鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病监测预警指标体系的研究
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摘要
目的构建科学合理、可操作性强的血吸虫病监测预警指标体系,为促进鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病预警系统的科学化与规范化提供参考依据。方法采用专家咨询法(Delphi method)构建指标体系,结合层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)和改进的比例分配法确定指标权重。通过实证研究对指标体系的信度、效度和权重设置的合理性进行评价。结果鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病监测预警指标体系包括3个一级指标、9个二级指标和35个三级指标。一级指标"疫情现状"、"自然和社会因素"、"防控措施"的归一化权重分别为0. 531 0、0. 101 5和0. 367 5。二级指标中,"人畜感染现状"的组合权重最高(0. 179 5),"社会因素"的组合权重最低(0. 050 6)。实证研究中,总指标体系和一级指标的Cronbachα信度系数及分半信度系数均>0. 90,指标的综合评分与重要程度评分的一致性检验显示Kendall协调系数为0. 742(P=0. 018)。结论监测预警指标体系符合血吸虫病疫情现状,具有良好的信度和效度,权重设置合理。
Objective To establish a scientific,operational monitoring and early warning index system for schistosomiasis,so as to provide scientific evidence for promoting the scientification and standardization of early warning system in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Region. Methods Two rounds of Delphi experts' interviews were applied to construct Index system. The weight value of each indicator was determined by the Analytic Hierarchy process and improvable proportionate allocation method. Reliability,validity of index system and the rationality of index weight distribution can be evaluated in site investigation. Results The Index system included 3 first-order indicators,9 second-order indicators,and 35 third-order indicators. The 3 first-order indicators were endemic status,environmental and social factors,control measures,with the weight value of 0. 531 0,0. 101 5 and 0. 367 5,respectively. For the 9 second-order indicators,the highest weight value was for Infection status of human and livestock( 0. 179 5)and the lowest for social factors( 0. 050 6). During site investigation,the Cronbach's alpha and spit half reliability of the total index system and three first-order indicators were all over 0. 90,the Kendall W coefficient for the data collected in site investigation and Delphi consultation was 0. 742( P = 0. 018). Conclusions The Monitoring and Early Warning Index System for Schistosomiasis is suitable for the infection status of Poyang Lake Eco-economic region. The reliability and validity of index system are satisfactory,and the indicator weight distribution is rational.
Objective To establish a scientific,operational monitoring and early warning index system for schistosomiasis,so as to provide scientific evidence for promoting the scientification and standardization of early warning system in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Region. Methods Two rounds of Delphi experts' interviews were applied to construct Index system. The weight value of each indicator was determined by the Analytic Hierarchy process and improvable proportionate allocation method. Reliability,validity of index system and the rationality of index weight distribution can be evaluated in site investigation. Results The Index system included 3 first-order indicators,9 second-order indicators,and 35 third-order indicators. The 3 first-order indicators were endemic status,environmental and social factors,control measures,with the weight value of 0. 531 0,0. 101 5 and 0. 367 5,respectively. For the 9 second-order indicators,the highest weight value was for Infection status of human and livestock( 0. 179 5)and the lowest for social factors( 0. 050 6). During site investigation,the Cronbach's alpha and spit half reliability of the total index system and three first-order indicators were all over 0. 90,the Kendall W coefficient for the data collected in site investigation and Delphi consultation was 0. 742( P = 0. 018). Conclusions The Monitoring and Early Warning Index System for Schistosomiasis is suitable for the infection status of Poyang Lake Eco-economic region. The reliability and validity of index system are satisfactory,and the indicator weight distribution is rational.
引文
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[8]王亮,李芳,严亚琼,等.运动决策平衡修订量表在中国高血压患者中信度、结构效度分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2015,19(8):831-834. DOI:10. 16462/j. cnki. zhjbkz. 2015.08. 019.Wang L,Li F,Yan YQ,et al. Study on reliability and validity of the regular physical activity decision balance revised scale among the patients with hypertension in China[J]. China J Dis Control Prev,2015,19(8):831-834. DOI:10. 16462/j. cnki. zhjbkz.2015. 08. 019.
[9]万丽红,张小培,潘俊豪,等.脑卒中患者健康信念简表的信效度检验[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2017,21(3):303-307.DOI:10. 16462/j. cnki. zhjbkz. 2017. 03. 021.Wan LH,Zhang XP,Pan JH,et al. The reliability and validity of short form health belief model scale for stroke patients[J]. China J Dis Control Prev,2017,21(3):303-307. DOI:10. 16462/j.cnki. zhjbkz. 2017. 03. 021.
[10]黄敬亨.健康教育学[M].上海:上海医科大学出版社,1999:212.Huang JH. Pubilc health preventive medicine[M]. Shanghai:Shanghai Medical University Press,1999:212.
[11]曾光.现代流行病学方法与应用[M].北京:协和医科大学出版社,1999:250-270.Zeng G. Application and methods of modern epidemiology[M].Beijing:Union Medical College Press,1999:250-270.
[12]李珊珊,罗兴建,肖邦忠,等.基于层次分析法的三峡库区血吸虫病预警指标权重的研究[J].热带医学杂志,2010,10(12):1442-1444.Li SS,Luo XJ,Xiao BZ,et al. Study on AHP-based early-warning index system and their corresponding weights of schistosomiasis in the three gorges reservoir areas[J]. J of Trop Med,2010,10(12):1442-1444.
[13]张友,宦华敏,张庆东,等.江苏省沿江血吸虫病传播风险监测预警指标体系研究[J].中国病原生物学杂志,2014,9(8):706-711. DOI:10. 13350/j. cjpb. 140808.Zhang Y,Huan HM,Zhang QD,et al. A study on a system of surveillance and warning indicators to indicate the risk of schistosomiasis transmission in the region along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province[J]. Journal of Pathogen Biology,2014,9(8):706-711. DOI:10. 13350/j. cjpb. 140808.
[14] Yang K,Xu JF,Zhang JF,et al. Establishing and appling a schistosomiasis early warning index(SEWI)in the lower Yangtze River region of Jiangsu Province,China[J]. PLOS ONE,2014,9(4):e94012. DOI:10. 1371/journal. pone. 0094012.
[15]雷正龙,周晓农.消除血吸虫病—我国血吸虫病防治工作的新目标与新任务[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2015,27(1):1-4. DOI:10. 16250/j. 32. 1374. 2015036.Lei ZL,Zhou XN. Eradication of schistosomiasis:a new target and a new task for the national schistosomiasis control porgramme in the People’s Republic of China[J]. Chin J Schisto Control,2015,27(1):1-4. DOI:10. 16250/j. 32. 1374. 2015036.
[2]刘晓忠,陈喆,林丹丹.江西省血吸虫病监测现状及发展思考[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2016,28(2):111-114.DOI:10. 16250/j. 32. 1374. 2015246.Liu XZ,Chen Z,Lin DD. Status and future development of surveillance of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province[J]. Chin J Schisto Control,2016,28(2):111-114. DOI:10. 16250/j. 32. 1374.2015246.
[3]李宜峰,杭春琴,胡飞,等.血防新策略在鄱阳湖区血吸虫病传播控制中的作用[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2017,29(6):689-715. DOI:10. 16250/j. 32. 1374. 2017186.Li YF,Hang CQ,Hu F,et al. Role of new strategy in transmission control of schistosomiasis in Poyang Lake region[J]. Chin J Schisto Control,2017,29(6):689-715. DOI:10. 16250/j. 32.1374. 2017186.
[4]杨坤,李石柱.大数据挖掘技术应用于血吸虫病监测监测预警研究的探讨[J].中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志,2015,33(6):461-465.Yang K,Li SZ. Application of big data mining technology in monitoring and early-warning of schistosomiasis[J]. Chin J Parasitol Parasit Dis Dec,2015,33(6):461-465.
[5]周晓农.我国血吸虫病的监测与预警[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2009,21(5):341-344. DOI:10. 16250/j. 32. 1374.2009. 05. 008.Zhou XN. Surveillance and forecast of schistosomiasis transmission in China[J]. Chin J Schisto Control,2009,21(5):341-344.DOI:10. 16250/j. 32. 1374. 2009. 05. 008.
[6]羊轶驹.绿色医院评价指标体系与综合评价模型研究[D].长沙:中南大学,2014.Yang YJ. Evaluation index system of green hospital and its comprehensive evaluation model[D]. Changsha:Central South University,2014.
[7]夏萍.定点医院医疗保险业务监督评价指标体系的建立及综合评价方法的应用探讨[D].成都:四川大学,2004.Xia P. Establishment of the index system on assessment and supervision of medical insurance of designated hospitals and exploration of the comprehensive assessment method[D]. Chengdu:Sichuan University,2004.
[8]王亮,李芳,严亚琼,等.运动决策平衡修订量表在中国高血压患者中信度、结构效度分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2015,19(8):831-834. DOI:10. 16462/j. cnki. zhjbkz. 2015.08. 019.Wang L,Li F,Yan YQ,et al. Study on reliability and validity of the regular physical activity decision balance revised scale among the patients with hypertension in China[J]. China J Dis Control Prev,2015,19(8):831-834. DOI:10. 16462/j. cnki. zhjbkz.2015. 08. 019.
[9]万丽红,张小培,潘俊豪,等.脑卒中患者健康信念简表的信效度检验[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2017,21(3):303-307.DOI:10. 16462/j. cnki. zhjbkz. 2017. 03. 021.Wan LH,Zhang XP,Pan JH,et al. The reliability and validity of short form health belief model scale for stroke patients[J]. China J Dis Control Prev,2017,21(3):303-307. DOI:10. 16462/j.cnki. zhjbkz. 2017. 03. 021.
[10]黄敬亨.健康教育学[M].上海:上海医科大学出版社,1999:212.Huang JH. Pubilc health preventive medicine[M]. Shanghai:Shanghai Medical University Press,1999:212.
[11]曾光.现代流行病学方法与应用[M].北京:协和医科大学出版社,1999:250-270.Zeng G. Application and methods of modern epidemiology[M].Beijing:Union Medical College Press,1999:250-270.
[12]李珊珊,罗兴建,肖邦忠,等.基于层次分析法的三峡库区血吸虫病预警指标权重的研究[J].热带医学杂志,2010,10(12):1442-1444.Li SS,Luo XJ,Xiao BZ,et al. Study on AHP-based early-warning index system and their corresponding weights of schistosomiasis in the three gorges reservoir areas[J]. J of Trop Med,2010,10(12):1442-1444.
[13]张友,宦华敏,张庆东,等.江苏省沿江血吸虫病传播风险监测预警指标体系研究[J].中国病原生物学杂志,2014,9(8):706-711. DOI:10. 13350/j. cjpb. 140808.Zhang Y,Huan HM,Zhang QD,et al. A study on a system of surveillance and warning indicators to indicate the risk of schistosomiasis transmission in the region along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province[J]. Journal of Pathogen Biology,2014,9(8):706-711. DOI:10. 13350/j. cjpb. 140808.
[14] Yang K,Xu JF,Zhang JF,et al. Establishing and appling a schistosomiasis early warning index(SEWI)in the lower Yangtze River region of Jiangsu Province,China[J]. PLOS ONE,2014,9(4):e94012. DOI:10. 1371/journal. pone. 0094012.
[15]雷正龙,周晓农.消除血吸虫病—我国血吸虫病防治工作的新目标与新任务[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2015,27(1):1-4. DOI:10. 16250/j. 32. 1374. 2015036.Lei ZL,Zhou XN. Eradication of schistosomiasis:a new target and a new task for the national schistosomiasis control porgramme in the People’s Republic of China[J]. Chin J Schisto Control,2015,27(1):1-4. DOI:10. 16250/j. 32. 1374. 2015036.
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