川西甘孜州1961—2015年气温和降水时空变化特征研究
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摘要
位于青藏高原向四川盆地过渡地带的甘孜藏族自治州,分布有大面积的国家自然保护区和海洋性冰川,了解和分析该区域气候变化的时空趋势,对规划该地区旅游发展、环境保护和生态文明建设具有特别重要的意义。根据1961—2015年甘孜州11个站点的气温和降水数据,采用线性回归、距平分析、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall突变检验及样条函数插值的方法,对甘孜州55年气温和降水的时空变化进行研究。研究表明:甘孜州全年和各季气温都呈现显著上升趋势,全年气温变化倾向率为0.242℃/10 a,春、夏、秋、冬气温倾向率分别为0.176℃/10 a、0.211℃/10 a、0.211℃/10 a、0.368℃/10 a,冬季气温的增加最为显著。气温倾向率在区内空间差异很大,随着海拔升高,增温速率增大。甘孜州的降水总体虽递增,但增加的趋势并不显著,全年降水倾向率为11.22 mm/10 a,各季降水倾向率分别为5.23 mm/10 a、4.15 mm/10 a、1.68 mm/10 a、0.22 mm/10 a,春、夏季降水的增加对于年降水贡献最大。降水倾向率在空间上呈现由东向西逐渐减小的趋势,在西南边缘地区降水甚至出现负增长。总体而言,甘孜州气候有向暖湿化发展的态势,这种趋势在高海拔地区表现得更为明显。
Ganzi is situated in the transition zone between the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin with a large areas of national nature reserves and marine glaciers. Analyzing the temporal and spatial trends of regional climate change is of special significance for planning tourism development, environmental protection and ecological civilization construction in the region. Based on the temperature and precipitation data from 11 sites in Ganzi during 1961 to 2015, methods of linear regression, anomaly analysis, moving average, Mann-Kendall mutation test, and spline interpolation were applied to analyze spatial and temporal characteristic of temperature and precipitation in Ganzi. The study showed that: Ganzi had a significant upward trend in the annual and seasonal temperatures, with a temperature change rate of 0.242 ℃/10 a for the whole year and 0.176 ℃/10 a、0.211 ℃/10 a、0.211 ℃/10 a、0.368 ℃/10 a for the spring, summer, autumn and winter temperatures respectively. The increase in winter temperature contributed most to the increase in annual average temperature. Spatial distribution of annual and seasonal temperature variation varied greatly in the area. With the increase of altitude, the rate of warming increased. Although the precipitation in Ganzi Prefecture was generally increasing, the trend was not significant. The annual precipitation increased at a rate of 11.22 mm/10 a, and the seasonal precipitation increased at a rate of 5.23 mm/10 a, 4.15 mm/10 a, 1.68 mm/10 a, and 0.22 mm/10 a respectively. The increase of precipitation in spring and summer contributed the most to annual precipitation. Annual precipitation tended to decrease from east to west in space, and precipitation may even decrease in the southwestern margin. In general, there is a warming and wetting trend of the climate in Ganzi, and this trend is more pronounced in high altitude areas.
Ganzi is situated in the transition zone between the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin with a large areas of national nature reserves and marine glaciers. Analyzing the temporal and spatial trends of regional climate change is of special significance for planning tourism development, environmental protection and ecological civilization construction in the region. Based on the temperature and precipitation data from 11 sites in Ganzi during 1961 to 2015, methods of linear regression, anomaly analysis, moving average, Mann-Kendall mutation test, and spline interpolation were applied to analyze spatial and temporal characteristic of temperature and precipitation in Ganzi. The study showed that: Ganzi had a significant upward trend in the annual and seasonal temperatures, with a temperature change rate of 0.242 ℃/10 a for the whole year and 0.176 ℃/10 a、0.211 ℃/10 a、0.211 ℃/10 a、0.368 ℃/10 a for the spring, summer, autumn and winter temperatures respectively. The increase in winter temperature contributed most to the increase in annual average temperature. Spatial distribution of annual and seasonal temperature variation varied greatly in the area. With the increase of altitude, the rate of warming increased. Although the precipitation in Ganzi Prefecture was generally increasing, the trend was not significant. The annual precipitation increased at a rate of 11.22 mm/10 a, and the seasonal precipitation increased at a rate of 5.23 mm/10 a, 4.15 mm/10 a, 1.68 mm/10 a, and 0.22 mm/10 a respectively. The increase of precipitation in spring and summer contributed the most to annual precipitation. Annual precipitation tended to decrease from east to west in space, and precipitation may even decrease in the southwestern margin. In general, there is a warming and wetting trend of the climate in Ganzi, and this trend is more pronounced in high altitude areas.
引文
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[2] 丁一汇,王会军.近百年中国气候变化科学问题的新认识[J].科学通报,2016,61(10):1029-1041.[DING Yihui,WANG Huijun.Newly acquired knowledge on the scientific issues related to climate change over the recent 100 years in China [J].Chinese Sciences Bulletin,2016,61(10):1029-1041]
[3] 韩翠华,郝志新,郑景云.1951—2010年中国气温变化分区及其区域特征[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):887-896.[HAN Cuihua,HAO Zhixin,ZHENG Jingyun.Regionalization of temperature changes in China and characteristics of temperature in different regions during 1951-2010 [J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(6):887-896]
[4] 贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961—2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.[HE Wei,BU Rencang,XIONG Zaiping,et al.Characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Northeastern China from 1961 to 2005 [J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(2):519-531]
[5] 李宗省,何元庆,辛惠娟,等.我国横断山区1960—2008年气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2010,65(5):563-579.[LI Zongxing,HE Yuanqing,XIN Huijuan,et al.Spatio-temporal Variations of Temperature and Precipitation in Mts.Hengduan Region during 1960-2008 [J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(5):563-579]
[6] 王建兵,王振国,汪治桂.甘南地区近40年气温变化特征[J].气象,2007,33(1):112-117.[WANG Jianbing,WANG Zhenguo,WANG Zhigui.Analysis of variation characteristics of temperature in Gannan ,Gansu Province [J].Meteorological Monthly,2007,33(1):112-117]
[7] 孟秀敬,张士锋,张永勇.河西走廊57年来气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2012,67(11):1482-1492.[MENG Xiujing,ZHANG Shifeng,ZHANG Yongyong.The temporal and spatial change of temperature and precipitation in Hexi Corridor in recent 57 years [J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(11):1482-1492]
[8] 王遵娅,丁一汇,何金海,等.近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J].气象学报,2004,62(2):228-236.[WANG Zunya,DING Yihui,HE Jinhai,et al.An updating analysis of the climate change in China in recent 50 years [J].Acta Meteorological Sinica,2004,62(2):228-236]
[9] 王英,曹明奎,陶波,等.全球气候变化背景下中国降水量空间格局的变化特征[J].地理研究,2006,25(6):1031-1040.[WANG Ying,CAO Mingkui,TAO Bo,et al.The characteristics of spatio-temporal patterns in precipitation in China under the background of global climate change [J].Geographical Research,2006,25(6):1031-1040]
[10] 商沙沙,廉丽姝,马婷,等.近54 a中国西北地区气温和降水的时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(1):68-76.[SHANG Shasha,LIANLishu,MA Ting,et al.Spatiotemporal variation of temperature and precipitation in Northwest China in recent 54 years [J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(1):68-76]
[11] 任国玉,吴虹,陈正洪.我国降水变化趋势的空间特征[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(3):322-330.[REN Guoyu,WU Hong,CHEN Zhenghong.Spatial patterns of change trend in rainfall of China [J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Sciences,2000,11(3):322-330]
[12] 周长艳,岑思弦,李跃清,等.四川省近50年降水的变化特征及影响[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):619-630.[ZHOU Changyan,CEN Sixuan,LI Yueqing,et al.Precipitation variation and its impacts in Sichuan in the last 50 years [J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(5):619-630]
[13] 杜华明,延军平.四川省气候变化特征与旱涝区域响应[J].资源科学,2013,35(12):2491-2500.[DU Huaming,YAN Junping.Climatic change and drought-flood regional responses in Sichuan [J].Resources Science,2013,35(12):2491-2500]
[14] WANG S,JIAO S,XIN H.Spatio-temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Sichuan Province,Southwestern China,1960-2009 [J].Quaternary International,2013,286(5-6):103-115.
[15] 潘保田,李吉均.青藏高原:全球气候变化的驱动机与放大器——Ⅲ.青藏高原隆起对气候变化的影响[J].兰州大学学报,1996,32(1):108-115.[PAN Baotian,LI Jijun.Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau:a driver and amplifier of the global climatic change [J].Journal of Lanzhou University,1996,32(1):108-115]
[16] 吴绍洪,尹云鹤,郑度,等.青藏高原近30年气候变化趋势[J].地理学报,2005,60(1):3-11.[WU Shaohong,YIN Yunhe,ZHENG Du,et al.Climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau during the last three decades [J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2005,60(1):3-11]
[17] 杜军,马玉才.西藏高原降水变化趋势的气候分析[J].地理学报,2004,59(3):375-382.[DU Jun,MA Yucai.Climatic trend of rainfall over Tibetan Plateau from 1971 to 2000 [J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2004,59(3):375-382]
[18] 王晓.1961—2011年甘孜州气温变化特征分析[J].安徽农业科学,2015,43(25):222-223.[WANG Xiao.Analysis of temperature variation characteristics of Ganzi Prefecture during 1961-2011 [J].Journal of Anhui Agriculture Science,2015,43(25):222-223]
[19] 常婷婷.青藏高原东部区域气候变化特征研究——以甘孜为例[D].成都:四川师范大学,2016:2-10.[CHANG Tingting.Study on the characteristics of regional climate change in eastern Tibetan Plateau—Take Ganzi as an example[D].Chengdu:Sichuan Normal University,2016:2-10]
[20] 徐飞,贾仰文,牛存稳,等.横断山区气温和降水年季月变化特征[J].山地学报,2018,36(2):171-183.[XU Fei,JIA Yangwen,NIU Cunwen,et al.Variation character of annual,seasonal and monthly temperature and precipitation [J].Mountain Research,2018,36(2):171-183]
[21] 宋超辉,孙安健.非均一性气温气候序列订正方法的研究[J].高原气象,1995,14(2):215-220.[SONG Chaohui,SUN Anjian.The research on adjusting inhomogeneity temperature series [J].Plateau Meteorology,1995,14(2):215-220]
[22] 符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.[FU Congbin,WANG Qiang.The definition and detection of the abrupt climatic change[J].Scientia Atmospheric Sinica,1992,16(4):482-493]
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