我国中部地区夏季干旱的多时间尺度特征及其环流、海温异常
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摘要
基于CRU逐月降水和NCEP/NCAR再分析等资料,利用集合经验模态分解(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD)方法,分析1948—2016年中国中部地区夏季降水变化的多时间尺度特征及其对应的环流、海温异常,进而解释不同时期影响干旱发生的背景场有何不同。结果表明,中部地区夏季降水以年际变化为主,周期长度为3.8 a和6.9 a,年代际和多年代际变化的方差贡献不足20%。然而,各时间尺度降水变化对不同时期干旱事件的贡献存在较大差异,1960s、1970s,降水年际变化偏弱,相反地,多年代际变化正处于负位相的极小值期;1980s、1990s,多年代际变化位相转正;2000s初,年际变化明显增强。此外,通过分析不同时间尺度降水变化对应的环流、海温背景场,发现热带印度洋海温异常及其引起的西北太平洋副热带高压的变化、大西洋北部海温异常激发的纬向波列以及贝加尔湖地区的阻塞活动、1970s末PDO位相转变伴随的东亚夏季风突变是分别解释降水年际、年代际和多年代际变化的主要原因,进而揭示影响中部地区夏季干旱发生的关键因子及其相对重要性。
Based on Climatic Research Unit(CRU) monthly precipitation and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets, different time-scale characteristics of precipitation variation in summer over central China and relevant atmospheric circulation and Sea Surface Temperature(SST) anomalies were analyzed using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD) method, and the different ambient fields affecting the drought in different period were further explained. The results indicate that the Interannual Variation(IAV) of summer precipitation over central China has cycle lengths of 3.8 and 6.9 years, and the Interdecadal and Multidecadal Variations(IDV and MDV) account for less than 20% of the total variance. However, different time scales have varying contributions to drought events in different periods: IAV is relatively weaker during 1960 s and 1970 s while MDV reaches the negative peak, but MDV turns into positive phase during 1980 s and 1990 s, and IAV has significantly increased at the beginning of the 21 st century. Moreover, through analyzing the atmospheric circulation and SST ambient field associated with different time-scale precipitation variations over central China, it is found that the SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and the resulting changes in the Northwest Pacific subtropical high, the zonal wave train excited by SST anomalies in northern Atlantic and the Lake Baikal blocks, and the abrupt change of East Asian summer monsoon accompanied with the PDO phase shift in the late 1970 s account for interannual, interdecadal and multidecadal changes in precipitation, respectively, which also reveal the main factors that affect the summer drought over central China during different periods.
Based on Climatic Research Unit(CRU) monthly precipitation and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets, different time-scale characteristics of precipitation variation in summer over central China and relevant atmospheric circulation and Sea Surface Temperature(SST) anomalies were analyzed using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD) method, and the different ambient fields affecting the drought in different period were further explained. The results indicate that the Interannual Variation(IAV) of summer precipitation over central China has cycle lengths of 3.8 and 6.9 years, and the Interdecadal and Multidecadal Variations(IDV and MDV) account for less than 20% of the total variance. However, different time scales have varying contributions to drought events in different periods: IAV is relatively weaker during 1960 s and 1970 s while MDV reaches the negative peak, but MDV turns into positive phase during 1980 s and 1990 s, and IAV has significantly increased at the beginning of the 21 st century. Moreover, through analyzing the atmospheric circulation and SST ambient field associated with different time-scale precipitation variations over central China, it is found that the SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and the resulting changes in the Northwest Pacific subtropical high, the zonal wave train excited by SST anomalies in northern Atlantic and the Lake Baikal blocks, and the abrupt change of East Asian summer monsoon accompanied with the PDO phase shift in the late 1970 s account for interannual, interdecadal and multidecadal changes in precipitation, respectively, which also reveal the main factors that affect the summer drought over central China during different periods.
引文
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[14] 马柱国.华北干旱化趋势及转折性变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系.科学通报,2007,52(10):1199-1206.MA Zhuguo.The interdecadal dry/wet trend and shift of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).Chinese Science Bulletin,2007,52(15):2130-2139.
[15] QIAN Cheng,ZHOU Tianjun.Multidecadal Variability of North China Aridity and Its Relationship to PDO during 1900-2010.J.Climate,2014,27(3):1210-1222.
[16] 黄荣辉,刘永,冯涛.20世纪90年代末中国东部夏季降水和环流的年代际变化特征及其内动力成因.科学通报,2013,58(8):617-628.HUANG Ronghui,LIU Yong,FENG Tao.Interdecadal change of summer precipitation over Eastern China around the late-1990s and associated circulation anomalies,internal dynamical causes.Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(12):1339-1349.
[17] Choi J W,Kim I G,Kim J Y,et al.The assessment of droughts in Northern China and Mongolian areas using PDSI and relevant large-scale environments.Int.J.Climatol.,2016,36(9):3259-3269.
[18] 李永华,徐海明,刘德.2006年夏季西南地区东部特大干旱及其大气环流异常.气象学报,2009,67(1):122-132.LI Yonghua,XU Haiming,LIU De.Features of the extremely severe drought in the east of Southwest China and anomalies of atmospheric circulation in summer 2006.Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese),2009,67(1):122-132.
[19] YANG Jing,GONG Daoyi,WANG Wenshan,et al.Extreme drought event of 2009/2010 over southwestern China.Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,2012,115(3-4):173-184.
[20] 张琼,吴国雄.长江流域大范围旱涝与南亚高压的关系.气象学报,2001,59(5):569-577.ZHANG Qiong,WU Guoxiong,The large area flood and drought over Yangtze River Valley and its relation to the South Asia High.Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese),2001,59(5):569-577.
[21] GAO Hui,YANG Song.A severe drought event in northern China in winter 2008—2009 and the possible influences of La Niňa and Tibetan Plateau.J.Geophys.Res.,2009,114(D24):D24104.
[22] ZHANG Wenjun,JIN Feifei,Turner A.Increasing autumn drought over southern China associated with ENSO regime shift.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2014,41(11):4020-4026.
[23] ZHANG Jie,LI L,LI Dongliang,et al.Summer droughts in the northern Yellow River basin in association with recent Arctic ice loss.Int.J.Climatol.,2015,35(10):2849-2859.
[24] 王林,陈文.近百年西南地区干旱的多时间尺度演变特征.气象科技进展,2012,2(4):21-26.WANG Lin,CHEN Wen.Characteristics of multi-timescale variabilities of the drought over last 100 years in Southwest China.Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology (in Chinese),2012,2(4):21-26.
[25] Harris I C,Jones P D.CRU TS3.25:Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version 3.25 of high-resolution gridded data of month-by-month variation in climate (Jan.1901-Dec.2016).Britain:NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre,2017.
[26] Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,1996,77(3):437-472.
[27] Rayner N A,Parker D E,Horton E B,et al.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century.J.Geophys.Res.,2003,108(D14):4407.
[28] WU Zhaohua,Huang N E.Ensemble empirical mode decomposition:a noise-assisted data analysis method.Adv.Adapt.Data Anal.,2009,1(1):1-41.
[29] 施能,顾骏强,黄先香,等.合成风场的统计检验和蒙特卡洛检验.大气科学,2004,28(6):950-956.SHI Neng,GU Junqiang,HUANG Xianxiang,et al.Significance test and Monte Carlo test used in composite analysis of window field and applications.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2004,28(6):950-956.
[30] WANG Huijun,HE Shengping.The North China/Northeastern Asia severe summer drought in 2014.J.Climate,2015,28(17):6667-6681.
[31] 苏源,吴立广.多时间尺度环流对热带气旋海棠(0505)路径的影响.气象科学,2011,31(3):237-246.SU Yuan,WU Liguang.Analysis of the multi-time scale circulation influences on the track of tropical cyclone Haitang (0505).Journal of the Meteorologica Sciences (in Chinese),2011,31(3):237-246.
[32] LI Shuanglin,LU Jian,HUANG Gang,et al.Tropical Indian Ocean basin warming and East Asian summer monsoon:a multiple AGCM study.J.Climate,2008,21(22):6080-6088.
[33] 王妍,钱明,朱伟军.夏季欧亚阻塞活动的年代际变化及其与我国降水的可能联系.南京气象学院学报,2006,29(5):591-598.WANG Yan,QIAN Ming,ZHU Weijun.Decadal characteristics of summer Eurasian blockings and its possible relation to precipitation over China.Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology (in Chinese),2006,29(5):591-598.
[34] XIAO Dong,LI Jianping.Spatial and temporal characteristics of the decadal abrupt changes of global atmosphere-ocean system in the 1970s.J.Geophys.Res.,2007,112(D24):D24S22.
[35] WANG Huijun.The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970's.Adv.Atmos.Sci.,2001,18(3):376-386.
[36] ZHOU Tianjun,GONG Daoyi,LI Jian,et al.Detecting and understanding the multi-decadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-Recent progress and state of affairs.Meteor.Z.,2009,18(4):455-467.
[37] ZHOU Tianjun,YU Rucong,LI Hongmei,et al.Ocean forcing to changes in global monsoon precipitation over the recent half-century.J.Climate,2008,21(15):3833-3852.
[38] LI Hongmei,DAI Aiguo,ZHOU Tianjun,et al.Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950—2000.Climate Dyn.,2010,34(4):501-514.
[39] 徐洪蕾,张铭.东亚南亚夏季降水对海温异常响应的数值模拟.气象科学,2005,25(4):331-337.XU Honglei,ZHANG Ming.Numerical experiment on the effect of the ssta in equatorial mid-pacific ocean in spring and winter on the summer precipitation in Asian monsoon region.Scientia Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese),2005,25(4):331-337.
[2] 江沛.“哀鸣四野痛灾黎”:1942—1943年河南旱灾述论.河南大学学报(社会科学版),2014,54(3):44-55.JIANG Pei.Disaster of the populace:Henan’s drought from 1942—1943.Journal of Henan University (Social Science) (in Chinese),2014,54(3):44-55.
[3] ZHANG Lixia,ZHOU Tianjun.Drought over East Asia:a review.J.Climate,2015,28(8):3375-3399.
[4] 马柱国,符淙斌.1951—2004年中国北方干旱化的基本事实.科学通报,2006,51(20):2429-2439.MA Zhuguo,FU Congbin.Some evidence of drying trend over northern China from 1951 to 2004.Chinese Science Bulletin,2006,51(23):2913-2925.
[5] DAI Aiguo.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models.Nat.Climate Change,2013,3(1):52-58.
[6] 梁泽学,江静.中国北方地区1961～2000年干旱半干旱化趋势.气象科学,2005,25(1):9-17.LIANG Zexue,JIANG Jing.Aridificational and semi-aridificational tendency of the northern China from 1961 to 2000.Scientia Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese),2005,25(1):9-17.
[7] 尹晗,李耀辉.我国西南干旱研究最新进展综述.干旱气象,2013,31(1):182-193.YIN Han,LI Yaohui.Summary of advance on drought study in Southwest China.Journal of Arid Meteorology (in Chinese),2013,31(1):182-193.
[8] 韩兰英,张强,姚玉璧,等.近60 a中国西南地区干旱灾害规律与成因.地理学报,2014,69(5):632-639.HAN Lanying,ZHANG Qiang,YAO Yubi,et al.Characteristics and origins of drought disasters in Southwest China in nearly 60 years.Acta Geographica Sinica (in Chinese),2014,69(5):632-639.
[9] WANG Lin,CHEN Wen,ZHOU Wen,et al.Drought in Southwest China:a review.Atmos.Oceanic Sci.Lett.,2015,8(6):339-344.
[10] 马柱国,黄刚,甘文强,等.近代中国北方干湿变化趋势的多时段特征.大气科学,2005,29(5):671-681.MA Zhuguo,HUANG Gang,GAN Wenqiang,et al.Multi-Scale temporal characteristics of the dryness/wetness over Northern China during the last century.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2005,29(5):671-681.
[11] 杨修群,谢倩,朱益民,等.华北降水年代际变化特征及相关的海气异常型.地球物理学报,2005,48(4):789-797.YANG Xiuqun,XIE Qian,ZHU Yimin,et al.Decadal-to-interdecadal variability of precipitation in North China and associated atmospheric and oceanic anomaly patterns.Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese),2005,48(4):789-797.
[12] SUN Shanlei,CHEN Haishan,JU Weimin,et al.On the coupling between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration:contributions to decadal drought anomalies in the Southwest China.Climate Dyn.,2017,48(11-12):3779-3797.
[13] 李新周,马柱国,刘晓东.中国北方干旱化年代际特征与大气环流的关系.大气科学,2006,30(2):277-284.LI Xinzhou,MA Zhuguo,LIU Xiaodong.Inter-decadal characteristics of aridification over Northern China associated with the variation of atmospheric circulation during the past 50 years.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2006,30(2):277-284.
[14] 马柱国.华北干旱化趋势及转折性变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系.科学通报,2007,52(10):1199-1206.MA Zhuguo.The interdecadal dry/wet trend and shift of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).Chinese Science Bulletin,2007,52(15):2130-2139.
[15] QIAN Cheng,ZHOU Tianjun.Multidecadal Variability of North China Aridity and Its Relationship to PDO during 1900-2010.J.Climate,2014,27(3):1210-1222.
[16] 黄荣辉,刘永,冯涛.20世纪90年代末中国东部夏季降水和环流的年代际变化特征及其内动力成因.科学通报,2013,58(8):617-628.HUANG Ronghui,LIU Yong,FENG Tao.Interdecadal change of summer precipitation over Eastern China around the late-1990s and associated circulation anomalies,internal dynamical causes.Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(12):1339-1349.
[17] Choi J W,Kim I G,Kim J Y,et al.The assessment of droughts in Northern China and Mongolian areas using PDSI and relevant large-scale environments.Int.J.Climatol.,2016,36(9):3259-3269.
[18] 李永华,徐海明,刘德.2006年夏季西南地区东部特大干旱及其大气环流异常.气象学报,2009,67(1):122-132.LI Yonghua,XU Haiming,LIU De.Features of the extremely severe drought in the east of Southwest China and anomalies of atmospheric circulation in summer 2006.Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese),2009,67(1):122-132.
[19] YANG Jing,GONG Daoyi,WANG Wenshan,et al.Extreme drought event of 2009/2010 over southwestern China.Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,2012,115(3-4):173-184.
[20] 张琼,吴国雄.长江流域大范围旱涝与南亚高压的关系.气象学报,2001,59(5):569-577.ZHANG Qiong,WU Guoxiong,The large area flood and drought over Yangtze River Valley and its relation to the South Asia High.Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese),2001,59(5):569-577.
[21] GAO Hui,YANG Song.A severe drought event in northern China in winter 2008—2009 and the possible influences of La Niňa and Tibetan Plateau.J.Geophys.Res.,2009,114(D24):D24104.
[22] ZHANG Wenjun,JIN Feifei,Turner A.Increasing autumn drought over southern China associated with ENSO regime shift.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2014,41(11):4020-4026.
[23] ZHANG Jie,LI L,LI Dongliang,et al.Summer droughts in the northern Yellow River basin in association with recent Arctic ice loss.Int.J.Climatol.,2015,35(10):2849-2859.
[24] 王林,陈文.近百年西南地区干旱的多时间尺度演变特征.气象科技进展,2012,2(4):21-26.WANG Lin,CHEN Wen.Characteristics of multi-timescale variabilities of the drought over last 100 years in Southwest China.Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology (in Chinese),2012,2(4):21-26.
[25] Harris I C,Jones P D.CRU TS3.25:Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version 3.25 of high-resolution gridded data of month-by-month variation in climate (Jan.1901-Dec.2016).Britain:NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre,2017.
[26] Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,1996,77(3):437-472.
[27] Rayner N A,Parker D E,Horton E B,et al.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century.J.Geophys.Res.,2003,108(D14):4407.
[28] WU Zhaohua,Huang N E.Ensemble empirical mode decomposition:a noise-assisted data analysis method.Adv.Adapt.Data Anal.,2009,1(1):1-41.
[29] 施能,顾骏强,黄先香,等.合成风场的统计检验和蒙特卡洛检验.大气科学,2004,28(6):950-956.SHI Neng,GU Junqiang,HUANG Xianxiang,et al.Significance test and Monte Carlo test used in composite analysis of window field and applications.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2004,28(6):950-956.
[30] WANG Huijun,HE Shengping.The North China/Northeastern Asia severe summer drought in 2014.J.Climate,2015,28(17):6667-6681.
[31] 苏源,吴立广.多时间尺度环流对热带气旋海棠(0505)路径的影响.气象科学,2011,31(3):237-246.SU Yuan,WU Liguang.Analysis of the multi-time scale circulation influences on the track of tropical cyclone Haitang (0505).Journal of the Meteorologica Sciences (in Chinese),2011,31(3):237-246.
[32] LI Shuanglin,LU Jian,HUANG Gang,et al.Tropical Indian Ocean basin warming and East Asian summer monsoon:a multiple AGCM study.J.Climate,2008,21(22):6080-6088.
[33] 王妍,钱明,朱伟军.夏季欧亚阻塞活动的年代际变化及其与我国降水的可能联系.南京气象学院学报,2006,29(5):591-598.WANG Yan,QIAN Ming,ZHU Weijun.Decadal characteristics of summer Eurasian blockings and its possible relation to precipitation over China.Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology (in Chinese),2006,29(5):591-598.
[34] XIAO Dong,LI Jianping.Spatial and temporal characteristics of the decadal abrupt changes of global atmosphere-ocean system in the 1970s.J.Geophys.Res.,2007,112(D24):D24S22.
[35] WANG Huijun.The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970's.Adv.Atmos.Sci.,2001,18(3):376-386.
[36] ZHOU Tianjun,GONG Daoyi,LI Jian,et al.Detecting and understanding the multi-decadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-Recent progress and state of affairs.Meteor.Z.,2009,18(4):455-467.
[37] ZHOU Tianjun,YU Rucong,LI Hongmei,et al.Ocean forcing to changes in global monsoon precipitation over the recent half-century.J.Climate,2008,21(15):3833-3852.
[38] LI Hongmei,DAI Aiguo,ZHOU Tianjun,et al.Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950—2000.Climate Dyn.,2010,34(4):501-514.
[39] 徐洪蕾,张铭.东亚南亚夏季降水对海温异常响应的数值模拟.气象科学,2005,25(4):331-337.XU Honglei,ZHANG Ming.Numerical experiment on the effect of the ssta in equatorial mid-pacific ocean in spring and winter on the summer precipitation in Asian monsoon region.Scientia Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese),2005,25(4):331-337.
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