ECMWF高分辨率模式降水预报能力评估与误差分析

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英文篇名：Evaluation and error analysis of precipitation forecast capability of the ECMWF high-resolution model 作者：曹越 ; 赵琳娜 ; 巩远发 ; 许东蓓 ; 高迎娟 英文作者：CAO Yue;ZHAO Linna;GONG Yuanfa;XU Dongbei;GAO Yingjuan;Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information and Technology;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences;Tonghua Meteorological Office of Jilin Province; 关键词：ECMWF高分辨率模式 ; 降水预报 ; 误差分析 ; 集中度 ; R指数 英文关键词：ECMWF high-resolution model;;precipitation forecast;;error analysis;;concentration;;R index 中文刊名：HBQX 英文刊名：Torrential Rain and Disasters 机构：成都信息工程大学高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室;中国气象科学研究院;吉林省通化市气象局; 出版日期：2019-06-15 出版单位：暴雨灾害 年：2019 期：v.38;No.156 基金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502000);; 国家重点基础研究发展计划(2015CB452806);; 国家自然科学基金项目(41475044);; 国家科技支撑计划(2015BAK10B03) 语种：中文; 页：HBQX201903007 页数：10 CN：03 ISSN：42-1771/P 分类号：60-69

摘要

利用2015—2017年6—8月ECMWF高分辨率模式(ECMWF-Hi)的加工产品,结合我国2 400多个国家级气象站逐小时降水观测资料,对ECMWF-Hi产品24 h降水预报的准确度、集中度和相关性进行了评估,并与ECMWF集合预报模式(ECMWF-EPS) 24 h降水预报产品进行比较。为更好地描述预报的集中度,避免单纯用标准差比或平均值比刻画预报集中度的缺陷,建立一个综合标准差和平均值的R指数,用之定量描述模式预报的集中度。结果表明:(1) ECMWF-Hi在均方根误差的检验方面并未表现出优势;而分辨率较低的ECMWF-EPS集合平均预报误差最小。(2) ECMWF-Hi对研究区域降水预报的集中度的整体描述较为准确,离散度与观测较为相似,预报期望也与观测降水的期望最接近,ECMWF-Hi比ECMWF-EPS的集合控制预报与集合平均对观测降水集中度的刻画较为准确。(3)研究区域内各站点R指数分布表明,ECMWF-Hi与ECMWF-EPS控制预报、平均预报相比,对平均值预报不足的站点较多,且这些站点的预报集中度普遍大于观测,ECMWF-Hi的降水预报更接近观测降水。(4)评估应用结果表明,R指数不仅能定性评估模式的集中度,也可定量描述集中度大小。
        Using the 24 h precipitation forecasts products from the ECMWF high-resolution numerical model(ECMWF-Hi) and the ECMWF ensemble model(ECMWF-EPS) and the hourly precipitation observations at more than 2 400 national meteorological stations over China from June to August of 2015 to 2017, we have conducted an evaluation of the accuracy, concentration and correlation of 24 h precipitation forecast products from ECMWF-Hi, and compared them with those from ECMWF-EPS. In addition, in order to overcome the shortcoming of describing the concentration simply by the standard deviation ratio or mean value ratio, we have established the R index which combines standard deviation ratio with mean value ratio, and used it to describe the concentration of forecast quantitatively. Results are as follows.(1)ECMWF-Hi does not show an advantage in the verification of root mean square error(RMSE), while ensemble mean of ECMWF-EPS with low horizontal resolution achieves the lowest RMSE.(2) Generally, the ECMWF-Hi is more accurate in description of concentration of precipitation forecast in the research areas. The dispersion of precipitation forecast is similar to that of the observation. The expectation of precipitation forecast of ECMWF-Hi is also the closest to that of the observation. Compared to the ensemble control forecast of ECMWF-EPS and ensemble mean of ECMWF-EPS, ECMWF-Hi is more accurate in concentration of precipitation.(3) The distribution of the R index at sites over the research area indicated that compared to the ensemble control forecast and the ensemble mean of ECMWF-EPS, ECMWF-Hi has more number of stations with under estimation of precipitation, and the concentration of those stations is generally higher than that of the observation.The precipitation forecast of ECMWF-Hi is closer to the observed precipitation.(4) The evaluation results show that the R index can not only evaluate the concentration of the forecasting of precipitation of model qualitatively, but also can describe the concentration quantitatively.

引文

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