我国财政政策对经济增长质量的动态效应分析
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摘要
本文首先基于混频动态因子模型测算我国的经济增长质量指数,进一步运用TVTP-MS-FAVAR模型分析了我国财政政策对经济增长质量的动态影响,结果表明:在经济质量快速增长阶段,积极的财政政策能提升经济增长质量,提高增值税、降低消费税为主,提高教科研支出、降低投资性支出为辅的财政政策利于维持经济质量快速增长;在经济质量适速增长阶段,增加财政支出和税收能提升经济增长质量,提高增值税和教科研支出为主,降低投资性支出和所得税为辅的财政政策利于提高经济增长质量。经济新常态下,政策当局应构建"总量调控+结构优化"双轮驱动的财政政策,助推经济迈向高质量发展。
This paper firstly measures the quality of China's economic growth based on the mixed-mix dynamic factor model, and further studies the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on the quality of economic growth. The results : First, the stage of rapid growth of economic quality, proactive fiscal polic can improve the quality of economic growth, value-added tax and redu consumption tax, education and scientific research expenditure and reduc investment expenditure, maintain rapid economic quality. Second, the stage of growth of economic quality, increasing fiscal expenditure and taxation can improve the quality of economic growth, value-added tax and education and scientific research expenditure, reduc investment expenditure and corporate and personal income tax, will be conducive to high-quality economic growth in China. Under the new economic normal, policy authorities should build a two-wheel drive fiscal policy of "aggregate regulation and structural optimization" to help the economy move toward high-quality development.
This paper firstly measures the quality of China's economic growth based on the mixed-mix dynamic factor model, and further studies the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on the quality of economic growth. The results : First, the stage of rapid growth of economic quality, proactive fiscal polic can improve the quality of economic growth, value-added tax and redu consumption tax, education and scientific research expenditure and reduc investment expenditure, maintain rapid economic quality. Second, the stage of growth of economic quality, increasing fiscal expenditure and taxation can improve the quality of economic growth, value-added tax and education and scientific research expenditure, reduc investment expenditure and corporate and personal income tax, will be conducive to high-quality economic growth in China. Under the new economic normal, policy authorities should build a two-wheel drive fiscal policy of "aggregate regulation and structural optimization" to help the economy move toward high-quality development.
引文
[1] 金碚.关于“高质量发展”的经济学研究[J].中国工业经济,2018,(4):5-18.
[2] Fusaro,M.A.,Dutkowsky D.H.What Explains Consumption in the Very Short-run?:Evidence from Checking Account Data[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2011,33(4):542-552.
[3] 王东京.经济全球化与中国的经济结构调整[J].管理世界,2017,(5):1-6.
[4] 郑挺国,黄佳祥.中国宏观经济下行区间的冲击来源及其差异性分析[J].世界经济,2016,(9):28-52.
[5] Sunaga,M.Endogenous Growth Cycles with Financial Intermediaries and Entrepreneurial Innovation[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2017,53:191-206.
[6] Genicot,G.,Ray D.Aspirations and Inequality[J].Econometrica,2017,85(2):489-519.
[7] 王艺明.经济增长与马克思主义视角下的收入和财富分配[J].经济研究,2017,(11):27-42.
[8] Muller,N.Z.,Mendelsohn R.,Nordhaus W.Environmental Accounting for Pollution in the United States Economy[J].The American Economic Review,2011,101(5):1649-1675.
[9] 陈诗一,陈登科.雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展[J].经济研究,2018,(2):20-34.
[10] 钞小静,任保平.中国经济增长质量的时序变化与地区差异分析[J].经济研究,2011,(4):26-40.
[11] 师博,任保平.中国省际经济高质量发展的测度与分析[J].经济问题,2018,(4):1-6.
[12] 杜爱国.中国经济高质量发展的制度逻辑与前景展望[J].学习与实践,2018,(7):5-13.
[13] 方红生,张军.中国财政政策非线性稳定效应:理论和证据[J].管理世界,2010,(2):10-24,186.
[14] Woodford,M.Optimal Monetary Stabilization Policy[J].Handbook of Monetary Economics,2010,(3):723-828.
[15] 吕炜,储德银.财政政策对私人消费需求的非线性效应:基于OECD跨国面板数据的经验分析[J].经济社会体制比较,2011,(1):79-87.
[16] 储德银,闫伟.财政政策对农村居民消费产生了非线性效应吗?[J].经济管理,2011,(10):167-173.
[17] 张淑翠.我国财政支出对经济增长非线性效应——基于省级面板数据的平滑转移模型实证分析[J].财经研究,2011,(8):135-144.
[18] 赵建国,李佳.财政社会保障支出的非线性经济增长效应研究[J].财政研究,2012,(9):51-54.
[19] 程风雨.贸易开放视角下的地区税收竞争与经济增长——来自中国的经验证据[J].财经论丛,2016,(5):11-19.
[20] 刘清杰,任德孝.中国地区间税收竞争刺激经济增长了吗[J].广东财经大学学报,2017,(4):92-103.
[21] 童大龙,何塞,储德银.我国税收政策对经济增长的非线性效应研究——基于总量与结构效应双重视角的实证分析[J].商业经济与管理,2015,(3):23-33.
[22] 卞志村,杨源源.结构性财政调控与新常态下财政工具选择[J].经济研究,2016,(3):66-80.
[23] 尚玉皇,郑挺国.中国金融形势指数混频测度及其预警行为研究[J].金融研究,2018,(3):21-35.
[24] Hamilton,J.D.A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle[J].Econometrica,1989,57(2):357-384.
[25] 魏婕,任保平.中国各地区经济增长质量指数的测度及其排序[J].经济学动态,2012,(4):27-33.
(1)税收中未包含资源税、房产税等,营业税虽已经取消,但鉴于它在税收中占有较大比重,分析中仍考虑营业税,但在总结结论时无需提及。
[2] Fusaro,M.A.,Dutkowsky D.H.What Explains Consumption in the Very Short-run?:Evidence from Checking Account Data[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2011,33(4):542-552.
[3] 王东京.经济全球化与中国的经济结构调整[J].管理世界,2017,(5):1-6.
[4] 郑挺国,黄佳祥.中国宏观经济下行区间的冲击来源及其差异性分析[J].世界经济,2016,(9):28-52.
[5] Sunaga,M.Endogenous Growth Cycles with Financial Intermediaries and Entrepreneurial Innovation[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2017,53:191-206.
[6] Genicot,G.,Ray D.Aspirations and Inequality[J].Econometrica,2017,85(2):489-519.
[7] 王艺明.经济增长与马克思主义视角下的收入和财富分配[J].经济研究,2017,(11):27-42.
[8] Muller,N.Z.,Mendelsohn R.,Nordhaus W.Environmental Accounting for Pollution in the United States Economy[J].The American Economic Review,2011,101(5):1649-1675.
[9] 陈诗一,陈登科.雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展[J].经济研究,2018,(2):20-34.
[10] 钞小静,任保平.中国经济增长质量的时序变化与地区差异分析[J].经济研究,2011,(4):26-40.
[11] 师博,任保平.中国省际经济高质量发展的测度与分析[J].经济问题,2018,(4):1-6.
[12] 杜爱国.中国经济高质量发展的制度逻辑与前景展望[J].学习与实践,2018,(7):5-13.
[13] 方红生,张军.中国财政政策非线性稳定效应:理论和证据[J].管理世界,2010,(2):10-24,186.
[14] Woodford,M.Optimal Monetary Stabilization Policy[J].Handbook of Monetary Economics,2010,(3):723-828.
[15] 吕炜,储德银.财政政策对私人消费需求的非线性效应:基于OECD跨国面板数据的经验分析[J].经济社会体制比较,2011,(1):79-87.
[16] 储德银,闫伟.财政政策对农村居民消费产生了非线性效应吗?[J].经济管理,2011,(10):167-173.
[17] 张淑翠.我国财政支出对经济增长非线性效应——基于省级面板数据的平滑转移模型实证分析[J].财经研究,2011,(8):135-144.
[18] 赵建国,李佳.财政社会保障支出的非线性经济增长效应研究[J].财政研究,2012,(9):51-54.
[19] 程风雨.贸易开放视角下的地区税收竞争与经济增长——来自中国的经验证据[J].财经论丛,2016,(5):11-19.
[20] 刘清杰,任德孝.中国地区间税收竞争刺激经济增长了吗[J].广东财经大学学报,2017,(4):92-103.
[21] 童大龙,何塞,储德银.我国税收政策对经济增长的非线性效应研究——基于总量与结构效应双重视角的实证分析[J].商业经济与管理,2015,(3):23-33.
[22] 卞志村,杨源源.结构性财政调控与新常态下财政工具选择[J].经济研究,2016,(3):66-80.
[23] 尚玉皇,郑挺国.中国金融形势指数混频测度及其预警行为研究[J].金融研究,2018,(3):21-35.
[24] Hamilton,J.D.A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle[J].Econometrica,1989,57(2):357-384.
[25] 魏婕,任保平.中国各地区经济增长质量指数的测度及其排序[J].经济学动态,2012,(4):27-33.
(1)税收中未包含资源税、房产税等,营业税虽已经取消,但鉴于它在税收中占有较大比重,分析中仍考虑营业税,但在总结结论时无需提及。
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