地震预警系统的效能评估和社会效益分析
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摘要
本文从地震预警系统可减少的人员伤亡和可挽回的经济损失两个角度出发,研究了地震预警系统的效能和社会效益.通过对兰州市及周边地区潜在震源各个震级档的年平均发生概率进行计算,并结合以兰州市为中心布设的80个强震预警台站信息,计算了有效的预警时间及地震烈度.基于生命易损性模型方法,计算了地震预警系统可减少的人员伤亡系数;采用基于宏观GDP的损失评估方法,计算了地震预警系统可减少的经济损失,分析了地震预警系统的社会效益.计算结果表明:减小地震预警盲区范围对提高地震预警系统的效能非常关键;地震预警系统的建设和台网布局应重点考虑布设区域的人口密度、经济情况及地震发生概率.
This paper focuses on the study on the effectiveness of earthquake early warning system and social benefits from the perspective of earthquake early warning system's reducing the casualties and the economic losses.Based on the calculation results of the annual average occurrence probability of potential earthquakes in each magnitude grade in Lanzhou city and its surrounding areas,we calculated the effective warning time and seismic intensity by using the data from 80 earthquake early warning stations in Lanzhou region.Based on the life-vulnerability model,we calculated the casualties coefficient by the early warning system,and then calculated the economic losses by the macro GDP loss assessment method.The results show that it is crucial for improving the efficiency of earthquake early warning to minimize the scope of blind areas.The construction of earthquake early warning system and the layout of station network should focus on the population density,the economic situation and the probability of earthquake occurrence of the layout areas.
This paper focuses on the study on the effectiveness of earthquake early warning system and social benefits from the perspective of earthquake early warning system's reducing the casualties and the economic losses.Based on the calculation results of the annual average occurrence probability of potential earthquakes in each magnitude grade in Lanzhou city and its surrounding areas,we calculated the effective warning time and seismic intensity by using the data from 80 earthquake early warning stations in Lanzhou region.Based on the life-vulnerability model,we calculated the casualties coefficient by the early warning system,and then calculated the economic losses by the macro GDP loss assessment method.The results show that it is crucial for improving the efficiency of earthquake early warning to minimize the scope of blind areas.The construction of earthquake early warning system and the layout of station network should focus on the population density,the economic situation and the probability of earthquake occurrence of the layout areas.
引文
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郭凯.2012.地震预警系统应用及风险分析[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所:61--70.Guo K.2012.Application and Risk Analysis of Earthquake Early Warning System[D].Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration:61--70(in Chinese).
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肖亮,俞言祥.2011.中国西部地区地震烈度衰减关系[J].震灾防御技术,6(4):358--371.Xiao L,Yu Y X.2011.Earthquake intensity attenuation relationship in western China[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,6(4):358--371(in Chinese).
尹之潜.1991.地震灾害损失预测研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,11(4):87--96.Yin Z Q.1991.A study for predicting earthquake disaster loss[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,11 (4):87--96(in Chinese).
钟江荣,张令心,赵振东,范开洪.2011.基于GIS的城市地震建筑物次生火灾蔓延模型[J].自然灾害学报,20(4):16--21.Zhong J R,Zhang L X,Zhao Z D,Fan K H.2011.GIS-based spread model of urban seismic secondary fire of buildings[J].Journal of Natural Disaster,20(4):16--21(in Chinese).
Allen R M,Kanamori H.2003.The potential for earthquake early warning in southern California[J].Science,300(5620):786--789.
Brown H M,Allen R M,Grasso V F.2009.Testing ElarmS in Japan[J].Seismol Res Lett,80(5):727--739.
Brown H M,Allen R M,Hellweg M,Khainovski O,Neuhauser D,Souf A.2011.Development of the ElarmS metho dology for earthquake early warning:Realtime application in California and offline testing in Japan[J].Soil Dyn Earthq Eng,31(2):188--200.
Erdik M,Fahjan Y,Ozel O,Alcik H,Mert A,Gul M.2003.Istanbul earthquake rapid response and the early warning system[J].Bull Earthq Eng,1(1):157--163.
Suárez G,Novelo D,Mansilla E.2009.Performance evaluation of the seismic alert system(SAS)in Mexico city:A seismological and a social perspective[J].Seismol Res Lett,80(5):707--716.
高孟潭.1993.关于地震带震级概率分布与潜在震源区震级概率分布关系的讨论[J].中国地震,9(1):15--19.Gao M T.1993.Discussion about the relationship between the probabilistic distribution of magnitude in seismic province and that distribution in seismic potential area[J].Earthquake Research in China,9(1):15--19(in Chinese).
郭凯.2012.地震预警系统应用及风险分析[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所:61--70.Guo K.2012.Application and Risk Analysis of Earthquake Early Warning System[D].Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration:61--70(in Chinese).
胡聿贤.2007.地震安全性评价技术教程[M].北京:地震出版社:130--152.Hu Y X.2007.Tutorial of Seismic Safety Evalution[M].Beijing:Seismological Press:130--152(in Chinese).
黄玮琼,吴宣.2006.地震危险性分析中几个重要环节的关联性[J].地震学报,28(3):269--276.Huang W Q,Wu X.2006.Interrelation among several important links in seismic risk analysis[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,28(3):269--276(in Chinese).
李俊.2009.以Google Earth为平台,基于GDP、人口与场地效应的全球大震损失评估模型[D].合肥:中国科学技术大学:111--124.Li J.2009.Global Strong Earthquake Loss Estimating Modle Based on GDP,Population and Site Correction in Google Earth[D].Hefei:University of Science and Technology of China:111--124(in Chinese).
刘吉夫,陈颙,史培军,陈晋.2009.中国大陆地震风险分析模型研究(Ⅱ):生命易损性模型[J].北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,45(4):404--407.Liu J F,Chen Y,Shi P J,Chen J.2009.A study on seismic risk assessment in mainland China(Ⅱ):Life vulnerability model[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University:Natural Science,45(4):404--407(in Chinese).
林均岐,钟江荣.2003.区域地震间接经济损失评估[J].自然灾害学报,16(4):139--142.Lin J Q,Zhong J R.2003.Assessment of seismic indirect economic loss in regions[J].Journal of Natural Disaster,16 (4):139--142(in Chinese).
孙柏涛,胡少卿.2005.基于已有震害矩阵模拟的群体震害预测方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,25(6):102--108.Sun B T,Hu S Q.2005.A method for earthquake damage prediction of building group based on existing earthquake damage matrix[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,25(6):102--108(in Chinese).
汪素云,俞言祥,高阿甲,阎秀杰.2000.中国分区地震动衰减关系的确定[J].中国地震,16(2):99--106.Wang S Y,Yu Y X,Gao A J,Yan X J.2000.Development of attenuation relations for ground motion in China[J].Earthquake Research in China,16(2):99--106(in Chinese).
夏玉胜,杨丽萍.2000.地震预警(报)系统及减灾效益研究[J].西北地震学报,22(4):452--457.Xia Y S,Yang L P.2000.On earthquake prediction(warning)system and its disaster reduction benefit[J].Northwes tern Seismological Journal,22(4):452--457(in Chinese).
肖亮,俞言祥.2011.中国西部地区地震烈度衰减关系[J].震灾防御技术,6(4):358--371.Xiao L,Yu Y X.2011.Earthquake intensity attenuation relationship in western China[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,6(4):358--371(in Chinese).
尹之潜.1991.地震灾害损失预测研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,11(4):87--96.Yin Z Q.1991.A study for predicting earthquake disaster loss[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,11 (4):87--96(in Chinese).
钟江荣,张令心,赵振东,范开洪.2011.基于GIS的城市地震建筑物次生火灾蔓延模型[J].自然灾害学报,20(4):16--21.Zhong J R,Zhang L X,Zhao Z D,Fan K H.2011.GIS-based spread model of urban seismic secondary fire of buildings[J].Journal of Natural Disaster,20(4):16--21(in Chinese).
Allen R M,Kanamori H.2003.The potential for earthquake early warning in southern California[J].Science,300(5620):786--789.
Brown H M,Allen R M,Grasso V F.2009.Testing ElarmS in Japan[J].Seismol Res Lett,80(5):727--739.
Brown H M,Allen R M,Hellweg M,Khainovski O,Neuhauser D,Souf A.2011.Development of the ElarmS metho dology for earthquake early warning:Realtime application in California and offline testing in Japan[J].Soil Dyn Earthq Eng,31(2):188--200.
Erdik M,Fahjan Y,Ozel O,Alcik H,Mert A,Gul M.2003.Istanbul earthquake rapid response and the early warning system[J].Bull Earthq Eng,1(1):157--163.
Suárez G,Novelo D,Mansilla E.2009.Performance evaluation of the seismic alert system(SAS)in Mexico city:A seismological and a social perspective[J].Seismol Res Lett,80(5):707--716.
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