经济学应该如何处理“时间因素”——琼·罗宾逊的探索及其当代意义
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摘要
经济学分析不能不处理时间因素对经济决策的影响这一重大问题。然而,经济学自诞生以来,在这个问题上的进展十分缓慢。现代主流经济学以自然时间或逻辑时间来定义"经济时间",使用高度抽象的、形式化的、无差异度量方法,并据此建构越来越精致的分析模型。然而,经济学的解释和预测能力并未相应提高。从思想史角度对此问题进行考察,重点是研究20世纪杰出经济学家琼·罗宾逊关于历史的"经济时间"理论,我们可以看到,罗宾逊认为当经济学逐渐从静态分析走向动态分析时,对时间的处理应当采用历史时间的方式,即在经济分析中有过去、有未来以及有时间的单向前行。在经济分析中引入历史时间,不仅可以使经济分析过程更加贴近现实情境,也更有可能得到符合现实的结论。经济学家都应当重视时间因素,重视罗宾逊所强调的历史时间,从而构建和发展更加贴合现实的经济学。
Economic analysis has to deal with the major issue of the impact of time on economic activities.This paper examines this issue from the perspective of history of thought,focusing on the theory of historical″economic time″proposed by Mrs.Joan Robinson,an outstanding economist in the20 th century,and trying to explore its important ideological resources which have long been ignored by the academic circles.Using the methodology of comparative study of the history of thought,this article chose Introduction to Modern Economics,Mrs.Joan Robinson's late representative work,as the main text material.Placing Mrs.Robinson's theory of″economic time″in the historical course of economics since the formation of classical political economy,and comparing it with the American paradigm of economic analysis represented by Samuelson in the same period,this paper tries to accurately grasp its core connotations and characteristics,and clarifies its significance to the development of economics.This article sorts out Robinson's connotation of historical time method as follows:(1)Unalterable Past.Economic analysis should be carried out in a particular and unchangeable context.Unless it started from a blank state,economic analysis involving time processes will have a certain historical background,even subject to a certain accumulation of experience.(2)Unidirectional Time.Firstly,only through a certain period of time,can most changes,morphological or quantitative in the economy,be realized.Secondly,in the dynamic process,the consequences and their concomitants will have impacts on the subsequent economic movements.These consequences and concomitants will accumulate and even interact with each other with the passage of time.(3)Unpredictable Future.In most instances,the future cannot be entirely known as it is no longer a simple superposition of the past or the present,but a new state.The future mainly involves both uncertainty and expectations in the analysis.Due to the lack of reliable information,uncertainty is not a probability that can be calculated,while expectation is the judgment which the economic subject makes on the basis of the existing information,and which carries its own subjective cognitive color and is not uniform.This article then chose the case of pricing primary products in Introduction to Modern Economics to specify how Mrs.Robinson introduced the paradigm of historical time in her analysis.Comparing it with Samuelson's related statements in Economics(19 th Edition),we find that Mrs.Robinson believed that even in the primary market which is extremely close to a fully competitive one,the price will not be the price at which supply and demand will be balanced,but more likely to be fluctuating.What is more,this fluctuation is not necessarily an equilibrium fluctuation.For Mrs.Robinson,the price is also″a series of events″,and these events have their own temporal characteristics.It is different from Samuelson's analysis.According to the analyses in her book and the methodology which she applied,this paper believes that Robinson is more eager to see an economic analysis method combining historical analysis with abstract theory.
Economic analysis has to deal with the major issue of the impact of time on economic activities.This paper examines this issue from the perspective of history of thought,focusing on the theory of historical″economic time″proposed by Mrs.Joan Robinson,an outstanding economist in the20 th century,and trying to explore its important ideological resources which have long been ignored by the academic circles.Using the methodology of comparative study of the history of thought,this article chose Introduction to Modern Economics,Mrs.Joan Robinson's late representative work,as the main text material.Placing Mrs.Robinson's theory of″economic time″in the historical course of economics since the formation of classical political economy,and comparing it with the American paradigm of economic analysis represented by Samuelson in the same period,this paper tries to accurately grasp its core connotations and characteristics,and clarifies its significance to the development of economics.This article sorts out Robinson's connotation of historical time method as follows:(1)Unalterable Past.Economic analysis should be carried out in a particular and unchangeable context.Unless it started from a blank state,economic analysis involving time processes will have a certain historical background,even subject to a certain accumulation of experience.(2)Unidirectional Time.Firstly,only through a certain period of time,can most changes,morphological or quantitative in the economy,be realized.Secondly,in the dynamic process,the consequences and their concomitants will have impacts on the subsequent economic movements.These consequences and concomitants will accumulate and even interact with each other with the passage of time.(3)Unpredictable Future.In most instances,the future cannot be entirely known as it is no longer a simple superposition of the past or the present,but a new state.The future mainly involves both uncertainty and expectations in the analysis.Due to the lack of reliable information,uncertainty is not a probability that can be calculated,while expectation is the judgment which the economic subject makes on the basis of the existing information,and which carries its own subjective cognitive color and is not uniform.This article then chose the case of pricing primary products in Introduction to Modern Economics to specify how Mrs.Robinson introduced the paradigm of historical time in her analysis.Comparing it with Samuelson's related statements in Economics(19 th Edition),we find that Mrs.Robinson believed that even in the primary market which is extremely close to a fully competitive one,the price will not be the price at which supply and demand will be balanced,but more likely to be fluctuating.What is more,this fluctuation is not necessarily an equilibrium fluctuation.For Mrs.Robinson,the price is also″a series of events″,and these events have their own temporal characteristics.It is different from Samuelson's analysis.According to the analyses in her book and the methodology which she applied,this paper believes that Robinson is more eager to see an economic analysis method combining historical analysis with abstract theory.
引文
[1]St Augustine,The Confessions,Oxford:Oxford University Press,1991.
[2][奥地利]庞巴维克:《资本与利息》,何昆曾、高德超译,北京:商务印书馆,2010年。[Bhm-Bawerk E.,Capital and Interest,trans.by He Kunzeng &Gao Dechao,Beijing:The Commercial Press,2010.]
[3]Becker G.S.,″A Theory of the Allocation of Time,″The Economic Journal,Vol.75,No.299(1965),pp.493-517.
[4]Schmidt R.M.,″Who Maximizes What?A Study in Student Time Allocation,″American Economic Review,Vol.73,No.2(1983),pp.23-28.
[5]Aguiar M.&Erik H.,″Measuring Trends in Leisure:The Allocation of Time over Five Decades,″The Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.122,No.3(2007),pp.969-1006.
[6]Blyton P.,Hassrd J.&Hill S.et al.,Time,Work and Organization,Abingdon:Taylor &Francis,2017.
[7]Turk M.H.,″The Arrow of Time in Economics:From Robinson's Critique to the New Historical Economics,″The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought,Vol.17,No.3(2010),pp.471-492.
[8]Burstein M.,″History Versus Equilibrium:Joan Robinson and Time in Economics,″in Rima I.H.(ed.),The Joan Robinson Legacy,New York:M.E.Sharpe,1991,pp.49-61.
[9]Gram H.,″Ideology and Time:Criticisms of General Equilibrium,″in Feiwel G.R.(ed.),Joan Robinson and Modern Economic Theory,London:Palgrave Macmillan,1989,pp.285-302.
[10]Robinson J.,Economics Is a Serious Subject:The Apologia of an Economist to the Mathematician,the Scientist and the Plain Man,Cambridge:W.Heffer &Sons,1932.
[11]Robinson J.,Economic Philosophy,London:Watts and Co.,1962.
[12]Robinson J.,″Solow on the Rate of Return,″Economic Journal,Vol.74,No.294(1964),pp.410-417.
[13]Robinson J.,The New Mercantilism:An Inaugural Lecture,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1966.
[14]Robinson J.,Economics:An Awkward Corner,London:Allen and Unwin,1966.
[15]Robinson J.,″Comment on Samuelson and Modigliani,″Review of Economic Studies,Vol.33,No.4(1966),pp.307-308.
[16]Robinson J.&Naqvi K.A.,″The Badly-behaved Production Function,″Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.81,No.4(1967),pp.579-591.
[17]Robinson J.,″The Unimportance of Reswitching,″Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.89,No.1(1975),pp.32-39.
[18]Robinson J.,″What Are the Questions?″Journal of Economic Literature,Vol.15,No.4(1977),pp.1318-1339.
[19]Robinson J.,″History Versus Equilibrium,″in Collected Economic Papers:Vol.5,Oxford:Basil Blackwell,1979,pp.48-58.
[20]Robinson J.,″The Meaning of Capital,″in Collected Economic Papers:Vol.5,Oxford:Basil Blackwell,1979,pp.59-70.
[21]Backhouse R.E.,″MIT and the Other Cambridge,″History of Political Economy,Vol.46,No.S(2014),pp.252-271.
[22]Turner M.,Joan Robinson and the Americans,London:Routledge,2017.
[23][美]玛乔里·谢泼德·特纳:《琼·罗宾逊与两个剑桥之争》,胡希宁、范重庆译,南昌:江西人民出版社,1991年。[Turner M.S.,Joan Robinson and the Americans,trans.by Hu Xining &Fan Chongqing,Nanchang:Jiangxi People's Publishing House,1991.]
[24]Robinson J.&Eatwell J.,Introduction to Modern Economics,Maidenhead:McGraw-Hill,1973.
[25][英]琼·罗宾逊、约翰·伊特韦尔:《现代经济学导论》,陈彪如译,北京:商务印书馆,1982年。[Robinson J.&Eatwel J.,Introduction to Modern Economics,trans.by Chen Biaoru,Beijing:The Commercial Press,1982.]
[26][英]马克·布劳格:《凯恩斯以后的100位著名经济学家》,冯炳昆、李宝鸿译,北京:商务印书馆,2003年。[Blaug M.,Great Economists after Keynes:An Introduction to the Lives &Works of One Hundred Great Economists of the Past,trans.by Feng Bingkun &Li Baohong,Beijing:The Commercial Press,2003.]
[27]King J.E.&Millmow A.,″Death of a Revolutionary Textbook,″History of Political Economy,Vol.35,No.1(2003),pp.105-134.
[28]Kerr P.&Harcourt G.C.(eds.),Joan Robinson:Critical Assessments of Leading Economists,Vol.5,Abingdon:Taylor &Francis,2002.
[29]Kerr P.,″Joan Violet Robinson(1903-1983),″in Cord R.A.(ed.),The Palgrave Companion to Cambridge Economics,London:Palgrave Macmillan,2017,pp.673-704.
[30]Smith A.,An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations,Oxford:Oxford University Press,1976.
[31][英]阿尔弗雷德·马歇尔:《经济学原理》上册,朱志泰译,北京:商务印出馆,1964年。[Marshall A.,Principles of Economics(Ⅰ),trans.by Zhu Zhitai,Beijing:The Commercial Press,1964.]
[32][英]阿尔弗雷德·马歇尔:《经济学原理》下册,陈良璧译,北京:商务印出馆,2005年。[Marshall A.,Principles of Economics(Ⅱ),trans.by Chen Liangbi,Beijing:The Commercial Press,2005.]
[33][美]克拉克:《财富的分配》,陈福生、陈振骅译,北京:商务印出馆,2014年。[Clark J.B.,The Distribution of Wealth,trans.by Chen Fusheng &Chen Zhenhua,Beijing:The Commercial Press,2014.]
[34][英]约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯:《就业、利息和货币通论》(重译本),高鸿业译,北京:商务印书馆,1994年。[Keynes J.M.,The General Theory of Employment,Interest and Money(Re-translation),trans.by Gao Hongye,Beijing:The Commercial Press,1994.]
[35]Robinson J.,Collected Economic Papers:Vol.5,Oxford:Basil Blackwell,1979.
[36]Robinson J.,Collected Economic Papers:Vol.2,Oxford:Basil Blackwell,1979.
[37][美]保罗·萨缪尔森、威廉·诺德豪斯:《经济学》(第十九版)上册,萧琛等译,北京:商务印书馆,2012年。[Samuelson P.A.&Nordhaus W.D.,Economics(19th Edition)(Ⅰ),trans.by Xiao Chen et al.,Beijing:The Commercial Press,2012.]
[38][英]琼·罗宾逊编:《凯恩斯以后》,林敬贤译,北京:商务印书馆,2015年。[Robinson J.(ed.),After Keynes,trans.by Lin Jingxian,Beijing:The Commercial Press,2015.]
[39][美]菲歇尔:《利息理论》,陈彪如译,上海:上海人民出版社,1999年。[Fisher I.,The Theory of Interest,trans.by Chen Biaoru,Shanghai:Shanghai People's Publishing House,1999.]
(1)货币幻觉是指人们不是对货币的实际价值做出反应,而是对货币的名义价值做出反应。比如短期物价提升,名义工资同比例上升,可能人们并没有意识到实际工资事实上保持不变,反而认为工资上升,而在劳动力市场上出现供给增加的情况;但在长期情形中,劳动力市场供给情况一般认为是由实际工资来确定的。
(2)杰弗里·哈考特和普吕·科尔在询问了约翰·伊特维尔有关合作写作的情况后,认为此书虽然是由两位作者完成,但并没有很明显的分工迹象。参见[英]杰弗里·哈考特、普吕·科尔《琼·罗宾逊》,苏军译,(北京)华夏出版社2011年版,第215页。
(1)在总结罗宾逊留给后世的遗产时,杰弗里·哈考特和普吕·科尔提到了这种把经济看作是在历史时间发生的观点尤其体现在《现代经济学导论》中。参见[英]杰弗里·哈考特、普吕·科尔《琼·罗宾逊》,苏军译,(北京)华夏出版社2011年版,第265页。
[2][奥地利]庞巴维克:《资本与利息》,何昆曾、高德超译,北京:商务印书馆,2010年。[Bhm-Bawerk E.,Capital and Interest,trans.by He Kunzeng &Gao Dechao,Beijing:The Commercial Press,2010.]
[3]Becker G.S.,″A Theory of the Allocation of Time,″The Economic Journal,Vol.75,No.299(1965),pp.493-517.
[4]Schmidt R.M.,″Who Maximizes What?A Study in Student Time Allocation,″American Economic Review,Vol.73,No.2(1983),pp.23-28.
[5]Aguiar M.&Erik H.,″Measuring Trends in Leisure:The Allocation of Time over Five Decades,″The Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.122,No.3(2007),pp.969-1006.
[6]Blyton P.,Hassrd J.&Hill S.et al.,Time,Work and Organization,Abingdon:Taylor &Francis,2017.
[7]Turk M.H.,″The Arrow of Time in Economics:From Robinson's Critique to the New Historical Economics,″The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought,Vol.17,No.3(2010),pp.471-492.
[8]Burstein M.,″History Versus Equilibrium:Joan Robinson and Time in Economics,″in Rima I.H.(ed.),The Joan Robinson Legacy,New York:M.E.Sharpe,1991,pp.49-61.
[9]Gram H.,″Ideology and Time:Criticisms of General Equilibrium,″in Feiwel G.R.(ed.),Joan Robinson and Modern Economic Theory,London:Palgrave Macmillan,1989,pp.285-302.
[10]Robinson J.,Economics Is a Serious Subject:The Apologia of an Economist to the Mathematician,the Scientist and the Plain Man,Cambridge:W.Heffer &Sons,1932.
[11]Robinson J.,Economic Philosophy,London:Watts and Co.,1962.
[12]Robinson J.,″Solow on the Rate of Return,″Economic Journal,Vol.74,No.294(1964),pp.410-417.
[13]Robinson J.,The New Mercantilism:An Inaugural Lecture,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1966.
[14]Robinson J.,Economics:An Awkward Corner,London:Allen and Unwin,1966.
[15]Robinson J.,″Comment on Samuelson and Modigliani,″Review of Economic Studies,Vol.33,No.4(1966),pp.307-308.
[16]Robinson J.&Naqvi K.A.,″The Badly-behaved Production Function,″Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.81,No.4(1967),pp.579-591.
[17]Robinson J.,″The Unimportance of Reswitching,″Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.89,No.1(1975),pp.32-39.
[18]Robinson J.,″What Are the Questions?″Journal of Economic Literature,Vol.15,No.4(1977),pp.1318-1339.
[19]Robinson J.,″History Versus Equilibrium,″in Collected Economic Papers:Vol.5,Oxford:Basil Blackwell,1979,pp.48-58.
[20]Robinson J.,″The Meaning of Capital,″in Collected Economic Papers:Vol.5,Oxford:Basil Blackwell,1979,pp.59-70.
[21]Backhouse R.E.,″MIT and the Other Cambridge,″History of Political Economy,Vol.46,No.S(2014),pp.252-271.
[22]Turner M.,Joan Robinson and the Americans,London:Routledge,2017.
[23][美]玛乔里·谢泼德·特纳:《琼·罗宾逊与两个剑桥之争》,胡希宁、范重庆译,南昌:江西人民出版社,1991年。[Turner M.S.,Joan Robinson and the Americans,trans.by Hu Xining &Fan Chongqing,Nanchang:Jiangxi People's Publishing House,1991.]
[24]Robinson J.&Eatwell J.,Introduction to Modern Economics,Maidenhead:McGraw-Hill,1973.
[25][英]琼·罗宾逊、约翰·伊特韦尔:《现代经济学导论》,陈彪如译,北京:商务印书馆,1982年。[Robinson J.&Eatwel J.,Introduction to Modern Economics,trans.by Chen Biaoru,Beijing:The Commercial Press,1982.]
[26][英]马克·布劳格:《凯恩斯以后的100位著名经济学家》,冯炳昆、李宝鸿译,北京:商务印书馆,2003年。[Blaug M.,Great Economists after Keynes:An Introduction to the Lives &Works of One Hundred Great Economists of the Past,trans.by Feng Bingkun &Li Baohong,Beijing:The Commercial Press,2003.]
[27]King J.E.&Millmow A.,″Death of a Revolutionary Textbook,″History of Political Economy,Vol.35,No.1(2003),pp.105-134.
[28]Kerr P.&Harcourt G.C.(eds.),Joan Robinson:Critical Assessments of Leading Economists,Vol.5,Abingdon:Taylor &Francis,2002.
[29]Kerr P.,″Joan Violet Robinson(1903-1983),″in Cord R.A.(ed.),The Palgrave Companion to Cambridge Economics,London:Palgrave Macmillan,2017,pp.673-704.
[30]Smith A.,An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations,Oxford:Oxford University Press,1976.
[31][英]阿尔弗雷德·马歇尔:《经济学原理》上册,朱志泰译,北京:商务印出馆,1964年。[Marshall A.,Principles of Economics(Ⅰ),trans.by Zhu Zhitai,Beijing:The Commercial Press,1964.]
[32][英]阿尔弗雷德·马歇尔:《经济学原理》下册,陈良璧译,北京:商务印出馆,2005年。[Marshall A.,Principles of Economics(Ⅱ),trans.by Chen Liangbi,Beijing:The Commercial Press,2005.]
[33][美]克拉克:《财富的分配》,陈福生、陈振骅译,北京:商务印出馆,2014年。[Clark J.B.,The Distribution of Wealth,trans.by Chen Fusheng &Chen Zhenhua,Beijing:The Commercial Press,2014.]
[34][英]约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯:《就业、利息和货币通论》(重译本),高鸿业译,北京:商务印书馆,1994年。[Keynes J.M.,The General Theory of Employment,Interest and Money(Re-translation),trans.by Gao Hongye,Beijing:The Commercial Press,1994.]
[35]Robinson J.,Collected Economic Papers:Vol.5,Oxford:Basil Blackwell,1979.
[36]Robinson J.,Collected Economic Papers:Vol.2,Oxford:Basil Blackwell,1979.
[37][美]保罗·萨缪尔森、威廉·诺德豪斯:《经济学》(第十九版)上册,萧琛等译,北京:商务印书馆,2012年。[Samuelson P.A.&Nordhaus W.D.,Economics(19th Edition)(Ⅰ),trans.by Xiao Chen et al.,Beijing:The Commercial Press,2012.]
[38][英]琼·罗宾逊编:《凯恩斯以后》,林敬贤译,北京:商务印书馆,2015年。[Robinson J.(ed.),After Keynes,trans.by Lin Jingxian,Beijing:The Commercial Press,2015.]
[39][美]菲歇尔:《利息理论》,陈彪如译,上海:上海人民出版社,1999年。[Fisher I.,The Theory of Interest,trans.by Chen Biaoru,Shanghai:Shanghai People's Publishing House,1999.]
(1)货币幻觉是指人们不是对货币的实际价值做出反应,而是对货币的名义价值做出反应。比如短期物价提升,名义工资同比例上升,可能人们并没有意识到实际工资事实上保持不变,反而认为工资上升,而在劳动力市场上出现供给增加的情况;但在长期情形中,劳动力市场供给情况一般认为是由实际工资来确定的。
(2)杰弗里·哈考特和普吕·科尔在询问了约翰·伊特维尔有关合作写作的情况后,认为此书虽然是由两位作者完成,但并没有很明显的分工迹象。参见[英]杰弗里·哈考特、普吕·科尔《琼·罗宾逊》,苏军译,(北京)华夏出版社2011年版,第215页。
(1)在总结罗宾逊留给后世的遗产时,杰弗里·哈考特和普吕·科尔提到了这种把经济看作是在历史时间发生的观点尤其体现在《现代经济学导论》中。参见[英]杰弗里·哈考特、普吕·科尔《琼·罗宾逊》,苏军译,(北京)华夏出版社2011年版,第265页。
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