基于VAR模型的山东省城镇化与农业现代化互动关系的实证分析

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英文篇名：An Empirical Analysis of Interaction between Urbanization and Agricultural Modernization in Shandong Province Based on VAR Model 作者：王语 ; 周玉玺 英文作者：Wang Yu;Zhou Yuxi;College of Economics and Management, Shandong Agricultural University; 关键词：山东省 ; 城镇化 ; 农业现代化 ; VAR模型 英文关键词：Shandong Province;;Urbanization;;Agricultural modernization;;VAR model 中文刊名：AGRI 英文刊名：Shandong Agricultural Sciences 机构：山东农业大学经济管理学院; 出版日期：2019-05-30 出版单位：山东农业科学 年：2019 期：v.51;No.333 基金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目(17CZK111) 语种：中文; 页：AGRI201905035 页数：6 CN：05 ISSN：37-1148/S 分类号：166-170+178

摘要

乡村振兴战略的提出使城镇化、农业现代化再度成为当前经济发展的热点问题。本文选取山东省1990—2017年的相关数据,基于城镇化和农业现代化理念构建评价指标体系,并用熵权法对山东省城镇化和农业现代化水平进行综合评价。通过构建VAR模型,揭示了山东省城镇化和农业现代化之间的互动关系。结果表明:城镇化与农业现代化存在单项的因果关系,即农业现代化是城镇化的格兰杰原因,城镇化不是农业现代化的格兰杰原因;农业现代化长期内对城镇化有正向促进作用,城镇化短期内对农业现代化有负向作用;山东省城镇化与农业现代化之间相互影响,互为支撑。因此,应结合山东省实际,加强城镇化与农业现代化的互动联系,以期实现二者的协调发展。
        The proposal of the strategy of rural revitalization once again made urbanization and agricultural modernization become the hot issues in current economic development. The relevant data of Shandong Province from 1990 to 2017 were selected in this paper, and an evaluation index system was built based on the concept of urbanization and agricultural modernization, and the level of urbanization and agricultural modernization in Shandong Province was evaluated comprehensively by the method of entropy weight. Through the construction of VAR model, the interaction between urbanization and agricultural modernization in Shandong Province was revealed. The results showed that there was a single causal relationship between urbanization and agricultural modernization, that was, agricultural modernization was Granger cause of urbanization, while urbanization was not Granger cause of agricultural modernization. Agricultural modernization had a positive effect on urbanization in the long run, and urbanization had a negative effect on agricultural modernization in the short run. Urbanization and agricultural modernization in Shandong Province influenced and supported each other. Therefore, the interaction between urbanization and agricultural modernization should be strengthened according to the actual situation of Shandong Province, so as to realize their coordinated development.

引文

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