长三角城市土地利用格局与PM_(2.5)浓度的多尺度关联分析
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摘要
PM_(2.5)引发的雾霾污染对人体健康和社会可持续发展产生了严重威胁,已成为中国经济快速发展地区共同面临的问题。长三角是中国城市化进程最快、空气污染最为严重的地区之一,探寻该地区土地利用景观格局变化对PM_(2.5)的影响规律,有助于对PM_(2.5)"源""汇"景观的空间格局进行合理配置,也可以为污染防治决策提供科学依据。本文运用重心模型、冷热点分析和景观指数,探讨了该区域1995—2015年PM_(2.5)浓度的时空分布特征以及景观格局的变化规律,并使用岭回归方法分析了建设用地、林地、耕地和水体四种土地利用类型的景观格局在行政区尺度和外接圆尺度上对PM_(2.5)浓度的影响。结果显示:①1995—2015年长三角地区PM_(2.5)浓度总体呈上升趋势,并且具有"北高南低"和"南缓北急"空间分异特征。②长三角区域内建设用地面积大幅上升,且呈聚合状发展,而林地和耕地面积却在不断减少,并呈破碎状分布。③建设用地和林地分别是PM_(2.5)的"源"景观与"汇"景观,耕地对PM_(2.5)的"源""汇"作用交错,水体对PM_(2.5)无明显的净化作用。④相较于行政区尺度,外接圆尺度下林地PLAND、ED与PM_(2.5)浓度的负相关更为显著,可见对城市周边地区进行景观格局优化能收到更好的效果。研究表明:控制建设用地合理有序增长并采用多中心发展模式,有利于缓解城市主城区的环境压力;提高城市周边区域林地的比重和聚集度或加大林地与建设用地的接触面积,可以有效地减少城市PM_(2.5)浓度;对耕地进行整理使其形成连片化景观,并通过科学的耕作方式减少耕地上农业生产所带来的PM_(2.5)前体物,有助于发挥其对PM_(2.5)的"汇"作用。
Haze pollution caused by PM_(2.5) has threated human health and sustainable development in many rapidly developing regions of China over the past decade. The Yangtze River Delta( YRD) region is one of the rapidly urbanizing regions in China with severe PM_(2.5) pollution. Therefore,it is critical to explore the impact of urban landscape dynamics on PM_(2.5) variations in this region to optimize the spatial arrangement of the ‘source'and ‘sink'elements in the landscape. In this paper,we used the gravity model,hotspot analysis,and landscape indices to explore the spatio-temporal variations of PM_(2.5) concentration and landscape pattern in the YRD region during 1995-2015. We also used the ridge regression model to analyze the effects of landscape pattern of four land use types( including construction land,woodland,cropland,and water body) on PM_(2.5) concentration at multiple spatial scales. The results showed that ① the PM_(2.5) concentration increased significantly from 1995 to 2015,especially in the northern part of the YRD.Moreover,the PM_(2.5) concentration also increased more rapidly in the northern part than in the southern part of the region. ②During1995-2015,construction land had an increasing area and aggregation,while woodland and cropland have been decreasing,and their distribution is fragmented. ③Construction land and woodland are the‘source'and‘sink'landscape for haze pollution,respectively.Cropland has both effects of‘source'and ‘sink'on PM_(2.5) concentration. Water body has no obvious effect on haze pollution. ④Higher PLAND and ED values of woodland were related with lower PM_(2.5) concentration at the smaller spatial scale. Based on these findings,we recommend the following land management measures for mitigating PM_(2.5) pollution for the YRD region: Encouraging the‘leap frogging'pattern of urban growth; distributing and managing woodland near the construction land to increase the contact area between the two land use types; and preserving large cropland patches.
Haze pollution caused by PM_(2.5) has threated human health and sustainable development in many rapidly developing regions of China over the past decade. The Yangtze River Delta( YRD) region is one of the rapidly urbanizing regions in China with severe PM_(2.5) pollution. Therefore,it is critical to explore the impact of urban landscape dynamics on PM_(2.5) variations in this region to optimize the spatial arrangement of the ‘source'and ‘sink'elements in the landscape. In this paper,we used the gravity model,hotspot analysis,and landscape indices to explore the spatio-temporal variations of PM_(2.5) concentration and landscape pattern in the YRD region during 1995-2015. We also used the ridge regression model to analyze the effects of landscape pattern of four land use types( including construction land,woodland,cropland,and water body) on PM_(2.5) concentration at multiple spatial scales. The results showed that ① the PM_(2.5) concentration increased significantly from 1995 to 2015,especially in the northern part of the YRD.Moreover,the PM_(2.5) concentration also increased more rapidly in the northern part than in the southern part of the region. ②During1995-2015,construction land had an increasing area and aggregation,while woodland and cropland have been decreasing,and their distribution is fragmented. ③Construction land and woodland are the‘source'and‘sink'landscape for haze pollution,respectively.Cropland has both effects of‘source'and ‘sink'on PM_(2.5) concentration. Water body has no obvious effect on haze pollution. ④Higher PLAND and ED values of woodland were related with lower PM_(2.5) concentration at the smaller spatial scale. Based on these findings,we recommend the following land management measures for mitigating PM_(2.5) pollution for the YRD region: Encouraging the‘leap frogging'pattern of urban growth; distributing and managing woodland near the construction land to increase the contact area between the two land use types; and preserving large cropland patches.
引文
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[19]徐建辉,江洪.长江三角洲PM2. 5质量浓度遥感估算与时空分布特征[J].环境科学,2015,36(9):3119-3127.
[20]TAO Y,WANG H,OU W,et al. A land-cover-based approach to assessing ecosystem services supply and demand dynamics in the rapidly urbanizing Yangtze River Delta Region[J]. Land use policy,2018,72:250-258.
[21]PENG J,CHEN S,LV H, et al. Spatiotemporal patterns of remotely sensed PM2. 5concentration in China from 1999 to 2011[J]. Remote sensing of environment,2016,174:109-121.
[22]中华人民共和国环境保护部. GB3095-2012:环境空气质量标准[S].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2012.
[23]欧维新,张伦嘉,陶宇,等.基于土地利用变化的长三角生态系统健康时空动态研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(5):84-92.
[24]VAN D A,MARTIN R V,BRAUER M,et al. Global estimates of fine particulate matter using a combined geophysical-statistical method with information from satellites,models,and monitors[J].Environmental science&technology,2016,50(7):3762-3772.
[25]BECHLE M J,MILLET D B,MARSHALL J D. Does urban form affect urban NO2? satellite-based evidence for more than 1 200 cities[J]. Environmental science&technology,2017, 51(21):12707-12716.
[26]许学强,周一星,宁越敏.城市地理学[M].第2版.北京:高等教育出版社,2009.
[27]HOERAL A E, KENNARD R W. Ridge regression:biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems[J]. Technometrics,1970,42(1):80-86.
[28]孙海玲,王红平.基于岭回归的城市建筑能耗增长驱动因素研究[J].城市发展研究,2013,20(5):21-24.
[29]徐建华,岳文泽.近20年来中国人口重心与经济重心的演变及其对比分析[J].地理科学,2001(5):385-389.
[30]GETIS A,ORD J K. The analysis of spatial association by the use of distance statistics geographyical analysis[J]. 1992,24(1):189-206.
[31]HAN L,ZHOU W,LI W. City as a major source area of fine particulate(PM2. 5)in China[J]. Environmental pollution,2015,206:183-187.
[32]陈利顶,傅伯杰,赵文武.“源”“汇”景观理论及其生态学意义[J].生态学报,2006(5):1444-1449.
[33]韩立建.城市化与PM2. 5时空格局演变及其影响因素的研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2018,37(8):1011-1021.
[34]HAN L,ZHOU W,LI W. Impact of urbanization level on urban air quality:a case of fine particles(PM2. 5)in Chinese cities[J].Environmental pollution,2014,194:163-170.
[35]HAN L,ZHOU W,LI W. Meteorological and urban landscape factors on severe air pollution in Beijing[J]. Journal of the air&waste management association,2015,65:7,782-787.
[2]毛婉柳,徐建华,卢德彬,等. 2015年长三角地区城市PM2. 5时空格局及影响因素分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(2):264-272.
[3]HYSLOP N P. Impaired visibility:the air pollution people see[J].Atmospheric environment,2009,43(1):182-195.
[4]LIM S S,VOS T,FLAXMAN A D,et al. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors[J]. The lancet,2012,380:2224-2260.
[5]黄亚林,刘超,曾克峰,等. 2013─2014年武汉市PM2. 5的时空分布特征及其与气象条件的关系[J].生态环境学报,2015,24(8):1330-1335.
[6]曾静,王美娥,张红星.北京市夏秋季大气PM2. 5浓度与气象要素的相关性[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(9):2695-2699.
[7]李会霞,史兴民.西安市PM2. 5时空分布特征及气象成因[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(2):266-271.
[8]王跃思,姚利,王莉莉,等. 2013年元月我国中东部地区强霾污染成因分析[J].中国科学:地球科学,2014,44(1):15-26.
[9]LIN X,WANG D. Spatiotemporal evolution of urban air quality and socioeconomic driving forces in China[J]. Journal of geographical sciences,2016,26(11):1533-1549.
[10]孙建如,钟韵.我国大城市PM2. 5影响因素的经济分析——基于市级面板数据的实证研究[J].生态经济,2015,31(3):62-65,77.
[11]项佳娥,徐丽华,张方方,等.杭州城区PM2. 5和PM10污染特征及其影响因子分析[J].中国环境监测,2016,32(6):36-42.
[12]HARRISON R M,DEACON A R,JONES M R,et al. Sources and processes affecting concentrations of PM10and PM2. 5particulate matter in Birmingham(U. K.)[J]. Atmospheric environment,1997,31:4103-4117.
[13]莫莉,余新晓,赵阳,等.北京市区域城市化程度与颗粒物污染的相关性分析[J].生态环境学报,2014,23(5):806-811.
[14]唐昀凯,刘胜华.城市土地利用类型与PM2. 5浓度相关性研究——以武汉市为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(9):1458-1463.
[15]肖玉,王硕,李娜,等.北京城市绿地对大气PM2. 5的削减作用[J].资源科学,2015,37(6):1149-1155.
[16]NGUYEN T,YU X X,ZHANG Z M,et al. Relationship between types of urban forest and PM2. 5capture at three growth stages of leaves[J]. Journal of environmental sciences,2015,27:33-41.
[17]SHE Q,PENG X,XU Q,et al. Air quality and its response to satellite-derived urban form in the Yangtze River Delta,China[J].Ecological indicators,2017,75:297-306.
[18]戴昭鑫,张云芝,胡云锋,等.基于地面监测数据的2013—2015年长三角地区PM2. 5时空特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(5):813-821.
[19]徐建辉,江洪.长江三角洲PM2. 5质量浓度遥感估算与时空分布特征[J].环境科学,2015,36(9):3119-3127.
[20]TAO Y,WANG H,OU W,et al. A land-cover-based approach to assessing ecosystem services supply and demand dynamics in the rapidly urbanizing Yangtze River Delta Region[J]. Land use policy,2018,72:250-258.
[21]PENG J,CHEN S,LV H, et al. Spatiotemporal patterns of remotely sensed PM2. 5concentration in China from 1999 to 2011[J]. Remote sensing of environment,2016,174:109-121.
[22]中华人民共和国环境保护部. GB3095-2012:环境空气质量标准[S].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2012.
[23]欧维新,张伦嘉,陶宇,等.基于土地利用变化的长三角生态系统健康时空动态研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(5):84-92.
[24]VAN D A,MARTIN R V,BRAUER M,et al. Global estimates of fine particulate matter using a combined geophysical-statistical method with information from satellites,models,and monitors[J].Environmental science&technology,2016,50(7):3762-3772.
[25]BECHLE M J,MILLET D B,MARSHALL J D. Does urban form affect urban NO2? satellite-based evidence for more than 1 200 cities[J]. Environmental science&technology,2017, 51(21):12707-12716.
[26]许学强,周一星,宁越敏.城市地理学[M].第2版.北京:高等教育出版社,2009.
[27]HOERAL A E, KENNARD R W. Ridge regression:biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems[J]. Technometrics,1970,42(1):80-86.
[28]孙海玲,王红平.基于岭回归的城市建筑能耗增长驱动因素研究[J].城市发展研究,2013,20(5):21-24.
[29]徐建华,岳文泽.近20年来中国人口重心与经济重心的演变及其对比分析[J].地理科学,2001(5):385-389.
[30]GETIS A,ORD J K. The analysis of spatial association by the use of distance statistics geographyical analysis[J]. 1992,24(1):189-206.
[31]HAN L,ZHOU W,LI W. City as a major source area of fine particulate(PM2. 5)in China[J]. Environmental pollution,2015,206:183-187.
[32]陈利顶,傅伯杰,赵文武.“源”“汇”景观理论及其生态学意义[J].生态学报,2006(5):1444-1449.
[33]韩立建.城市化与PM2. 5时空格局演变及其影响因素的研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2018,37(8):1011-1021.
[34]HAN L,ZHOU W,LI W. Impact of urbanization level on urban air quality:a case of fine particles(PM2. 5)in Chinese cities[J].Environmental pollution,2014,194:163-170.
[35]HAN L,ZHOU W,LI W. Meteorological and urban landscape factors on severe air pollution in Beijing[J]. Journal of the air&waste management association,2015,65:7,782-787.
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