摘要
战争就是交战双方作战体系之间的对抗。体系贡献率评估是体系建设和分析重点关注的问题,是对作战要素在作战体系中所发挥作用的一种度量。在梳理体系贡献率的基本概念和分类的基础上,剖析了其内涵和性质。归纳总结了现有体系贡献率评估方法并分析了研究的技术难点,提出了体系贡献率的未来研究方向,为评估工作提供参考。
The warfare is the encounter of system of systems(SoS). The evaluation on the contribution rate to SoS is of great importance to the development of operational SoS as a measure of the evaluating units' contribution to SoS. In this paper the basic concept and classification of the contribution rate to operational SoS are elaborated; its connotation and nature are analyzed; and the current research status and the technical difficulties in this research field are summarized. The development trend is predicted,which provides a useful reference for relative research.
引文
[1]习近平.习近平关于国防和军队建设重要论述选编[M].北京:解放军出版社,2014.Xi Jinping.Xi Jinping’s important discussion on the Construction of National Defense and Armed Forces[M].Beijing:PLA Press,2014.
[2]李炜,张恒,王玮.评价舰船装备体系贡献度的一种方法[J].舰船科学技术,2015,37(10):1-5.Li Wei,Zhang Heng,Wang Wei.An evaluation method for the contribution margin of a ship in the combat system of systems[J].Ship Science and Technology,2015,37(10):1-5.
[3]陈小卫,张军奇,杨永志.新研装备体系贡献率度量方法分析[J].兵器装备工程学报,2018,39(4):19-22.Chen Xiaowei,Zhang Junqi,Yang Yongzhi.Analysis on Measurement Methods of New Equipment System-of-Systems Contribution[J].Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering,2018,39(4):19-22.
[4]王飞.基于PRI超网络模型的体系能力仿真实验分析方法研究[D].北京:国防大学,2015.Wang Fei.Research on SOS Capabilities Simulation Analysis Method Based on PRI Model[D].Beijing:National Defense University,2015.
[5]胡晓峰.战争复杂性与复杂体系仿真问题[C].第四届全军战争复杂性与信息化战争模拟学术研讨会论文集.北京:国防大学,2010(6).Hu Xiaofeng.Research on War complexity and complex system simulation[C].Conference on war complexity and war gaming&simulation.Beijing:National Defense University,2010(6).
[6]李瑞军.对装备体系贡献率的实践和思考[C].第八届全军战争复杂性与信息化战争模拟学术研讨会论文集.北京:国防大学,2018(7).LI Ruijun.Research on War complexity and complex system simulation[C].Practice an thinking on contribution to equipment System-of-Systems.Beijing:National Defense University,2018(7).
[7]王飞,司光亚.武器装备体系能力贡献度的解析与度量方法[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2016,30(3):10-15.Wang Fei,Si Guangya.Analytic and metric method on contribution to equipment System-of-Systems[J].Military Operations Research and Systems Engineering,2016,30(3):10-15.
[8]李际超,杨克巍,张小可,等.基于武器装备体系作战网络模型的装备贡献度评估[J].复杂系统与复杂性科学,2016,13(3):1-7.Li Jichao,Yang Kewei,Zhang Xiaoke,et al.Equipment contribution degree evaluation method based on combat network of weapon system-of-systems[J].Complex Systems and Complexity Science,2016,13(3):1-7.
[9]金丛镇.基于MMF-OODA的海军装备体系贡献度评估方法研究[D].南京:南京理工大学,2017.Jin Congzhen.Research on evaluation method of contribution to equipment System-of-Systems based on MMF-OODA[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Science&Technology,2017.
[10]陈立新.关于装备体系贡献率研究的几点思考[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2018,32(3):37-43.Chen Lixin.Some thoughts on the contribution to equipment System-of-Systems[J].Military Operations Research and Systems Engineering,2018,32(3):37-43.
[11]管清波,于小红.新型武器装备体系贡献度评估问题探析[J].装备学院学报,2015,26(3):1-5.Guan Qingbo,Yu Xiaohong.Research on Evaluation of Equipment’s Contribution to System Warfighting[J].Journal of Equipment Academy,2015,26(3):1-5.
[12]梁家林,熊伟.武器装备体系贡献度评估方法综述[J].兵器装备工程学报,2018,39(4):67-71.Liang Jialin,Xiong Wei.Overview of Evaluation Method of Contribution of Weapon Equipment System[J].Journal of Weapon Equipment Engineering,2018,39(4):67-71.
[13]张庆军.联合作战XX作战力量体系贡献度分析模型研究[D].北京:国防大学,2018.Zhang Qingjun.Research on analysis model of contribution of XX to joint operation System of Systems[D].Beijing:National Defense University,2018.
[14]李怡勇,李智,管清波,等.武器装备体系贡献度评估刍议与示例[J].装备学院学报,2015,26(4):5-10.Li Yiyong,Li Zhi,Guan Qingbo,et al.Discussion and demonstration on contribution evaluation of weapon equipment system[J].Journal of Equipment Academy,2015,26(4):5-10
[15]张博孜,张国忠,常华耀.武器装备体系贡献度评估问题研究[J].计算机仿真,2018(2):397-401.Zhang Bozi,Zhang Guozhong,Chang Huayao.Problem of Contribution Evaluation of Weapon System of Systems[J].Computer Simulation,2018(2):397-401.
[16]胡晓峰,杨镜宇,司光亚,等.战争复杂系统仿真分析与实验[M].北京:国防大学出版社,2008.Hu Xiaofeng,Yang Jingyu,Si Guangya,et al.War complex system modeling&simulation[M].Beijing:National Defense University Press,2008.
[17]毛昭军,李瑞军,卜广志.对装备体系贡献率的几点认识和思考[C].第八届全军战争复杂性与信息化战争模拟学术研讨会论文集.北京:国防大学,2018(7).Mao Zhaojun,Li Ruijun,Bu Guangzhi.Some ideas and thoughts about contribution to equipment System-of-Systems[J].Practice an thinking on contribution to equipment System-of-Systems.Beijing:National Defense University,2018(7).
[18]Charnes A,Cooper W W,Rhodes E.Measuring the efficiency of decision making units[J].European Journal of Operational Research(S0377-2217),1978,2(6):429-444.
[19]齐晓光.技术对装备体系的贡献度评估方法研究[D].长沙:国防科学技术大学,2015.Qi Xiaoguang.Research on the Evaluation Methodology of Technology Contribution Degree to the Weapon System of Systems[D].Changsha:National University of Defense Technology,2015.
[20]胡晓峰.战争科学论[M].北京:科学出版社,2018.Hu Xiaofeng.War Science Theory[M].Beijing:Science Press,2018.
[21]Neale M C,Hunter M D,Pritikin J N,et al.OpenMx 2.0:extended structural equation and statistical modeling[J].Psychometrika(S0033-3123),2016,81(2):535.
[22]罗小明,何榕,朱延雷.武器装备体系贡献度评估[J].装甲兵工程学院学报,2016(4):1-6.Luo Xiaoming,He Rong,Zhu Yanlei.Research on evaluation of contribution to weapon equipment system architecture[J].Journal of Academy of Armored Force Engineering,2016(4):1-6.
[23]罗小明,杨娟,何榕.基于任务-能力-结构-演化的武器装备体系贡献度评估与示例分析[J].装备学院学报,2016,27(3):7-13.Luo Xiaoming,Yang Juan,He Rong,et al.Research and demonstration on contribution evaluation of weapon equipment system based on task-capability-structareevolution[J].Journal of Equipment Academy,2016,27(3):7-13.
[24]叶紫晴,屈也频.基于规则推理的海军航空作战装备体系贡献度分析[J].指挥控制与仿真,2015(5):29-33.Ye Ziqing,Qu Yepin.Analysis of contribution degree based on rule-based reasoning for naval aviation operation equipment system[J].Command Control&Simulation,2015(5):29-33.
[25]姜剑雄,赵毅,师鹏,等.基于直觉模糊推理的天基海洋监视系统贡献度评估研究[J].上海航天,2016,33(6):115-121.Jiang Jianxiong,Zhao Yi,Shi Peng,et al.Evaluation Study of Contribution to System Warfighting for Space-Based Ocean Surveillance Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Reasoning[J].Aerospace Shanghai,2016,33(6):115-121.
[26]陈文英,张兵志,史力晨,等.新型智能装甲作战系统体系贡献率评估研究[J].兵工学报,2018,39(9):1841-1849.Chen Wenying,Zhang Bingzhi,Shi Lichen,et al.Research on Evaluation of Contribution Rate of a New Intelligent Armoured Combat System to Army Weapon System-of-systems[J].Acta Armamentrii,2018,39(9):1841-1849.
[27]CARES J R.An information age combat model[M].Newport:Alidade Incorporated,2004:85-90.
[28]李际超.基于作战网络模型的装备体系贡献度研究[D].长沙:国防科技大学,2015.Li Jichao.Research on Equipment Contribution of Weapon System-of-Systems based on Combat Network Model[D].Changsha:National University of Defense Technology,2015.
[29]赵丹玲,谭跃进,李际超,等.基于作战环的武器装备体系贡献度评估[J].系统工程与电子技术,2017(10):2239-2247.Zhao Danling,Tan Yuejin,Li Jichao,et al.Armament system of systems contribution evaluation based on operation loop[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2017(10):2239-2247.
[30]李小波,林木,束哲,等.体系贡献率效能综合评估方法[J].系统仿真学报,2018(12):4520-4528.Li Xiaobo,Lin Mu,Shu Zhe,et al.Synthesized Capability-Effectiveness Evaluation Method of Contribution Ratio to System-of-Systems[J].Journal of System Simulation,2018(12):4520-4528.
[31]张明智,马力.体系对抗OODA循环鲁棒性建模及仿真分析[J].系统仿真学报,2017,29(9):1968-1975.Zhang Mingzhi,Ma Li.System-of-systems Combat OODA Loop Robustness Modeling and Experiment[J].Journal of System Simulation,2017,29(9):1968-1975.
[32]罗承昆,陈云翔,王莉莉,等.基于作战环和改进信息熵的体系效能评估方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2019(1):73-80.Luo Chengkun,Chen Yunxiang,Wang Lili,et al.Effectiveness evaluation method of system-of-systems based on operation loop and improved information entropy[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2019(1):73-80.
[33]Pe?a J L,Touchette H.A network theory analysis of football strategies[J].arXiv:1206.6904,2012.
[34]Gyarmati L,Kwak H,Rodriguez P.Searching for a Unique Style in Soccer[J].arXiv:1409.0308,2014.
[35]鞠儒生.基于数据耕种与数据挖掘的系统效能评估方法研究[D].长沙:国防科技大学,2006.Ju Rusheng.Research of system effectiveness evaluation based on data farming and data mining[D].Changsha:National University of Defense Technology,2006.
[36]胡晓峰,杨镜宇,胡润涛.数据耕耘:一种基于协同的探索性仿真分析方法[J].系统仿真学报,2007,19(7):1651-1655.Hu Xiaofeng,Yang Jingyu,Hu Runtao.Data Farming:ACooperative-based Exploratory Simulation Analysis Method[J].Journal of System Simulation,2007,19(7):1651-1655.
[37]胡润涛,胡晓峰.基于数据耕耘方法探索战争中的非线性[J].计算机仿真,2009,26(2):1-3,22.Hu Runtao,Hu Xiaofeng.Exploiting the Nonlinearities in Warfare Based Data Farming[J].Computer Simulation,2009,26(2):1-3,22.
[38]Davis P K.Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning,Mission-System Aalysis,and Transformation[R].RAND MR-1513-OSD,2002.
[39]Michael J G.Combined Initial Operational Test and Evaluation and Live Fire Test and Evaluation Report[R].Office of the Searetary of Defense Washington DCOperational Test and Evaluation,2015.
[40]Delaurentis D A,Marais K.Assessing the impact of development disruptions and dependencies in analysis of alternatives of System-of-Systems[R].Systems Engineering Research Center,2012.
[41]孟小峰,慈祥.大数据管理:概念、技术与挑战[J].计算机研究与发展,2013,50(1):146-169.Meng Xiaofeng,Ci Xiang.Big Data Management:Concepts,Techniques and Challenges[J].Journal of Computer Research and Development,2013,50(1):146-169.
[42]胡晓峰.大数据时代对建模仿真的挑战与思考[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2013,27(4):5-12.Hu Xiaofeng.Challenge and consideration of modeling and simulation in data era[J].Military Operations Research and Systems Engineering,2013,27(4):5-12.
[43]Hinton G E,Salakhutdinov R R.Reducing the dimensionality of data with neural networks[J].Science(S0036-8075),2006,313(5786):504-507.
[44]LeCun Y,Bengio Y,Hinton G.Deep learning[J].Nature(S0028-0836),2015,521(7553):436-444.
[45]曹裕华,王元钦.装备作战试验理论与方法[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2016.Cao Yuhua,Wang Yuanqin.Equipment operation test theory and methods[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2016.