游泳技能训练对洪水灾害避难逃生效果的影响建模分析
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摘要
针对当前方法得到结果与理论结果吻合度低的问题,提出基于Agent的游泳技能训练对洪水灾害避难逃生效果的影响建模分析方法。利用水的密度、人的身高体重以及综合参数计算洪水灾害中人体跌倒失稳情况,根据水深、流速的比值分析发生洪水灾害时人体的危险程度,利用折减系数计算洪水灾害中会游泳人的逃生速度,并根据接收洪水灾害的预警时间计算路权函数,得到洪水灾害避难逃生路段中人员的逃生速度,分析洪水灾害避难逃生的位置变化,获取游泳的移动距离,利用洪水灾害透水事故的影响系数等条件计算逃生通道安全系数,得到游泳技能好坏的影响系数,通过对该系数的计算,实现了游泳技能训练对洪水灾害避难逃生效果的影响建模。结合实验,在对游泳技能不同的人员测试洪水灾害避难逃生存活率时,游泳终极者和游泳冠军的存活率较高,并测试得到结果与理论结果的吻合度情况,实验结果证明,提出方法得到的结果与理论结果的吻合度较高,比当前方法的结果与理论结果的吻合度高30%,更贴近实际结果。
Aiming at the problem that the current method has low agreement with the theoretical results,we propose an analysis of the impact of Agent-based swimming skills training on the escape effect of flood disasters. Using the density of water,human height and weight,and comprehensive parameters to calculate the human body's fall instability in flood disasters,according to the ratio of water depth and flow velocity,analyze the danger degree of human body during flood disasters,and use the reduction factor to calculate the swimmers in flood disasters. Escape speed,calculate the road weight function according to the warning time of receiving flood disasters,obtain the escape speed of the people in the flood disaster escape escape section,analyze the position change of the flood disaster escape escape,obtain the swimming distance of swimming,and use the flood disaster to see the impact The coefficient and other conditions are used to calculate the safety factor of the escape channel,and the influence coefficient of the swimming skill is obtained. By calculating the coefficient,the swimming skill training is used to model the escape effect of the flood disaster. Combined with experiments,when testing the survival rate of flood disasters and escapes for people with different swimming skills,the survival rate of swimming ultimate swimmers and swimming champions is higher,and the results are in agreement with the theoretical results. The experimental results show that the proposed method is obtained. The results are in good agreement with the theoretical results and are closer to the actual results.
Aiming at the problem that the current method has low agreement with the theoretical results,we propose an analysis of the impact of Agent-based swimming skills training on the escape effect of flood disasters. Using the density of water,human height and weight,and comprehensive parameters to calculate the human body's fall instability in flood disasters,according to the ratio of water depth and flow velocity,analyze the danger degree of human body during flood disasters,and use the reduction factor to calculate the swimmers in flood disasters. Escape speed,calculate the road weight function according to the warning time of receiving flood disasters,obtain the escape speed of the people in the flood disaster escape escape section,analyze the position change of the flood disaster escape escape,obtain the swimming distance of swimming,and use the flood disaster to see the impact The coefficient and other conditions are used to calculate the safety factor of the escape channel,and the influence coefficient of the swimming skill is obtained. By calculating the coefficient,the swimming skill training is used to model the escape effect of the flood disaster. Combined with experiments,when testing the survival rate of flood disasters and escapes for people with different swimming skills,the survival rate of swimming ultimate swimmers and swimming champions is higher,and the results are in agreement with the theoretical results. The experimental results show that the proposed method is obtained. The results are in good agreement with the theoretical results and are closer to the actual results.
引文
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[2]丁志雄,李娜,王静,等.洪水避难分析系统的研究开发及其应用[J].水利学报,2017,48(7):808-815.
[3]于海明,王文琪,张可,等.基于元胞自动机的复杂建筑物中人员逃生模型研究[J].工业安全与环保,2016,42(12):6-9.
[4]何亚伯,汪洋,李祎琛,等.基于改进DEA交叉效率模型的洪水灾害区域脆弱性评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(5):86-90.
[5]徐志远,王山东,征程,等.洪水灾害应急避难场所选址规划研究[J].地理空间信息,2016,14(6):25-27.
[6]武强,徐华,杜沅泽,等.矿山突(透)水灾害应急疏散模拟系统与工程应用[J].煤炭学报,2017,42(10):2491-2497.
[7]陈鹏,张继权,孙滢悦,等.城市内涝灾害居民应急避难兵棋推演理论与方法[J].人民长江,2016,47(14):7-11.
[8]沈航,李梦雅,王军.风暴洪水灾害应急疏散方法研究———以浙江省玉环县为例[J].地理与地理信息科学,2016,32(1):122-126.
[9]李振平,黄玉钏.城镇洪水灾害预警模型仿真研究[J].工业建筑,2016,46(6):5-7.
[10]季珏,高晓路,徐匆匆,等.基于疏散行为的震灾避难场所服务效率评价[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(8):965-973.
[11]夏军强,古安川,舒彩文,等.洪水中人体稳定性条件的理论分析及试验研究[J].灾害学,2014,29(2):4-11.
[12]舒彩文,夏军强,林斌良,等.洪水作用下汽车的起动流速研究[J].灾害学,2012,27(1):28-33.
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