政策不确定性损害了中国经济的长期增长潜力吗?——来自企业创新行为的证据
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摘要
本文基于中国特有的不断改革变化的制度背景和政府对经济活动频繁干预的政策环境,利用2003—2014年间的2 476家上市公司样本,考察政策不确定性对企业创新行为的影响。研究发现,政策不确定性与企业的创新产出水平显著正相关,表明不确定的政策环境会激励企业尽早执行创新投资以获得未来的增长期权,从而促进了企业的创新活动。在考虑了潜在内生性问题和进行一系列稳健性检验后,该结论仍成立。进一步研究发现,当外部产品市场竞争越激烈、增长机会越多、创新难度越大时,政策不确定性对企业创新活动的正向促进作用越显著。本文还将政策不确定性指数分解为来自全球、国家和地方政府三个层面的政策不确定性,发现政策不确定性与企业创新之间的正向关系主要是由来自地方政府层面的政策不确定性驱动的。本文的研究为理解宏观经济政策环境对长期经济增长及社会福利的影响提供了新的视角。
Based on China's unique institutional background of continuous reform and the government's policy environment of frequent intervention in economic activities,this paper uses Chinese listed companies' data between 2003 and 2014 to examine the impact of policy uncertainty on corporate innovation.We show that policy uncertainty is significantly positive with the corporate innovation,indicating that an uncertain policy environment will encourage firms to implement innovative investments as early as possible to obtain future growth options,thus promote the corporate innovation.This result is robust to endogeneity and robustness tests.Further analysis reveals that the positive effect of policy uncertainty on innovation is more pronounced when the external product market is more competitive,when the growth opportunities are greater,or when the innovation is more difficult.Furthermore,we decompose the policy uncertainty index into three levels:global,national and local policy uncertainty,and find that the positive relationship between policy uncertainty and corporate innovation is mainly driven by the local government level's policy uncertainty.This study provides a new perspective for understanding the impact of the macroeconomic policy environment on long-term economic growth and social welfare.
Based on China's unique institutional background of continuous reform and the government's policy environment of frequent intervention in economic activities,this paper uses Chinese listed companies' data between 2003 and 2014 to examine the impact of policy uncertainty on corporate innovation.We show that policy uncertainty is significantly positive with the corporate innovation,indicating that an uncertain policy environment will encourage firms to implement innovative investments as early as possible to obtain future growth options,thus promote the corporate innovation.This result is robust to endogeneity and robustness tests.Further analysis reveals that the positive effect of policy uncertainty on innovation is more pronounced when the external product market is more competitive,when the growth opportunities are greater,or when the innovation is more difficult.Furthermore,we decompose the policy uncertainty index into three levels:global,national and local policy uncertainty,and find that the positive relationship between policy uncertainty and corporate innovation is mainly driven by the local government level's policy uncertainty.This study provides a new perspective for understanding the impact of the macroeconomic policy environment on long-term economic growth and social welfare.
引文
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[14]顾夏铭,陈勇民,潘士远.经济政策不确定性与创新:基于我国上市公司的实证分析[J].经济研究,2018(2):109-123.
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[22]Hansen P S.Frequent Price Changes under Menu Costs[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,1999,23(7):1065-1076.
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[27]Weeds H.Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition[J].Review of Economic Studies,2002,69(3):729-747.
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[29]Pindyck R S.Investments of uncertain Cost[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1993,34(1):53-76.
[30]Oi W.The Desirability of Price Instability under Perfect Competition[J].Econometrica,1961,29(1):58-64.
[31]Hartman R.The Effects of Price and Cost Uncertainty on Investment[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1972,5(2):258-266.
[32]Abel A.Optimal Investment under Uncertainty[J].American Economic Review,1983,73(1):228-233.
[33]Bloom N,Reenen J V.Patents,Real Options and Firm Performance[J].Economic Journal,2010,112(478):97-116.
[34]Fang V W,Tian X,Tice S.Does Stock Liquidity Enhance or Impede Firm Innovation?[J].The Journal of Finance,2014,69(5):2085-2125.
[35]潘越,潘健平,戴亦一.公司诉讼风险、司法地方保护主义与企业创新[J].经济研究,2015(3):131-145.
[36]Holmes T J,Levine D K,Schmitz J A.Monopoly and the Incentive to Innovate When Adoption Involves Switchover Disruptions[J].American Economic Journal Microeconomics,2012,4(30):1-33.
[37]陈信元,靳庆鲁,肖土盛,张国昌.行业竞争、管理层投资决策与公司增长/清算期权价值[J].经济学(季刊),2014(1):305-332.
[38]Mcgrattan E R,Prescott E C.Technology Capital and the US Current Account[J].American Economic Review,2010,100(4):1493-1522.
[39]Brown J R,Fazzari S M,Petersen B C.Financing Innovation and Growth:Cash Flow,External Equity and the 1990s R&D Boom[J].The Journal of Finance,2009,64(1):151-185.
[40]Tian X,Wang T Y.Tolerance for Failure and Corporate Innovation[J].The Review of Financial Studies,2011,27(1):211-255.
[41]Hassett K A,Sullivan J.Policy Uncertainty and the Economy:A Review of the Literature[J].Unpublished Working Paper,2016.
[42]Leahy J V,Whited T M.The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment:Some Stylized Facts[J].Journal of Money Credit & Banking,1996,28(1):64-83.
[43]王义中,宋敏.宏观经济不确定性、资金需求与公司投资[J].经济研究,2014(2):4-17.
[44]饶品贵,徐子慧.经济政策不确定性影响了企业高管变更吗?[J].管理世界,2017(1):145-157.
[45]黎文靖,郑曼妮.实质性创新还是策略性创新:宏观产业政策对微观企业创新的影响[J].经济研究,2016(4):60-73.
[46]Tan Y,Tian X,Zhang X,Zhao H.The Real Effects of Privatization:Evidence from China’s Split Share Structure Reform[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2014.
[2]Porter M E.Capital Disadvantage:America’s Failing Capital Investment System[J].Harvard Business Review,1992,70(5):65-82.
[3]Solow R M.Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1957,39:312-320.
[4]Wei S J,Xie Z,Zhang X.From“Made in China”to“Innovated in China”:Necessity,Prospect,and Challenges[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2017,31(1):49-70.
[5]李扬,张晓晶.“新常态”:经济发展的逻辑与前景[J].经济研究,2015(5):4-19.
[6]杨海生,陈少凌,罗党论,佘国满.政策不稳定性与经济增长:来自中国地方官员变更的经验证据[J].管理世界,2014(9):13-28.
[7]Bloom N.Fluctuations in Uncertainty[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2014,28(2):153-175.
[8]Baker S,Bloom N,Davis S.Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,131(4):1593-1636.
[9]Atanassov J,Julio B,Leng T.The Bright Side of Political Uncertainty:The Case of R&D[J].Unpublished Working Paper,2015.
[10]李凤羽,杨墨竹.经济政策不确定性会抑制企业投资吗?基于中国经济政策不确定指数的实证研究[J].金融研究,2015(4):115-129.
[11]Gulen H,Ion M.Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment[J].Review of Financial Studies,2016,29(3):523-564.
[12]Bloom N.Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D[J].American Economic Review,2007,97:250-255.
[13]Bhattacharya U,Hsu P H,Tian X,Xu Y.What Affects Innovation More:Policy or Policy Uncertainty?[J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2017,52(5):1869-1901.
[14]顾夏铭,陈勇民,潘士远.经济政策不确定性与创新:基于我国上市公司的实证分析[J].经济研究,2018(2):109-123.
[15]Knight F H.Risk,Uncertainty and Profit[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1921.
[16]Bernanke B.Irreversibility,Uncertainty,and Cyclical Investment[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1983,98:85-106.
[17]Dixit R K,Pindyck R S.Investment under Uncertainty[M].Princeton University Press,1994.
[18]Bloom N,Bond S,Reenen J V.Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics[J].Review of Economic Studies,2007,74:391-415.
[19]Bloom N,Draca M,Reenen J V.Trade Induced Technical Change?The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation,IT and Productivity[J].CEP Discussion Papers,2011.
[20]Grabowski H G.The Determinants of Industrial Research and Development:A Study of the Chemical,Drug,and Petroleum Industries[J].Journal of Political Economy,1968,76(2):292-306.
[21]Pastor L,Veronesi P.Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices[J].Journal of Finance,2012,67(4):1219-1264.
[22]Hansen P S.Frequent Price Changes under Menu Costs[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,1999,23(7):1065-1076.
[23]Ilut C L,Schneider M.Ambiguous Business Cycles[J].American Economic Review,2014,104(8):2368-2399.
[24]Bar-Ilan A,Strange W.Investment Lags[J].American Economic Review,1996,86(3):610-622.
[25]Holmstrom B.Agency Costs and Innovation[J].Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,1989,12(3):305-327.
[26]Kulatilaka N,Perotti E C.Strategic Growth Options[J].Management Science,1998,44(8):1021-1031.
[27]Weeds H.Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition[J].Review of Economic Studies,2002,69(3):729-747.
[28]Grossman G M,Shapiro C.Research Joint Ventures:An Antitrust Analysis[J].Journal of Law Economics & Organization,1986,2(2):315-337.
[29]Pindyck R S.Investments of uncertain Cost[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1993,34(1):53-76.
[30]Oi W.The Desirability of Price Instability under Perfect Competition[J].Econometrica,1961,29(1):58-64.
[31]Hartman R.The Effects of Price and Cost Uncertainty on Investment[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1972,5(2):258-266.
[32]Abel A.Optimal Investment under Uncertainty[J].American Economic Review,1983,73(1):228-233.
[33]Bloom N,Reenen J V.Patents,Real Options and Firm Performance[J].Economic Journal,2010,112(478):97-116.
[34]Fang V W,Tian X,Tice S.Does Stock Liquidity Enhance or Impede Firm Innovation?[J].The Journal of Finance,2014,69(5):2085-2125.
[35]潘越,潘健平,戴亦一.公司诉讼风险、司法地方保护主义与企业创新[J].经济研究,2015(3):131-145.
[36]Holmes T J,Levine D K,Schmitz J A.Monopoly and the Incentive to Innovate When Adoption Involves Switchover Disruptions[J].American Economic Journal Microeconomics,2012,4(30):1-33.
[37]陈信元,靳庆鲁,肖土盛,张国昌.行业竞争、管理层投资决策与公司增长/清算期权价值[J].经济学(季刊),2014(1):305-332.
[38]Mcgrattan E R,Prescott E C.Technology Capital and the US Current Account[J].American Economic Review,2010,100(4):1493-1522.
[39]Brown J R,Fazzari S M,Petersen B C.Financing Innovation and Growth:Cash Flow,External Equity and the 1990s R&D Boom[J].The Journal of Finance,2009,64(1):151-185.
[40]Tian X,Wang T Y.Tolerance for Failure and Corporate Innovation[J].The Review of Financial Studies,2011,27(1):211-255.
[41]Hassett K A,Sullivan J.Policy Uncertainty and the Economy:A Review of the Literature[J].Unpublished Working Paper,2016.
[42]Leahy J V,Whited T M.The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment:Some Stylized Facts[J].Journal of Money Credit & Banking,1996,28(1):64-83.
[43]王义中,宋敏.宏观经济不确定性、资金需求与公司投资[J].经济研究,2014(2):4-17.
[44]饶品贵,徐子慧.经济政策不确定性影响了企业高管变更吗?[J].管理世界,2017(1):145-157.
[45]黎文靖,郑曼妮.实质性创新还是策略性创新:宏观产业政策对微观企业创新的影响[J].经济研究,2016(4):60-73.
[46]Tan Y,Tian X,Zhang X,Zhao H.The Real Effects of Privatization:Evidence from China’s Split Share Structure Reform[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2014.
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