城市入境旅游及客源市场的季节性特征研究——基于上海的实证分析
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摘要
季节性是入境旅游的典型特征之一,对城市旅游业发展具有重要影响。客源地多样性增加了入境旅游淡旺季平衡的复杂度。深刻理解入境旅游在客源结构方面的季节性特征可以帮助管理部门提出有针对性的市场开发措施,有效应对入境旅游季节性带来的产业失衡问题。文章以上海2004—2016年的入境旅游月度数据为样本,采用季节性调整和聚类分析等方法对上海入境旅游的总体季节性以及不同客源市场的季节性特征进行了研究。首先,采用X-12-ARIMA调整方法对上海入境旅游的总体季节性特征进行了分析。其次,分别对19个客源地的季节性特征进行了识别,并基于淡季和旺季两个维度探讨了不同客源地之间季节性的差异性与相似性。然后,以12个月度季节性因子为维度,采用层次聚类法对19个客源地进行了聚类分析,并对不同类型客源地的季节性成因进行了剖析。最后,提出了上海入境旅游开发的对策与建议。研究发现,虽然不同的客源地在淡旺季分布上存在差异和交叉,但基本与上海的气候舒适度特点相吻合,即旺季主要分布在气候舒适度较高的月份,而淡季月份的气候舒适度则较低。研究结果同样对其他城市入境旅游发展具有启示作用。
As an effective means to enhance international awareness, increase foreign exchange earnings and promote development of tourism economy, inbound tourism plays an important role in urban development. Due to influences of natural environment, climatic conditions, social economy and unexpected events, Shanghai inbound tourism has been facing imbalances in number of tourists, tourists expenditure, tourism employment and infrastructure utilization. Seasonality has important impact on inbound tourism of Shanghai. The diversity of tourist source markets of inbound tourism increases the complexity of balancing peak and off seasons. A deep understanding of seasonal characteristics of inbound tourism and relevant source markets could help decision makers to propose more targeted measures that can effectively resolve problems of industrial imbalances.Using monthly data of Shanghai inbound tourism from 2004 to 2016 as a sample, the current article explores seasonality of Shanghai inbound tourism from the perspective of tourist source structure based on methods of seasonal adjustment and cluster analysis. Firstly, the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method is used to analyze seasonal characteristics of overall inbound tourism of Shanghai. Secondly, seasonality of each tourist source area is identified. Then, using 12 monthly seasonal factors as dimensions, the cluster analysis is applied to classify source markets and causes of seasonality for each cluster are analyzed. Finally, implications and suggestions for increasing tourists flow in low seasons are proposed.It is found that inbound tourism of Shanghai shows obvious seasonal fluctuations. Although differences and intersections exist, the distribution of off and peak seasons of inbound tourism basically conforms to characteristics of climate comfort, that is, the peak seasons mainly distribute in months with higher climate comfort, while the off-season climate comfort is lower. Specifically, peak seasons of inbound tourism in Shanghai are April, September, October and November, while low seasons include January, February and December. The rest can be regarded as shoulder seasons. One exception is that December is the peak season for tourists from Singapore and Malaysia. Overall, the average fluctuation in off seasons is significantly greater than the fluctuation in peak seasons, and has become more and more serious in recent years. After considering annual seasonal factors, 19 source regions,including Hong Kong(China), Macao(China), Taiwan(China), Japan, Philippines, Singapore,Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, United States, Canada, United Kingdom, France,Germany, Italy, Russia, Australia and New Zealand, could be classified into five types: Stable, Risky,Ideal, Weak and Potential.According to overall seasonal characteristics of Shanghai inbound tourism, seasonality and market share of each source region, relevant countermeasures and suggestions for developing Shanghai's inbound tourism are put forward. Shanghai should attach importance to business of events and festivals,meetings and exhibitions, industrial and heritage tourism, and enhance attractiveness and awareness of off-season tourism. For example, existing festivals and activities such as Shanghai International Fashion Culture Festival, Shanghai International Flower Festival, F1 Shanghai Station Event, Shanghai International Tea Culture Festival, Shanghai International Music Festival, Shanghai International Film Festival, Shanghai Tourism Festival, Shanghai International Art Festival, Shanghai Art Expo and Shanghai International Automobile Exhibition, could be arranged in shoulder or off seasons. In addition, according to characteristics of seasonality and tourists in each source region, Shanghai should enhance off-season passenger flow by strengthening tourism cooperation with other regions, organizing tourism festivals, attending tourism promotion conferences, enhancing publicity with the help of network platform and social media, increasing inbound low-cost carriers(LCCs), etc. The research procedure and results of this paper also have implications for developing inbound tourism in other cities.
As an effective means to enhance international awareness, increase foreign exchange earnings and promote development of tourism economy, inbound tourism plays an important role in urban development. Due to influences of natural environment, climatic conditions, social economy and unexpected events, Shanghai inbound tourism has been facing imbalances in number of tourists, tourists expenditure, tourism employment and infrastructure utilization. Seasonality has important impact on inbound tourism of Shanghai. The diversity of tourist source markets of inbound tourism increases the complexity of balancing peak and off seasons. A deep understanding of seasonal characteristics of inbound tourism and relevant source markets could help decision makers to propose more targeted measures that can effectively resolve problems of industrial imbalances.Using monthly data of Shanghai inbound tourism from 2004 to 2016 as a sample, the current article explores seasonality of Shanghai inbound tourism from the perspective of tourist source structure based on methods of seasonal adjustment and cluster analysis. Firstly, the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method is used to analyze seasonal characteristics of overall inbound tourism of Shanghai. Secondly, seasonality of each tourist source area is identified. Then, using 12 monthly seasonal factors as dimensions, the cluster analysis is applied to classify source markets and causes of seasonality for each cluster are analyzed. Finally, implications and suggestions for increasing tourists flow in low seasons are proposed.It is found that inbound tourism of Shanghai shows obvious seasonal fluctuations. Although differences and intersections exist, the distribution of off and peak seasons of inbound tourism basically conforms to characteristics of climate comfort, that is, the peak seasons mainly distribute in months with higher climate comfort, while the off-season climate comfort is lower. Specifically, peak seasons of inbound tourism in Shanghai are April, September, October and November, while low seasons include January, February and December. The rest can be regarded as shoulder seasons. One exception is that December is the peak season for tourists from Singapore and Malaysia. Overall, the average fluctuation in off seasons is significantly greater than the fluctuation in peak seasons, and has become more and more serious in recent years. After considering annual seasonal factors, 19 source regions,including Hong Kong(China), Macao(China), Taiwan(China), Japan, Philippines, Singapore,Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, United States, Canada, United Kingdom, France,Germany, Italy, Russia, Australia and New Zealand, could be classified into five types: Stable, Risky,Ideal, Weak and Potential.According to overall seasonal characteristics of Shanghai inbound tourism, seasonality and market share of each source region, relevant countermeasures and suggestions for developing Shanghai's inbound tourism are put forward. Shanghai should attach importance to business of events and festivals,meetings and exhibitions, industrial and heritage tourism, and enhance attractiveness and awareness of off-season tourism. For example, existing festivals and activities such as Shanghai International Fashion Culture Festival, Shanghai International Flower Festival, F1 Shanghai Station Event, Shanghai International Tea Culture Festival, Shanghai International Music Festival, Shanghai International Film Festival, Shanghai Tourism Festival, Shanghai International Art Festival, Shanghai Art Expo and Shanghai International Automobile Exhibition, could be arranged in shoulder or off seasons. In addition, according to characteristics of seasonality and tourists in each source region, Shanghai should enhance off-season passenger flow by strengthening tourism cooperation with other regions, organizing tourism festivals, attending tourism promotion conferences, enhancing publicity with the help of network platform and social media, increasing inbound low-cost carriers(LCCs), etc. The research procedure and results of this paper also have implications for developing inbound tourism in other cities.
引文
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