Climatic suitability and spatial distribution for summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming
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摘要
Evaluating climatic suitability of crop cultivation lays a foundation for agriculture coping with climate change scientifically. Herein, we analyse changes in the climatically suitable distribution of summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 °C(GW1.5) and 2.0 °C(GW2.0) global warming in the future according to the temperature control targets set by the Paris Agreement. Compared with the reference period(1971–2000), the summer maize cultivation climatically suitable region(CSR) in China mainly shifts eastwards,and its acreage significantly decreases at both GW1.5 and GW2.0. Despite no dramatic changes in the CSR spatial pattern, there are considerable decreases in the acreages of optimum and suitable regions(the core of the main producing region), indicating that half-a-degree more global warming is unfavourable for summer maize production in China's main producing region. When the global warming threshold increases from GW1.5 to GW2.0, the centres-of-gravity of optimum areas shift northeastward under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the centres-of-gravity of both suitable and less suitable areas shift northwestward,though the northward trend is more prominent for the less suitable areas, and the centre-of-gravity of unsuitable areas shifts southeastward. Generally, half-a-degree more global warming drives the cultivable areas of summer maize to shift northward in China, while the west region shows a certain potential for expansion of summer maize cultivation.
Evaluating climatic suitability of crop cultivation lays a foundation for agriculture coping with climate change scientifically. Herein, we analyse changes in the climatically suitable distribution of summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 °C(GW1.5) and 2.0 °C(GW2.0) global warming in the future according to the temperature control targets set by the Paris Agreement. Compared with the reference period(1971–2000), the summer maize cultivation climatically suitable region(CSR) in China mainly shifts eastwards,and its acreage significantly decreases at both GW1.5 and GW2.0. Despite no dramatic changes in the CSR spatial pattern, there are considerable decreases in the acreages of optimum and suitable regions(the core of the main producing region), indicating that half-a-degree more global warming is unfavourable for summer maize production in China's main producing region. When the global warming threshold increases from GW1.5 to GW2.0, the centres-of-gravity of optimum areas shift northeastward under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the centres-of-gravity of both suitable and less suitable areas shift northwestward,though the northward trend is more prominent for the less suitable areas, and the centre-of-gravity of unsuitable areas shifts southeastward. Generally, half-a-degree more global warming drives the cultivable areas of summer maize to shift northward in China, while the west region shows a certain potential for expansion of summer maize cultivation.
Evaluating climatic suitability of crop cultivation lays a foundation for agriculture coping with climate change scientifically. Herein, we analyse changes in the climatically suitable distribution of summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 °C(GW1.5) and 2.0 °C(GW2.0) global warming in the future according to the temperature control targets set by the Paris Agreement. Compared with the reference period(1971–2000), the summer maize cultivation climatically suitable region(CSR) in China mainly shifts eastwards,and its acreage significantly decreases at both GW1.5 and GW2.0. Despite no dramatic changes in the CSR spatial pattern, there are considerable decreases in the acreages of optimum and suitable regions(the core of the main producing region), indicating that half-a-degree more global warming is unfavourable for summer maize production in China's main producing region. When the global warming threshold increases from GW1.5 to GW2.0, the centres-of-gravity of optimum areas shift northeastward under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the centres-of-gravity of both suitable and less suitable areas shift northwestward,though the northward trend is more prominent for the less suitable areas, and the centre-of-gravity of unsuitable areas shifts southeastward. Generally, half-a-degree more global warming drives the cultivable areas of summer maize to shift northward in China, while the west region shows a certain potential for expansion of summer maize cultivation.
引文
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[2]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change WG Ⅱ.The contribution to the IPCC’s fifth assessment report(WGII AR5).Cambridge:Cambridge University Press;2014.
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[14]Fu Y,Lu R,Guo D.Changes in surface air temperature over China under the 1.5and 2.0°C global warming targets.Adv Clim Change Res 2018;9:112-9.
[15]Liang X,Sui Y.Changes in mean and extreme climates over China with a 2°Cglobal warming.Chin Sci Bull 2013;58:734-42.
[16]Granderson AA.Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level:a cultural-political lens.Clim Risk Manage 2014;3:55-64.
[17]Planting Industry Management Department,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People’s Republic of China;2018(http://202.127.42.157/moazzys/nongqing.aspx).
[18]Zhou G,Guo J,Huo Z,et al.Agriculture addressing to climate change in China.Beijing:Meteorological Press;2014.
[19]Zhao J,Yang X.Average amount and stability of available agro-climate resources in the main maize cropping regions in China during 1981-2010.JMeteorol Res 2018;32:146-56.
[20]Xu Y,Guo J,Zhao J,et al.Scenario analysis on the adaptation of different maize varieties to future climate change in Northeast China.J Meteorol Res2014;28:469-80.
[21]Babel M,Turyatunga E.Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for maize cultivation in the western Uganda agro-ecological zone.Theor Appl Climatol 2015;119:239-54.
[22]Tesfaye K,Zaidi P,Gbegbelegbe S,et al.Climate change impacts and potential benefits of heat-tolerant maize in South Asia.Theor Appl Climatol2017;130:959-70.
[23]Tao F,Zhang Z.Impacts of climate change as a function of global mean temperature maize productivity and water use in China.Clim Change2011;105:409-32.
[24]He Q,Zhou G.Climatic suitability of potential summer maize planting zones.Acta Geogr Sin 2011;66:1443-50.
[25]Liu Y,Chen P,Zhang W,et al.A spatial interpolation method for surface air temperature and its error analysis.Chin J Atmos Sci 2006;30:146-52.
[26]Thornton PE,Running SW,White MA.Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain.J Hydrol1997;190:214-51.
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[29]Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Schapire RE.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Ecol Model 2006;190:231-59.
[30]Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,DudkíM,et al.Opening the black box:an open-source release of Maxent.Ecography 2017;40:887-93.
[31]Peterson AT,Papes?M,Eaton M.Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling:a comparison of GARP and Maxent.Ecography2007;30:550-60.
[32]Giovanelli JGR,Haddad CFB,Alexandrino J.Predicting the potential distribution of the alien invasive American bullfrog(Lithobates catesbeianus)in Brazil.Biol Invasions 2008;10:585-90.
[33]Saatchi S,Buermann W,Ter Steege H,et al.Modeling distribution of Amazonian tree species and diversity using remote sensing measurements.Remote Sens Environ 2008;112:2000-17.
[34]Elith J,Phillips SJ,Hastie T,et al.A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists.Divers Distrib 2011;17:43-57.
[35]Duan J,Zhou G.Potential distribution of rice in China and its climate characteristics.Acta Ecol Sin 2011;31:6659-68.
[36]Sun J,Zhou G,Sui X.Climatic suitability of the distribution of the winter wheat cultivation zone in China.Eur J Agron 2012;43:77-86.
[37]Yue T,Fan Z,Liu J.Changes of major terrestrial ecosystems in China since 1960.Glob Planet Change 2005;48:287-302.
[38]Wang J,Liu Y.The changes of grain output center of gravity and its driving forces in China since 1990.Resour Sci 2009;31:1188-94.
[39]Woodward FI.Climate and plant distribution.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press;1987.
[40]Sui Y,Lang X,Jiang D.Temperature and precipitation signals over China with a2°C global warming.Clim Res 2015;64:227-42.
[41]Tian D,Dong W,Zhang H,et al.Future changes in coverage of 1.5°C and 2°Cwarming thresholds.Sci Bull 2017;62:1455-63.
[42]Taylor KE,Stouffer RJ,Meehl GA.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design.Bull Am Meteor Soc 2012;93:485-98.
[43]Mitchell D,Achutarao K,Allen M,et al.Half a degree additional warming,prognosis and projected impacts(HAPPI):background and experimental design.Geosci Model Dev 2017;10:571-83.
[44]Wehner M,Stone D,Mitchell D,et al.Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble.Earth Syst Dyn 2018;9:299-311.
[2]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change WG Ⅱ.The contribution to the IPCC’s fifth assessment report(WGII AR5).Cambridge:Cambridge University Press;2014.
[3]Lesk C,Rowhani P,Ramankutty N.Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production.Nature 2016;529:84-7.
[4]Guiot J,Cramer W.Climate change:the 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems.Science 2016;354:465-8.
[5]Pecl GT,Araujo MB,Bell JD,et al.Biodiversity redistribution under climate change:impacts on ecosystems and human well-being.Science2017;355:1389-99.
[6]Committee of‘‘China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change”.China’s national assessment report on climate change.Beijing:Science Press;2007.
[7]Committee of‘‘China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change”.The second national assessment report on climate change.Beijing:Science Press;2011.
[8]He Q,Zhou G.The climatic suitability for maize cultivation in China.Chin Sci Bull 2012;57:395-403.
[9]He Q,Zhou G.Climate-associated distribution of summer maize in China from1961 to 2010.Agric Ecosyst Environ 2016;232:326-35.
[10]Jiao M,Zhou G,Chen Z.Blue book of agriculture for addressing climate change:assessment report of climatic change impacts on agriculture in China(No.1).Beijing:Social Sciences Academic Press(China);2014.
[11]Jiao M,Zhou G,Zhang Z.Blue book of agriculture for addressing climate change:assessment report of agrometeorological disasters and yield losses in China(No.2).Beijing:Social Sciences Academic Press(China);2017.
[12]Zhou T,Ren L,Liu H,et al.Impact of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming on aircraft takeoff performance in China.Sci Bull 2018;63:700-7.
[13]Li H,Chen H,Wang H,et al.Future precipitation changes over China under1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming targets by using CORDEX regional climate models.Sci Total Environ 2018;640:543-54.
[14]Fu Y,Lu R,Guo D.Changes in surface air temperature over China under the 1.5and 2.0°C global warming targets.Adv Clim Change Res 2018;9:112-9.
[15]Liang X,Sui Y.Changes in mean and extreme climates over China with a 2°Cglobal warming.Chin Sci Bull 2013;58:734-42.
[16]Granderson AA.Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level:a cultural-political lens.Clim Risk Manage 2014;3:55-64.
[17]Planting Industry Management Department,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People’s Republic of China;2018(http://202.127.42.157/moazzys/nongqing.aspx).
[18]Zhou G,Guo J,Huo Z,et al.Agriculture addressing to climate change in China.Beijing:Meteorological Press;2014.
[19]Zhao J,Yang X.Average amount and stability of available agro-climate resources in the main maize cropping regions in China during 1981-2010.JMeteorol Res 2018;32:146-56.
[20]Xu Y,Guo J,Zhao J,et al.Scenario analysis on the adaptation of different maize varieties to future climate change in Northeast China.J Meteorol Res2014;28:469-80.
[21]Babel M,Turyatunga E.Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for maize cultivation in the western Uganda agro-ecological zone.Theor Appl Climatol 2015;119:239-54.
[22]Tesfaye K,Zaidi P,Gbegbelegbe S,et al.Climate change impacts and potential benefits of heat-tolerant maize in South Asia.Theor Appl Climatol2017;130:959-70.
[23]Tao F,Zhang Z.Impacts of climate change as a function of global mean temperature maize productivity and water use in China.Clim Change2011;105:409-32.
[24]He Q,Zhou G.Climatic suitability of potential summer maize planting zones.Acta Geogr Sin 2011;66:1443-50.
[25]Liu Y,Chen P,Zhang W,et al.A spatial interpolation method for surface air temperature and its error analysis.Chin J Atmos Sci 2006;30:146-52.
[26]Thornton PE,Running SW,White MA.Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain.J Hydrol1997;190:214-51.
[27]Joshi M,Hawkins E,Sutton R,et al.Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels.Nat Clim Change 2011;1:407-12.
[28]Zhou M,Zhou G,Lv X,et al.CMIP5-based threshold-crossing times of 1.5°Cand 2°C global warming above pre-industrial levels.Clim Change Res2018;14:221-7.
[29]Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Schapire RE.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Ecol Model 2006;190:231-59.
[30]Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,DudkíM,et al.Opening the black box:an open-source release of Maxent.Ecography 2017;40:887-93.
[31]Peterson AT,Papes?M,Eaton M.Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling:a comparison of GARP and Maxent.Ecography2007;30:550-60.
[32]Giovanelli JGR,Haddad CFB,Alexandrino J.Predicting the potential distribution of the alien invasive American bullfrog(Lithobates catesbeianus)in Brazil.Biol Invasions 2008;10:585-90.
[33]Saatchi S,Buermann W,Ter Steege H,et al.Modeling distribution of Amazonian tree species and diversity using remote sensing measurements.Remote Sens Environ 2008;112:2000-17.
[34]Elith J,Phillips SJ,Hastie T,et al.A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists.Divers Distrib 2011;17:43-57.
[35]Duan J,Zhou G.Potential distribution of rice in China and its climate characteristics.Acta Ecol Sin 2011;31:6659-68.
[36]Sun J,Zhou G,Sui X.Climatic suitability of the distribution of the winter wheat cultivation zone in China.Eur J Agron 2012;43:77-86.
[37]Yue T,Fan Z,Liu J.Changes of major terrestrial ecosystems in China since 1960.Glob Planet Change 2005;48:287-302.
[38]Wang J,Liu Y.The changes of grain output center of gravity and its driving forces in China since 1990.Resour Sci 2009;31:1188-94.
[39]Woodward FI.Climate and plant distribution.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press;1987.
[40]Sui Y,Lang X,Jiang D.Temperature and precipitation signals over China with a2°C global warming.Clim Res 2015;64:227-42.
[41]Tian D,Dong W,Zhang H,et al.Future changes in coverage of 1.5°C and 2°Cwarming thresholds.Sci Bull 2017;62:1455-63.
[42]Taylor KE,Stouffer RJ,Meehl GA.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design.Bull Am Meteor Soc 2012;93:485-98.
[43]Mitchell D,Achutarao K,Allen M,et al.Half a degree additional warming,prognosis and projected impacts(HAPPI):background and experimental design.Geosci Model Dev 2017;10:571-83.
[44]Wehner M,Stone D,Mitchell D,et al.Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble.Earth Syst Dyn 2018;9:299-311.
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