Mountains at the southeast side of Nam Co basin may be the most important drive factor for the lake expansion in the study area. However,more measurement should be conducted in the high alpine region to improve the accuracy of the calculated results by SRM.Moreover,the correlation between the glacier shrink and the lake expansion should be further investigated.
[Background]Glacier and snowcover are the key parts of solid water resources in high alpine region,quantitative calculation of meltwater is of significance. Based on the data from the First and Second Glacier Inventory of China,the glacier area in Nam Co basin has shrunk 13. 44 km2 at a rate of1. 12 km2/ a in ten years. From the MODIS data( MOD10A2),the seasonal snow produced a large number of meltwater into Nam Co Lake. In the past forty years,the temperature increased at 0. 04 ℃ / a,the solid water resources( glacier) reduced by 111. 73 × 108m3,and the lake area increased nearly 100km2 at rate of 2. 1 km2/ a. However,the correlation between temperature rising,glacier melting and lakeexpansion is not yet clear in Nam Co basin of the Tibetan Plateau,thus it was selected as the study area,where is covered with glaciers( 141. 88 km2) and snow( 20%),aiming to better understand the hydrological processes in the high alpine region under the background of global warming. [Methods]The empirical equation was presented to quantify the meltwater amount from glacier on the basis of water balance theory. Empirical values were set for the variations in the equation,including the precipitation( 406. 70 mm),the evaporation( 100. 50 mm). The glacier ablation was calculated on the basis of the glacier volume variation. The Snowmelt Runoff Model( SRM) was used to calculate the runoff amount from snow melting in the Nam Co basin,using the Win SRM Version 1. 11 software. The feasibility of the SRM was discussed and analyzed. The parameters of the SRM,including the degree day factor,runoff coefficient,lapse rate of temperature,recession coefficients and air temperature,were tested in Nam Co basin using the hydrological data,meteorological data and MODIS remote sensing data( MOD10A2).[Results] The results showed that the empirical equation and the SRM model could be used for the calculation of the meltwater runoff amount from glacier and seasonal snow in Nam Co basin. The calculated annual glacier meltwater runoff was 49. 15 mm / a( 2. 99 × 108m3/ a),and the annual snow meltwater runoff was 8. 10 × 106m3/ a. The glacier meltwater runoff was almost 38 times that of the seasonal snow. This meant the glacier meltwater was dominant water resources in the Nam Co basin. The lake area was enlarged with the glacier shrinking when temperature increased. The increased water amount with the lake expansion was nearly 80% of the calculated runoff amount from glacier melting,far more than the calculated meltwater runoff from the seasonal snow. [Conclusions]It is deduced that the dramatic glacier melting in the Nyainqentanglha Mountains at the southeast side of Nam Co basin may be the most important drive factor for the lake expansion in the study area. However,more measurement should be conducted in the high alpine region to improve the accuracy of the calculated results by SRM.Moreover,the correlation between the glacier shrink and the lake expansion should be further investigated.
引文
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