资源枯竭城市转型发展绩效评价及障碍因子诊断——以湖北大冶为例
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摘要
转型发展绩效评价及障碍因子诊断,是资源枯竭城市实现可持续发展的重要基础及依据。根据转型发展的内涵,从经济发展、民生改善、资源利用、环境整治、产业转型五个方面构建评价指标体系,采用改进的TOPSIS方法,以湖北大冶市为例,评价2007-2016年转型发展的绩效并诊断障碍因子。结果表明:(1)大冶转型发展取得了显著成效,十年转型发展绩效分值均在0.9以上,总体呈两个阶段:2007-2010年为转型初期,产业接替阶段,发展绩效不稳定,由2007年的0.9976升至2008年的0.9998,2010年下滑至0.9098;2011-2016年为稳定转型发展期,绩效稳步提升,由0.9142升至0.9458。(2)影响大冶转型发展的主要障碍因子排序十年一致,障碍度从强到弱依次为:矿山地质灾害隐患点数量、城镇登记失业率、高技术产业增加值占GDP比例、工业固体废物综合利用率、农村居民人均可支配收入和地方财政一般预算收入。根据评价结果,提出了大冶市今后转型发展的工作建议。
The performance evaluation of transformation and the diagnosis of obstacle factors are important basis for sustainable development of resource-exhausted cities. Based on the connotation of transitional development, this paper constructed an evaluation index system from the aspects of economic development, improvement of people's livelihood, resource utilization, environmental remediation and industrial transformation. The improved TOPSIS method was used to evaluate the rationality of transitional development and obstacle factors of Daye city in Hubei province from 2007 to 2016. The results show that:(1) Daye city has made remarkable achievements in transitional development, and the performance evaluation scores of the 10-year transformation are above 0.9 from 2007 to 2016. Two phases are identified, 2007-2010 and 2011-2016. The first stage witnessed the beginning of the transition, and industrial succession, and the performance was unstable, from 0.9976 in 2007 to 0.9998 in 2008, and fell to 0.9098 in 2010. The second stage is a period of stable transformation, and the performance of transitional development was steadily improved, during which evaluation scores increased from 0.9142 to 0.9458.(2) The main obstacle factors affecting the transformation and development of Daye are consistent in the ten years. The order of obstacle degree of factors from strong to weak is: the number of hidden danger points of mine geological disasters, urban registered unemployment rate, the added value of high-tech industry to GDP, and the comprehensive utilization of industrial solid waste, per capita disposable income of rural residents and general budgetary revenue of local finance. Based on the evaluation results, the work proposal for the future transitional development of Daye city was put forward.
The performance evaluation of transformation and the diagnosis of obstacle factors are important basis for sustainable development of resource-exhausted cities. Based on the connotation of transitional development, this paper constructed an evaluation index system from the aspects of economic development, improvement of people's livelihood, resource utilization, environmental remediation and industrial transformation. The improved TOPSIS method was used to evaluate the rationality of transitional development and obstacle factors of Daye city in Hubei province from 2007 to 2016. The results show that:(1) Daye city has made remarkable achievements in transitional development, and the performance evaluation scores of the 10-year transformation are above 0.9 from 2007 to 2016. Two phases are identified, 2007-2010 and 2011-2016. The first stage witnessed the beginning of the transition, and industrial succession, and the performance was unstable, from 0.9976 in 2007 to 0.9998 in 2008, and fell to 0.9098 in 2010. The second stage is a period of stable transformation, and the performance of transitional development was steadily improved, during which evaluation scores increased from 0.9142 to 0.9458.(2) The main obstacle factors affecting the transformation and development of Daye are consistent in the ten years. The order of obstacle degree of factors from strong to weak is: the number of hidden danger points of mine geological disasters, urban registered unemployment rate, the added value of high-tech industry to GDP, and the comprehensive utilization of industrial solid waste, per capita disposable income of rural residents and general budgetary revenue of local finance. Based on the evaluation results, the work proposal for the future transitional development of Daye city was put forward.
引文
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[8] TIMOTHY U, KEI M Y, JING Z. Structural change in an open economy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2013, 6:667-682.
[9] PENG K. An application of system dynamics for evaluating planning alternatives to guide a green industrial transformation in a resource-based city. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015, 104:403-412.
[10] DAWUD A. Resource curse contagion in the case of Yemen. Resources Policy, 2016, 49:444-454.
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[14]杜辉.资源型城市可持续发展保障的策略转换与制度构造.中国人口·资源与环境, 2013, 23(2):88-93.[DU H. On the strategy conversion and system formulation on the sustainable development of the resource-based cities. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2013, 23(2):88-93.]
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[17]张文忠,余建辉,李佳洺.资源枯竭城市转型的驱动因素和机理解析.中国社会科学院院刊, 2016, 31(1):92-100.[ZHANG W Z, YU J H, LI J M. Drive factors and mechanism of resource-exhausted city transformation. Journal of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 2016, 31(1):92-100.]
[18]郭存芝,罗琳琳,叶明.资源型城市可持续发展影响因素的实证分析.中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(8):81-89.[GUO C Z, LUO L L, YE M. Empirical analysis of factors influencing the sustainable development of resource-based cities. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(8):81-89.]
[19]张宏军,高志刚.基于可持续发展能力评价的资源性城市产业转型研究:以新疆克拉玛依为例.干旱区地理, 2005,28(3):409-413.[ZHANG H J, GAO Z G. Problems of industry transformation based on sustainable development ability of resource-based city:A case study on Karamay city, Xinjiang. Arid Land Geography, 2005, 28(3):409-413.]
[20]李春花,罗正霞,黄芸玛.基于能值理论的资源型城市生态经济系统质量评价.青海师范大学学报:自然科学版,2009,(1):48-52.[LI C H, LUO Z X, HUANG Y M. Emergy analysis of eco-economic system quality in resource-based city. Journal of Qinghai Normal University:Natural Science Edition, 2009,(1):48-52.]
[21]陈晨,夏显力.基于生态足迹模型的西部资源型城市可持续发展评价.水土保持研究, 2012, 19(1):197-201.[CHEN C, XIA X L. Assessment on sustainable development status of western resource-based cities based on the ecological footprint model. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2012, 19(1):197-201.]
[22]曹志国,赵怡晴,袁锋,等.基于能值理论的中国矿业城市发展程度分析.中国人口·资源与环境, 2010, 20(3):56-61.[CAO Z G, ZHAO Y Q, YUAN F, et al. Analysis on development degree of mining cities of China based on emergy theory. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2010, 20(3):56-61.]
[23]穆东,杜志平.资源型区域协同发展评价研究.中国软科学, 2005,(5):106-113.[MU D, DU Z P. Evaluation research on resource-based regions'synergetic development. China Soft Science, 2005,(5):106-113.]
[24]李惠娟,龙如银,兰新萍.资源型城市的生态效率评价.资源科学, 2010, 32(7):1296-1300.[LI H J, LONG R Y, LAN X P. Assessment for eco-efficiency of resource-based cities. Resources Science, 2010, 32(7):1296-1300.]
[25]李惠娟,龙如银.资源型城市环境库兹涅茨曲线研究:基于面板数据的实证分析.自然资源学报, 2013, 28(1):19-26.[LI H J, LONG R Y. Environmental Kuznets Curve of resource-based cities in China:An empirical research based on panel data. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(1):19-26.]
[26]马晓河.“中等收入陷阱”的国际观照和中国策略.改革, 2011,(11):5-16.[MA X H. International experience of striding over the middle imcome trap and China's strategies. Reform, 2011,(11):5-16.]
[27] ZHENG W P, ZU R D, ZHONG L W. Nanobelts of semiconducting oxides. Science, 2001, 291(5):1947-1949.
[28]胡永宏.对TOPSIS法用于综合评价的改进.数学的实践与认识, 2002, 32(4):572-575.[HU Y H. The improved method for TOPSIS in comprehensive evaluation. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2002, 32(4):572-575.]
[29]鲁春阳,文枫,杨庆媛,等.基于改进TOPSIS法的城市土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子诊断:以重庆市为例.资源科学, 2011, 33(3):535-541.[LU C Y, WEN F, YANG Q Y, et al. An evaluation of urban land use performance based on the improved TOPSIS method and diagnosis of its obstacle indicators:A case study of Chongqing. Resources Science,2011, 33(3):535-541.]
[30]余建辉,张文忠,王岱.中国资源枯竭城市的转型效果评价.自然资源学报, 2011, 26(1):1-11.[YU J H, ZHANG W Z, WANG D. Evaluation of the China's resource-exhausted cities'transformation effect. Journal of Natural Resources,2011, 26(1):1-11.]
[2] INNIS H A, KNOWLES L C A, KNOWLES C M. The economic development of the British overseas empire:II. Comparative view of dominion problems, Canada. Foreign Affairs, 1930, 3(1):164-166.
[3] ROBINSON J. Highways and our environment. Quarterly Review of Biology, 1970, 2(7):220-222.
[4] LUCASREX A. Miningtown, Milltown, Railtown:Life in Canadian Communities of Single Industry. Toronto:University of Toronto Press, 1972.
[5] BRADBURY J H. The impact of industrial cycles in the mining sector. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 1984, 8(3):311-331.
[6] HUBBERT M K. The world's evolving energy system. American Journal of Physics, 1981, 49(11):1007-1029.
[7] MATTHEW T, PAUl P, MISTY L. Socio-economic wellbeing in Australian mining towns:A comparative analysis. Journal of Rural Studies, 2012, 28(3):288-301.
[8] TIMOTHY U, KEI M Y, JING Z. Structural change in an open economy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2013, 6:667-682.
[9] PENG K. An application of system dynamics for evaluating planning alternatives to guide a green industrial transformation in a resource-based city. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015, 104:403-412.
[10] DAWUD A. Resource curse contagion in the case of Yemen. Resources Policy, 2016, 49:444-454.
[11]沈镭,程静.论矿业城市经济发展中的优势转换战略.经济地理, 1998, 18(2):41-45.[SHEN L, CHENG J. On the strategy of advantage transformation in the economic development of minin cities. Economic Geography, 1998, 18(2):41-45.]
[12]张雷.矿产资源开发与国家工业化.北京:商务印书馆, 2004.[ZHANG L. Mineral Resources Development and National Industrialization. Beijing:The Commercial Press, 2004.]
[13]张友祥,支大林,程林.论资源型城市可持续发展应处理好的几个关系.经济学动态, 2012,(4):80-83.[ZHANG Y X, ZHI D L, CHENG L. On several relations to deal with for sustainable development of resource-based cities. Economic Perspectives, 2012,(4):80-83.]
[14]杜辉.资源型城市可持续发展保障的策略转换与制度构造.中国人口·资源与环境, 2013, 23(2):88-93.[DU H. On the strategy conversion and system formulation on the sustainable development of the resource-based cities. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2013, 23(2):88-93.]
[15]余建辉,张文忠,王岱,等.资源枯竭城市转型成效测度研究.资源科学, 2013, 35(9):1812-1820.[YU J H, ZHANG W Z, WANG D, et al. The effect of resource-exhausted city transformation. Resources Science, 2013, 35(9):1812-1820.]
[16]郭淑芬,马宇红.资源型区域可持续发展能力测度研究.中国人口·资源与环境, 2017, 27(7):72-79.[GUO S F, MA Y H. Comprehensive evaluation for sustainable development capacity of resource-based region. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2017, 27(7):72-79.]
[17]张文忠,余建辉,李佳洺.资源枯竭城市转型的驱动因素和机理解析.中国社会科学院院刊, 2016, 31(1):92-100.[ZHANG W Z, YU J H, LI J M. Drive factors and mechanism of resource-exhausted city transformation. Journal of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 2016, 31(1):92-100.]
[18]郭存芝,罗琳琳,叶明.资源型城市可持续发展影响因素的实证分析.中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(8):81-89.[GUO C Z, LUO L L, YE M. Empirical analysis of factors influencing the sustainable development of resource-based cities. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(8):81-89.]
[19]张宏军,高志刚.基于可持续发展能力评价的资源性城市产业转型研究:以新疆克拉玛依为例.干旱区地理, 2005,28(3):409-413.[ZHANG H J, GAO Z G. Problems of industry transformation based on sustainable development ability of resource-based city:A case study on Karamay city, Xinjiang. Arid Land Geography, 2005, 28(3):409-413.]
[20]李春花,罗正霞,黄芸玛.基于能值理论的资源型城市生态经济系统质量评价.青海师范大学学报:自然科学版,2009,(1):48-52.[LI C H, LUO Z X, HUANG Y M. Emergy analysis of eco-economic system quality in resource-based city. Journal of Qinghai Normal University:Natural Science Edition, 2009,(1):48-52.]
[21]陈晨,夏显力.基于生态足迹模型的西部资源型城市可持续发展评价.水土保持研究, 2012, 19(1):197-201.[CHEN C, XIA X L. Assessment on sustainable development status of western resource-based cities based on the ecological footprint model. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2012, 19(1):197-201.]
[22]曹志国,赵怡晴,袁锋,等.基于能值理论的中国矿业城市发展程度分析.中国人口·资源与环境, 2010, 20(3):56-61.[CAO Z G, ZHAO Y Q, YUAN F, et al. Analysis on development degree of mining cities of China based on emergy theory. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2010, 20(3):56-61.]
[23]穆东,杜志平.资源型区域协同发展评价研究.中国软科学, 2005,(5):106-113.[MU D, DU Z P. Evaluation research on resource-based regions'synergetic development. China Soft Science, 2005,(5):106-113.]
[24]李惠娟,龙如银,兰新萍.资源型城市的生态效率评价.资源科学, 2010, 32(7):1296-1300.[LI H J, LONG R Y, LAN X P. Assessment for eco-efficiency of resource-based cities. Resources Science, 2010, 32(7):1296-1300.]
[25]李惠娟,龙如银.资源型城市环境库兹涅茨曲线研究:基于面板数据的实证分析.自然资源学报, 2013, 28(1):19-26.[LI H J, LONG R Y. Environmental Kuznets Curve of resource-based cities in China:An empirical research based on panel data. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(1):19-26.]
[26]马晓河.“中等收入陷阱”的国际观照和中国策略.改革, 2011,(11):5-16.[MA X H. International experience of striding over the middle imcome trap and China's strategies. Reform, 2011,(11):5-16.]
[27] ZHENG W P, ZU R D, ZHONG L W. Nanobelts of semiconducting oxides. Science, 2001, 291(5):1947-1949.
[28]胡永宏.对TOPSIS法用于综合评价的改进.数学的实践与认识, 2002, 32(4):572-575.[HU Y H. The improved method for TOPSIS in comprehensive evaluation. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2002, 32(4):572-575.]
[29]鲁春阳,文枫,杨庆媛,等.基于改进TOPSIS法的城市土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子诊断:以重庆市为例.资源科学, 2011, 33(3):535-541.[LU C Y, WEN F, YANG Q Y, et al. An evaluation of urban land use performance based on the improved TOPSIS method and diagnosis of its obstacle indicators:A case study of Chongqing. Resources Science,2011, 33(3):535-541.]
[30]余建辉,张文忠,王岱.中国资源枯竭城市的转型效果评价.自然资源学报, 2011, 26(1):1-11.[YU J H, ZHANG W Z, WANG D. Evaluation of the China's resource-exhausted cities'transformation effect. Journal of Natural Resources,2011, 26(1):1-11.]
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