我国山洪灾害监测现状与发展趋势
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摘要
山洪灾害包括山洪及由山洪诱发的滑坡、泥石流,常常造成巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡。目前,监测作为最主要的非工程手段已广泛运用于山洪灾害防治工作中,为预警提供了直接依据。该文首先评价了监测预警实施效果,然后从监测要素、临界雨量、监测设备与台站系统和相关法律法规4个方面详细评述了山洪灾害监测现状与主要进展,总结出监测当存在监测系统寿命与灾害频率不匹配、临界雨量选取困难、监测要素和设备有限3个问题。最后提出当前山洪灾害监测的发展趋势为多要素立体化监测及新技术的融合运用、布设适应流域水文特点的站点、建立山洪灾害监测预警标准化体系。
Flash flood disasters include the triggered landslide disasters,which often cause enormous economic losses and casualties. As the most important non-engineering measure of present,monitoring has been widely used for disaster mitigation,which provide direct data for early warming. Firstly,the monitoring and early warning effects were evaluated. Then the status and main progress of flash flood disaster monitoring are reviewed in detail from four aspects: monitoring elements,critical rainfall,monitoring equipment and station system,and related laws and regulations. Four problems in the monitoring system were summarized: mismatch between monitoring system life and disaster frequency,difficulty in selecting critical rainfall,and limited in monitoring elements and equipment. Finally,the development trend of flash flood disaster monitoring is put forward: multi-factor three-dimensional monitoring and the integration and application of new technology,the establishment of stations adapted to the hydrological characteristics of the river basin,and the building of the flash flood disaster monitoring and warning standardization system.
Flash flood disasters include the triggered landslide disasters,which often cause enormous economic losses and casualties. As the most important non-engineering measure of present,monitoring has been widely used for disaster mitigation,which provide direct data for early warming. Firstly,the monitoring and early warning effects were evaluated. Then the status and main progress of flash flood disaster monitoring are reviewed in detail from four aspects: monitoring elements,critical rainfall,monitoring equipment and station system,and related laws and regulations. Four problems in the monitoring system were summarized: mismatch between monitoring system life and disaster frequency,difficulty in selecting critical rainfall,and limited in monitoring elements and equipment. Finally,the development trend of flash flood disaster monitoring is put forward: multi-factor three-dimensional monitoring and the integration and application of new technology,the establishment of stations adapted to the hydrological characteristics of the river basin,and the building of the flash flood disaster monitoring and warning standardization system.
引文
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[6]陈晓清,游勇,崔鹏,等.汶川地震区特大泥石流工程防治新技术探索[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2013,45(1):14-22
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[15] Hapuarachchi H A P,WANG Q J,Pagano T C. A review of advances in flash flood forecasting[J]. Hydrological Processes,2011,25(18):2771-2784.
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[23]杜克胜,赵映东,谢建丽,等洮河流域纳纳河山洪灾害临界雨量分析计算[J].中国防汛抗旱,2013(4):11-13.
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[25]江锦红,邵利萍.基于降雨观测资料的山洪预警标准[J].水利学报,2010,41(4):458-463.
[26]赵然杭,王敏,陆小蕾.山洪灾害雨量预警指标确定方法研究[J].水电能源科学,2011(9):49-53.
[27]李德,陈广才,谢平,等.乌鲁木齐市无资料地区山洪泥石流临界雨量推求[J].干旱区地理,2005,28(4):441-444.
[28]王仁乔,周月华,王丽,等.湖北省山洪灾害临界雨量及降雨区划研究[J].高原气象,2006,25(2):330-334.
[29]秦毅,陈星星,曾杉.山洪灾害预警雨量指标讨论及在无资料地区的确定[J].长江科学院院报,2018,35(6):42-46.
[30]叶勇,王振宇,范波芹.浙江省小流域山洪灾害临界雨量确定方法分析[J].水文,2008,28(1):56-58.
[31]刘媛媛,胡昌伟,张红萍,等.资料匮乏地区山洪灾害临界雨量确定方法分析[J].水利水电技术,2014,45(8):15-17.
[32]张玉龙,王龙,李靖,等.云南省山洪灾害临界雨量空间插值分析方法研究[J].云南农业大学学报,2007,22(4):570-573.
[33]童杨斌.无资料地区洪水计算与不确定性研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2008.
[34]马美红,黄先龙,何秉顺,等. 2015年中国山洪灾害特点及减灾效益分析[J].人民黄河,2019,41(1):23-27.
[35]何秉顺,李青.山洪灾害防御技术现状与发展趋势探索[J].中国水利,2014(18):11-13.
[36]中国水利水电科学研究院.中国山洪灾害调查评价关键技术及应用[J].中国防汛抗旱,2018,28(11):7-11.
[37]第九届全国人大常务委员会.中华人民共和国水法[S]. 2016-07-02.
[38]全国人民代表大会常务委员会.中华人民共和国水土保持法[S]. 2010-12-15.
[39]第八届全国人大常务委员会.中华人民共和国防洪法[S].1998-01-01.
[40]中华人民共和国国务院中华人民共和国防汛条例[S]. 2005-07-15
[41]刘洁.新中国防洪抗旱法律法规建设[J].中国防汛抗旱,2009(S1):11-14.
[42]洪文婷.洪水灾害风险管理制度研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2012.
[43]扎西平措.洪水灾害风险管理制度的现状与对策探索[J].产业与科技论坛,2015(24):188-189.
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[46] CHEN Ning sheng,Javed Iqbal TANOLI,HU Gui sheng,et al.Outlining a stepwise,multi-parameter debris flow monitoring and warning system:an example of application in Aizi Valley,China[J]. Journal of Mountain Science,2016,13(9):1527-1543
[47]乔建平.降雨型滑坡泥石流监测预警研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2018
[48]张之贤,张强,赵庆云,等“8. 8”舟曲特大山洪泥石流灾害天气特征分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(1):290-297.
[49]狄潇泓,吉惠敏,肖玮,等“8. 8”舟曲特大泥石流天气背景分析[J].安徽农业科学,2013(12).
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