应用2类Newmark简易模型进行2008年汶川地震滑坡评估
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摘要
本研究的目的是利用真实的汶川同震滑坡数据分别对利用I_a和PGA参数的2种简易Newmark滑坡预测模型进行定量评估分析。根据研究区的地形数据和区域地质资料,获得了研究区的临界加速度(a_c)分布,利用基于全球地震动记录拟合得到的Newmark经验公式,结合汶川地震的I_a和PGA参数分布,获得了基于2个地震动参数的滑坡位移分布图。大体上,基于I_a参数的滑坡危险性评估结果略好于基于PGA参数简易模型的评估结果。基于I_a的评估结果能够更好地反映同震滑坡的宏观分布特征。然而,2种Newmark模型反演得到的滑坡面积要明显大于实际滑坡物源区的面积。这提醒我们基于当前岩性和地震动数据只能获得宏观区域的滑坡相对危险性。而通过更为准确的地形数据和输入参数,才能进一步提高预测位移结果的精确度。
At present,with the wide application of the Newmark method,various Newmark empirical formulas with different ground motion parameters have been fitted by many researchers based on global strong-motion records. However, the existing study about the Wenchuan earthquake does not quantitatively evaluate the applicability of different Newmark models based on the actual landslides distribution. The aim of this paper is to present a comparison between observed landslides from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and predicted landslides using Newmark displacement method based on different ground motion parameters. The factor-of-safety map and critical acceleration( a_c) map in the study area are obtained by using the terrain data and geological data. The distribution of Arias intensity( I_a) and PGA in the study area is obtained by using the attenuation formulas of Arias intensity( I_a) and PGA,which is regressed by Wenchuan ground motion records. Based on the distribution of Arias intensity( I_a) and PGA parameters,we obtained the predicted locations of landslide using Newmark regression equations which are generated using global strong-motion records. The results shows that the assessment results can better reflect the macroscopic distribution characteristics of coseismic landslides,most predicted landslide cells are distributed on the two sides of the BeichuanYingxiu Fault,especially the Pengguan complex rock mass in the hanging wall. The abilities to predict landslide occurrence of the two Newmark simplified models are different. On the whole,the evaluated result of simplified model based on parameter I_ais better than that based on PGA parameter.The GFC values obtained by the Newmark model of I_aand PGA parameters are 65. 7% and 34. 9%respectively. The evaluated result based on I_acan better reflect the macro distribution of coseismic landslides. The Ls_Pred value based on the Newmark model of parameter I_ais 26. 5%,and the Ls_Pred value based on the Newmark model of PGA parameter is 10. 3%. However the total area of predicted landslides accounts for 2. 4% of the study area,which indicates that the predicted landslide cells are greater than the observed landslide cells. This reminds us that depending on the current input of shear strength and ground-motion parameters,we can only conduct landslide hazard assessment in macro areas,the ability to predict landslide can be improved using more accurate topographic data and input parameters.
At present,with the wide application of the Newmark method,various Newmark empirical formulas with different ground motion parameters have been fitted by many researchers based on global strong-motion records. However, the existing study about the Wenchuan earthquake does not quantitatively evaluate the applicability of different Newmark models based on the actual landslides distribution. The aim of this paper is to present a comparison between observed landslides from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and predicted landslides using Newmark displacement method based on different ground motion parameters. The factor-of-safety map and critical acceleration( a_c) map in the study area are obtained by using the terrain data and geological data. The distribution of Arias intensity( I_a) and PGA in the study area is obtained by using the attenuation formulas of Arias intensity( I_a) and PGA,which is regressed by Wenchuan ground motion records. Based on the distribution of Arias intensity( I_a) and PGA parameters,we obtained the predicted locations of landslide using Newmark regression equations which are generated using global strong-motion records. The results shows that the assessment results can better reflect the macroscopic distribution characteristics of coseismic landslides,most predicted landslide cells are distributed on the two sides of the BeichuanYingxiu Fault,especially the Pengguan complex rock mass in the hanging wall. The abilities to predict landslide occurrence of the two Newmark simplified models are different. On the whole,the evaluated result of simplified model based on parameter I_ais better than that based on PGA parameter.The GFC values obtained by the Newmark model of I_aand PGA parameters are 65. 7% and 34. 9%respectively. The evaluated result based on I_acan better reflect the macro distribution of coseismic landslides. The Ls_Pred value based on the Newmark model of parameter I_ais 26. 5%,and the Ls_Pred value based on the Newmark model of PGA parameter is 10. 3%. However the total area of predicted landslides accounts for 2. 4% of the study area,which indicates that the predicted landslide cells are greater than the observed landslide cells. This reminds us that depending on the current input of shear strength and ground-motion parameters,we can only conduct landslide hazard assessment in macro areas,the ability to predict landslide can be improved using more accurate topographic data and input parameters.
引文
陈晓利,袁仁茂,庾露.2013.Newmark方法在芦山地震诱发滑坡分布预测研究中的应用[J].地震地质,35(3):661-670.doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2013.03.019.CHEN Xiao-li,YUAN Ren-mao,YU Lu.2013.Applying the Newmark's model to the assessment of earthquaketriggered landslides during the Lushan earthquake[J].Seismology and Geology,35(3):661-670(in Chinese).
邓起东.2007.中国活动构造图[CM].北京:地震出版社.DENG Qi-dong.2007.Active Tectonics Map of China[CM].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
葛华,陈启国,王德伟.2013.地震滑坡危险性评价及编图:以映秀震中区为例[J].中国地质,(2):644-652.GE Hua,CHEN Qi-guo,WANG De-wei.2013.The assessment and mapping of seismic landslide hazards:A case study of Yingxiu area,Sichuan Province[J].Geology in China,(2):644-652(in Chinese).
刘甲美,王涛,石菊松,等.2017.四川九寨沟MS7.0地震滑坡应急快速评估[J].地质力学学报,(5):639-645.LIU Jia-mei,WANG Tao,SHI Ju-song,et al.2017.Emergency rapid assessment of landslides induced by the Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake,Sichuan,China[J].Journal of Geomechanics,(5):639-645(in Chinese).
王涛,吴树仁,石菊松,等.2013.基于简化Newmark位移模型的区域地震滑坡危险性快速评估:以汶川MS8.0级地震为例[J].工程地质学报,21(1):16-24.WANG Tao,WU Shu-ren,SHI Ju-song,et al.2013.Case study on rapid assessment of regional seismic landslide hazard based on simplified Newmark displacement model:Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,21(1):16-24(In Chinese).
王涛,吴树仁,石菊松,等.2015.地震滑坡危险性概念和基于力学模型的评估方法探讨[J].工程地质学报,23(1):93-104.WANG Tao,WU Shu-ren,SHI Ju-song,et al.2015.Concepts and mechanical assessment method for seismic landslide hazard:A review[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,23(1):93-104(in Chinese).
王秀英,王登伟.2011.四川汶川地震诱发滑坡与峰值速度的关系[J].地质通报,30(1):159-165.WANG Xiu-ying,WANG Deng-wei.2011.Relationships between the Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide and peak ground velocity,Sichuan,China[J].Geological Bulletin of China,30(1):159-165(in Chinese).
谢俊举,温增平,高孟潭,等.2010.2008年汶川地震近断层竖向与水平向地震动特征[J].地球物理学报,53(8):1796-1805.XIE Jun-ju,WEN Zeng-ping,GAO Meng-tan,et al.2010.Charateristics of near-fault vertical and horizontal ground motion from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,53(8):1796-1805(in Chinese).
徐光兴,姚令侃,李朝红,等.2012.基于汶川地震强震动记录的边坡永久位移预测模型[J].岩土工程学报,34(6):1131-1136.XU Guang-xing,YAO Ling-kan,LI Chao-hong,et al.2012.Predictive models for permanent displacement of slopes based on recorded strong-motion data of Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,34(6):1131-1136(in Chinese).
许冲.2013.实际滑坡是滑坡危险性评价结果合理性检验最好的标准[J].工程地质学报,21(6):908-911.XU Chong.2013.Actual landslides as most objective standard for validation of landslide hazard assessment result[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,21(6):908-911(in Chinese).
中华人民共和国国家标准编写组.1995.工程岩体分级标准GB/T 50218-94[S].北京:中国计划出版社.The National Standards Compilation Group of People's Repulic of China.1995.Standard for Engineering Classification of Rock Masses GB/T 50218-1994[S].China Planning Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
中华人民共和国建设部.2009.岩土工程勘察规范GB 50021-2001(2009年版)[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社.Ministry of Construction of the People's Republic of China.2009.Code for Geotechnical Engineering Investigation GB50021-2001(2009)[S].China Architecture&Building Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
Abrahamson N,Silva W.2008.Summary of the abrahamson&silva NGA ground-motion relations[J].Earthquake Spectra,24(1):67-97.
Bojadjieva J,Sheshov V,Bonnard C.2018.Hazard and risk assessment of earthquake-induced landslides:Case study[J].Landslides,15(1):161-171.
Bray J D.2007.Simplified seismic slope displacement procedures[C].4th International Conference on Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering-Invited Lectures:327-353.
Chen X L,Liu C G,Yu L,et al.2014.Critical acceleration as a criterion in seismic landslide susceptibility assessment[J].Geomorphology,217:15-22.
Dreyfus D K.2011.A comparison of methodologies used to predict earthquake-induced landslides[D].University of Texas at Austin,Texas,USA.
Dreyfus D K,Rathje E M,Jibson R W.2013.The influence of different simplified sliding-block models and input parameters on regional predictions of seismic landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake[J].Engineering Geology,163:41-54.
Gallen S F,Clark M K,Godt J W.2015.Coseismic landslides reveal near-surface rock strength in a high-relief,tectonically active setting[J].Geology,43(1):11-14.
Gallen S F,Clark M K,Godt J W,et al.2017.Application and evaluation of a rapid response earthquake-triggered landslide model to the 25 April 2015 MW7.8 Gorkha earthquake,Nepal[J].Tectonophysics,714-715:173-187.
Godt J W,Sener B,Verdin K L,et al.2008.Rapid assessment of earthquake-induced landsliding[C].Proceedings of the First World Landslide Forum,Tokyo,Japan.
Hsieh S,Lee C.2011.Empirical estimation of the Newmark displacement from the Arias intensity and critical acceleration[J].Engineering Geology,122(1-2):34-42.
Jibson R W.1993.Predicting earthquake-induced landslide displacements using Newmark's sliding block analysis[R].Transportation Research Record.
Jibson R W,Harp E L,Michael J A.1998.A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps:An example from the Los Angeles,California,area[R].US Geological Survey Open-File Report:98-113.
Jibson R W,Harp E L,Michael J A.2000.A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps[J].Engineering Geology,58(3-4):271-289.
Jibson R W.2007.Regression models for estimating coseismic landslide displacement[J].Engineering Geology,91(2-4):209-218.
Jibson R W.2011.Methods for assessing the stability of slopes during earthquakes:A retrospective[J].Engineering Geology,122(1):43-50.
Jibson R W,Michael J A.2009.Maps showing seismic landslide hazards in Anchorage,Alaska[R].US Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3077,scale 1︰25000,11-p.pamphlet.https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3077.
Keefer D K.1984.Landslides caused by earthquakes[J].Geological Society of America Bulletin,95(4):406.
McCrink T P.2001.Regional earthquake-induced landslide mapping using Newmark displacement criteria,San Cruz County,California[M]//Engineering Geology Practice in Northern California:California Division of Mines and Geology Bulletin.
Miles S B,Ho C L.1999.Rigorous landslide hazard zonation using Newmark's method and stochastic ground motion simulation[J].Soil Dynamics&Earthquake Engineering,18(4):305-323.
Miles S B,Keefer D K.2000.Evaluation of seismic slope-performance models using a regional case study[J].Environmental&Engineering Geoscience,6(1):25-39.
Miles S B,Keefer D K.2001.Seismic landslide hazard for the city of Berkeley,California[CM].US Geological Survey Miscellaneous Field Studies Map MF-2378.
Newmark N M.1965.Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments[J].Géotechnique,15(2):139-160.
Rao G,Cheng Y L,Lin A M,et al.2017.Relationship between landslides and active normal faulting in the epicentral area of the AD 1556 M~8.5 Huaxian earthquake,SE Weihe Graben(Central China)[J].Journal of Earth Science,28(3):545-554.
Saygili G,Rathje E M.2008.Empirical predictive models for earthquake-induced sliding displacements of slopes[J].Journal of Geotechnical&Geoenvironmental Engineering,134(6):790-803.
Stafford P J,Berrill J B,Pettinga J R.2009.New predictive equations for Arias intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand[J].Journal of Seismology,13(1):31-52.
Thaleia T,Bray J D,Abrahamson N A.2010.Empirical attenuation relationship for Arias Intensity[J].Earthquake Engineering&Structural Dynamics,32(7):1133-1155.
Tian Y Y,Xu C,Xu X W,et al.2016.Detailed inventory mapping and spatial analyses to landslides induced by the2013 MS6.6 Minxian earthquake of China[J].Journal of Earth Science,27(6):1016-1026.
Wang T,Liu J,Shi J,et al.2017.The influence of DEM resolution on seismic landslide hazard assessment based upon the Newmark displacement method:A case study in the loess area of Tianshui,China[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,76(17):604.
Wang X Y,Nie G Z,Ma M J.2011.Evaluation model of landslide hazards induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake using strong motion data[J].Earthquake Science,24(3):311-319.
Wieczorek G F,Wilson R C,Harp E L.1985.Map showing slope stability during earthquakes in San Mateo County,California[R].Invest.Map I-1257-E.
Wilson R C,Keefer D K.1983.Dynamic analysis of a slope failure from the 6 August 1979 Coyote Lake,California,earthquake[J].Bulletin of the Deismological Society of America,73(3):863-877.
Xu C,Dai F,Xu X,et al.2012.GIS-based support vector machine modeling of earthquake-triggered landslide susceptibility in the Jianjiang River watershed,China[J].Geomorphology,145-146(2):70-80.
Xu C,Xu X W,Yao Q,et al.2013a.GIS-based bivariate statistical modelling for earthquake triggered landslides susceptibility mapping related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,China[J].Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology,46(2):221-236.
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Xu C,Xu X,Tian Y,et al.2016.Two comparable earthquakes produced greatly different coseismic landslides:The2015 Gorkha,Nepal and 2008 Wenchuan,China events[J].Journal of Earth Science,27(6):1008-1015.
Xu X W,Wen X Z,Yu G H,et al.2009.Coseismic reverse-and oblique-slip surface faulting generated by the 2008MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake,China[J].Geology,37(6):515-518.
Yin Y P,Wang F W,Ping S.2009.Landslide hazards triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China[J].Landslides,6(2):139-152.
邓起东.2007.中国活动构造图[CM].北京:地震出版社.DENG Qi-dong.2007.Active Tectonics Map of China[CM].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
葛华,陈启国,王德伟.2013.地震滑坡危险性评价及编图:以映秀震中区为例[J].中国地质,(2):644-652.GE Hua,CHEN Qi-guo,WANG De-wei.2013.The assessment and mapping of seismic landslide hazards:A case study of Yingxiu area,Sichuan Province[J].Geology in China,(2):644-652(in Chinese).
刘甲美,王涛,石菊松,等.2017.四川九寨沟MS7.0地震滑坡应急快速评估[J].地质力学学报,(5):639-645.LIU Jia-mei,WANG Tao,SHI Ju-song,et al.2017.Emergency rapid assessment of landslides induced by the Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake,Sichuan,China[J].Journal of Geomechanics,(5):639-645(in Chinese).
王涛,吴树仁,石菊松,等.2013.基于简化Newmark位移模型的区域地震滑坡危险性快速评估:以汶川MS8.0级地震为例[J].工程地质学报,21(1):16-24.WANG Tao,WU Shu-ren,SHI Ju-song,et al.2013.Case study on rapid assessment of regional seismic landslide hazard based on simplified Newmark displacement model:Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,21(1):16-24(In Chinese).
王涛,吴树仁,石菊松,等.2015.地震滑坡危险性概念和基于力学模型的评估方法探讨[J].工程地质学报,23(1):93-104.WANG Tao,WU Shu-ren,SHI Ju-song,et al.2015.Concepts and mechanical assessment method for seismic landslide hazard:A review[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,23(1):93-104(in Chinese).
王秀英,王登伟.2011.四川汶川地震诱发滑坡与峰值速度的关系[J].地质通报,30(1):159-165.WANG Xiu-ying,WANG Deng-wei.2011.Relationships between the Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide and peak ground velocity,Sichuan,China[J].Geological Bulletin of China,30(1):159-165(in Chinese).
谢俊举,温增平,高孟潭,等.2010.2008年汶川地震近断层竖向与水平向地震动特征[J].地球物理学报,53(8):1796-1805.XIE Jun-ju,WEN Zeng-ping,GAO Meng-tan,et al.2010.Charateristics of near-fault vertical and horizontal ground motion from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,53(8):1796-1805(in Chinese).
徐光兴,姚令侃,李朝红,等.2012.基于汶川地震强震动记录的边坡永久位移预测模型[J].岩土工程学报,34(6):1131-1136.XU Guang-xing,YAO Ling-kan,LI Chao-hong,et al.2012.Predictive models for permanent displacement of slopes based on recorded strong-motion data of Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,34(6):1131-1136(in Chinese).
许冲.2013.实际滑坡是滑坡危险性评价结果合理性检验最好的标准[J].工程地质学报,21(6):908-911.XU Chong.2013.Actual landslides as most objective standard for validation of landslide hazard assessment result[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,21(6):908-911(in Chinese).
中华人民共和国国家标准编写组.1995.工程岩体分级标准GB/T 50218-94[S].北京:中国计划出版社.The National Standards Compilation Group of People's Repulic of China.1995.Standard for Engineering Classification of Rock Masses GB/T 50218-1994[S].China Planning Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
中华人民共和国建设部.2009.岩土工程勘察规范GB 50021-2001(2009年版)[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社.Ministry of Construction of the People's Republic of China.2009.Code for Geotechnical Engineering Investigation GB50021-2001(2009)[S].China Architecture&Building Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
Abrahamson N,Silva W.2008.Summary of the abrahamson&silva NGA ground-motion relations[J].Earthquake Spectra,24(1):67-97.
Bojadjieva J,Sheshov V,Bonnard C.2018.Hazard and risk assessment of earthquake-induced landslides:Case study[J].Landslides,15(1):161-171.
Bray J D.2007.Simplified seismic slope displacement procedures[C].4th International Conference on Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering-Invited Lectures:327-353.
Chen X L,Liu C G,Yu L,et al.2014.Critical acceleration as a criterion in seismic landslide susceptibility assessment[J].Geomorphology,217:15-22.
Dreyfus D K.2011.A comparison of methodologies used to predict earthquake-induced landslides[D].University of Texas at Austin,Texas,USA.
Dreyfus D K,Rathje E M,Jibson R W.2013.The influence of different simplified sliding-block models and input parameters on regional predictions of seismic landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake[J].Engineering Geology,163:41-54.
Gallen S F,Clark M K,Godt J W.2015.Coseismic landslides reveal near-surface rock strength in a high-relief,tectonically active setting[J].Geology,43(1):11-14.
Gallen S F,Clark M K,Godt J W,et al.2017.Application and evaluation of a rapid response earthquake-triggered landslide model to the 25 April 2015 MW7.8 Gorkha earthquake,Nepal[J].Tectonophysics,714-715:173-187.
Godt J W,Sener B,Verdin K L,et al.2008.Rapid assessment of earthquake-induced landsliding[C].Proceedings of the First World Landslide Forum,Tokyo,Japan.
Hsieh S,Lee C.2011.Empirical estimation of the Newmark displacement from the Arias intensity and critical acceleration[J].Engineering Geology,122(1-2):34-42.
Jibson R W.1993.Predicting earthquake-induced landslide displacements using Newmark's sliding block analysis[R].Transportation Research Record.
Jibson R W,Harp E L,Michael J A.1998.A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps:An example from the Los Angeles,California,area[R].US Geological Survey Open-File Report:98-113.
Jibson R W,Harp E L,Michael J A.2000.A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps[J].Engineering Geology,58(3-4):271-289.
Jibson R W.2007.Regression models for estimating coseismic landslide displacement[J].Engineering Geology,91(2-4):209-218.
Jibson R W.2011.Methods for assessing the stability of slopes during earthquakes:A retrospective[J].Engineering Geology,122(1):43-50.
Jibson R W,Michael J A.2009.Maps showing seismic landslide hazards in Anchorage,Alaska[R].US Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3077,scale 1︰25000,11-p.pamphlet.https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3077.
Keefer D K.1984.Landslides caused by earthquakes[J].Geological Society of America Bulletin,95(4):406.
McCrink T P.2001.Regional earthquake-induced landslide mapping using Newmark displacement criteria,San Cruz County,California[M]//Engineering Geology Practice in Northern California:California Division of Mines and Geology Bulletin.
Miles S B,Ho C L.1999.Rigorous landslide hazard zonation using Newmark's method and stochastic ground motion simulation[J].Soil Dynamics&Earthquake Engineering,18(4):305-323.
Miles S B,Keefer D K.2000.Evaluation of seismic slope-performance models using a regional case study[J].Environmental&Engineering Geoscience,6(1):25-39.
Miles S B,Keefer D K.2001.Seismic landslide hazard for the city of Berkeley,California[CM].US Geological Survey Miscellaneous Field Studies Map MF-2378.
Newmark N M.1965.Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments[J].Géotechnique,15(2):139-160.
Rao G,Cheng Y L,Lin A M,et al.2017.Relationship between landslides and active normal faulting in the epicentral area of the AD 1556 M~8.5 Huaxian earthquake,SE Weihe Graben(Central China)[J].Journal of Earth Science,28(3):545-554.
Saygili G,Rathje E M.2008.Empirical predictive models for earthquake-induced sliding displacements of slopes[J].Journal of Geotechnical&Geoenvironmental Engineering,134(6):790-803.
Stafford P J,Berrill J B,Pettinga J R.2009.New predictive equations for Arias intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand[J].Journal of Seismology,13(1):31-52.
Thaleia T,Bray J D,Abrahamson N A.2010.Empirical attenuation relationship for Arias Intensity[J].Earthquake Engineering&Structural Dynamics,32(7):1133-1155.
Tian Y Y,Xu C,Xu X W,et al.2016.Detailed inventory mapping and spatial analyses to landslides induced by the2013 MS6.6 Minxian earthquake of China[J].Journal of Earth Science,27(6):1016-1026.
Wang T,Liu J,Shi J,et al.2017.The influence of DEM resolution on seismic landslide hazard assessment based upon the Newmark displacement method:A case study in the loess area of Tianshui,China[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,76(17):604.
Wang X Y,Nie G Z,Ma M J.2011.Evaluation model of landslide hazards induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake using strong motion data[J].Earthquake Science,24(3):311-319.
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