耦合MOP与GeoSOS-FLUS模型的县级土地利用结构与布局复合优化
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摘要
在自然资源整合不断加强,土地利用结构日趋复杂的形势下,采用单一土地利用结构优化方式难以有效满足区域土地利用合理规划的需求。综合考虑生态文明、乡村振兴、城乡融合等土地可持续利用目标,构建土地利用结构优化与布局优化的集成体系,对提升规划适用性具有积极作用。选取常州市金坛区为研究区,以经济效益与生态效益为优化目标,设置自然演变、经济优先和生态优先三种发展情景,在通过MOP(多目标规划)模型进行土地利用结构优化的基础上,利用GeoSOS-FLUS模型实现土地利用布局优化。结果表明:通过集成MOP和GeoSOS-FLUS模型,采用"结构+约束+布局+准则"研究模式探索县域单元下的土地利用结构布局优化,对调整土地利用结构,优化土地利用空间布局有一定帮助。从案例分析结果看,城镇工矿用地数量在自然演变和经济效益优先情景下分别增加了39%和95%;林地在生态效益优先情景下增加了40%;农村居民点在三种情景下分别减少33%、66%和66%。在三种发展情景下,空间格局都将面临城镇空间与生态空间两级分化的现象,后期区域发展中应加强城乡土地利用与生态保护协调发展,促进空间布局均衡化。
Faced with the background of natural resources integration and the more complex land use structure, it is difficult to effectively meet the demand for rational land use planning with a single land use structure optimization method. Considering the objectives of sustainable utilization of land use, ecological civilization, rural development, and urban-rural integration,we constructed an integrated system for land use structure and layout optimization, which will play a positive role in improving the applicability of planning. This study first sets three scenarios of natural evolution, economic priority, and ecological priority, and then uses the MOP model(multi-objective planning model) to calculate the optimal land use structure under different scenarios. Finally, it can carry on land use layout optimization based on the GeoSOSFLUS model in 2030, Jintan district, Jiangsu province, China. Results show that, by integrating the MOP and GeoSOS-FLUS models and adopting the "Structure + Constraint + Layout +Criterion" approach to optimize the land use structure and layout in the county, it is conducive to optimize the quantitative land use structure and improve the land use spatial distribution;from the results of the case analysis, the area of industrial and mining land in cities and towns has increased by 39% and 95% under the natural evolution and economic efficiency priority scenarios; the forest land has increased by 40% under the eco-efficiency priority scenario; rural settlements decreased by 33%, 66% and 66%, respectively in the three scenarios. Under the three development scenarios, the spatial pattern will face the two-level differentiation of urban space and ecological space. In the later period of regional development, it is necessary to strengthen the coordinated development of urban and rural land use and ecological protection,and promote a balanced spatial distribution.
Faced with the background of natural resources integration and the more complex land use structure, it is difficult to effectively meet the demand for rational land use planning with a single land use structure optimization method. Considering the objectives of sustainable utilization of land use, ecological civilization, rural development, and urban-rural integration,we constructed an integrated system for land use structure and layout optimization, which will play a positive role in improving the applicability of planning. This study first sets three scenarios of natural evolution, economic priority, and ecological priority, and then uses the MOP model(multi-objective planning model) to calculate the optimal land use structure under different scenarios. Finally, it can carry on land use layout optimization based on the GeoSOSFLUS model in 2030, Jintan district, Jiangsu province, China. Results show that, by integrating the MOP and GeoSOS-FLUS models and adopting the "Structure + Constraint + Layout +Criterion" approach to optimize the land use structure and layout in the county, it is conducive to optimize the quantitative land use structure and improve the land use spatial distribution;from the results of the case analysis, the area of industrial and mining land in cities and towns has increased by 39% and 95% under the natural evolution and economic efficiency priority scenarios; the forest land has increased by 40% under the eco-efficiency priority scenario; rural settlements decreased by 33%, 66% and 66%, respectively in the three scenarios. Under the three development scenarios, the spatial pattern will face the two-level differentiation of urban space and ecological space. In the later period of regional development, it is necessary to strengthen the coordinated development of urban and rural land use and ecological protection,and promote a balanced spatial distribution.
引文
[1]许小亮,李鑫,肖长江,等.基于CLUE-S模型的不同情景下区域土地利用布局优化.生态学报, 2016, 36(17):5401-5410.[XU X L, LI X, XIAO C J, et al. Land use layout optimization under different scenarios by using the CLUE-S model. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016, 36(17):5401-5410.]
[2]龚建周,刘彦随,张灵.广州市土地利用结构优化配置及其潜力.地理学报, 2010, 65(11):1391-1400.[GONG J Z,LIU Y S, ZHANG L. The optimal allocation of land use and its potential appraisal in Guangzhou city. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(11):1391-1400.]
[3]赵丹,李锋,王如松.基于生态绿当量的城市土地利用结构优化:以宁国市为例.生态学报, 2011, 31(20):6242-6250.[ZHAO D, LI F, WANG R S. Optimization of urban land structure based on ecological green equivalent:A case study in Ningguo city, China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2011, 31(20):6242-6250.]
[4]王观湧,张乐,于化龙,等.基于生态安全的土地利用结构优化研究.土壤通报, 2015, 46(6):1321-1327.[WANG G Y,ZHANG L, YU H L, et al. Research on optimization of land use structure in Baoding urban agglomeration based on ecological security. Chinese Journal of Soil Science, 2015, 46(6):1321-1327.]
[5]黄海.基于改进粒子群算法的低碳型土地利用结构优化:以重庆市为例.土壤通报, 2014, 45(2):303-306.[HUANG H. Optimization of low-carbon land use structure based on improved particle swarm optimization algorithm:A case study in Chongqing Municipality. Chinese Journal of Soil Science, 2014, 45(2):303-306.]
[6]赵荣钦,黄贤金,揣小伟.区域土地利用结构的碳效应评估及低碳优化.农业工程学报, 2013, 29(17):220-229.[ZHAO R Q, HUANG X J, CHUAI X W. Carbon effect evaluation and low-carbon optimization of regional land use.Transactions of the CSAE, 2013, 29(17):220-229.]
[7]曾永年,王慧敏.以低碳为目标的海东市土地利用结构优化方案.资源科学, 2015, 37(10):2010-2017.[ZENG Y N,WANG H M. Optimization of land use structure for low-carbon targets in Haidong city, Qinghai Plateau. Resources Science, 2015, 37(10):2010-2017.]
[8] NEWLAND C P, MAIER H R, ZECCHIN A C, et al. Multi-objective optimisation framework for calibration of Cellular Automata land-use models. Environmental Modelling&Software, 2018, 100:175-200.
[9] WANG Q, LIU R, MEN C, et al. Application of genetic algorithm to land use optimization for non-point source pollution control based on CLUE-S and SWAT. Journal of Hydrology, 2018, 560:86-96.
[10] KAIM A, CORD A F, VOLK M. A review of multi-criteria optimization techniques for agricultural land use allocation.Environmental Modelling&Software, 2018, 105:79-93.
[11]张明,朱会义,何书金.典型相关分析在土地利用结构研究中的应用:以环渤海地区为例.地理研究, 2001, 20(6):761-767.[ZHANG M, ZHU H Y, HE S J. An application of canonical correlation analysis to research on land-use patterns:Taking Bohai Rim as an example. Geographical Research, 2001, 20(6):761-767.]
[12]张旸,周成虎,戴锦芳,等.偏最小二乘回归方法在土地利用结构研究中的应用.自然资源学报, 2004, 19(6):804-810.[ZHANG Y, ZHOU C H, DAI J F, et al. An application of partial least-squares regression method to the study of land use patterns. Journal of Natural Resources, 2004, 19(6):804-810.]
[13] STOORVOGEL J J. Linking GIS and models:Structure and operationalization for a Costa Rican case study. Netherlands Journal of Agricultural Science, 1995, 43:19-29.
[14] STOORVOGEL J J. Usted:A methodology for a quantitative analysis of land use scenarios. Netherlands Journal of Agricultural Science, 1995, 43:5-18.
[15] ZHOU M. An interval fuzzy chance-constrained programming model for sustainable urban land-use planning and land use policy analysis. Land Use Policy, 2015, 42:479-491.
[16] LU S, GUAN X, ZHOU M, et al. Land resources allocation strategies in an urban area involving uncertainty:A case study of Suzhou, in the Yangtze River Delta of China. Environmental Management, 2014, 53(5):894-912.
[17]郑荣宝,董玉祥,陈梅英.基于GECM与CA+ANN模型的土地资源优化配置与模拟.自然资源学报, 2012, 27(3):497-509.[ZHENG R B, DONG Y X, CHEN M Y. Simulation on optimized allocation of land resource based on GECM and CA+ANN model. Jouranal of Natural Resources, 2012, 27(3):497-509.]
[18]李鑫,马晓冬,肖长江,等.基于CLUE-S模型的区域土地利用布局优化.经济地理, 2015, 35(1):163-172.[LI X, MA X D, XIAO C J, et al. The regional land use layout optimization based on the CLUE-S model. Economic Geography,2015, 35(1):163-172.]
[19]陈影,张利,何玲,等.基于多模型结合的土地利用结构多情景优化模拟.生态学报, 2016, 36(17):5391-5400.[CHEN Y, ZHANG L, HE L, et al. Multi-scenario simulation of land use structure based on dual combined models. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016, 36(17):5391-5400.]
[20] STEWART T J, JANSSEN R. A multiobjective GIS-based land use planning algorithm. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2014, 46:25-34.
[21]郭小燕,刘学录,王联国.基于混合蛙跳算法的土地利用格局优化.农业工程学报, 2015, 31(24):281-288.[GUO X Y, LIU X L, WANG L G. Land use pattern optimization based on shuffled frog leaping algorithm. Transactions of the CSAE, 2015, 31(24):281-288.]
[22]冉娜,金晓斌,范业婷,等.基于土地利用冲突识别与协调的“三线”划定方法研究:以常州市金坛区为例.资源科学, 2018, 40(2):284-298.[RAN N, JIN X B, FAN Y T, et al."Three Lines"delineation based on land use conflict identification and coordination in Jintan district, Changzhou. Resources Science, 2018, 40(2):284-298.]
[23]冯长春,曹敏政,谢婷婷.不同生态保育尺度下铜陵市土地利用结构优化.地理研究, 2014, 33(12):2217-2227.[FANG C C, CAO M Z, XIE T T. Optimization of land use structure in Tongling city based on different ecological conservation scales. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(12):2217-2227.]
[24] LIU X, LIANG X, LI X, et al. A future land use simulation model(FLUS)for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2017, 168:94-116.
[25]燕守广,张慧,李海东,等.江苏省陆地和生态红线区域生态系统服务价值.生态学报, 2017, 37(13):4511-4518.[YAN S G, ZHANG H, LI H D, et al. Ecosystem service values of the entire land area and ecological redlines in Jiangsu province. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2017, 37(13):4511-4518.]
[26]李鑫,欧名豪,刘建生,等.基于不确定性理论的区域土地利用结构优化.农业工程学报, 2014, 30(4):176-184.[LI X, OU M H, LIU J S, et al. Regional land use structure optimization under uncertain theory. Transactions of the CSAE,2014, 30(4):176-184.]
[27]谢花林,刘曲,姚冠荣,等.基于PSR模型的区域土地利用可持续性水平测度:以鄱阳湖生态经济区为例.资源科学, 2015, 37(3):449-457.[XIE H L, LIU Q, YAO G R, et al. Measuring regional land use sustainability of the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone based on PSR modeling. Resources Science, 2015, 37(3):449-457.]
[28]刘彦随.中国新时代城乡融合与乡村振兴.地理学报, 2018, 73(4):637-650.[LIU Y S. Research on the urban-rural integration and rural revitalization in the new era in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(4):637-650.]
[29] ELVIDGE C D, SUTTON P C, GHOSH T, et al. A global poverty map derived from satellite data. Computers&Geosciences, 2009, 35(8):1652-1660.
[30]柏中强,王卷乐,杨雅萍,等.基于乡镇尺度的中国25省区人口分布特征及影响因素.地理学报, 2015, 70(8):1229-1242.[BAI Z Q, WANG J L, YANG Y P, et al. Characterizing spatial patterns of population distribution at township level across the 25 provinces in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(8):1229-1242.]
[31]王千,金晓斌,周寅康.江苏沿海地区耕地景观生态安全格局变化与驱动机制.生态学报, 2011, 31(20):5903-5909.[WANG Q, JIN X B, ZHOU Y K. Dynamic analysis of coastal region cultivated land landscape ecological security and its driving factors in Jiangsu. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2011, 31(20):5903-5909.]
[2]龚建周,刘彦随,张灵.广州市土地利用结构优化配置及其潜力.地理学报, 2010, 65(11):1391-1400.[GONG J Z,LIU Y S, ZHANG L. The optimal allocation of land use and its potential appraisal in Guangzhou city. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(11):1391-1400.]
[3]赵丹,李锋,王如松.基于生态绿当量的城市土地利用结构优化:以宁国市为例.生态学报, 2011, 31(20):6242-6250.[ZHAO D, LI F, WANG R S. Optimization of urban land structure based on ecological green equivalent:A case study in Ningguo city, China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2011, 31(20):6242-6250.]
[4]王观湧,张乐,于化龙,等.基于生态安全的土地利用结构优化研究.土壤通报, 2015, 46(6):1321-1327.[WANG G Y,ZHANG L, YU H L, et al. Research on optimization of land use structure in Baoding urban agglomeration based on ecological security. Chinese Journal of Soil Science, 2015, 46(6):1321-1327.]
[5]黄海.基于改进粒子群算法的低碳型土地利用结构优化:以重庆市为例.土壤通报, 2014, 45(2):303-306.[HUANG H. Optimization of low-carbon land use structure based on improved particle swarm optimization algorithm:A case study in Chongqing Municipality. Chinese Journal of Soil Science, 2014, 45(2):303-306.]
[6]赵荣钦,黄贤金,揣小伟.区域土地利用结构的碳效应评估及低碳优化.农业工程学报, 2013, 29(17):220-229.[ZHAO R Q, HUANG X J, CHUAI X W. Carbon effect evaluation and low-carbon optimization of regional land use.Transactions of the CSAE, 2013, 29(17):220-229.]
[7]曾永年,王慧敏.以低碳为目标的海东市土地利用结构优化方案.资源科学, 2015, 37(10):2010-2017.[ZENG Y N,WANG H M. Optimization of land use structure for low-carbon targets in Haidong city, Qinghai Plateau. Resources Science, 2015, 37(10):2010-2017.]
[8] NEWLAND C P, MAIER H R, ZECCHIN A C, et al. Multi-objective optimisation framework for calibration of Cellular Automata land-use models. Environmental Modelling&Software, 2018, 100:175-200.
[9] WANG Q, LIU R, MEN C, et al. Application of genetic algorithm to land use optimization for non-point source pollution control based on CLUE-S and SWAT. Journal of Hydrology, 2018, 560:86-96.
[10] KAIM A, CORD A F, VOLK M. A review of multi-criteria optimization techniques for agricultural land use allocation.Environmental Modelling&Software, 2018, 105:79-93.
[11]张明,朱会义,何书金.典型相关分析在土地利用结构研究中的应用:以环渤海地区为例.地理研究, 2001, 20(6):761-767.[ZHANG M, ZHU H Y, HE S J. An application of canonical correlation analysis to research on land-use patterns:Taking Bohai Rim as an example. Geographical Research, 2001, 20(6):761-767.]
[12]张旸,周成虎,戴锦芳,等.偏最小二乘回归方法在土地利用结构研究中的应用.自然资源学报, 2004, 19(6):804-810.[ZHANG Y, ZHOU C H, DAI J F, et al. An application of partial least-squares regression method to the study of land use patterns. Journal of Natural Resources, 2004, 19(6):804-810.]
[13] STOORVOGEL J J. Linking GIS and models:Structure and operationalization for a Costa Rican case study. Netherlands Journal of Agricultural Science, 1995, 43:19-29.
[14] STOORVOGEL J J. Usted:A methodology for a quantitative analysis of land use scenarios. Netherlands Journal of Agricultural Science, 1995, 43:5-18.
[15] ZHOU M. An interval fuzzy chance-constrained programming model for sustainable urban land-use planning and land use policy analysis. Land Use Policy, 2015, 42:479-491.
[16] LU S, GUAN X, ZHOU M, et al. Land resources allocation strategies in an urban area involving uncertainty:A case study of Suzhou, in the Yangtze River Delta of China. Environmental Management, 2014, 53(5):894-912.
[17]郑荣宝,董玉祥,陈梅英.基于GECM与CA+ANN模型的土地资源优化配置与模拟.自然资源学报, 2012, 27(3):497-509.[ZHENG R B, DONG Y X, CHEN M Y. Simulation on optimized allocation of land resource based on GECM and CA+ANN model. Jouranal of Natural Resources, 2012, 27(3):497-509.]
[18]李鑫,马晓冬,肖长江,等.基于CLUE-S模型的区域土地利用布局优化.经济地理, 2015, 35(1):163-172.[LI X, MA X D, XIAO C J, et al. The regional land use layout optimization based on the CLUE-S model. Economic Geography,2015, 35(1):163-172.]
[19]陈影,张利,何玲,等.基于多模型结合的土地利用结构多情景优化模拟.生态学报, 2016, 36(17):5391-5400.[CHEN Y, ZHANG L, HE L, et al. Multi-scenario simulation of land use structure based on dual combined models. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016, 36(17):5391-5400.]
[20] STEWART T J, JANSSEN R. A multiobjective GIS-based land use planning algorithm. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2014, 46:25-34.
[21]郭小燕,刘学录,王联国.基于混合蛙跳算法的土地利用格局优化.农业工程学报, 2015, 31(24):281-288.[GUO X Y, LIU X L, WANG L G. Land use pattern optimization based on shuffled frog leaping algorithm. Transactions of the CSAE, 2015, 31(24):281-288.]
[22]冉娜,金晓斌,范业婷,等.基于土地利用冲突识别与协调的“三线”划定方法研究:以常州市金坛区为例.资源科学, 2018, 40(2):284-298.[RAN N, JIN X B, FAN Y T, et al."Three Lines"delineation based on land use conflict identification and coordination in Jintan district, Changzhou. Resources Science, 2018, 40(2):284-298.]
[23]冯长春,曹敏政,谢婷婷.不同生态保育尺度下铜陵市土地利用结构优化.地理研究, 2014, 33(12):2217-2227.[FANG C C, CAO M Z, XIE T T. Optimization of land use structure in Tongling city based on different ecological conservation scales. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(12):2217-2227.]
[24] LIU X, LIANG X, LI X, et al. A future land use simulation model(FLUS)for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2017, 168:94-116.
[25]燕守广,张慧,李海东,等.江苏省陆地和生态红线区域生态系统服务价值.生态学报, 2017, 37(13):4511-4518.[YAN S G, ZHANG H, LI H D, et al. Ecosystem service values of the entire land area and ecological redlines in Jiangsu province. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2017, 37(13):4511-4518.]
[26]李鑫,欧名豪,刘建生,等.基于不确定性理论的区域土地利用结构优化.农业工程学报, 2014, 30(4):176-184.[LI X, OU M H, LIU J S, et al. Regional land use structure optimization under uncertain theory. Transactions of the CSAE,2014, 30(4):176-184.]
[27]谢花林,刘曲,姚冠荣,等.基于PSR模型的区域土地利用可持续性水平测度:以鄱阳湖生态经济区为例.资源科学, 2015, 37(3):449-457.[XIE H L, LIU Q, YAO G R, et al. Measuring regional land use sustainability of the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone based on PSR modeling. Resources Science, 2015, 37(3):449-457.]
[28]刘彦随.中国新时代城乡融合与乡村振兴.地理学报, 2018, 73(4):637-650.[LIU Y S. Research on the urban-rural integration and rural revitalization in the new era in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(4):637-650.]
[29] ELVIDGE C D, SUTTON P C, GHOSH T, et al. A global poverty map derived from satellite data. Computers&Geosciences, 2009, 35(8):1652-1660.
[30]柏中强,王卷乐,杨雅萍,等.基于乡镇尺度的中国25省区人口分布特征及影响因素.地理学报, 2015, 70(8):1229-1242.[BAI Z Q, WANG J L, YANG Y P, et al. Characterizing spatial patterns of population distribution at township level across the 25 provinces in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(8):1229-1242.]
[31]王千,金晓斌,周寅康.江苏沿海地区耕地景观生态安全格局变化与驱动机制.生态学报, 2011, 31(20):5903-5909.[WANG Q, JIN X B, ZHOU Y K. Dynamic analysis of coastal region cultivated land landscape ecological security and its driving factors in Jiangsu. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2011, 31(20):5903-5909.]
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