夏季南亚高压年代际变化及其对长江中下游降水的影响
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摘要
夏季南亚高压对我国长江中下游旱涝分布有重要影响,为深入认识长江中下游夏季降水年代际演变规律和机理,提高其短期气候预测水平,利用1960～2015年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和地面气象站降水资料,分析夏季南亚高压年代际变化及其对长江中下游降水的影响。结果表明:夏季南亚高压强度、面积、南界、东伸脊点、西伸脊点和脊线均存在显著的年代际变化,长江中下游夏季降水也有明显年代际转折,南亚高压脊线与长江中下游夏季降水相关最好,呈显著负相关。夏季南亚高压脊线年代际偏南期,南亚高压偏大偏强,长江中下游高层气流强,且形成发散;副高增强西伸,印度有稳定低压存在,长江中下游处于副高西北侧和西风槽前,盛行西南风,与北方来的偏西气流汇合;低层风场有明显切变和辐合,从孟湾、南海输送来的水汽在长江中下游辐合上升,导致降水偏多。1990s初至2000s初,夏季南亚高压年代际减弱西撤,副高减弱东撤,但由于两个高压减弱程度较小,长江中下游夏季降水仍偏多。
The South Asian high(SAH) in summer has an important effect on the distributions of drought and flood in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River. In order to understand the interdecadal evolution of summer precipitation over the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River and improve the short-term climate prediction level, interdecadal variation of the SAH in summer and its impact on precipitation in this region was analyzed by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and precipitation data from weather stations during 1960-2015. The results indicate that there were remarkably interdecadal abrupts for the summer SAH intensity, area, south border, east point, west point and ridge line. Meanwhile a remarkably interdecadal variation of the summer precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River also occurred. The SAH ridge line had the best correlation with the summer precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River, showing a significant negative correlation. During the periods of summer SAH ridge line interdecadal southern, the SAH was relatively large and strong, and the upper air flow in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River was strong and divergent. While the West Pacific Subtropical High increased westward extension, and there was a stable low pressure covered India. The Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River located in the northwest side of the subtropical high and in front of the westerly trough where the prevailing southwest wind met the westerly airflow. The wind field in the lower layer had obvious shear and convergence, and the water vapor transported from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea converged and rose in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River, resulting in heavy precipitation. From the early 1990 s to the early 2000 s, the summer SAH weakened and retreated in the west, while the subtropical high weakened in the east. However, due to the small degree of weakening of the two high pressures, the summer precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River was still relatively high.
The South Asian high(SAH) in summer has an important effect on the distributions of drought and flood in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River. In order to understand the interdecadal evolution of summer precipitation over the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River and improve the short-term climate prediction level, interdecadal variation of the SAH in summer and its impact on precipitation in this region was analyzed by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and precipitation data from weather stations during 1960-2015. The results indicate that there were remarkably interdecadal abrupts for the summer SAH intensity, area, south border, east point, west point and ridge line. Meanwhile a remarkably interdecadal variation of the summer precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River also occurred. The SAH ridge line had the best correlation with the summer precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River, showing a significant negative correlation. During the periods of summer SAH ridge line interdecadal southern, the SAH was relatively large and strong, and the upper air flow in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River was strong and divergent. While the West Pacific Subtropical High increased westward extension, and there was a stable low pressure covered India. The Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River located in the northwest side of the subtropical high and in front of the westerly trough where the prevailing southwest wind met the westerly airflow. The wind field in the lower layer had obvious shear and convergence, and the water vapor transported from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea converged and rose in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River, resulting in heavy precipitation. From the early 1990 s to the early 2000 s, the summer SAH weakened and retreated in the west, while the subtropical high weakened in the east. However, due to the small degree of weakening of the two high pressures, the summer precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River was still relatively high.
引文
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[5] 黄燕燕,钱永甫.长江流域、华北降水特征与南亚高压的关系分析[J].高原气象,2004,23(1):68-74.HUANG Y Y,QIAN Y F.Relationship between South Asian High and characteristic of precipitation in Mid-and Lower-Reaches of Yangtze River and North China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2004,23(1):68-74.
[6] 王文,孙畅,蔡晓军,等.南亚高压低频振荡与长江中下游地区旱涝的关系[J].地球科学进展,2016,31(5):529-541.WANG W,SUN C,CAI X J,et al.Relationship between South Asia high low frequency oscillation and the drought and flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Advances in Earth Science,2016,31(5):529-541.
[7] 陶诗言,朱福康.夏季亚洲南部100hPa流型的变化及其与西太平洋副热带高压进退的关系[J].气象学报,1964,34(4):385-396.TAO S Y,ZHU F K.The 100-MB flow patterns in southern Asia in summer and its relation to the advance and retreat of the West-Pacific Subtropical anticyclone over the Far East[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1964,34(4):385-396.
[8] 罗四维,钱正安,王谦谦.夏季100 hPa青藏高压与我国东部旱涝关系的天气气候研究[J].高原气象,1982,1(2):1-10.LUO S W,QIAN Z A,WANG Q Q.The climatic and synoptical study about the relation between the Qinghai-Xizang high pressure on the 100 MB surface and the flood and drought in East China in summer[J].Plateau Meteorology,1982,1(2):1-10.
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[10] 刘梅,胡洛林,濮梅娟,等.夏季南亚高压的演变及有关天气系统的响应研究[J].气象科学,2007,27(3):294-301.LIU M,HU L L,PU M J,et al.Study on change of South Asia High and response of other weather system during summer[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2007,27(3):294-301.
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[12] 彭丽霞,孙照渤,倪东鸿,等.夏季南亚高压年际变化及其与ENSO的关系[J].大气科学,2009,33(4):783-795.PENG L X,SUN Z B,NI D H,et al.Interannual variation of summer South Asia high and its association with ENSO[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2009,33(4):783-795.
[13] 王黎娟,郭帅宏,何金海,等.4～5月南亚高压建立早晚年份环流差异及其可能成因[J].大气科学,2013,37(6):1165-1178.WANG L J,GUO S H,HE J H,et al.Circulation differences and possible mechanism underlying the South Asia high establishment from April to May in the early or delayed establishment years[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2013,37(6):1165-1178.
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[15] 孙照渤,周航,彭丽霞,等.7月不同形态南亚高压与北半球大气环流的关系[J].大气科学学报,2016,39(5):577-588.SUN Z B,ZHOU H,PENG L X,et al.Relationships between different types of South Asia high and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in July[J].Trans Atmos Sci,2016,39(5):577-588.
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[17] 杨光,李崇银,谭言科.南亚高压强度的年代际变化及可能原因分析[J].热带气象学报,2013,29(4):529-539.YANG G,LI C Y,TAN Y K.A study on interdecadal variation of South Asia High and its possible cause[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2013,29(4):529-539.
[18] 彭丽霞,朱伟军,李忠贤,等.南亚髙压强度年代际变化及其与热带副热带海温关系[J].热带气象学报,2016,32(2):145-154.PENG L X,ZHU W J,LI Z X,et al.The interdecadal variation of South Asian High and its association with the SST of tropical and subtropical regions[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2016,32(2):145-154.
[19] 曾刚,张顾炜,武英娇,等.海表温度异常对南亚高压年代际变化影响的数值模拟[J].气象科学,2016,36(4):436-446.ZENG G,ZHANG G W,WU Y J,et al.Numerical simulation of sea surface temperature anomaly effect on the interdecadal variation of the South Asian high[J].Journal of the Meteorological Science,2016,36(4):436-446.
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