2017年5月11日新疆塔什库尔干5.5级地震生命损失评估对比分析

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英文篇名：Comparative Analysis of Life Loss Assessment Caused by 2017 M_S5.5 Taxkorgan Earthquake in Xinjiang,China 作者：丁香 ; 王晓青 ; 袁小祥 ; 窦爱霞 英文作者：Ding Xiang;Wang Xiaoqing;Yuan Xiaoxiang;Dou Aixia;Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration; 关键词：塔什库尔干地震 ; 生命损失评估 ; 地震影响场 ; 人口分布 英文关键词：Earthquake of Taxkorgan in Xinjiang;;Life loss assessment;;Seismic intensity distribution;;Population distribution 中文刊名：ZZFY 英文刊名：Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention 机构：中国地震局地震预测研究所; 出版日期：2019-06-15 出版单位：震灾防御技术 年：2019 期：v.14 基金：科技部国家重点研发项目(2017YFB0504104) 语种：中文; 页：ZZFY201902016 页数：7 CN：02 ISSN：11-5429/P 分类号：178-184

摘要

2017年5月11日,新疆喀什地区塔什库尔干县发生5.5级地震。地震造成8人死亡、31人受伤以及财产损失,属于典型的"小震大灾"。按照一般的地震灾害损失快速评估方法,得到的评估结果与实际结果差别较大。为探讨评估结果偏离的原因,本文对不同地震损失评估方案进行比较分析,探讨了地震致灾性(地震影响场分布)、承灾体(人口)分布等因素对地震损失评估结果的影响。结果表明在此次地震快速评估中,基于宏观震中确定的地震影响场较微观震中更接近实际分布;地震烈度衰减的平均估计模型给出的地震烈度区面积明显小于实际面积;极震区存在抗震能力相对低的土木、砖木结构房屋,是造成该地震震级相对小而生命损失相对大的"小震大灾"的重要原因。对比分析结果表明,提高人口、房屋建筑等风险暴露数据的空间精准性,改善地震震中定位与地震影响场估计的准确性,将有助于提高地震应急损失评估的准确性。
        An M_S5.5 earthquake struck Taxkorgan county, Xinjiang, China on May 11, 2017. The earthquake caused 8 death, 31 injured, and all kinds of property losses, is the typical event so-called "disasters by small earthquake". The rapid assessed earthquake losses according to the general method, are quite different from the actual ones. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out the comparative analysis of the assessments of the earthquake losses and to understand the reasons of the deviation of the evaluation results in order to improve the assessment method. This paper analyzes the effect of earthquake disaster(seismic intensity distribution) and the population distribution etc. on the evaluation of earthquake life loss. The results show that seismic intensity distribution estimated according to elliptical seismic intensity attenuation model centered with macro-epicenter is of better estimation to the practical seismic intensity distribution than that with micro-epicenter. Another reason is that the area of seismic intensity region is significantly smaller than that of the practical one. We believe that because of the relatively high population density and relatively low anti-seismic capability of adobe and brick-wood structure buildings in the extreme disaster area, the unexpected high life loss was caused by such a earthquake of small magnitude. The comparative analysis results demonstrate that it will be helpful to improve the accuracy of emergency earthquake loss assessment through improvement of the high quality data of population, building and other risk related, as well as the accuracy of fast estimated earthquake location and seismic intensity distribution.

引文

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