网络关系与口碑“爆点”识别——基于社会影响理论的实证研究
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摘要
本文从社会影响理论角度分析,认为消费者在社交网络中建立的网络关系是一种典型的社会存在,会激发消费者的自我展示动机,从而发起更多、更负面的在线口碑,成为口碑"爆点"。通过对美国购物点评网站Epinion.com的实证研究发现:(1)当消费者拥有更多网络关系时会触发更强的自我展示动机,从而发起更多在线口碑。(2)负面口碑会被感知为更客观、更有见地,因此更强的印象管理动机会导致"爆点"的口碑效价更低。(3)"爆点"的口碑发起行为受到其朋友圈的形成时间(时间距离——从关系建立的时间点到当前时间点的时间长度)、朋友的影响力(特征向量中心性——粉丝节点的度中心性)的调节作用,朋友圈形成时间越短影响力越大,则其关系对口碑数量和口碑效价产生的影响更强。
In the era of mobile Internet, the positive word of mouth diffusion of enterprises is able to help enterprises establish a good image. On the contrary, the negative word of mouth will demonize enterprises' image and ultimately affect their management and development. Compared with positive word of mouth, the negative one spreads faster and has a much greater impact. The word of mouth diffusion can be divided into two stages: generation and transmission. According to previous studies concerning word of mouth diffusion, nearly all of them focused on those susceptible populations as well as the seed selection strategy of positive word of mouth transmission. However, very few studies are on the identification of those explosive populations who will generate negative word of mouth.Online word of mouth is an important channel for consumers to achieve goals of self presentation and express themselves. Based on social impact theory, this paper finds that network ties are a manifestation of virtual social presence. Under its influence, the self presentation motivations of customers will be activated. Then, more negative online word of mouth will be launched by customers, ultimately forming word of mouth "explosive point". After conducting an empirical study on the US shopping review website--Epinion.com, we found that:(1) When consumers have more network relationships, stronger self presentation opportunities will be triggered, which will in turn prompt them to generate more(volume) online word of mouth.(2) Negative word of mouth will be perceived as more objective and insightful. As a result, stronger impression management motivation will lead to the generation of lower(valence) word of mouth.(3) The generation of word of mouth explosive point will be subjected to the forming time of moments(time distance from the time point in which the relationship has been established) as well as the inf luence of moments(Eigenvectors centrality the degree centrality of friends). All in all, the shorter formation time of moments and its greater influence will have much greater impact on the volume as well as the valence of word of mouth.
In the era of mobile Internet, the positive word of mouth diffusion of enterprises is able to help enterprises establish a good image. On the contrary, the negative word of mouth will demonize enterprises' image and ultimately affect their management and development. Compared with positive word of mouth, the negative one spreads faster and has a much greater impact. The word of mouth diffusion can be divided into two stages: generation and transmission. According to previous studies concerning word of mouth diffusion, nearly all of them focused on those susceptible populations as well as the seed selection strategy of positive word of mouth transmission. However, very few studies are on the identification of those explosive populations who will generate negative word of mouth.Online word of mouth is an important channel for consumers to achieve goals of self presentation and express themselves. Based on social impact theory, this paper finds that network ties are a manifestation of virtual social presence. Under its influence, the self presentation motivations of customers will be activated. Then, more negative online word of mouth will be launched by customers, ultimately forming word of mouth "explosive point". After conducting an empirical study on the US shopping review website--Epinion.com, we found that:(1) When consumers have more network relationships, stronger self presentation opportunities will be triggered, which will in turn prompt them to generate more(volume) online word of mouth.(2) Negative word of mouth will be perceived as more objective and insightful. As a result, stronger impression management motivation will lead to the generation of lower(valence) word of mouth.(3) The generation of word of mouth explosive point will be subjected to the forming time of moments(time distance from the time point in which the relationship has been established) as well as the inf luence of moments(Eigenvectors centrality the degree centrality of friends). All in all, the shorter formation time of moments and its greater influence will have much greater impact on the volume as well as the valence of word of mouth.
引文
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[2]贺凯彬,王锐,张涵.从动态竞争理论的视角看电影口碑对票房的影响.营销科学学报,2016,12(3):1-17.
[3]黄敏学,王峰,谢亭亭.口碑传播研究综述及其在网络环境下的研究初探.管理学报,2010,1(1):138-46.
[4]Jonah,B..Word of Mouth and Interpersonal Communication:AReview and Directions for Future Research.Journal of Consumer Psychology,2014,24(4):586-607.
[5]KramerAdam,D.,Guillory,J.E.,Hancock,J.T..Experimental Evidence of Massive-scale Emotional Contagion through Social Networks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2014,111(24):8788-8790.
[6]阎俊,蒋音波,常亚平.网络口碑动机与口碑行为的关系研究.管理评论,2011,23(11):84-91.
[7]Kozlenkova,I.V.,Palmatier,R.W.,Fang,Er.,Xiao,B.M.,Huang,M.X..Online Relationship Formation.Journal of Marketing,2017,81(3):21-40.
[8]郑春东,韩晴,王寒.网络水军言论如何左右你的购买意愿.南开管理评论,2015,18(1):89-97.
[9]MoeWendy,W.,Schweidel,D.A..Online Product Opinions:Incidence,Evaluation and Evolution.Marketing Science,2011,31(3):372-386.
[10]黄敏学,王琦缘,肖邦明,王殿文.消费咨询网络中意见领袖的演化机制研究--预期线索与网络结构.管理世界,2015,7(2):109-121.
[11]孟园,王洪伟,王伟.网络口碑对产品销量的影响:基于细粒度的情感分析方法.管理评论,2017,29(1):144-154.
[12]殷国鹏.消费者认为怎样的在线评论更有用--社会性因素的影响效应.管理世界,2012,(12):115-124.
[13]SeibertScott,E.,Kraimer,M.L.,LidenRobert,C..A Social Capital Theory of Career Success.Academy of Management Journal,2001,44(2):219-237.
[14]Cheema,A.,KaikatiAndrew,M..The Effect of Need for Uniqueness on Word of Mouth.Journal of Marketing Research,2010,47(3):553-563.
[15]Wang,F.,Huang,M.X.,Shou,Z.G..Business Expansion and Firm Efficiency in the Commercial Banking Industry:Evidence from the U.S.and China.Asia Pacific Journal of Management,2015,32(2):556-573.
[16]Christakis,N.A.,Fowler,J.H..The Spread of Obesity in a Large Social Network over 32 Years.New England Journal of Medicine,2007,357(4):370-379.
[17]Damon,C..The Spread of Behavior in an Online Social Network Experiment.Science,2010,329(5996):1194-1196.
[18]Ma,L.Y.,Sun,B.H.,Kekre,S..The Squeaky Wheel Gets the Grease:An Empirical Analysis of Customer Voice and Firm Intervention on Twitter.Marketing Science,2015,34(5):627-645.
[19]Angelis,M.D.,Bonezzi,A.,Peluso,A.M.,Rucker,D.D.,Costabile,M..On Braggarts and Gossips:A Self-enhancement Account of Word-of-Mouth Generation and Transmission.Journal of Marketing Research,2012,49(4):551-563.
[20]Bin,G.,Konana,P.,Rajagopalan,B.,Chen,H.W.M..Competition among Virtual Communities and User Valuation:The Case of Investing-related Communities.Information Systems Research,2007,18(1):68-85.
[21]Zhu,F.,Zhang,X.Q..Impact of Online Consumer Reviews on Sales:The Moderating Role of Product and Consumer Characteristics.Journal of Marketing,2010,74(2):133-148.
[22]Fowler,J.H.,Christakis,N.A..Dynamic Spread of Happiness in a Large Social Network:Longitudinal Analysis over 20 Years in the Framingham Heart Study.British Medical Journal,2008,337(49):2338-2342.
[23]Berger,J.,Milkman,K.L..What Makes Online Content Viral?Journal of Marketing Research,2012,49(2):192-205.
[24]汪平,孙鲁平,彭璐珞.解析网络口碑的动态交互过程:一个基于网络回帖行为的分层贝叶斯选择模型.南开管理评论,2012,15(2):141-151.
[25]Berger,J.,Schwartz,E.M..What Drives Immediate and Ongoing Word of Mouth?Journal of Marketing Research,2011,48(5):869-880.
[26]Berger,J.,Sorensen,A.T.,Rasmussen,S.J..Positive Effects of Negative Publicity:When Negative Reviews Increase Sales Marketing Science,2010,29(5):815-827.
[27]Chevalier,J.A.,Mayzlin,D..The Effect of Word of Mouth on Sales:Online Book Reviews.Journal of Marketing Research,2006,43(3):345-354.
[28]Wilcox,K.,Stephen,A.T..Are Close Friends the Enemy?Online Social Networks,Self-esteem,and Self-control.Journal of Consumer Research,2012,40(1):90-103.
[29]郝媛媛,叶强,李一军.基于影评数据的在线评论有用性影响因素研究.管理科学学报,2010,13(8):78-88.
[30]Ludwig,S.T.,Ruyter,D..More Than Words:The Influence of Affective Content and Linguistic Style Matches in Online Reviews on Conversion Rates.Journal of Marketing,2013,77(1):87-103.
[31]Tang,T.,Fang,E.,Feng,W..Is Neutral Really Neutral?The Effects of Neutral User-generated Content on Product Sales.Journal of Marketing,2014,78(4):41-58.
[32]He,S.X.,Bond,S.D..Why Is the Crowd Divided?Attribution for Dispersion in Online Word of Mouth.Journal of Consumer Research,2015,41(6):1509-1527.
[33]卢向华,冯越.网络口碑的价值--基于在线餐馆点评的实证研究.管理世界,2009,(7):126-132.
[34]Muchnik,L.,Aral,S.,Taylor,S.J..Social Influence Bias:ARandomized Experiment.Science,2013,341(6146):647-651.
[35]Hu,N.,Paul,P.,Zhang,J..Can Online Reviews Reveal a Product`s True Quality?Empirical Findings and Analytical Modeling of Online Word-of-Mouth Communication.Proceedings of the 7th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce ACM,2006:323-334.
[36]Toubia,O.,Stephen,A.T..Intrinsic vs.Image-related Utility in Social Media:Why Do People Contribute Content to Twitter?Marketing Science,2013,32(3):368-380.
[37]Anderson,E.W..Customer Satisfaction and Word of Mouth.Journal of Service Research,2007,1(1):5-17.
[38]Liu,Y..Word of Mouth for Movies:Its Dynamics and Impact on Box Office Revenue.Journal of Marketing,2006,70(3):74-89.
[39]Xiao,B.M.,Huang,M.X..Network Closure among Sellers and Buyers in Social Commerce Community.Electronic Commerce Research and Applications,2015,14(6):641-653.
[40]Petter,H.,Jari,S..Temporal Networks.Physics Reports,2012,519(3):97-115.
[41]Aral,S.,Walker,D..Identifying Influential and Susceptible Members of Social Networks.Science,2012,337(6092):488-490.
[42]史伟,王洪伟,何绍义.网络口碑对市场销售分布的影响:基于不同产品评价标准.系统工程理论与实践,2016,36(7):1744-1756.
[43]Amabile,T.M..Brilliant but Cruel:Perceptions of Negative Evaluators.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,1983,19(2):146-156.
[44]Borgatti,S.P.,Mehra,A.,Brass,D.J..Network Analysis in the Social Sciences.Science,2009,323(5916):892-895.
[45]Huang,M.X.,Xiao,B.M.,Sun,P.X..Network Evolution of Transactional Community Based on Network Closure Theory.Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2015,35(5):1165-1187.
[46]宋晓兵,丛竹,董大海.网络口碑对消费者产品态度的影响机理研究.管理学报,2011,8(4):559-566.
[47]Deutsch,M.,Gerard,H.B..A Study of Normative and Informational Social Influences upon Individual Judgment.Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology,1955,51(3):629.
[48]Latane,B..The Psychology of Social Impact.American Psychologist,1981,36(1):343-356.
[49]Bond,R.M.,Fariss,C.J.,Jones,J.J..A 61-Million-Person Experiment in Social Influence and Political Mobilization.Nature,2012,489(7415):295-298.
[50]Luo,X..Quantifying the Long-term Impact of Negative Word of Mouth on Cash Flows and Stock Prices.Marketing Science,2009,28(1):148-165.
[51]左文明,王旭,樊偿.社会化电子商务环境下基于社会资本的网络口碑与购买意愿关系.南开管理评论,2014,17(4):140-150.
[52]张红宇,周庭锐,严欢,唐小飞.网络口碑对消费者在线行为的影响研究.管理世界,2014,(3):178-179.
[53]Chen,Z.,Lurie,N..Temporal Contiguity and Negativity Bias in the Impact of Online Word of Mouth.Journal of Marketing Research,2013,50(4):463-476.
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