基于贝叶斯网络的水力发电系统动态风险评估方法
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摘要
水力发电系统的风险评估对水电站的安全运行有着重要意义。本文结合风险理论与贝叶斯网络,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的水力发电系统动态风险评估方法。该方法使用专家经验与故障树建立贝叶斯网络结构,对风险事故原因及事故间的因果关系进行有效分析,利用模糊综合评价法计算风险的发生概率以及产生的经济后果、社会后果与环境后果,采用风险等级表与狄利克雷模型对系统进行静态风险分析与动态风险评估,并以7个主要部件为例,建立了水力发电系统的风险评估模型。最后,通过模拟的故障信号对模型进行实时的风险评估,证明了方法的有效性。
Considering the lack of research on risk assessment of hydropower system,combined with risk theory and Bayesian network,a dynamic risk assessment method for hydropower system based on Bayesian network is proposed. The method uses expert experience and fault tree to establish Bayesian network structure,and analyzes the cause of risk accidents and the causal relationship between accidents. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the failure probability of equipment and the corresponding economic,social and environmental consequences. A risk scale and Dirichlet model are established to carry out static risk analysis and dynamic risk assessment of the system. According to the proposed method,the seven major components of the hydropower system are taken as examples to establish a risk assessment model for the hydropower system. Finally, the real-time risk assessment of the model through the simulated fault signal verifies the feasibility of the method.
Considering the lack of research on risk assessment of hydropower system,combined with risk theory and Bayesian network,a dynamic risk assessment method for hydropower system based on Bayesian network is proposed. The method uses expert experience and fault tree to establish Bayesian network structure,and analyzes the cause of risk accidents and the causal relationship between accidents. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the failure probability of equipment and the corresponding economic,social and environmental consequences. A risk scale and Dirichlet model are established to carry out static risk analysis and dynamic risk assessment of the system. According to the proposed method,the seven major components of the hydropower system are taken as examples to establish a risk assessment model for the hydropower system. Finally, the real-time risk assessment of the model through the simulated fault signal verifies the feasibility of the method.
引文
[1] FORTOV V E,FEDOROV M P,ELISTRATOV V V. Scientific and technological problems of the hydropower industry after the accident at the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydropower plant[J]. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences,2011,81(4):333-340.
[2] BIAN K,LIU J,XIAO M,et al. Cause investigation and verification of lining cracking of bifurcation tunnel at Huizhou Pumped Storage Power Station[J]. Tunnelling&Underground Space Technology,2016,54(27):123-134.
[3] JI Y,HUANG G H,SUN W. Risk assessment of hydropower stations through an integrated fuzzy entropy-weight multiple criteria decision making method:A case study of the Xiangxi River[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2015,42(12):5380-5389.
[4]顾冲时,苏怀智,刘何稚.大坝服役风险分析与管理研究述评[J].水利学报,2018,49(1):26-35.
[5]钟登华,闫玉亮,张隽,等.耦合改进PERT和BBNs的堆石坝施工进度风险分析[J].水利学报,2017,48(1):52-60.
[6] SAEDI A M,THAMBIRAJAH J J,PARIATAMBY A. A HIRARC model for safety and risk evaluation at a hydroelectric power generation plant[J]. Safety Science,2014,70(23):308-315.
[7] XU B,CHEN D,LI H,et al. Priority analysis for risk factors of equipment in a hydraulic turbine generator unit[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2019,58(3):1-7.
[8] TANG W,LI Z,TU Y. Sustainability risk evaluation for large-scale hydropower projects with hybrid uncertainty[J]. Sustainability,2018,10(1):119-138.
[9] JIANG Z,WU W,QIN H,et al. Credibility theory based panoramic fuzzy risk analysis of hydropower station operation near the boundary[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2018,565(30):474-488.
[10]戴婷,蓝磊,陈小月,等. 500kV GIS水电站雷电侵入波计算方法及风险评估[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(12):169-172.
[11]薛进平,胡志根,刘全.梯级水电站建设施工导流风险分析[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2014,46(1):75-80.
[12]康玲,何小聪,熊其玲.基于贝叶斯网络理论的南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区降水丰枯遭遇风险分析[J].水利学报,2010,41(8):908-913.
[13] ONGARO A,MIGLIORATI S. A generalization of the Dirichlet distribution[J]. Journal of Multivariate Analysis,2013,114(38):412-426.
[14]张秋文,章永志,钟鸣.基于云模型的水库诱发地震风险多级模糊综合评价[J].水利学报,2014,45(1):87-95.
[15] SHI L,SHUAI J,XU K. Fuzzy fault tree assessment based on improved AHP for fire and explosion accidents for steel oil storage tanks[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials,2014,278(5):529-538.
[16] SYKORA M,MARKOVá,JANA,et al. Bayesian network application for the risk assessment of existing energy production units[J]. Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2018,169(43):312-320.
[17] GU J,GHOSAL S,KLEINER D E. Bayesian ROC curve estimation under verification bias[J]. Statistics in Medicine,2014,33(29):5081-5096.
[2] BIAN K,LIU J,XIAO M,et al. Cause investigation and verification of lining cracking of bifurcation tunnel at Huizhou Pumped Storage Power Station[J]. Tunnelling&Underground Space Technology,2016,54(27):123-134.
[3] JI Y,HUANG G H,SUN W. Risk assessment of hydropower stations through an integrated fuzzy entropy-weight multiple criteria decision making method:A case study of the Xiangxi River[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2015,42(12):5380-5389.
[4]顾冲时,苏怀智,刘何稚.大坝服役风险分析与管理研究述评[J].水利学报,2018,49(1):26-35.
[5]钟登华,闫玉亮,张隽,等.耦合改进PERT和BBNs的堆石坝施工进度风险分析[J].水利学报,2017,48(1):52-60.
[6] SAEDI A M,THAMBIRAJAH J J,PARIATAMBY A. A HIRARC model for safety and risk evaluation at a hydroelectric power generation plant[J]. Safety Science,2014,70(23):308-315.
[7] XU B,CHEN D,LI H,et al. Priority analysis for risk factors of equipment in a hydraulic turbine generator unit[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2019,58(3):1-7.
[8] TANG W,LI Z,TU Y. Sustainability risk evaluation for large-scale hydropower projects with hybrid uncertainty[J]. Sustainability,2018,10(1):119-138.
[9] JIANG Z,WU W,QIN H,et al. Credibility theory based panoramic fuzzy risk analysis of hydropower station operation near the boundary[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2018,565(30):474-488.
[10]戴婷,蓝磊,陈小月,等. 500kV GIS水电站雷电侵入波计算方法及风险评估[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(12):169-172.
[11]薛进平,胡志根,刘全.梯级水电站建设施工导流风险分析[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2014,46(1):75-80.
[12]康玲,何小聪,熊其玲.基于贝叶斯网络理论的南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区降水丰枯遭遇风险分析[J].水利学报,2010,41(8):908-913.
[13] ONGARO A,MIGLIORATI S. A generalization of the Dirichlet distribution[J]. Journal of Multivariate Analysis,2013,114(38):412-426.
[14]张秋文,章永志,钟鸣.基于云模型的水库诱发地震风险多级模糊综合评价[J].水利学报,2014,45(1):87-95.
[15] SHI L,SHUAI J,XU K. Fuzzy fault tree assessment based on improved AHP for fire and explosion accidents for steel oil storage tanks[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials,2014,278(5):529-538.
[16] SYKORA M,MARKOVá,JANA,et al. Bayesian network application for the risk assessment of existing energy production units[J]. Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2018,169(43):312-320.
[17] GU J,GHOSAL S,KLEINER D E. Bayesian ROC curve estimation under verification bias[J]. Statistics in Medicine,2014,33(29):5081-5096.
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