经济政策不确定性、融资约束与全要素生产率——来自中国上市公司的经验证据
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摘要
稳定的经济政策给企业经营提供稳定的外部环境,有利于企业全要素生产率提升;相反,不确定的经济政策环境可能会阻碍企业全要素生产率提升。基于2002—2016年中国A股上市公司数据的研究表明,经济政策不确定性对企业全要素生产率有显著的负面影响;进一步区分企业产权性质、规模以及所在地区后发现,经济政策不确定性对企业全要素生产率的负面影响只作用于非国有企业、小规模企业以及东部企业。此外,对于非国有企业、小规模企业以及东部企业,其内部现金流越充裕,经济政策不确定性对其全要素生产率的负面影响越小。这表明,企业面临的融资约束是经济政策不确定性影响企业全要素生产率的一个重要因素,充裕的内部现金流缓解了企业面临的外部融资约束,从而降低了经济政策不确定性对企业全要素生产率的负面影响。
A stable economic policy can provide a stable external environment for business operations, which is conducive to the improvement of total factor productivity. On the contrary, an uncertain economic policy environment may hinder the improvement of total factor productivity. Based on the data of China's A-share listed companies from 2002 to 2016, the findings of this study indicate that the uncertainty of economic policy has a significant negative impact on the total factor productivity of enterprises. Further distinguishing the nature, scale and location of the property rights of the enterprise, it can be seen that the negative impact of the uncertainty of economic policy on the corporate total factor productivity only applies to non-state-owned enterprises, small-scale enterprises and enterprises located in the eastern region. In addition, for non-state-owned enterprises, small-scale enterprises and the enterprises in the eastern region, the more abundant their internal cash flow, the less negative impact of the uncertainty of economic policy on their TFP. This indicates that the financing constraints faced by enterprises are an important way for economic policy uncertainty to affect the total factor productivity of the enterprises. The abundant internal cash flow alleviates the external financing constraints faced by the enterprises, thus reducing the negative impact of uncertainty of economic policies on the TFP of the enterprises.
A stable economic policy can provide a stable external environment for business operations, which is conducive to the improvement of total factor productivity. On the contrary, an uncertain economic policy environment may hinder the improvement of total factor productivity. Based on the data of China's A-share listed companies from 2002 to 2016, the findings of this study indicate that the uncertainty of economic policy has a significant negative impact on the total factor productivity of enterprises. Further distinguishing the nature, scale and location of the property rights of the enterprise, it can be seen that the negative impact of the uncertainty of economic policy on the corporate total factor productivity only applies to non-state-owned enterprises, small-scale enterprises and enterprises located in the eastern region. In addition, for non-state-owned enterprises, small-scale enterprises and the enterprises in the eastern region, the more abundant their internal cash flow, the less negative impact of the uncertainty of economic policy on their TFP. This indicates that the financing constraints faced by enterprises are an important way for economic policy uncertainty to affect the total factor productivity of the enterprises. The abundant internal cash flow alleviates the external financing constraints faced by the enterprises, thus reducing the negative impact of uncertainty of economic policies on the TFP of the enterprises.
引文
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[24]方明月.先天优势还是后天努力——国企级别对全要素生产率影响的实证研究[J].财贸经济,2014,(11):125-136.
[25]段梅.经济政策不确定性会影响货币政策有效性吗——基于信贷渠道的视角[J].当代财经,2017,(6):18-27.
[26]彭俞超,韩珣,李建军.经济政策不确定性与企业金融化[J].中国工业经济,2018,(1):137-155.
[2]Wei S. J., Xie Z., Zhang X.. From“Made in China”to“Innovated in China”:Necessity, Prospect, and Challenges[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2017, 31(1):49-70.
[3]蔡昉.中国经济增长如何转向全要素生产率驱动型[J].中国社会科学,2013,(1):56-71.
[4]Gulen H., Ion M.. Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment[J]. The Review of Financial Studies, 2016, 29(3):523-564.
[5]李凤羽,杨墨竹.经济政策不确定性会抑制企业投资吗?——基于中国经济政策不确定指数的实证研究[J].金融研究,2015,(4):115-129.
[6]许罡,伍文中.经济政策不确定性会抑制实体企业金融化投资吗[J].当代财经,2018,(9):114-123.
[7]林建浩,阮萌柯.经济政策不确定性与企业融资[J].金融学季刊,2016,(3):1-21.
[8]王红建,李青原,邢斐.经济政策不确定性、现金持有水平及其市场价值[J].金融研究,2014,(9):53-68.
[9]Comin D., Hobijn B.. An Exploration of Technology Diffusion[J]. American Economic Review, 2010, 100(5):2031-2059.
[10]Hsieh C. T., Klenow P. J.. Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2009, 124(4):1403-1448.
[11]Young A.. Gold into Base Metals:Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China During the Reform Period[J].Journal of Political Economy, 2003, 111(6):1220-1261.
[12]Cull R., Xu L. C.. Institutions, Ownership, and Finance:The Determinants of Profit Reinvestment among Chinese Firms[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2005, 77(1):117-146.
[13]钱雪松,康瑾,唐英伦,曹夏平.产业政策、资本配置效率与企业全要素生产率——基于中国2009年十大产业振兴规划自然实验的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2018,(8):42-59.
[14]郝威亚,魏玮,温军.经济政策不确定性如何影响企业创新?——实物期权理论作用机制的视角[J].经济管理,2016,(10):40-54.
[15]陈德球,金雅玲,董志勇.政策不确定性、政治关联与企业创新效率[J].南开管理评论,2016,(4):27-35.
[16]陈德球,陈运森,董志勇.政策不确定性、市场竞争与资本配置[J].金融研究,2017,(11):65-80.
[17]何光辉,杨咸月.融资约束对企业生产率的影响——基于系统GMM方法的国企与民企差异检验[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2012,(5):19-35.
[18]聂辉华,江艇,杨汝岱.中国工业企业数据库的使用现状和潜在问题[J].世界经济,2012,(5):142-158.
[19]Levinsohn J., Petrin A.. Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables[J]. Review of Economic Studies, 2003, 70(2):317-341.
[20]Olley G. S., Pakes A.. The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry[J]. Econometrica,1996, 64(6):1263-1297.
[21]范剑勇,冯猛,李方文.产业集聚与企业全要素生产率[J].世界经济,2014,(5):51-73.
[22]Baker S. R., Bloom N., Davis S. J.. Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2015,131(4):1593-1636.
[23]谭小芬,张文婧.经济政策不确定性影响企业投资的渠道分析[J].世界经济,2017,(12):3-26.
[24]方明月.先天优势还是后天努力——国企级别对全要素生产率影响的实证研究[J].财贸经济,2014,(11):125-136.
[25]段梅.经济政策不确定性会影响货币政策有效性吗——基于信贷渠道的视角[J].当代财经,2017,(6):18-27.
[26]彭俞超,韩珣,李建军.经济政策不确定性与企业金融化[J].中国工业经济,2018,(1):137-155.
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