东北地区寒温带针叶林的潜在地理分布
|
摘要
基于Maxent模型,利用世界气候数据库的末次盛冰期至2070年前后的19个生物气候变量资料,在对存在样本点数量评估和主要参数筛选的基础上,综合Jackknife检验、置换重要值和百分比贡献率,探讨影响我国东北地区寒温带针叶林分布的主要环境因子,分析不同时期寒温带针叶林在东北地区潜在适生区的变化特征,结果表明:(1)Maxent模型的特征参数对环境变量响应曲线影响最大,调控倍频其次,最大背景点数最小;(2)特征参数为Threshold、调控倍频为1时,受试者工作曲线下面积(AUC)最高;(3)影响寒温带针叶林分布的主要温度因子为最暖季平均气温、年平均气温和最冷月最低气温,主要水分因子为年降水量、降水的季节变量和最干季降水量;(4)东北地区寒温带针叶林的主要潜在适宜分布区域在大兴安岭,末次盛冰期分布范围最大,为20.58万km2,从全新世中期范围开始收缩,到当代面积最小,在未来面积会有小幅增加。
With the Maxent model,we used the data of 19 bioclimatic variables during the Last Glacial Maximum,Mid-Holocene,Present,the year 2050 and the year 2070 from the world climate database to evaluate the number of sample points and to screen the main parameters. And we investigated the environmental factors affecting the distributions of cold-temperate coniferous forest in Northeast China and analyzed its variation characteristics of potentially suitable habitat in different periods by means of Jackknife test,permutation importance and percent contribution. The influence of feature combinations( FC) on response curves of environmental variables was the greatest,followed by regularization multipliers( RM) and max number of background points( BC). When FC was threshold and regularization multiplier was 1,the area under curve( AUC) of receiver operating characteristic( ROC) was the largest. The main temperature factors affecting the distributions were mean temperature of warmest quarter( BIO10),annual mean temperature( BIO1) and min temperature of coldest month( BIO6). The main moisture factors were annual precipitation( BIO12),precipitation seasonality( BIO15) and precipitation of driest quarter( BIO17). The main potential suitable distribution area was Daxing'an Mountains. In the Last Glacial Maximum,the distribution range is the largest with 205 800 km~2 and it began to shrink from the Mid-Holocene. Its area was the smallest at present and would increase slightly in the future.
With the Maxent model,we used the data of 19 bioclimatic variables during the Last Glacial Maximum,Mid-Holocene,Present,the year 2050 and the year 2070 from the world climate database to evaluate the number of sample points and to screen the main parameters. And we investigated the environmental factors affecting the distributions of cold-temperate coniferous forest in Northeast China and analyzed its variation characteristics of potentially suitable habitat in different periods by means of Jackknife test,permutation importance and percent contribution. The influence of feature combinations( FC) on response curves of environmental variables was the greatest,followed by regularization multipliers( RM) and max number of background points( BC). When FC was threshold and regularization multiplier was 1,the area under curve( AUC) of receiver operating characteristic( ROC) was the largest. The main temperature factors affecting the distributions were mean temperature of warmest quarter( BIO10),annual mean temperature( BIO1) and min temperature of coldest month( BIO6). The main moisture factors were annual precipitation( BIO12),precipitation seasonality( BIO15) and precipitation of driest quarter( BIO17). The main potential suitable distribution area was Daxing'an Mountains. In the Last Glacial Maximum,the distribution range is the largest with 205 800 km~2 and it began to shrink from the Mid-Holocene. Its area was the smallest at present and would increase slightly in the future.
引文
[1]KRITICOS D J,JAROSIK V,OTA N.Extending the suite of bioclim variables:a proposed registry system and case study using principal components analysis[J].Methods in Ecology and Evolution,2014,5(9):956-960.
[2]张海涛,罗渡,牟希东,等.应用多个生态位模型预测福寿螺在中国的潜在适生区[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(4):1277-1284.
[3]HASTIE T,TIBSHIRANI R,FRIEDMAN J H.The elements of statistical learning:data mining,inference,and prediction[M].New York:Springer-Verlag,2001.
[4]GUISAN A,BROENNIMANN O,ENGLER R,et al.Using niche-based models to improve the sampling of rare species[J].Conservation Biology,2006,20(2):501-511.
[5]THAPA A,WU R,HU Y,et al.Predicting the potential distribution of the endangered red panda across its entire range using MaxEnt modeling[J].Ecology and Evolution,2018,8(21):10542-10554.
[6]MOYA W,JACOME G,YOO C.Past,current,and future trends of red spiny lobster based on PCA with Max Ent model in Galapagos Islands,Ecuador[J].Ecology and Evolution,2017,7(13):4881-4890.
[7]PHILLIPS S J,ANDERSON R P,SCHAPIRE R E.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J].Ecological Modelling,2006,190(3/4):231-259.
[8]PHILLIPS S J,ANDERSON R P,DUDK M,et al.Opening the black box:an open-source release of Maxent[J].Ecography,2017,40:887-893.
[9]周以良,聂绍荃.中国大兴安岭植被[M].北京:科学出版社,1991.
[10]方精云.东亚地区植被气候类型在温度、降水量坐标中的表达[J].生态学报,1994,14(3):290-294.
[11]周广胜,何奇瑾.陆地生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评价与适应性管理[J].中国基础科学,2015,17(3):26-31.
[12]李垚,张兴旺,方炎明.小叶栎分布格局对末次盛冰期以来气候变化的响应[J].植物生态学报,2016,40(11):1164-1178.
[13]贾翔,马芳芳,周旺明,等.气候变化对阔叶红松林潜在地理分布区的影响[J].生态学报,2017,37(2):464-473.
[14]王士君,宋飏.中国东北地区城市地理基本框架[J].地理学报,2006,61(6):574-584.
[15]徐文铎.中国东北主要植被类型的分布与气候的关系[J].植物生态学与地植物学学报,1986,10(4):254-263.
[16]WOODWARD F I.Climate and plant distribution[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1987.
[17]VERBRUGGEN H,TYBERGHEIN L,BELTON G S,et al.Improving transferability of introduced species’distribution models:new tools to forecast the spread of a highly invasive seaweed[J].Plos One,2013,8(6).doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0068337.
[18]朱耿平,范靖宇,王梦琳,等.ROC曲线形状在生态位模型评价中的重要性:以美国白蛾为例[J].生物安全学报,2017,26(3):184-190.
[19]MANEL S,CERI W H,ORMEROD S J.Evaluating presenceabsence models in ecology:the need to account for prevalence[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2001,38(5):921-931.
[20]朱耿平,乔慧捷.Maxent模型复杂度对物种潜在分布区预测的影响[J].生物多样性,2016,24(10):1189-1196.
[21]ELITH J,PHILLIPS S J,HASTIE T,et al.A statistical explanation of Max Ent for ecologists[J].Diversity and Distributions,2010,17:43-57.
[22]王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,等.ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用[J].生物多样性,2007,15(4):365-372.
[23]MILLER J.Species distribution modeling[J].Geography Compass,2010,4(6):490-509.
[24]SWETS J.Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems[J].Science,1998,240:1285-1293.
[25]刘超,霍宏亮,田路明,等.基于Max Ent模型不同气候变化情景下的豆梨潜在地理分布[J].应用生态学报,2018,29(11):3696-3704.
[26]张东方,张琴,郭杰,等.基于Max Ent模型的当归全球生态适宜区和生态特征研究[J].生态学报,2017,37(15):5111-5120.
[27]GUO Y L,LI X,ZHAO Z F,et al.Modeling the distribution of Populus euphratica in the Heihe River Basin,an inland river basin in an arid region of China[J].Science China(Earth Sciences),2018,61(11):1669-1684.
[28]李璇,李垚,方炎明.基于优化的Maxent模型预测白栎在中国的潜在分布区[J].林业科学,2018,54(8):153-164.
[29]ELITH J,GRAHAM C H,ANDERSON R P,et al.Novel methods improve prediction of species’distributions from occurrence data[J].Ecography,2006,29(2):129-151.
[30]HERNANDEZ P A,GRAHAM C H,MASTER L L,et al.The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods[J].Ecography,2006,29(5):773-785.
[31]GUISAN A,EDWARDS T C,HASTIE T.Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions:setting the scene[J].Ecological Modelling,2002,157:89-100.
[32]MOISEN G G,FRESCINO T S.Comparing five modeling techniques for predicting forest characteristics[J].Ecological Modelling,2002,157:209-225.
[33]ANDERSON R P,GOMEZ-LAVERDE M,PETERSON A T.Geographical distributions of spiny pocket mice in South America:insights from predictive models[J].Global Ecology and Biogeography,2002,11(2):131-141.
[34]WISZ M S,HIJMANS R J,LI J,et al.Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models[J].Diversity and Distribution,2008,14(5):763-773.
[35]朱耿平,原雪姣,范靖宇,等.Max Ent模型参数设置对其所模拟物种地理分布和生态位的影响:以茶翅蝽为例[J].生物安全学报,2018,27(2):118-123.
[36]SHEPHERD L D,LANGE P J,PERRIE L R,et al.Chloroplast phylogeography of New Zealand Sophora trees(Fabaceae):extensive hybridization and widespread Last Glacial Maximum survival[J].Journal of Biogeography,2017,44(7):1640-1651.
[37]KEMP J,HOPE G.Vegetation and environments since the last glacial maximum in the southern tablelands,new south wales[J].Journal of Quaternary Science,2014,29(8):778-788.
[38]邹旭,彭冶,王璐,等.末次盛冰期以来气候变化对中国山荆子分布格局的影响[J].植物科学学报,2018,36(5):676-686.
[39]王璐,许晓岗,李垚.末次盛冰期以来陀螺果潜在地理分布格局变迁预测[J].生态学杂志,2018,37(1):278-286.
[2]张海涛,罗渡,牟希东,等.应用多个生态位模型预测福寿螺在中国的潜在适生区[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(4):1277-1284.
[3]HASTIE T,TIBSHIRANI R,FRIEDMAN J H.The elements of statistical learning:data mining,inference,and prediction[M].New York:Springer-Verlag,2001.
[4]GUISAN A,BROENNIMANN O,ENGLER R,et al.Using niche-based models to improve the sampling of rare species[J].Conservation Biology,2006,20(2):501-511.
[5]THAPA A,WU R,HU Y,et al.Predicting the potential distribution of the endangered red panda across its entire range using MaxEnt modeling[J].Ecology and Evolution,2018,8(21):10542-10554.
[6]MOYA W,JACOME G,YOO C.Past,current,and future trends of red spiny lobster based on PCA with Max Ent model in Galapagos Islands,Ecuador[J].Ecology and Evolution,2017,7(13):4881-4890.
[7]PHILLIPS S J,ANDERSON R P,SCHAPIRE R E.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J].Ecological Modelling,2006,190(3/4):231-259.
[8]PHILLIPS S J,ANDERSON R P,DUDK M,et al.Opening the black box:an open-source release of Maxent[J].Ecography,2017,40:887-893.
[9]周以良,聂绍荃.中国大兴安岭植被[M].北京:科学出版社,1991.
[10]方精云.东亚地区植被气候类型在温度、降水量坐标中的表达[J].生态学报,1994,14(3):290-294.
[11]周广胜,何奇瑾.陆地生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评价与适应性管理[J].中国基础科学,2015,17(3):26-31.
[12]李垚,张兴旺,方炎明.小叶栎分布格局对末次盛冰期以来气候变化的响应[J].植物生态学报,2016,40(11):1164-1178.
[13]贾翔,马芳芳,周旺明,等.气候变化对阔叶红松林潜在地理分布区的影响[J].生态学报,2017,37(2):464-473.
[14]王士君,宋飏.中国东北地区城市地理基本框架[J].地理学报,2006,61(6):574-584.
[15]徐文铎.中国东北主要植被类型的分布与气候的关系[J].植物生态学与地植物学学报,1986,10(4):254-263.
[16]WOODWARD F I.Climate and plant distribution[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1987.
[17]VERBRUGGEN H,TYBERGHEIN L,BELTON G S,et al.Improving transferability of introduced species’distribution models:new tools to forecast the spread of a highly invasive seaweed[J].Plos One,2013,8(6).doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0068337.
[18]朱耿平,范靖宇,王梦琳,等.ROC曲线形状在生态位模型评价中的重要性:以美国白蛾为例[J].生物安全学报,2017,26(3):184-190.
[19]MANEL S,CERI W H,ORMEROD S J.Evaluating presenceabsence models in ecology:the need to account for prevalence[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2001,38(5):921-931.
[20]朱耿平,乔慧捷.Maxent模型复杂度对物种潜在分布区预测的影响[J].生物多样性,2016,24(10):1189-1196.
[21]ELITH J,PHILLIPS S J,HASTIE T,et al.A statistical explanation of Max Ent for ecologists[J].Diversity and Distributions,2010,17:43-57.
[22]王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,等.ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用[J].生物多样性,2007,15(4):365-372.
[23]MILLER J.Species distribution modeling[J].Geography Compass,2010,4(6):490-509.
[24]SWETS J.Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems[J].Science,1998,240:1285-1293.
[25]刘超,霍宏亮,田路明,等.基于Max Ent模型不同气候变化情景下的豆梨潜在地理分布[J].应用生态学报,2018,29(11):3696-3704.
[26]张东方,张琴,郭杰,等.基于Max Ent模型的当归全球生态适宜区和生态特征研究[J].生态学报,2017,37(15):5111-5120.
[27]GUO Y L,LI X,ZHAO Z F,et al.Modeling the distribution of Populus euphratica in the Heihe River Basin,an inland river basin in an arid region of China[J].Science China(Earth Sciences),2018,61(11):1669-1684.
[28]李璇,李垚,方炎明.基于优化的Maxent模型预测白栎在中国的潜在分布区[J].林业科学,2018,54(8):153-164.
[29]ELITH J,GRAHAM C H,ANDERSON R P,et al.Novel methods improve prediction of species’distributions from occurrence data[J].Ecography,2006,29(2):129-151.
[30]HERNANDEZ P A,GRAHAM C H,MASTER L L,et al.The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods[J].Ecography,2006,29(5):773-785.
[31]GUISAN A,EDWARDS T C,HASTIE T.Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions:setting the scene[J].Ecological Modelling,2002,157:89-100.
[32]MOISEN G G,FRESCINO T S.Comparing five modeling techniques for predicting forest characteristics[J].Ecological Modelling,2002,157:209-225.
[33]ANDERSON R P,GOMEZ-LAVERDE M,PETERSON A T.Geographical distributions of spiny pocket mice in South America:insights from predictive models[J].Global Ecology and Biogeography,2002,11(2):131-141.
[34]WISZ M S,HIJMANS R J,LI J,et al.Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models[J].Diversity and Distribution,2008,14(5):763-773.
[35]朱耿平,原雪姣,范靖宇,等.Max Ent模型参数设置对其所模拟物种地理分布和生态位的影响:以茶翅蝽为例[J].生物安全学报,2018,27(2):118-123.
[36]SHEPHERD L D,LANGE P J,PERRIE L R,et al.Chloroplast phylogeography of New Zealand Sophora trees(Fabaceae):extensive hybridization and widespread Last Glacial Maximum survival[J].Journal of Biogeography,2017,44(7):1640-1651.
[37]KEMP J,HOPE G.Vegetation and environments since the last glacial maximum in the southern tablelands,new south wales[J].Journal of Quaternary Science,2014,29(8):778-788.
[38]邹旭,彭冶,王璐,等.末次盛冰期以来气候变化对中国山荆子分布格局的影响[J].植物科学学报,2018,36(5):676-686.
[39]王璐,许晓岗,李垚.末次盛冰期以来陀螺果潜在地理分布格局变迁预测[J].生态学杂志,2018,37(1):278-286.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |