华北地区主要断裂带上的库仑应力变化及地震活动性分析
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摘要
华北地区活断层丰富、地震频发。由于所处地理位置具有特殊性,其频繁的地震活动备受关注。为此,文中根据弹性位错理论和分层岩石圈模型,计算了1820年以来华北地区中强地震(M_S≥6. 0)引起的同震及震后介质黏弹性松弛产生的库仑应力变化。计算结果显示,自1888年渤海湾地震发生后的24个地震中,共有19个落在了库仑应力变化的正值区域,触发率达79%;计算结果进一步表明,宁河—新乡地震带的滦县-乐亭断裂、潘庄西断裂、东明-成武断裂、郓城断裂、隆尧断裂,郯庐地震带的营口-潍坊断裂,首都圈地区夏垫断裂,黄庄-高丽营断裂带上的库仑应力变化增加,其地震危险性相对较高,仍需要进一步的深入研究。
In recent years,the Coulomb stress change induced by large earthquakes has attracted extensive attention in seismology. Many scientists at home and abroad have made remarkable achievements in the research on it. It is well known that North China is densely populated and industrially developed.More importantly,the Chinese capital city,Beijing,lies in the hinterland of North China. At the same time,there are abundant active faults and earthquakes in North China. The capital Beijing is China's political,economic,cultural,and transportation center. It is the center of all social activities and economic activities in the country,and is also a region where population,wealth,and information are highly concentrated. With the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the construction of Xiong'an New District,the consequences of big earthquake in Beijing and surrounding areas are unimaginable. Due to its special geographical location,frequent seismic activities in North China capture much attention. From the physical principle,the occurrence of earthquakes releases the accumulated stress,but the stress does not completely disappear. Some of the stresses are transmitted and transferred to other areas,resulting in stress concentration in some areas,which in turn affects the occurrence of earthquakes in the area. This is the idea of stress triggering of earthquakes.According to this hypothesis,the enhancement of Coulomb stress corresponds to the additional loading of the fault and promotes the occurrence of earthquakes; conversely,the weakening of the Coulomb stress in the stress shadow zone corresponds to partial unloading of the fault,which will delay the occurrence of the earthquake. In order to study the future seismic activity of North China,this paper estimates risks of future strong earthquakes in the region. To this end,we calculate the coseismic Coulomb stress changes and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation stresses of the events with MS≥6. 0 that occurred in the North China region since 1820,using elastic dislocation theory and hierarchical lithosphere model,respectively,in order to examine whether the cumulative Coulomb stress change can explain the spatiotemporal pattern of large earthquakes. Also we project the Coulomb stress change onto the specific active faults in North China and assign the present and future Coulomb stress change state to the faults to provide a dynamics reference for analyzing whether the areas will be hit by strong earthquakes in the future. The simulated results show that the effect caused by the effective friction coefficient changes is not significant on the spatial distribution of Coulomb stress changes induced by coseismic and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation effect of the medium of earthquakes in the North China region. Although the variation of the effective friction coefficient has an impact on the Coulomb stresses for some sections of faults,the general pattern of the spatial distribution of the Coulomb stress changes keeps unchanged. Consequently,19 of the 24 earthquakes since the 1888 Bohai Bay earthquake have fallen in the positive region of Coulomb stress changes,with a triggering rate of 79%.In particular,considering the seismogeological data and the Coulomb stress calculation results,we assume that Luanxian-Yueting Fault, Panzhuangxi Fault, Dongming-Chengwu Fault, Yuncheng Fault,Longyao Fault of Ninghe-Xinxiang seismic belt,the Yingkou-Weifang Fault of Tanlu seismic belt,the Xiadian Fault,and the Huangzhuang-Gaoliying Fault in the Capital area have higher seismic risk and deserve in-depth study.
In recent years,the Coulomb stress change induced by large earthquakes has attracted extensive attention in seismology. Many scientists at home and abroad have made remarkable achievements in the research on it. It is well known that North China is densely populated and industrially developed.More importantly,the Chinese capital city,Beijing,lies in the hinterland of North China. At the same time,there are abundant active faults and earthquakes in North China. The capital Beijing is China's political,economic,cultural,and transportation center. It is the center of all social activities and economic activities in the country,and is also a region where population,wealth,and information are highly concentrated. With the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the construction of Xiong'an New District,the consequences of big earthquake in Beijing and surrounding areas are unimaginable. Due to its special geographical location,frequent seismic activities in North China capture much attention. From the physical principle,the occurrence of earthquakes releases the accumulated stress,but the stress does not completely disappear. Some of the stresses are transmitted and transferred to other areas,resulting in stress concentration in some areas,which in turn affects the occurrence of earthquakes in the area. This is the idea of stress triggering of earthquakes.According to this hypothesis,the enhancement of Coulomb stress corresponds to the additional loading of the fault and promotes the occurrence of earthquakes; conversely,the weakening of the Coulomb stress in the stress shadow zone corresponds to partial unloading of the fault,which will delay the occurrence of the earthquake. In order to study the future seismic activity of North China,this paper estimates risks of future strong earthquakes in the region. To this end,we calculate the coseismic Coulomb stress changes and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation stresses of the events with MS≥6. 0 that occurred in the North China region since 1820,using elastic dislocation theory and hierarchical lithosphere model,respectively,in order to examine whether the cumulative Coulomb stress change can explain the spatiotemporal pattern of large earthquakes. Also we project the Coulomb stress change onto the specific active faults in North China and assign the present and future Coulomb stress change state to the faults to provide a dynamics reference for analyzing whether the areas will be hit by strong earthquakes in the future. The simulated results show that the effect caused by the effective friction coefficient changes is not significant on the spatial distribution of Coulomb stress changes induced by coseismic and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation effect of the medium of earthquakes in the North China region. Although the variation of the effective friction coefficient has an impact on the Coulomb stresses for some sections of faults,the general pattern of the spatial distribution of the Coulomb stress changes keeps unchanged. Consequently,19 of the 24 earthquakes since the 1888 Bohai Bay earthquake have fallen in the positive region of Coulomb stress changes,with a triggering rate of 79%.In particular,considering the seismogeological data and the Coulomb stress calculation results,we assume that Luanxian-Yueting Fault, Panzhuangxi Fault, Dongming-Chengwu Fault, Yuncheng Fault,Longyao Fault of Ninghe-Xinxiang seismic belt,the Yingkou-Weifang Fault of Tanlu seismic belt,the Xiadian Fault,and the Huangzhuang-Gaoliying Fault in the Capital area have higher seismic risk and deserve in-depth study.
引文
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郭良迁,马青,杨国华.2007.华北地区主要构造带的现代运动和应变[J].国际地震动态,(7):67-75.GUO Liang-qian,MA Qing,YANG Guo-hua.2007.Contemporary motion and strain of major tectonic zones in North China[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,(7):67-75(in Chinese).
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缪淼,朱守彪.2012.俯冲带上特大地震静态库仑应力变化对后续余震触发效果的研究[J].地球物理学报,55(9):2982-2993.MIAO Miao,ZHU Shou-biao.2012.A study of the impact of static Coulomb stress changes of megathrust earthquakes along subduction zone on the following aftershocks[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,55(9):2982-2993(in Chinese).
缪淼,朱守彪.2013.2013年芦山MS7.0地震产生的静态库仑应力变化及其对余震空间分布的影响[J].地震学报,35(5):619-631.MIAO Miao,ZHU Shou-biao.2013.The static Coulomb stress change of the 2013 Lushan MS7.0 earthquake and its impact on the spatial distribution of aftershocks[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,35(5):619-631(in Chinese).
缪淼,朱守彪.2016.2014年鲁甸地震(MS=6.5)静态库仑应力变化及其影响[J].地震地质,38(1):169-181.doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2016.01.013.MIAO Miao,ZHU Shou-biao.2016.The static Coulomb stress change of the 2014 Ludian earthquake and its influence on the aftershocks and surrounding faults[J].Seismology and Geology,38(1):169-181(in Chinese).
沈正康,万永革,甘卫军,等.2004.华北地区700年来地壳应力场演化与地震的关系研究[J].中国地震,20(3):211-228.SHEN Zheng-kang,WAN Yong-ge,GAN Wei-jun,et al.2004.Crustal stress evolution of the last 700 years in North China and earthquake occurrence[J].Earthquake Research in China,20(3):211-228(in Chinese).
石耀霖.2001.关于应力触发和应力影概念在地震预报中应用的一些思考[J].地震,21(3):1-7.SHI Yao-lin.2001.Stress triggers and stress shadows:How to apply these concepts to earthquake prediction[J].Earthquake,21(3):1-7(in Chinese).
孙荀英,刘激扬,王仁.1994.1976年唐山地震震时和震后变形的模拟[J].地球物理学报,37(1):45-55.SUN Xun-ying,LIU Ji-yang,WANG Ren.1994.The simulation of coseismic and postseismic crustal deformation due to Tangshan earthquake in 1976[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,37(1):45-55(in Chinese).
万永革,沈正康,曾跃华,等.2008.唐山地震序列应力触发的黏弹性力学模型研究[J].地震学报,30(6):581-593.WAN Yong-ge,SHEN Zheng-kang,ZENG Yue-hua,et al.2008.Study on visco-elastic stress triggering model of the1976 Tangshan earthquake sequence[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,30(6):581-593(in Chinese).
徐晶,邵志刚,刘静,等.2017.基于库仑应力变化分析巴颜喀拉地块东端的强震相互关系[J].地球物理学报,60(10):4056-4068.XU Jing,SHAO Zhi-gang,LIU-ZENG Jing,et al.2017.Analysis of interaction between great earthquakes in the eastern Bayan Har block based on changes of Coulomb stress[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,60(10):4056-4068(in Chinese).
徐锡伟,吴熙彦,于贵华,等.2017.中国大陆高震级地震危险区判定的地震地质学标志及其应用[J].地震地质,39(2):219-275.doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2017.02.001.XU Xi-wei,WU Xi-yan,YU Gui-hua,et al.2017.Seismo-geological signatures for identifying M≥7.0 earthquake risk areas and their preliminary application in mainland China[J].Seismology and Geology,39(2):219-275(in Chinese).
张先康,赵金仁,刘国华,等.2002.三河-平谷8.0级大震区震源细结构的深地震反射探测研究[J].中国地震,18(4):326-336.ZHANG Xian-kang,ZHAO Jin-ren,LIU Guo-hua,et al.2002.Study on fine structure of the Sanhe-Pinggu earthquake(M8.0)region by deep seismic reflection profiling[J].Earthquake Research in China,18(4):326-336(in Chinese).
张竹琪,陈永顺,林间.2008.1997年伽师震群中相邻正断层和走滑断层之间相互应力作用[J].中国科学(D辑),38(3):334-342.ZHANG Zhu-qi,CHEN Yong-shun,LIN Jian.2008.Stress interaction between normal fault and strike-slip fault in Jiashi earthquake group 1997[J].Science in China(Ser D),38(3):334-342(in Chinese).
朱守彪,缪淼.2016.地震触发研究中库仑应力随摩擦系数增加而增大的矛盾及其解决[J].地球物理学报,59(1):169-173.ZHU Shou-biao,MIAO Miao.2016.On the study of earthquake triggering:Solution to paradox that Coulomb stresses increase with frictional coefficients[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,59(1):169-173(in Chinese).
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