经济增长、通货膨胀、货币供给互动关系研究——基于SVAR模型的实证分析

详细信息    查看全文 | 推荐本文 |

英文篇名：Study on the Interaction between Economic Growth,Inflation and Money Supply:Empirical Analysis Based on SVAR Model 作者：赵明涛 ; 沈敏杰 英文作者：ZHAO Ming-tao;SHEN Min-jie;School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance &Economics; 关键词：经济增长 ; 通货膨胀 ; 货币供给 ; SVAR模型 英文关键词：economic growth;;inflation;;money supply;;SVAR model 中文刊名：HUAI 英文刊名：Journal of Huaihua University 机构：安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院; 出版日期：2019-04-28 出版单位：怀化学院学报 年：2019 期：v.38 基金：国家社科基金青年项目“纵向数据下变系数测量误差模型的参数估计和变量选择方法研究”(15CTJ008) 语种：中文; 页：HUAI201904009 页数：6 CN：04 ISSN：43-1394/Z 分类号：51-56

摘要

基于我国1995-2017年的相关数据,通过构建SVAR模型和运用相关检验分析,对我国经济增长、通货膨胀、货币供给互动关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明:当期经济增长对货币供给具有明显的促进作用,而当期经济增长对通货膨胀和当期通货膨胀对货币供给均具有抑制作用;货币供给与通胀对我国经济增长的影响短期为正,长期为负,且货币供给对经济增长的影响具有时滞性;同时货币供给对通胀具有持续的正向影响,而经济增长对通胀的影响则具有阶段性;经济增长与通胀对货币供给的短期影响存在较大差异,前者为正,后者为负,最后根据研究结果给出合理建议。
        Based on the relevant data of China from 1995 to 2017, this paper makes an empirical study on the interaction among economic growth, inflation and money supply by constructing SVAR model and using correlation test analysis. The results show that the current economic growth has an obvious promoting effect on money supply, the current economic growth restrains inflation and the current inflation restrains money supply;The impact of money supply and inflation on China's economic growth is positive in the short term and negative in the long term,the impact of money supply on economic growth has a time lag; At the same time,money supply has a continuous positive impact on inflation,while economic growth has a phased impact on inflation.There is a big difference between the short-term impact of economic growth and inflation on money supply,the former is positive while the latter is negative. Finally,the reasonable suggestions are given based on the research results.

引文

[1]McCandless T,Weber E.Some Monetary Facts[J].Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review,1995,19(3):2-11.
    [2]Arden R,Cook S,Holly S.The asymmetric effects of monetary policy:Some results from a macro econometric model[J].The Manchester School,2000,68(4):419-441.
    [3]Charles Onyeiwu.Monetary Policy and Economic Growth of Nigeria[J].Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development,2012,7(3):325-337.
    [4]Adrian T,Estrella A.Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity[J].Economics Letters,2008,99(2):260-264.
    [5]Serletis A,Krause D.Empirical evidence on the long-run neutrality hypothesis using low-frequency international data[J].Economics Letters,1996,50(3):323-327.
    [6]Bullard J B.Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions:Lessons from the recent research[J].Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review,1999,34(6):243-251.
    [7]Tobin J.Money and Economic Growth[J].Econometrica,1965,3(33):671-684.
    [8]Alexander W R J.Inflation and Economic Growth:Evidence from a Growth Equation[J].Applied Economics,1997,2(29):233-238.
    [9]Bullard J,Keating J W.The Long-Run Relationship between Inflation and Output in Postwar Economics[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1995,3(36):477-496.
    [10]张成思.通货膨胀、经济增长与货币供应:回归货币主义?[J].世界经济,2012(8):3-21.
    [11]刘斌.我国货币供应量与产出、物价间相互关系的实证研究[J].金融研究,2002(7):10-17.
    [12]周辉莉.基于Tobin模型的我国货币供给与经济增长的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2008(15):84-86.
    [13]周锦林.关于我国货币“中性”问题的实证研究[J].经济科学,2002(1):61-65.
    [14]周文,赵果庆.中国GDP增长与CPI:关系、均衡与“十二五”预期目标调控[J].经济研究,2012(5):4-17.
    [15]王胜,曾智.中国经济增长与通货膨胀间非对称关系的实证研究[J].技术经济,2014,33(2):89-95.