预测复杂装备研制费用的GM(0,N)模型
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摘要
针对横截面数据的复杂装备研制费用预测问题,研究了GM(0,N)模型的稳定性,证明了当样本较少时,GM(0,N)模型相对稳定。依据所提出的相似度对原始数据排序,在此基础上建立GM(0,N)模型,与待预测对象越相似的样本数据对GM(0,N)模型解的影响越敏感,从敏感性角度说明与待预测对象越相似的样本数据,其影响权重越大。由于相关因素相似的装备往往产生趋同的研制费用,充分利用与待预测对象相似的样本数据,有助于提高预测精度。通过实例说明了本模型的实用性与有效性。
Complicated equipment development cost forecasting of the cross section data is studied,the GM(0,N)model is relatively stable when the sample is small.The data is sorted according to the similarity degree proposed,then GM(0,N)model is established,the more similar to the prediction the object sample data,the more sensitive to GM(0,N)model,the greater weight GM(0,N)model determine from the angle of sensitivity.Due to the similar equipment often produce similar development costs,making full use of the similar sample data to prediction object is helpful to improve the forecasting accuracy.The practical example is given to illustrate the practicability and validity of this model.
Complicated equipment development cost forecasting of the cross section data is studied,the GM(0,N)model is relatively stable when the sample is small.The data is sorted according to the similarity degree proposed,then GM(0,N)model is established,the more similar to the prediction the object sample data,the more sensitive to GM(0,N)model,the greater weight GM(0,N)model determine from the angle of sensitivity.Due to the similar equipment often produce similar development costs,making full use of the similar sample data to prediction object is helpful to improve the forecasting accuracy.The practical example is given to illustrate the practicability and validity of this model.
引文
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[2]Deng S,Yeh Tsung-Han.Using least squares support vector machines for the airframe structures manufacturing cost estimation[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2011,131(2):701-708.
[3]Curran R,Castagne S,Early J.Aircraft cost modelling using the genetic causal technique within a systems engineering approach[J].Aeronautical Journal,2007,111(21):409-420.
[4]Lin T,Lee J W,Lwin T.Integrated approach for rotor blade manufacturing cost estimate[J].Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology,2011,83(4):235-244.
[5]Hart C G,He Z,Sbragio R,et al.An advanced cost estimation methodology for engineering systems[J].Systems Engineering,2012,15(1):28-40.
[6]Trivailo O,Sippel M,Sekercioglu V A.Review of hardware cost estimation methods,models and tools applied to early phases of space mission planning[J].Progress in Aerospace Science,2012,53:1-17.
[7]何莎伟,刘思峰,方志耕.基于I-GM(0,N)模型的干线客机价格预测方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(8):1761-1707.
[8]杨青,汪亮,叶定友,等.一种改进的导弹费用估算方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2002,24(4):12-15.
[9]孙兆辉,白思俊,刘丽华.基于聚类分析和灰色模型的固体火箭发动机价格模型研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(8):114-118.
[10]韩晓明,姜科,张琳,等.基于灰色神经网络武器装备研制费用预测模型[J].现代防御技术,2011,39(4):184-188.
[11]顾晓辉,王晓鸣.残差修正的弹箭系统研制费用估算模型研究[J].系统工程与电子技术,2003,25(6):60-61.
[12]戴华.矩阵论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
[13]刘建.航天型号寿命周期费用估算及报价系统研究与实现[D].长沙:国防科学技术大学,2004.
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