皖西北地区夏季高温热浪时空变化特征分析
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摘要
为了探究皖西北地区夏季高温热浪事件的特点及规律,利用皖西北地区6个气象站1959—2016年夏季(6—8月)逐日最高气温资料,对皖西北地区58年来夏季高温热浪频次、日数及强度的时空变化特征进行统计分析。结果表明,皖西北地区高温热浪频次、日数和强度的空间分布基本相似,整体上西北部为高值区、东南部为低值区。皖西北地区是高温热浪多发地区,年均发生高温热浪频次为2.1次·年~(-1),其中轻度热浪占1.5次·年~(-1)、中度0.5次·年~(-1)、重度0.1次·年~(-1);年均热浪日数为11.0 d·年~(-1)、强度为18.8℃·d·年~(-1)。高温热浪频次、日数和强度的年较差变化都较大,高值年基本都出现在20世纪50、60年代,21世纪出现在2013年。一般高温热浪频次多的年份对应的热浪日数较多,同时强度也较大。高温热浪频次、日数和强度整体上都呈减少趋势,分别以0.2次·10年~(-1)、1.7d·10年~(-1)、4.3℃·d·10年~(-1)的速度减小;其年代际变化极为相似,都呈先减后增的变化趋势,即20世纪50、60年代—90年代中期呈下降趋势,90年代末至今转为上升趋势。
To explore the characteristics and rules of high temperature heatwave events in summer in Northwest Anhui, based on daily maximum temperature data(from Jun. to Aug. during 1959-2016) of 6 Meteorological Stations in this area, we carried out statistical analysis of the spatial-temporal change characteristics of high temperature and heatwave frequency, days and intensity in the summer for the past 58 years. The results showed that the high temperature and heatwave frequency, days and intensity in spatial distribution were basically similar, with regional differences of northwest higher and southeast lower. As a frequent high temperature and heatwave area, the annual frequency was 2.1·a~(-1), in which mild, moderate and severe heatwaves occupied 1.5·a~(-1), 0.5·a~(-1), and 0.1·a~(-1), respectively. The annual days and intensity of high temperature and heatwave were 11.0 d·a~(-1), 18.8℃·d·a~(-1). The frequency,days and intensity of annual range varied greatly, most of the related high-value years appeared in the 1950 s and1960 s, and in this century, it appeared in 2013. Generally, the year of more high temperature and heatwave frequency corresponded with more days and greater intensity. The frequency, days and intensity reduced by a speed of 0.2·10 a~(-1),1.7 d·10 a~(-1) and 4.3℃·d·10 a~(-1), respectively. The decadal variability of high temperature and heatwave frequency, days and intensity was basically the same, with the trend of decreasing firstly and then increasing, i.e. a decrease trend from 1950-1960 s to 1990 s, and an increase trend from the end of 1990 s to the present.
To explore the characteristics and rules of high temperature heatwave events in summer in Northwest Anhui, based on daily maximum temperature data(from Jun. to Aug. during 1959-2016) of 6 Meteorological Stations in this area, we carried out statistical analysis of the spatial-temporal change characteristics of high temperature and heatwave frequency, days and intensity in the summer for the past 58 years. The results showed that the high temperature and heatwave frequency, days and intensity in spatial distribution were basically similar, with regional differences of northwest higher and southeast lower. As a frequent high temperature and heatwave area, the annual frequency was 2.1·a~(-1), in which mild, moderate and severe heatwaves occupied 1.5·a~(-1), 0.5·a~(-1), and 0.1·a~(-1), respectively. The annual days and intensity of high temperature and heatwave were 11.0 d·a~(-1), 18.8℃·d·a~(-1). The frequency,days and intensity of annual range varied greatly, most of the related high-value years appeared in the 1950 s and1960 s, and in this century, it appeared in 2013. Generally, the year of more high temperature and heatwave frequency corresponded with more days and greater intensity. The frequency, days and intensity reduced by a speed of 0.2·10 a~(-1),1.7 d·10 a~(-1) and 4.3℃·d·10 a~(-1), respectively. The decadal variability of high temperature and heatwave frequency, days and intensity was basically the same, with the trend of decreasing firstly and then increasing, i.e. a decrease trend from 1950-1960 s to 1990 s, and an increase trend from the end of 1990 s to the present.
引文
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[16]袁新田,徐光来,徐国伟,等.皖北地区的气温变率研究[J].安徽农业大学学报,2012,39(2):292-296.
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[18]黄卓,陈辉,田华.高温热浪指标研究[J].气象,2011,37(3):345-351.
[19]项阳,张庆奎,尉传阳,等.阜阳市霜冻变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(11):156-160.
[2]叶殿秀,尹继福,陈正洪,等.1961-2010年我国夏季高温热浪的时空变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):15-20.
[3]史军,丁一汇,崔林丽,等.华东地区夏季高温期的气候特征及其变化规律[J].地理学报,2008,63(3):237-246.
[4]李琪,苏欢,史雨涵,等.1961-2010年江浙沪地区夏季高温热浪时空变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(3):506-512.
[5]张可慧,李正涛,刘剑锋,等.河北地区高温热浪时空特征及其对工业,交通的影响研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2011,27(6):90-95.
[6]DING T,QIAN W H,YAN Z W.Changes in hot days and heat waves in China during 1961-2007[J].Int J Climatol,2010,30:1452-1462.
[7]宋连春,肖风劲,叶殿秀.气象灾害影响及风险评估理论与实践[M].北京:气象出版社,2012:64-74.
[8]赵梓淇,李丽光,王宏博,等.1961-2010年辽宁高温日数和热浪特征[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(5):57-61.
[9]许遐祯,郑有飞,尹继福,等.南京市高温热浪特征及其对人体健康的影响[J].生态学杂志,2011,30(12):2815-2820.
[10]窦坤,程德海,孙翠凤,等.1961-2014年鲁西南高温日数及高温热浪时空变化特征[J].气象研究与应用,2015,36(2):26-30.
[11]邢彩盈,张京红,吴胜安,等.近50年海南岛高温日数和热浪的气候特征[J].中国农学通报,2017,33(22):107-112.
[12]李双双,杨赛霓,张东海,等.近54年京津冀地区热浪时空变化特征及影响因素[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(5):545-554.
[13]张天宇,程炳岩.重庆高温热浪指数和暖夜指数变化及其情景预估[J].气象科技[J].气象科技,2010,38(6):695-703.
[14]葛非凡,毛克彪,蒋跃林,等.华东地区夏季极端高温特征及其对植被的影响[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(1):42-51.
[15]叶金印,黄勇,张春莉,等.近50年淮河流域气候变化时空特征分析[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(1):84-91.
[16]袁新田,徐光来,徐国伟,等.皖北地区的气温变率研究[J].安徽农业大学学报,2012,39(2):292-296.
[17]罗妤,吴坚,徐鑫晶.合肥市平均气温动态变化的非平稳时序分析[J].安徽农业大学学报,2013(6):33.1059-1062.
[18]黄卓,陈辉,田华.高温热浪指标研究[J].气象,2011,37(3):345-351.
[19]项阳,张庆奎,尉传阳,等.阜阳市霜冻变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(11):156-160.
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