农户种植结构调整中的羊群效应——以辽宁省玉米种植户为例
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摘要
种植结构调整是深化农业供给侧结构性改革的必由之路,但是"跟风"调整带来的过度调整将对我国粮食安全和食物安全带来巨大挑战。本文采用Bootstrap中介检验和工具变量法,以辽宁省467户玉米种植户为例,验证了种植结构调整中的羊群效应及其形成机制。研究发现:农户的种植结构调整意愿倾向于模仿群体内他人的意愿,且亲缘网络中其他农户意愿带来的影响强于地缘网络中其他农户意愿带来的影响,即农户的种植结构调整中存在羊群效应。农户种植结构调整中羊群效应的形成机制主要在于农户之间的学习型模仿和风险分担,且相对于大规模农户而言小规模农户更易表现出羊群效应。因此,可以将羊群效应与正规制度互为补充,共同推进种植结构优化,重视新型经营主体对小农户的引领作用,同时,要避免"跟风"行为造成的过度调整。
The adjustment of planting structure is an indispensable way to deepen the structural reform of agricultural supply side,but the excessive adjustment to follow the trend will bring great challenges to China's foodstuff security and food security.In this paper,Bootstrap intermediary test and instrumental variable method were used to verify the herding effect and its formation mechanism in 467 maize farmers in Liaoning Province.The results show that the herding effect exists in the adjustment of farmers' planting structure,which is further expounded by the facts that farmers tend to imitate others' decision-making in the group,and kinship proves to be more influential than geo-relationship in decision-making.The formation mechanism of herding effect in the adjustment mainly lies in the learning imitation and risk sharing among farmers,which is more manifest among small-scale farmers than large-scale farmers.Therefore,it is proposed to complement the formal system with the herding effect,to promote the optimization of planting structure,to emphasize the leading role of new business entities to small farmers,and to avoid excessive adjustment.
The adjustment of planting structure is an indispensable way to deepen the structural reform of agricultural supply side,but the excessive adjustment to follow the trend will bring great challenges to China's foodstuff security and food security.In this paper,Bootstrap intermediary test and instrumental variable method were used to verify the herding effect and its formation mechanism in 467 maize farmers in Liaoning Province.The results show that the herding effect exists in the adjustment of farmers' planting structure,which is further expounded by the facts that farmers tend to imitate others' decision-making in the group,and kinship proves to be more influential than geo-relationship in decision-making.The formation mechanism of herding effect in the adjustment mainly lies in the learning imitation and risk sharing among farmers,which is more manifest among small-scale farmers than large-scale farmers.Therefore,it is proposed to complement the formal system with the herding effect,to promote the optimization of planting structure,to emphasize the leading role of new business entities to small farmers,and to avoid excessive adjustment.
引文
[1] DUFLO E,SAEZ E.Participation and investment decisions in a retirement plan:the influence of colleagues choices[J].Journal of public economics,2002,85(1):121-148.
[2] MANSKI C K.Economics analysis of social interactions [J].Journal of economic perspectives,2000,14(3):115-136.
[3] 郑风田,郎晓娟.同群效应理论研究的若干新进展[J].经济学动态,2007(2):69-73.
[4] 刘莹,黄季焜.农户多目标种植决策模型与目标权重的估计[J].经济研究,2010(1):148-158.
[5] 杨进,钟甫宁,陈志钢,等.农村劳动力价格、人口结构变化对粮食种植结构的影响[J].管理世界,2016(1):78-87.
[6] 钟甫宁,陆五一,徐志刚.农村劳动力外出务工不利于粮食生产吗?对农户要素替代与种植结构调整行为及约束条件的解析[J].中国农村经济,2016(7):36-47.
[7] STONE G D,FLACHS A,DIEPENBROCK C.Rhythms of the herd:long term dynamics in seed choice by Indian farmers[J].Journal of technology in society,2014,36(2):26-38.
[8] 崔宁波,张正岩.临储政策取消下玉米种植结构调整的影响因素与收入效应——基于黑龙江省镰刀弯地区调查数据的分析[J].商业研究,2017(11):153-163.
[9] 吴玉锋,吴中宇.村域社会资本、互动与新农保参保行为研究[J].人口与经济,2011(2):62-68.
[10] 杨卫忠.农村土地经营权流转中的农户羊群效应——来自浙江省嘉兴市农户的调查数据[J].中国农村经济,2015(2):38-52.
[11] 周密,张广胜,刘华等.一事一议财政奖补制度实施的双重效应及其协调机制——基于空间计量模型的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2017(3):60-72.
[12] 钟田丽,张天宇.我国企业资本结构决策行为的“同伴效应”——来自深沪两市A股上市公司面板数据的实证检验[J].南开管理评论,2017,20(2):58-70.
[13] 费孝通.乡土中国[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2012:37.
[14] 周小刚,陈熹.关系强度、融资渠道与农户借贷福利效应——基于信任视角的实证研究[J].中国农村经济,2017(1):16-29.
[15] 朱月季.社会网络视角下的农业创新采纳与扩散[J].中国农村经济,2016(9):58-71.
[16] 万良勇,梁婵娟,饶静.上市公司并购意愿的行业同群效应研究[J].南开管理评论,2016,19(3):40-50.
[17] 王宏州,黄季焜.农民的风险和共担风险偏好[J].农业经济问题,2016,37(11):86-94.
[18] 吴本健,郭晶晶,马九杰.社会资本与农户风险的非正规分担机制:理论框架与经验证据[J].农业技术经济,2014(4):4-13.
[19] CARDENA J C,CARPENTER J.Risk attitudes and economic well-being in Latin America[J].Journal of development economics,2013,103(4):52-61.
[20] AHERN K R,DUCHIN R,SHUMWAY T.Peer effects in risk aversion and trust[J].Review of financial studies,2014,27(11):3213-3240.
[21] 晏艳阳,邓嘉宜,文丹艳.邻里效应对家庭社会捐赠活动的影响——来自中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据的证据[J].经济学动态,2017(2):76-87.
[22] 王兵,杨宝,冯子珈.同群效应:同辈群体影响大学生创业意愿吗[J].科学学研究,2017,35(4):593-599.
[23] 祝华军,楼江,田志宏.农业种植结构调整:政策响应、相对收益与农机服务——来自湖北省 541 户农民玉米种植面积调整的实证[J].农业技术经济,2018(1):111-121.
[24] NIE P,SOUSA P A,HE X B.Peer effects on childhood and adolescent obesity in China[J].China economic review,2015(35):47-69.
[25] SHROU P E,BOLGER N.Mediation in experimental and non-experimental studies:new procedures and recommendations [J].Psychological methods,2002,7(4):422-445.
[26] CONLEY T G,UDRY C R.Learning about a new technology:pineapple in Ghana [J].American journal of economic review,2010,100(1):35-69.
① 资料来源:2018年中共中央、国务院印发的文件《关于实施乡村振兴战略的意见》,新华网(www.xinhuanet.com),2018年2月4日。
② 资料来源:2016年4月28日原农业部印发的《全国种植业结构调整规划(2016-2020年)》,中华人民共和国农业部(www.moa.gov.cn),2016年4月28日。
(1)数据来源:《辽宁省统计年鉴》2017。
[2] MANSKI C K.Economics analysis of social interactions [J].Journal of economic perspectives,2000,14(3):115-136.
[3] 郑风田,郎晓娟.同群效应理论研究的若干新进展[J].经济学动态,2007(2):69-73.
[4] 刘莹,黄季焜.农户多目标种植决策模型与目标权重的估计[J].经济研究,2010(1):148-158.
[5] 杨进,钟甫宁,陈志钢,等.农村劳动力价格、人口结构变化对粮食种植结构的影响[J].管理世界,2016(1):78-87.
[6] 钟甫宁,陆五一,徐志刚.农村劳动力外出务工不利于粮食生产吗?对农户要素替代与种植结构调整行为及约束条件的解析[J].中国农村经济,2016(7):36-47.
[7] STONE G D,FLACHS A,DIEPENBROCK C.Rhythms of the herd:long term dynamics in seed choice by Indian farmers[J].Journal of technology in society,2014,36(2):26-38.
[8] 崔宁波,张正岩.临储政策取消下玉米种植结构调整的影响因素与收入效应——基于黑龙江省镰刀弯地区调查数据的分析[J].商业研究,2017(11):153-163.
[9] 吴玉锋,吴中宇.村域社会资本、互动与新农保参保行为研究[J].人口与经济,2011(2):62-68.
[10] 杨卫忠.农村土地经营权流转中的农户羊群效应——来自浙江省嘉兴市农户的调查数据[J].中国农村经济,2015(2):38-52.
[11] 周密,张广胜,刘华等.一事一议财政奖补制度实施的双重效应及其协调机制——基于空间计量模型的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2017(3):60-72.
[12] 钟田丽,张天宇.我国企业资本结构决策行为的“同伴效应”——来自深沪两市A股上市公司面板数据的实证检验[J].南开管理评论,2017,20(2):58-70.
[13] 费孝通.乡土中国[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2012:37.
[14] 周小刚,陈熹.关系强度、融资渠道与农户借贷福利效应——基于信任视角的实证研究[J].中国农村经济,2017(1):16-29.
[15] 朱月季.社会网络视角下的农业创新采纳与扩散[J].中国农村经济,2016(9):58-71.
[16] 万良勇,梁婵娟,饶静.上市公司并购意愿的行业同群效应研究[J].南开管理评论,2016,19(3):40-50.
[17] 王宏州,黄季焜.农民的风险和共担风险偏好[J].农业经济问题,2016,37(11):86-94.
[18] 吴本健,郭晶晶,马九杰.社会资本与农户风险的非正规分担机制:理论框架与经验证据[J].农业技术经济,2014(4):4-13.
[19] CARDENA J C,CARPENTER J.Risk attitudes and economic well-being in Latin America[J].Journal of development economics,2013,103(4):52-61.
[20] AHERN K R,DUCHIN R,SHUMWAY T.Peer effects in risk aversion and trust[J].Review of financial studies,2014,27(11):3213-3240.
[21] 晏艳阳,邓嘉宜,文丹艳.邻里效应对家庭社会捐赠活动的影响——来自中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据的证据[J].经济学动态,2017(2):76-87.
[22] 王兵,杨宝,冯子珈.同群效应:同辈群体影响大学生创业意愿吗[J].科学学研究,2017,35(4):593-599.
[23] 祝华军,楼江,田志宏.农业种植结构调整:政策响应、相对收益与农机服务——来自湖北省 541 户农民玉米种植面积调整的实证[J].农业技术经济,2018(1):111-121.
[24] NIE P,SOUSA P A,HE X B.Peer effects on childhood and adolescent obesity in China[J].China economic review,2015(35):47-69.
[25] SHROU P E,BOLGER N.Mediation in experimental and non-experimental studies:new procedures and recommendations [J].Psychological methods,2002,7(4):422-445.
[26] CONLEY T G,UDRY C R.Learning about a new technology:pineapple in Ghana [J].American journal of economic review,2010,100(1):35-69.
① 资料来源:2018年中共中央、国务院印发的文件《关于实施乡村振兴战略的意见》,新华网(www.xinhuanet.com),2018年2月4日。
② 资料来源:2016年4月28日原农业部印发的《全国种植业结构调整规划(2016-2020年)》,中华人民共和国农业部(www.moa.gov.cn),2016年4月28日。
(1)数据来源:《辽宁省统计年鉴》2017。
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