基于子系统熵权模型的珠三角水资源承载力评价
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摘要
科学合理地评价水资源承载力是促进区域可持续发展的有效途径。以珠江三角洲城市群为研究对象,建立了基于水资源承载子系统熵权的评价模型,与灰色关联理论相结合,对珠江三角区域水资源承载力子系统差异性进行分析。结果表明:各地区间水资源承载子系统等级与总等级均存在差别。除江门、惠州和肇庆外,其余地区水资源开发利用程度已接近饱和;深圳、佛山、珠海3市水资源供给对社会经济支持力较弱,已不能满足经济发展需求;江门和肇庆水资源承载力总等级虽然较高,但工、农业及居民生活用水效率低下,耗水率高,水资源未得到充分利用;东莞市在S4子系统的等级低于其他城市,应予以重点关注。提出的基于子系统熵权的分配方式可改善目前仍以传统熵权分配为主的现状,提供更加有针对性的评价结论。这对于合理分配在各个子系统的治理力度,以保证区域未来可持续协调发展具有一定的参考价值。
Reasonable evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is an effective way to promote regional sustainable development. This paper took the Pearl River Delta city cluster as the research object,established an evaluation model based on the entropy weight of the water resources carrying subsystem,and analyzed the difference of the water resources carrying subsystem in the Pearl River Delta by combining with the grey relational theory. The results showed that there are differences between the water resources carrying subsystem and the total grade in different regions. Except for Jiangmen,Huizhou and Zhaoqing cities,the development and utilization of water resources in other areas has reached saturation point. The supply of water resources in Shenzhen,Foshan and Zhuhai is insufficient to support social and economic development and cannot meet the needs of economic development. Although the total carrying capacity of water resources is high in Jiangmen and Zhaoqing,the water efficiency is low in industry,agriculture,and daliy consumption. The high water consumption rate means that water resources are not fully utilized. The S4 subsystem in Dongguan is lower than other cities,and should be paid more attention to. The method based on subsystem entropy weight proposed in this paper can improve the current situation of traditional entropy weight distribution and provide targeted evaluation conclusions. It has important reference value for the rational allocation of governance measures of each subsystem to ensure the sustainable and coordinated development in the future.
Reasonable evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is an effective way to promote regional sustainable development. This paper took the Pearl River Delta city cluster as the research object,established an evaluation model based on the entropy weight of the water resources carrying subsystem,and analyzed the difference of the water resources carrying subsystem in the Pearl River Delta by combining with the grey relational theory. The results showed that there are differences between the water resources carrying subsystem and the total grade in different regions. Except for Jiangmen,Huizhou and Zhaoqing cities,the development and utilization of water resources in other areas has reached saturation point. The supply of water resources in Shenzhen,Foshan and Zhuhai is insufficient to support social and economic development and cannot meet the needs of economic development. Although the total carrying capacity of water resources is high in Jiangmen and Zhaoqing,the water efficiency is low in industry,agriculture,and daliy consumption. The high water consumption rate means that water resources are not fully utilized. The S4 subsystem in Dongguan is lower than other cities,and should be paid more attention to. The method based on subsystem entropy weight proposed in this paper can improve the current situation of traditional entropy weight distribution and provide targeted evaluation conclusions. It has important reference value for the rational allocation of governance measures of each subsystem to ensure the sustainable and coordinated development in the future.
引文
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[7]梁彩霞.基于因子分析法和熵权法的肇庆市水资源短缺风险评价[J].广东水利水电,2018(10):1-4.
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[9]贺欣悦,刘国东,胡月,等.基于云理论的成都市水资源承载力评价[J].中国农村水利水电,2018(9):58-63.
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[11]广东省统计局,国家统计局广东调查总队.广东统计年鉴(2017)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.
[12]康艳,宋松柏.水资源承载力综合评价的变权灰色关联模型[J].节水灌溉,2014(3):48-53.
[13]SAHOO M M,PATRA K C,SWAIN J B,et al. Evaluation of water quality with application of Bayes'rule and entropy weight method[J]. European Journal of Environmental and Civil Engineering,2016,21(6):730-752.
[14]刘敏,聂振龙,王金哲,等.华北平原地下水资源承载力模糊综合评价[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(6):311-315.
[15]袁艳梅,沙晓军,刘煜晴,等.改进的模糊综合评价法在水资源承载力评价中的应用[J].水资源保护,2017,33(1):52-56.
[16]朱玲燕,苏维词.基于熵权法及灰色关联模型的水资源承载力研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(5):233-236.
[17]侯珏,刘芳,陈征.基于熵权和灰色关联分析的航道绿色水平综合评价方法[J].大连海事大学学报,2016,42(3):56-61.
[18]成琨,付强,任永泰,等.基于熵权与云模型的黑龙江省水资源承载力评价[J].东北农业大学学报,2015,46(8):75-80.
[19]PAKKAR M S. Multiple attribute grey relational analysis using DEA and AHP[J]. Complex&Intelligent Systems,2016,2(4):243-250.
[2]刘佳骏,董锁成,李泽红.中国水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(2):258-269.
[3]郭磊,黄本胜,邱静,等.基于趋势及回归分析的珠三角城市群需水预测[J].水利水电技术,2017,48(1):23-28.
[4]张日新,谷卓桐.粤港澳大湾区的来龙去脉与下一步[J].改革,2017(5):64-71.
[5]覃成林,刘丽玲,覃文昊.粤港澳大湾区城市群发展战略思考[J].区域经济评论,2017(5):113-118.
[6]张杰,邓晓军,翟禄新,等.基于熵权的广西水资源可持续利用模糊综合评价[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(5):385-389+396.
[7]梁彩霞.基于因子分析法和熵权法的肇庆市水资源短缺风险评价[J].广东水利水电,2018(10):1-4.
[8]孙月峰,张表志,闫雅飞,等.基于熵权的城市水资源安全模糊综合评价研究[J].安全与环境学报,2014,14(1):87-91.
[9]贺欣悦,刘国东,胡月,等.基于云理论的成都市水资源承载力评价[J].中国农村水利水电,2018(9):58-63.
[10]职璐爽.广东省水资源脆弱性评价[D].西安:西安理工大学,2018.
[11]广东省统计局,国家统计局广东调查总队.广东统计年鉴(2017)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.
[12]康艳,宋松柏.水资源承载力综合评价的变权灰色关联模型[J].节水灌溉,2014(3):48-53.
[13]SAHOO M M,PATRA K C,SWAIN J B,et al. Evaluation of water quality with application of Bayes'rule and entropy weight method[J]. European Journal of Environmental and Civil Engineering,2016,21(6):730-752.
[14]刘敏,聂振龙,王金哲,等.华北平原地下水资源承载力模糊综合评价[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(6):311-315.
[15]袁艳梅,沙晓军,刘煜晴,等.改进的模糊综合评价法在水资源承载力评价中的应用[J].水资源保护,2017,33(1):52-56.
[16]朱玲燕,苏维词.基于熵权法及灰色关联模型的水资源承载力研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(5):233-236.
[17]侯珏,刘芳,陈征.基于熵权和灰色关联分析的航道绿色水平综合评价方法[J].大连海事大学学报,2016,42(3):56-61.
[18]成琨,付强,任永泰,等.基于熵权与云模型的黑龙江省水资源承载力评价[J].东北农业大学学报,2015,46(8):75-80.
[19]PAKKAR M S. Multiple attribute grey relational analysis using DEA and AHP[J]. Complex&Intelligent Systems,2016,2(4):243-250.
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