中东地缘政治格局演变及对我国能源安全影响
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摘要
中东地区长期是世界能源地缘政治的焦点地区。当前中东地缘政治格局仍处于深刻变动进程中,具体表现在域内外大国间的影响力对比变化及各种力量的分化组合。中东地缘政治格局演变将对我国的能源安全产生重要影响。在国际能源价格方面,短期内中东地缘政治冲突导致石油供应大幅减少的可能性较低,页岩油产量增加也可抵消有可能出现的中东石油供应量下降,基本不会出现油价大幅上涨的情况。中期或许会出现页岩油增加的供应量无法抵消地缘政治冲突导致的中东常规石油减少的供应量之状况,引发国际油价较大幅度上涨。在国际能源投资方面,中东地缘政治格局演变导致多国进一步开放油气领域的外部投资限制。我国应抓住机遇扩大在中东油气上游的投资规模,同时科学评估中东地缘政治冲突,合理布局能源投资以规避风险。
The Middle East has long been the focus of global energy and geopolitical concerns. Currently, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is in a profound change, featuring the change of influence contrast among powers within the region and the major powers of the world as well as realignment of various forces. The evolution of geopolitical landscape in the Middle East will exert a major impact on China's energy security. With regard to the international oil prices, from a short-term point of view, as the likelihood of a drastic reduction of oil supply wrought by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East is small, coupled with the fact that the increase of shale oil production may offset the possible reduction of oil output in the Middle East, it is basically unlikely that the international oil prices will soar up. From a medium-term perspective, it is likely that the increase of shale oil production could not offset the reduction of oil production in the Middle East due to regional geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which will send the international oil prices up drastically. With regard to the international energy investment, the evolution of geopolitical landscape in the Middle East has resulted in quite many regional countries further opening up to foreign oil and gas investment. Therefore, China should take this opportunity to increase it upstream oil and gas investment in the Middle East, while scientifically assessing the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and rationally planning its investment there to evade risks.
The Middle East has long been the focus of global energy and geopolitical concerns. Currently, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is in a profound change, featuring the change of influence contrast among powers within the region and the major powers of the world as well as realignment of various forces. The evolution of geopolitical landscape in the Middle East will exert a major impact on China's energy security. With regard to the international oil prices, from a short-term point of view, as the likelihood of a drastic reduction of oil supply wrought by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East is small, coupled with the fact that the increase of shale oil production may offset the possible reduction of oil output in the Middle East, it is basically unlikely that the international oil prices will soar up. From a medium-term perspective, it is likely that the increase of shale oil production could not offset the reduction of oil production in the Middle East due to regional geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which will send the international oil prices up drastically. With regard to the international energy investment, the evolution of geopolitical landscape in the Middle East has resulted in quite many regional countries further opening up to foreign oil and gas investment. Therefore, China should take this opportunity to increase it upstream oil and gas investment in the Middle East, while scientifically assessing the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and rationally planning its investment there to evade risks.
引文
[1] British Petroleum,BP Energy Outlook 2035, May 18,2015, http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/energy-outlook-2015/Energy_Outlook_2035_booklet.pdf,P.10.
[1]孔祥永:《地缘政治视角下的美国石油安全战略》,载《世界经济与政治》2012年第3期,第32页。
[1]许勤华:《后石油时代的中东新地缘政治博弈》,中国财经网,2013年9月23日,http://finance.china.com.cn/roll/20130923/1828768.shtml。
[2]李兴:《美俄中东能源战略比较分析》,载《国际观察》2009年第4期,第43页。
[1]戴维·加德纳:《特朗普缺乏中东战略使得伊朗受益》, FT中文网,2018年10月8 日,http://www1.ftchinese.com/story/001079654?archive。
[1]李亚男:《转向的土耳其——雄心与困境》,载《现代国际关系》 2017年第7期,第12页。
[1]孙德刚:《土耳其政局与未来中东地区格局》,中国社会科学网,2016年8月11日,http://www.cssn.cn/zzx/201608/t20160811_3158377.shtml。
[2]牛新春:《解体的中东:重回“弱主权时代”》,载《现代国际关系》2017年第7期,第4页。
[1] IEA,“Preview of World Energy Outlook 2018,”June 4,2018,https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/june/weo-2018.html.
[2] Michal Meidan, Rosealea Yao,“How China Will Gain From Low Oil Prices,” China Economic Quarterly, March 2015,P.25.
[1]郭嘉沂、付晓芸:《中东与油价的相爱相杀——地缘政治与油价专题》,华尔街见闻,2018年1月19日,https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3058210。
[1] Amy Myers Jaffe,Jareer Elass,“War and the Oil Price Cycle,”Journal of International Affairs Vol. 69, No. 1(Fall/Winter 2015).
[2] OPEC:《全球能源展望2018》,https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/340.htm。
[3]杨安、董硕:《页岩油产量爆发带来供应端囚徒困境,OPEC减产协议能否再次“逆天改命”?》,凤凰网,2018年11月14日,http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20181114/16570458_0.shtml。
[1]田春荣:《2015年中国石油进出口状况分析》,载《国际石油经济》2016年第3期,第46页。
[1]“Saudi Aramco Eyes$334bn Investment by 2025”,September 27,2016,http://www.Aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/saudi-aramco-eyes-334bn-investment-2025-160926141352702.html.
[2]薛庆:《卡塔尔石油公司:外交危机下的一张底牌》,载《能源评论》2017年第9期,第69页。
[1]邓雅蔓:《阿布扎比:考虑给予中国公司石油上游开发特许权》,中国能源网,2018年2月9日,http://www.cnenergy.org/yq/sy/201802/t20180209_450790.html。
[1]孔祥永:《地缘政治视角下的美国石油安全战略》,载《世界经济与政治》2012年第3期,第32页。
[1]许勤华:《后石油时代的中东新地缘政治博弈》,中国财经网,2013年9月23日,http://finance.china.com.cn/roll/20130923/1828768.shtml。
[2]李兴:《美俄中东能源战略比较分析》,载《国际观察》2009年第4期,第43页。
[1]戴维·加德纳:《特朗普缺乏中东战略使得伊朗受益》, FT中文网,2018年10月8 日,http://www1.ftchinese.com/story/001079654?archive。
[1]李亚男:《转向的土耳其——雄心与困境》,载《现代国际关系》 2017年第7期,第12页。
[1]孙德刚:《土耳其政局与未来中东地区格局》,中国社会科学网,2016年8月11日,http://www.cssn.cn/zzx/201608/t20160811_3158377.shtml。
[2]牛新春:《解体的中东:重回“弱主权时代”》,载《现代国际关系》2017年第7期,第4页。
[1] IEA,“Preview of World Energy Outlook 2018,”June 4,2018,https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/june/weo-2018.html.
[2] Michal Meidan, Rosealea Yao,“How China Will Gain From Low Oil Prices,” China Economic Quarterly, March 2015,P.25.
[1]郭嘉沂、付晓芸:《中东与油价的相爱相杀——地缘政治与油价专题》,华尔街见闻,2018年1月19日,https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3058210。
[1] Amy Myers Jaffe,Jareer Elass,“War and the Oil Price Cycle,”Journal of International Affairs Vol. 69, No. 1(Fall/Winter 2015).
[2] OPEC:《全球能源展望2018》,https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/340.htm。
[3]杨安、董硕:《页岩油产量爆发带来供应端囚徒困境,OPEC减产协议能否再次“逆天改命”?》,凤凰网,2018年11月14日,http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20181114/16570458_0.shtml。
[1]田春荣:《2015年中国石油进出口状况分析》,载《国际石油经济》2016年第3期,第46页。
[1]“Saudi Aramco Eyes$334bn Investment by 2025”,September 27,2016,http://www.Aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/saudi-aramco-eyes-334bn-investment-2025-160926141352702.html.
[2]薛庆:《卡塔尔石油公司:外交危机下的一张底牌》,载《能源评论》2017年第9期,第69页。
[1]邓雅蔓:《阿布扎比:考虑给予中国公司石油上游开发特许权》,中国能源网,2018年2月9日,http://www.cnenergy.org/yq/sy/201802/t20180209_450790.html。
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