平行应急疏散系统:基本概念、体系框架及其应用
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摘要
突发事件通常具有难以预测、多成因关联、危害性大及演变复杂等特点,应急情况下如何安全高效疏散人员是应急管控领域的重要研究内容.本文将基于人工系统(Artificial systems, A)、计算实验(Computational experiments, C)、平行执行(Parallel excution, P)方法的平行系统理论引入到应急管控领域,提出平行应急疏散系统(Parallel emergency evacuation systems, PeES)基本概念,构建系统体系框架及集成平台,并介绍人工应急疏散系统、计算实验、平行执行等主要功能模块的基本功能及实现方法.通过Pe ES能实现虚实应急疏散系统的管理与控制、应急方案的实验与评估以及相关人员的学习与培训.最后,以轨道交通枢纽站火灾场景下的乘客应急疏散为典型应用对平行应急疏散系统进行初步验证.
Emergencies are usually characterized by unpredictable, multi-cause interconnection, great perniciousness,and complicated evolution. How to evacuate personnel safely and efficiently in case of an emergency is an important research content in the field of emergency management and control. This paper proposes the basic concept, framework and integrated platform of parallel emergency evacuation systems(PeES) by introducing the ACP(Artificial systems,Computational experiments, Parallel excution) method based parallel system theory to the field of emergency management and control. The basic functions and implementation methods of main functional modules, including artificial emergency evacuation systems, computational experiments, and parallel execution, are presented. The management and control of artificial and actual systems, experiment and assessment of emergency plans, and study and training of related personnel can be realized through the PeES. Finally, a preliminary verification of the PeES is conducted using the emergency evacuation of passengers in a fire scene at a rail transportation hub station.
Emergencies are usually characterized by unpredictable, multi-cause interconnection, great perniciousness,and complicated evolution. How to evacuate personnel safely and efficiently in case of an emergency is an important research content in the field of emergency management and control. This paper proposes the basic concept, framework and integrated platform of parallel emergency evacuation systems(PeES) by introducing the ACP(Artificial systems,Computational experiments, Parallel excution) method based parallel system theory to the field of emergency management and control. The basic functions and implementation methods of main functional modules, including artificial emergency evacuation systems, computational experiments, and parallel execution, are presented. The management and control of artificial and actual systems, experiment and assessment of emergency plans, and study and training of related personnel can be realized through the PeES. Finally, a preliminary verification of the PeES is conducted using the emergency evacuation of passengers in a fire scene at a rail transportation hub station.
引文
1 Shan Chun-Chang.Establish a sound emergency response plan.Disaster Reduction in China,2004,(6):15-16(闪淳昌.建立健全突发事件应急预案.中国减灾,2004,(6):15-16)
2 Cao Jie,Yang Xiao-Guang,Wang Shou-Yang.Important scientific issues in the research of public emergency management.Journal of Public Management,2007,(4):84-85(曹杰,杨晓光,汪寿阳.突发公共事件应急管理研究中的重要科学问题,公共管理学报,2007,(4):84-85)
3 Fan Wei-Cheng.Advisement and suggestion to scientific problems of emergency management for public incidents.Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China,2007,(2):71-76(范维澄.国家突发公共事件应急管理中科学问题的思考和建议.中国科学基金,2007,(2):71-76)
4 Yang Lie-Xun,Deng Yun-Feng.Scientific problems of emergency management.Progress in Natural Science,2007,17(4):505(杨列勋,邓云峰.国家突发公共事件应急管理中的科学问题.自然科学进展,2007,17(4):505)
5 Ji Lei,Chi Hong,Chen An,Chen Jian-Ming,Zhao Hong.Emergency management.Beijing:Higher Education Press,2006(计雷,池宏,陈安,陈建明,赵红.突发事件应急管理.北京:高等教育出版社,2006)
6 He Jian-Min,Liu Chun-Lin.Emergency management and emergency systems.Beijing:Sciences Press,2005(何建敏,刘春林.应急管理与应急系统.北京:科学出版社,2005)
7 Tan L,Hu M Y,Lin H.Agent-based simulation of building evacuation:Combining human behavior with predictable spatial accessibility in a fire emergency.Information Sciences,2015,(295):53-66
8 Zhou M,Dong H R,Wen D,Yao X M,Sun X B.Modeling of crowd evacuation with assailants via a fuzzy logic approach.IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2016,17(9):2395-2407
9 Zhang H,Liu H,Qin X,Liu B X.Modified two-layer social force model for emergency earthquake evacuation.Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2018,(492):1107-1119
10 Wang Fei-Yue.Computational theory and method on complex system.China Basic Science,2004,6(5):3-10(王飞跃.关于复杂系统研究的计算理论与方法.中国基础科学,2004,6(5):3-10)
11 Wang Fei-Yue.Parallel system methods for management and control of complex systems.Control and Decision,2004,19(5):485-489,514(王飞跃.平行系统方法与复杂系统的管理和控制.控制与决策,2004,19(5):485-489,514)
12 Wang Fei-Yue.Computational experiments for behavior analysis and decision evaluation of complex systems.Journal of System Simulation,2004,16(5):893-897(王飞跃.计算实验方法与复杂系统行为分析和决策评估.系统仿真学报,2004,16(5):893-897)
13 Wang Fei-Yue.Artificial societies,computational experiments,and parallel systems:a discussion on computational theory of complex social-economic systems.Complex Systems and Complexity Science,2004,1(4):25-35(王飞跃.人工社会、计算实验、平行系统-关于复杂社会经济系统计算研究的讨论.复杂系统与复杂性科学,2004,1(4):25-35)
14 Wang F Y.Parallel control and management for intelligent transportation systems:concepts,architectures,and applications.IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2010,11(3):630-638
15 Lv Y S,Zhang X Q,Kang W W,Duan Y J.Managing Emergency Traffic evacuation with a partially random destination allocation strategy:a computational-experimentbased optimization approach.IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2015,16(4):2182-2191
16 Ning B,Tang T,Dong H R,Wen D,Liu D R.An introduction to parallel control and management for high-speed railway systems.IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2011,12(4):1473-1483
17 Dong H R,Ouyang R H,Ning B,Chen G R.Parallel experiment for urban rail emergency evacuation:An approach for hub identification.IEEE Intelligent Systems,2013,28(4):52-59
18 Wang Fei-Yue,Wang Xiao,Yuan Yong,Wang Tao,Lin YiLun.Social computing and computational societies:The foundation and consequence of smart societies.Chinese Science Bulletin,2015,60(5-6):460-469(王飞跃,王晓,袁勇,王涛,林懿伦.社会计算与计算社会:智慧社会的基础与必然.科学通报,2015,60(5-6):460-469)
19 Wang Fei-Yue,Zhang Mei,Meng Xiang-Bing,Wang Rong,Wang Xiao,Zhang Zhi-Cheng,et al.Parallel surgery:an acp-based approach for intelligent operations.Pattern Recognition And Artificial Intelligence,2017,30(11):961-970(王飞跃,张梅,孟祥冰,王蓉,王晓,张志成,等.平行手术:基于ACP的智能手术计算方法.模式识别与人工智能,2017,30(11):961-970)
20 Duan W,Cao Z D,Wang Y Z,Zhu B,Zeng D,Wang F Y,et.al.An ACP approach to public health emergency management:using a campus outbreak of H1N1 influenza as a case study.IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics:Systems,2013,43(5):1028-1041
21 Yuan Yong,Wang Fei-Yue.Parallel Blockchain:Concept,Methods and Issues.Acta Automatica Sinica,2017,43(10):1703-1712(袁勇,王飞跃.平行区块链:概念,方法与内涵解析.自动化学报,2017,43(10):1703-1712)
22 Yuan Yong,Wang Fei-Yue.Blockchain:The State of the Art and Future Trends.Acta Automatica Sinica,2016,42(4):481-494(袁勇,王飞跃.区块链技术发展现状与展望.自动化学报,2016,42(4):481-494)
23 Yuan Yong,Ni Xiao-Chun,Zeng Shuai,Wang Fei-Yue.Blockchain Consensus Algorithms:The State of the Art and Future Trends.Acta Automatica Sinica,2018,44(11):2011-2022(袁勇,倪晓春,曾帅,王飞跃.区块链共识算法的发展现状与展望.自动化学报,2018,44(11):2011-2022)
24 Wang Fei-Yue.PeMS:parallel execution-based emergency management system.China Emergence Management,2007,(12):22-28(王飞跃.平行应急管理系统PeMS的体系框架及其应用研究.中国应急管理,2007,(12):22-28)
25 Wang Fei-Yue,Qiu Xiao-Gang,Zeng Da-Jun,Cao ZhiDong,Fan Zong-Chen.A computational experimental platform for emergency response based on parallel systems.Complex Systems and Complexity Science,2010,7(4):1-10(王飞跃,邱晓刚,曾大军,曹志冬,樊宗臣.基于平行系统的非常规突发事件计算实验平台研究.复杂系统与复杂性科学,2010,7(4):1-10)
26 Sun Xu-Bin,Dong Hai-Rong,Ning Bin,Gao Tong-Xin,Kong Qing-Jie.ACP-based emergency evacuation system.Acta Automatica Sinica,2014,40(1):16-23(孙绪彬,董海荣,宁滨,高童欣,孔庆杰.基于ACP方法的应急疏散系统研究.自动化学报,2014,40(1):16-23)
27 Hu Yu-Ling,Wang Fei-Yue,Liu Xi-Wei.ACP-based Research on evacuation strategies for high-rise building fire.Acta Automatica Sinica,2014,40(2):185-196(胡玉玲,王飞跃,刘希未.基于ACP方法的高层建筑火灾中人员疏散策略研究.自动化学报,2014,40(2):185-196)
28 Lun Shu-Xian.Research on the classification of parallel execution mode of ACP theory.Acta Automatica Sinica,2012,38(10):1602-1608(伦淑娴.ACP理论的平行执行方式分类研究.自动化学报,2012,38(10):1602-1608)
29 Helbing D,Farkas I,Vicsek T.Simulating dynamical features of escape panic.Nature,2000,470(6803):487-490
30 Liu Q.A social force model for the crowd evacuation in a terrorist attack.Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2018,(502):315-330
31 Burstedde C,Klauck K,Schadschneider A,Zittartz J.Simulation of pedestrian dynamics using a two-dimensional cellular automaton.Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2001,295(3):507-525
32 Lu L,Chan C Y,Wang J,Wang W.A study of pedestrian group behaviors in crowd evacuation based on an extended floor field cellular automaton model.Transportation Research,Part C:Emerging Technologies,2017,(81):317-329
33 Antonini G,Bierlaire M,Weber M.Discrete choice models of pedestrian walking behavior.Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2006,40(8):667-687
34 Zhou M,Dong H R,Wang F Y,Wang Q L,Yang X X.Modeling and simulation of pedestrian dynamical behavior based on a fuzzy logic approach.Information Sciences,2016,(360):112-130
35 Zhou M,Dong H R,Wen D,Yao X M,Sun X B.Modeling of crowd evacuation with assailants via a fuzzy logic approach.IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2016,17(9):2395-2407
36 Wang Q L,Dong H R,Ning B,Wang L Y,Yin G,Twotime-scale hybrid traffic models for pedestrian crowds.IEEETransactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2018,17(11):3449-3460
37 Yang X X,Dong H R,Wang Q L,Chen Y,Hu X M.Guided crowd dynamics via modified social force model.Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2014,(411):63-73
38 Yang X X,Dong H R,Yao X M,Sun X B,Wang Q L,Zhou M.Necessity of guides in pedestrian emergency evacuation.Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2016,(442):397-408
2 Cao Jie,Yang Xiao-Guang,Wang Shou-Yang.Important scientific issues in the research of public emergency management.Journal of Public Management,2007,(4):84-85(曹杰,杨晓光,汪寿阳.突发公共事件应急管理研究中的重要科学问题,公共管理学报,2007,(4):84-85)
3 Fan Wei-Cheng.Advisement and suggestion to scientific problems of emergency management for public incidents.Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China,2007,(2):71-76(范维澄.国家突发公共事件应急管理中科学问题的思考和建议.中国科学基金,2007,(2):71-76)
4 Yang Lie-Xun,Deng Yun-Feng.Scientific problems of emergency management.Progress in Natural Science,2007,17(4):505(杨列勋,邓云峰.国家突发公共事件应急管理中的科学问题.自然科学进展,2007,17(4):505)
5 Ji Lei,Chi Hong,Chen An,Chen Jian-Ming,Zhao Hong.Emergency management.Beijing:Higher Education Press,2006(计雷,池宏,陈安,陈建明,赵红.突发事件应急管理.北京:高等教育出版社,2006)
6 He Jian-Min,Liu Chun-Lin.Emergency management and emergency systems.Beijing:Sciences Press,2005(何建敏,刘春林.应急管理与应急系统.北京:科学出版社,2005)
7 Tan L,Hu M Y,Lin H.Agent-based simulation of building evacuation:Combining human behavior with predictable spatial accessibility in a fire emergency.Information Sciences,2015,(295):53-66
8 Zhou M,Dong H R,Wen D,Yao X M,Sun X B.Modeling of crowd evacuation with assailants via a fuzzy logic approach.IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2016,17(9):2395-2407
9 Zhang H,Liu H,Qin X,Liu B X.Modified two-layer social force model for emergency earthquake evacuation.Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2018,(492):1107-1119
10 Wang Fei-Yue.Computational theory and method on complex system.China Basic Science,2004,6(5):3-10(王飞跃.关于复杂系统研究的计算理论与方法.中国基础科学,2004,6(5):3-10)
11 Wang Fei-Yue.Parallel system methods for management and control of complex systems.Control and Decision,2004,19(5):485-489,514(王飞跃.平行系统方法与复杂系统的管理和控制.控制与决策,2004,19(5):485-489,514)
12 Wang Fei-Yue.Computational experiments for behavior analysis and decision evaluation of complex systems.Journal of System Simulation,2004,16(5):893-897(王飞跃.计算实验方法与复杂系统行为分析和决策评估.系统仿真学报,2004,16(5):893-897)
13 Wang Fei-Yue.Artificial societies,computational experiments,and parallel systems:a discussion on computational theory of complex social-economic systems.Complex Systems and Complexity Science,2004,1(4):25-35(王飞跃.人工社会、计算实验、平行系统-关于复杂社会经济系统计算研究的讨论.复杂系统与复杂性科学,2004,1(4):25-35)
14 Wang F Y.Parallel control and management for intelligent transportation systems:concepts,architectures,and applications.IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2010,11(3):630-638
15 Lv Y S,Zhang X Q,Kang W W,Duan Y J.Managing Emergency Traffic evacuation with a partially random destination allocation strategy:a computational-experimentbased optimization approach.IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2015,16(4):2182-2191
16 Ning B,Tang T,Dong H R,Wen D,Liu D R.An introduction to parallel control and management for high-speed railway systems.IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2011,12(4):1473-1483
17 Dong H R,Ouyang R H,Ning B,Chen G R.Parallel experiment for urban rail emergency evacuation:An approach for hub identification.IEEE Intelligent Systems,2013,28(4):52-59
18 Wang Fei-Yue,Wang Xiao,Yuan Yong,Wang Tao,Lin YiLun.Social computing and computational societies:The foundation and consequence of smart societies.Chinese Science Bulletin,2015,60(5-6):460-469(王飞跃,王晓,袁勇,王涛,林懿伦.社会计算与计算社会:智慧社会的基础与必然.科学通报,2015,60(5-6):460-469)
19 Wang Fei-Yue,Zhang Mei,Meng Xiang-Bing,Wang Rong,Wang Xiao,Zhang Zhi-Cheng,et al.Parallel surgery:an acp-based approach for intelligent operations.Pattern Recognition And Artificial Intelligence,2017,30(11):961-970(王飞跃,张梅,孟祥冰,王蓉,王晓,张志成,等.平行手术:基于ACP的智能手术计算方法.模式识别与人工智能,2017,30(11):961-970)
20 Duan W,Cao Z D,Wang Y Z,Zhu B,Zeng D,Wang F Y,et.al.An ACP approach to public health emergency management:using a campus outbreak of H1N1 influenza as a case study.IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics:Systems,2013,43(5):1028-1041
21 Yuan Yong,Wang Fei-Yue.Parallel Blockchain:Concept,Methods and Issues.Acta Automatica Sinica,2017,43(10):1703-1712(袁勇,王飞跃.平行区块链:概念,方法与内涵解析.自动化学报,2017,43(10):1703-1712)
22 Yuan Yong,Wang Fei-Yue.Blockchain:The State of the Art and Future Trends.Acta Automatica Sinica,2016,42(4):481-494(袁勇,王飞跃.区块链技术发展现状与展望.自动化学报,2016,42(4):481-494)
23 Yuan Yong,Ni Xiao-Chun,Zeng Shuai,Wang Fei-Yue.Blockchain Consensus Algorithms:The State of the Art and Future Trends.Acta Automatica Sinica,2018,44(11):2011-2022(袁勇,倪晓春,曾帅,王飞跃.区块链共识算法的发展现状与展望.自动化学报,2018,44(11):2011-2022)
24 Wang Fei-Yue.PeMS:parallel execution-based emergency management system.China Emergence Management,2007,(12):22-28(王飞跃.平行应急管理系统PeMS的体系框架及其应用研究.中国应急管理,2007,(12):22-28)
25 Wang Fei-Yue,Qiu Xiao-Gang,Zeng Da-Jun,Cao ZhiDong,Fan Zong-Chen.A computational experimental platform for emergency response based on parallel systems.Complex Systems and Complexity Science,2010,7(4):1-10(王飞跃,邱晓刚,曾大军,曹志冬,樊宗臣.基于平行系统的非常规突发事件计算实验平台研究.复杂系统与复杂性科学,2010,7(4):1-10)
26 Sun Xu-Bin,Dong Hai-Rong,Ning Bin,Gao Tong-Xin,Kong Qing-Jie.ACP-based emergency evacuation system.Acta Automatica Sinica,2014,40(1):16-23(孙绪彬,董海荣,宁滨,高童欣,孔庆杰.基于ACP方法的应急疏散系统研究.自动化学报,2014,40(1):16-23)
27 Hu Yu-Ling,Wang Fei-Yue,Liu Xi-Wei.ACP-based Research on evacuation strategies for high-rise building fire.Acta Automatica Sinica,2014,40(2):185-196(胡玉玲,王飞跃,刘希未.基于ACP方法的高层建筑火灾中人员疏散策略研究.自动化学报,2014,40(2):185-196)
28 Lun Shu-Xian.Research on the classification of parallel execution mode of ACP theory.Acta Automatica Sinica,2012,38(10):1602-1608(伦淑娴.ACP理论的平行执行方式分类研究.自动化学报,2012,38(10):1602-1608)
29 Helbing D,Farkas I,Vicsek T.Simulating dynamical features of escape panic.Nature,2000,470(6803):487-490
30 Liu Q.A social force model for the crowd evacuation in a terrorist attack.Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2018,(502):315-330
31 Burstedde C,Klauck K,Schadschneider A,Zittartz J.Simulation of pedestrian dynamics using a two-dimensional cellular automaton.Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2001,295(3):507-525
32 Lu L,Chan C Y,Wang J,Wang W.A study of pedestrian group behaviors in crowd evacuation based on an extended floor field cellular automaton model.Transportation Research,Part C:Emerging Technologies,2017,(81):317-329
33 Antonini G,Bierlaire M,Weber M.Discrete choice models of pedestrian walking behavior.Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2006,40(8):667-687
34 Zhou M,Dong H R,Wang F Y,Wang Q L,Yang X X.Modeling and simulation of pedestrian dynamical behavior based on a fuzzy logic approach.Information Sciences,2016,(360):112-130
35 Zhou M,Dong H R,Wen D,Yao X M,Sun X B.Modeling of crowd evacuation with assailants via a fuzzy logic approach.IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2016,17(9):2395-2407
36 Wang Q L,Dong H R,Ning B,Wang L Y,Yin G,Twotime-scale hybrid traffic models for pedestrian crowds.IEEETransactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2018,17(11):3449-3460
37 Yang X X,Dong H R,Wang Q L,Chen Y,Hu X M.Guided crowd dynamics via modified social force model.Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2014,(411):63-73
38 Yang X X,Dong H R,Yao X M,Sun X B,Wang Q L,Zhou M.Necessity of guides in pedestrian emergency evacuation.Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2016,(442):397-408
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