全球价值链位置测度理论的回顾和展望
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摘要
一国及其部门在全球价值链中的位置,影响其对价值链的协调和控制力,进而决定其获取价值的能力。近年来,全球价值链位置测度理论和应用受到广泛关注,但这些测度方法及结果与我们常识中理解的产业链位置存在一些差异,相关概念易混淆,需要进一步澄清和反思,为此,本文对这一领域的研究进行了梳理。首先,本文系统地回顾了全球价值链位置的测度方法,重点介绍了Muradov的综合框架和测度思路。其次,辨析了上游度、下游度、生产阶段数和生产长度等相关概念,进一步探讨了基于投入产出模型测度的位置与真实经济中生产链位置的异同,并指出了相关实证研究中使用位置指标的缺陷。最后,对位置测度指标的应用和未来研究进行了展望。
The position of a country and its sectors in the global value chain affects its ability to coordinate and control the value chain, and then determines its ability to acquire value. In recent years, the theory and application of global value chain position have attracted widespread attention. However, there are some differences between these measurement methods, their results and the position of industrial chain as we understand it in common sense. Some concepts are confusing and need further clarification and reflection. This paper systematically reviews, rethinks and prospects the theory of position measurement of global value chain. Firstly, this paper systematically reviews the measurement methods of the position of global value chains, focusing on the comprehensive framework of Muradov(2016). Secondly, the concepts of upstream degree and downstream degree are discriminated, and the similarities and differences between the position measured by input-output model and that of real economic production chain, as well as the paradox of upstream degree and downstream degree are further discussed. Finally, the application and future research of position measurement index are prospected.
The position of a country and its sectors in the global value chain affects its ability to coordinate and control the value chain, and then determines its ability to acquire value. In recent years, the theory and application of global value chain position have attracted widespread attention. However, there are some differences between these measurement methods, their results and the position of industrial chain as we understand it in common sense. Some concepts are confusing and need further clarification and reflection. This paper systematically reviews, rethinks and prospects the theory of position measurement of global value chain. Firstly, this paper systematically reviews the measurement methods of the position of global value chains, focusing on the comprehensive framework of Muradov(2016). Secondly, the concepts of upstream degree and downstream degree are discriminated, and the similarities and differences between the position measured by input-output model and that of real economic production chain, as well as the paradox of upstream degree and downstream degree are further discussed. Finally, the application and future research of position measurement index are prospected.
引文
[1] OECD,WTO,UNCTAD.Implications of Global Value Chains for Trade,Investment,Development and Jobs[R].Report Prepared for the G-20 Leaders Summit,Saint Petersburg(Russian Federation),2013.
[2] Hummels,D.,Ishii,J.,Yi,K.M.The Natural and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2011,54(1):75—96.
[3] Koopman,R.,Wang,Z.,Wei,S.J.Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2014,104(2):459—494.
[4] Wang,Z.,Wei,S.J.,Zhu,K.F.Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels[Z].NBER Working Paper,No.19677,2013.
[5] Johnson,R.C.,Noguera,G.Accounting for Intermediates:Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added[J].Journal of International Economics,2012,86(2):224—236.
[6] 倪红福,夏杰长.中国区域在全球价值链中的作用及其变化[J].财贸经济,2016,(11):87—101.
[7] 倪红福.全球价值链测度理论及应用研究新进展[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2018,(3):115—126.
[8] Fally,T.Production Staging:Measurement and Facts[Z].University of Colorado,2012.
[9] Antras,P.,Chor,D.,Fally,T.,Hillberry,R.Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows[Z].NBER Working Paper,No.17819,2012.
[10] Antras,P.,Chor,D.Organizing the Global Value Chain[J].Econometrica,2013,81(6):2127—2204.
[11] Miller,R.E.,Temurshoev,U.Output Upstreamness and Input Downstreamness of Industies/Countries in World Production[Z].International Regional Science Review Published Online before Print November 5,2015.
[12] Wang,Z.,Wei,S.J.,Yu,X.D.,Zhu,K.F.Characterizing Global Value Chains:Production Length and Upstreamness[Z].NBER Working Paper,No.23261,2017.
[13] 倪红福,龚六堂,夏杰长.生产分割的演进路径及其影响因素——基于生产阶段数的考察[J].管理世界,2016,(4):10—23.
[14] 倪红福.全球价值链中产业“微笑曲线”存在吗?——基于增加值平均传递步长方法[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016,(11):111—126.
[15] 王岚.融入全球价值链对中国制造业国际分工地位的影响[J].统计研究,2014,(5):17—23.
[16] Muradov,K.Structure and Length of Value Chains[EB/OL].https://ssrn.com/abstract=3054155,2016.
[17] Dietzenbacher,E.,Romero,I.R.,Bosma,N.S.Using Average Propagation Lengths to Identify Production Chains in the Andalusian Economy[J].Estudios de Economía Aplicada,2005,(23):405—422.
[18] Inomata,S.A New Measurement for International Fragmentation of the Production Process:An International Input—Output Approach[Z].IDE Discussion Paper,No.175,2008.
[19] Escaith,H.,Inomata,S.Geometry of Global Value Chains in East Asia:The Role of Industrial Networks and Trade Policies [C]//Elms,D.K.,Low,P.Global Value Chains in a Changing World.WTO Secretariat,2013:135—159.
[20] Oosterhaven,J.,Bouwmeester,M.C.The Average Propagation Length Conflicting Macro,Intra-Industry,and Interindustry Conclusions[J].International Regional Science Review,2013,(36):481—491.
[21] Ye,M.,Meng,B.,Wei,S.J.Measuring Smile Curves in Global Value Chains[Z].Discussion Paper 530 Institute of Developing Economies,JETRO,2015.
[22] Antras,P.,Chor,D.On the Measurement of Upstreamness and Downstreamness in Global Value Chains[Z].CEPR Discussion Papers,No.12549,2017.
[23] Johnson,R.C.Measuring Global Value Chains[Z].NBER Working Paper,No.24027,2017.
[24] Bart,L.,Timmer,M.Measuring Bilateral Exports of Value Added:A Unified Framework[Z].NBER Chapters,The Challenges of Globalization in the Measurement of National Accounts National Bureau of Economic Research,2018.
[25] Koopman,R.,Powers,W.,Wang,Z.,Wei,S.J.Give Credit Where Credit Is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains[Z].NBER Working Paper,2010.
[26] Caliendo,L.,Parro,F.Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA[J].Review of Economics Studies,2015,82(1):1—44.
[27] 刘维刚,倪红福,夏杰长.生产分割对企业生产率的影响[J].世界经济,2017,(8):31—54.
[28] 王恕立,吴楚豪.“一带一路”倡议下中国的国际分工地位——基于价值链视角的投入产出分析[J].财经研究,2018,(8):18—30.
①这里我们对地位和位置作一区别。我们认为:位置是一个中性词汇,表示物理位置。而地位具有一定褒义词,表示某事物在关系网络中的协调和控制能力,具有尊卑和贵贱之分。因此,本文基于投入产出模型测度的位置,不能完全等同国家或部门在全球价值链中的地位。
②倪红福等(2016)对生产阶段数、上游度(下游度)、投入产出中的乘数等指标的一致性进行了论证。
③显然,3国每国2部门模型可以推广到多国多部门的全球投入产出模型框架。
④参见Muradov(2016)的附录A中以递推循环方式把产出分配到目的地的幂级数方法。
⑤把递归的方程写成矩阵形式,通过矩阵运算就可以求出的表达式,再根据分配系数与直接消耗系数之间的关系就可以论证两者之间的等价性。可参考倪红福等(2016)、Miller和Temurshoev(2015)。
⑥我们使用消费是为了便于解释。在实证分析中,我们认为最终使用不仅包括居民和政府消费,而且包括资本形成和存货变化。
⑦更加正式地,snake是一个产业链,通过适当的排列,它可以在中间产品使用矩阵中用交易值为正、其余值为零的单个非主对角线表示。
[2] Hummels,D.,Ishii,J.,Yi,K.M.The Natural and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2011,54(1):75—96.
[3] Koopman,R.,Wang,Z.,Wei,S.J.Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2014,104(2):459—494.
[4] Wang,Z.,Wei,S.J.,Zhu,K.F.Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels[Z].NBER Working Paper,No.19677,2013.
[5] Johnson,R.C.,Noguera,G.Accounting for Intermediates:Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added[J].Journal of International Economics,2012,86(2):224—236.
[6] 倪红福,夏杰长.中国区域在全球价值链中的作用及其变化[J].财贸经济,2016,(11):87—101.
[7] 倪红福.全球价值链测度理论及应用研究新进展[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2018,(3):115—126.
[8] Fally,T.Production Staging:Measurement and Facts[Z].University of Colorado,2012.
[9] Antras,P.,Chor,D.,Fally,T.,Hillberry,R.Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows[Z].NBER Working Paper,No.17819,2012.
[10] Antras,P.,Chor,D.Organizing the Global Value Chain[J].Econometrica,2013,81(6):2127—2204.
[11] Miller,R.E.,Temurshoev,U.Output Upstreamness and Input Downstreamness of Industies/Countries in World Production[Z].International Regional Science Review Published Online before Print November 5,2015.
[12] Wang,Z.,Wei,S.J.,Yu,X.D.,Zhu,K.F.Characterizing Global Value Chains:Production Length and Upstreamness[Z].NBER Working Paper,No.23261,2017.
[13] 倪红福,龚六堂,夏杰长.生产分割的演进路径及其影响因素——基于生产阶段数的考察[J].管理世界,2016,(4):10—23.
[14] 倪红福.全球价值链中产业“微笑曲线”存在吗?——基于增加值平均传递步长方法[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016,(11):111—126.
[15] 王岚.融入全球价值链对中国制造业国际分工地位的影响[J].统计研究,2014,(5):17—23.
[16] Muradov,K.Structure and Length of Value Chains[EB/OL].https://ssrn.com/abstract=3054155,2016.
[17] Dietzenbacher,E.,Romero,I.R.,Bosma,N.S.Using Average Propagation Lengths to Identify Production Chains in the Andalusian Economy[J].Estudios de Economía Aplicada,2005,(23):405—422.
[18] Inomata,S.A New Measurement for International Fragmentation of the Production Process:An International Input—Output Approach[Z].IDE Discussion Paper,No.175,2008.
[19] Escaith,H.,Inomata,S.Geometry of Global Value Chains in East Asia:The Role of Industrial Networks and Trade Policies [C]//Elms,D.K.,Low,P.Global Value Chains in a Changing World.WTO Secretariat,2013:135—159.
[20] Oosterhaven,J.,Bouwmeester,M.C.The Average Propagation Length Conflicting Macro,Intra-Industry,and Interindustry Conclusions[J].International Regional Science Review,2013,(36):481—491.
[21] Ye,M.,Meng,B.,Wei,S.J.Measuring Smile Curves in Global Value Chains[Z].Discussion Paper 530 Institute of Developing Economies,JETRO,2015.
[22] Antras,P.,Chor,D.On the Measurement of Upstreamness and Downstreamness in Global Value Chains[Z].CEPR Discussion Papers,No.12549,2017.
[23] Johnson,R.C.Measuring Global Value Chains[Z].NBER Working Paper,No.24027,2017.
[24] Bart,L.,Timmer,M.Measuring Bilateral Exports of Value Added:A Unified Framework[Z].NBER Chapters,The Challenges of Globalization in the Measurement of National Accounts National Bureau of Economic Research,2018.
[25] Koopman,R.,Powers,W.,Wang,Z.,Wei,S.J.Give Credit Where Credit Is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains[Z].NBER Working Paper,2010.
[26] Caliendo,L.,Parro,F.Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA[J].Review of Economics Studies,2015,82(1):1—44.
[27] 刘维刚,倪红福,夏杰长.生产分割对企业生产率的影响[J].世界经济,2017,(8):31—54.
[28] 王恕立,吴楚豪.“一带一路”倡议下中国的国际分工地位——基于价值链视角的投入产出分析[J].财经研究,2018,(8):18—30.
①这里我们对地位和位置作一区别。我们认为:位置是一个中性词汇,表示物理位置。而地位具有一定褒义词,表示某事物在关系网络中的协调和控制能力,具有尊卑和贵贱之分。因此,本文基于投入产出模型测度的位置,不能完全等同国家或部门在全球价值链中的地位。
②倪红福等(2016)对生产阶段数、上游度(下游度)、投入产出中的乘数等指标的一致性进行了论证。
③显然,3国每国2部门模型可以推广到多国多部门的全球投入产出模型框架。
④参见Muradov(2016)的附录A中以递推循环方式把产出分配到目的地的幂级数方法。
⑤把递归的方程写成矩阵形式,通过矩阵运算就可以求出的表达式,再根据分配系数与直接消耗系数之间的关系就可以论证两者之间的等价性。可参考倪红福等(2016)、Miller和Temurshoev(2015)。
⑥我们使用消费是为了便于解释。在实证分析中,我们认为最终使用不仅包括居民和政府消费,而且包括资本形成和存货变化。
⑦更加正式地,snake是一个产业链,通过适当的排列,它可以在中间产品使用矩阵中用交易值为正、其余值为零的单个非主对角线表示。
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