SCS模型在鲁中南低山丘陵区径流估算中的优化及应用评价
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摘要
径流预测是开展水土流失监测和预报的基础,针对不同地区筛选出适宜的径流预测模型,可以为更好地开展流域水土保持工作提供便利。本研究基于SCS模型原理,探讨适合鲁中南低山丘陵区不同土地利用方式预测径流的方法,以药乡小流域2012—2015年观测到的径流、降雨数据为基础,选择该流域内4种土地利用方式(坡耕地、梯田、裸地、草地)的径流小区作为研究对象,以粒子群优化算法(PSO)作为参数优化的方法,对标准SCS模型及其修正模型(MS模型)进行参数率定,并将2016年的实测径流等资料用于模型验证,并基于TOPSIS法建立模型评价体系定量评价不同模型的应用效果。结果表明:1)标准SCS-CN模型在4种土地利用方式中的应用效果均不好,各项评价指标都较大程度偏离; 2)使用1stOpt软件并结合粒子群优化算法对标准SCS及MS模型进行优化,形成的SCS-CNLes模型和MSLes模型,二者参数值均具有一定的有效性,在率定期和验证期内,SCS-CNLes模型及MSLes模型应用结果都较好,各项模型评价指标均高于标准SCS-CN模型; 3)通过建立TOPSIS综合评价体系进行分析,MSLes模型在梯田中的应用效果最佳,模型合格率为100%,NSE值为0. 70,决定系数R~2=0. 77,RMSE=0. 87,可以较好应用于实际径流预测。研究成果可为鲁中南低山丘陵区地表径流预测模型的选择提供技术参考。
[Background]Runoff prediction is the basis of soil and water loss monitoring and prediction,and selecting suitable runoff prediction models for different regions can provide convenience for better soil and water conservation work in the river basin. [Methods] Based on the principle of SCS model,this study discussed the method of forecasting runoff for different land use types in the mid-southern hilly region of Shandong province. This study selected the runoff plots of four land use types( sloping farmland,level terrace,bare land and grassland) in the small watershed as the research object. Based on the data of runoff and rainfall observed in 2012-2015 years in the Yaoxiang small watershed,the initial loss rate and runoff curve number of the standard SCS-CN model and its modified form( MS model) in this area were calibrated by using the particle swarm optimization( PSO),then the optimized parameters were taken into the original model for runoff prediction,and the application results of initial model was compared with the optimized model. The measured runoff and other data in 2016 year were used to verify the models. Then the pass percent of model,the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient( NSE),RMSE and the coefficient of determination( R~2) were selected for evaluation indicators,and the model evaluation system was established based on the principle of TOPSIS method to quantitatively evaluate the application effect of different models. [Results]The application effect of standard SCS-CN model in four land use types was not applicable,and all evaluation indexes were deviated to a greater degree. The particle swarm optimization in 1 stOpt software was used to optimize the standard SCS-CN model and MS model,forming the SCS-CNLesmodel and MSLesmodel,and the initial loss rate and runoff curve number in the optimized model had certain validity. In the model rate period and the model validation period,the application results of SCS-CNLesmodel and MSLesmodel were all fine,and the evaluation indexes of each model were higher than that of standard SCS-CN model. The TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation system was established for analysis. The result showed that the application effect of the MSLesmodel in the level terrace was the best,the qualified rate of the model was 100%,the NSE value was 0. 70,the coefficient of determination was 0. 77,and the RMSE value was 0. 87. And followed by was the SCS-CNLesmodel in the grassland,the qualified rate of the model also was 100%,the NSE value was 0. 53,the coefficient of determination was 0. 83,and the RMSE value was 1. 03.[Conclusions]The results show that MSLesmodel may be applied to forecast the actual runoff to some extent in the level terrace in the mid-southern hilly region of Shandong province,and relevant results can provide theoretical reference for follow-up research of runoff prediction in this area.
[Background]Runoff prediction is the basis of soil and water loss monitoring and prediction,and selecting suitable runoff prediction models for different regions can provide convenience for better soil and water conservation work in the river basin. [Methods] Based on the principle of SCS model,this study discussed the method of forecasting runoff for different land use types in the mid-southern hilly region of Shandong province. This study selected the runoff plots of four land use types( sloping farmland,level terrace,bare land and grassland) in the small watershed as the research object. Based on the data of runoff and rainfall observed in 2012-2015 years in the Yaoxiang small watershed,the initial loss rate and runoff curve number of the standard SCS-CN model and its modified form( MS model) in this area were calibrated by using the particle swarm optimization( PSO),then the optimized parameters were taken into the original model for runoff prediction,and the application results of initial model was compared with the optimized model. The measured runoff and other data in 2016 year were used to verify the models. Then the pass percent of model,the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient( NSE),RMSE and the coefficient of determination( R~2) were selected for evaluation indicators,and the model evaluation system was established based on the principle of TOPSIS method to quantitatively evaluate the application effect of different models. [Results]The application effect of standard SCS-CN model in four land use types was not applicable,and all evaluation indexes were deviated to a greater degree. The particle swarm optimization in 1 stOpt software was used to optimize the standard SCS-CN model and MS model,forming the SCS-CNLesmodel and MSLesmodel,and the initial loss rate and runoff curve number in the optimized model had certain validity. In the model rate period and the model validation period,the application results of SCS-CNLesmodel and MSLesmodel were all fine,and the evaluation indexes of each model were higher than that of standard SCS-CN model. The TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation system was established for analysis. The result showed that the application effect of the MSLesmodel in the level terrace was the best,the qualified rate of the model was 100%,the NSE value was 0. 70,the coefficient of determination was 0. 77,and the RMSE value was 0. 87. And followed by was the SCS-CNLesmodel in the grassland,the qualified rate of the model also was 100%,the NSE value was 0. 53,the coefficient of determination was 0. 83,and the RMSE value was 1. 03.[Conclusions]The results show that MSLesmodel may be applied to forecast the actual runoff to some extent in the level terrace in the mid-southern hilly region of Shandong province,and relevant results can provide theoretical reference for follow-up research of runoff prediction in this area.
引文
[1]刘福臣,方静,黄怀峰.鲁中南低山丘陵区水土流失原因及治理措施[J].水土保持通报,2008,28(4):170.LIU Fuchen,FANG Jing,HUANG Huaifeng.Causes and harnessing measures of soil and water loss in the low foothill area of south central Shandong province[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,28(4):170.
[2]申睿.山东省山丘区缺资料小流域暴雨洪水计算研究[D].济南:山东大学,2016:38.SHEN Rui.Research of storm and flood calculation in small ungauged basins at hilly areas of Shandong province[D].Jinan:Shandong University,2016:38.
[3]VIJI R,PRASANNA P R,ILANGOVAN R.Modified SCS-CN and Green-Ampt methods in surface runoff modelling for the Kundahpallam Watershed,Nilgiris,Western Ghats,India[J].Aquatic Procedia,2015,4:677.
[4]王英,黄明斌.径流曲线法在黄土区小流域地表径流预测中的初步应用[J].中国水土保持科学,2008,6(6):87.WANG Ying,HUANG Mingbin.Application of the SCS-CN method on runoff estimation insmall watershed on Loess Plateau[J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,6(6):87.
[5]王英,黄明斌.径流曲线法模型参数在黄土地区的优化研究[J].水土保持通报,2008,28(1):54.WANG Ying,HUANG Mingbin.Optimizing parameters of SCS-CN method for application on the loess plateau[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,28(1):54.
[6]王红艳,张志强,查同刚,等.径流曲线数(SCS-CN)模型估算黄土高原小流域场降雨径流的改进[J].北京林业大学学报,2016,38(8):71.WANG Hongyan,ZHANG Zhiqiang,CHA Tonggang,et al.Modification of SCS-CN model for estimating event rainfall runoff for small watersheds in the Loess Plateau,China.[J].Journal of Beijing forestry University,2016,38(8):71.
[7]王红艳.采用径流曲线数模型(SCS-CN)估算黄土高原流域地表径流的改进[D].北京:北京林业大学,2016:42.WANG Hongyan.Estimating watersheds runoff by using improved runoff curve number model(SCS-CN)on the Loess Plateau of China[D].Beijing:Beijing Forestry U-niversity,2016:42.
[8]吴志宜,俞志强,朱雪坚,等.SCS模型在不同土地类型地表产流计算中的应用:以余姚地区为例[J].浙江大学学报(理学版),2016,43(2):226.WU Zhiyi,YU Zhiqiang,ZHU Xuejian,et al.Application of SCS model on computing the surface runoff of different land use tapes:A case study on Yuyao,Zhejiang[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Science Edition),2016,43(2):226.
[9]符素华,王红叶,王向亮,等.北京地区径流曲线数模型中的径流曲线数[J].地理研究,2013,32(5):797.FU Suhua,WANG Hongye,WANG Xiangliang,et al.The runoff curve number of SCS-CN method in Beijing[J].Geographical Research,2013,32(5):797.
[10]符素华,王向亮,王红叶,等.SCS-CN径流模型中CN值确定方法研究[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(3):415.FU Suhua,WANG Xiangliang,WANG Hongye,et al.Meathod of determining CN value in the SCS-CN method[J].Arid Land Geography,2012,35(3):415.
[11]张卫,张展羽,杨洁.SCS模型在红壤土坡地降雨径流量估算中的应用[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(5):124.ZHANG Wei,ZHANG Zhanyu,YANG Jie.Application of SCS model to estimate volume of runoff in slope field of red soil[J].Bulletion of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,34(5):124.
[12]AJMAL M,MOON G,AHN J,et al.Investigation of SCS-CN and its inspired modified models for runoff estimation in South Korean watersheds[J].Journal of Hydro-environment Research,2015,9(4):592.
[13]刘家福,蒋卫国,占文凤,等.SCS模型及其研究进展[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(2):120.LIU Jiafu,JIANG Weiguo,ZHAN Wenfeng,et al.Processes of SCS model for hydrological simulation:Areview[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(2):120.
[14]OZDEMIR H,ELBA爦I E.Benchmarking land use change impacts on direct runoff in ungauged urban watersheds[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,Parts A/B/C,2015,79/80/81/82:100.
[15]CHMIELARZ W,ZBOROWSKI M.Analysis of e-banking websites’quality with the application of the TOPSISmethod:A practical study[J].Procedia Computer Science,2018,126:1964.
[16]蒋荣超,刘大维,王登峰.基于熵权TOPSIS方法的整车动力学性能多目标优化[J].机械工程学报,2018,54(2):150.JIANG Rongchao,LIU Dawei,WANG Dengfeng.Multiobjective optimization of vehicle dynamics performance based on entropy weighted TOPSIS method[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2018,54(2):150.
[17]郭晓军,王道杰,庄建琦.SCS模型在干热河谷区坡面产流模拟中的应用[J].中国水土保持科学,2010,8(5):14.GUO Xiaojun,WANG Daojie,ZHUANG Jianqi.Application of SCS model on simulation of the slope-runoff process in dry-hotvalley[J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,8(5):14.
[18]张鹏,张雅莉,王刚,等.基于SCS模型的甘肃南部小流域径流模拟研究[J].人民长江,2013,44(S2):43.ZHANG Peng,ZHANG Yali,WANG Gang,et al.Simulation of small watershed runoff in southern gansu province based on SCS model[J].Yangtze River,2013,44(S2):43.
[19]张兴奇,徐鹏程,顾璟冉.SCS模型在贵州省毕节市石桥小流域坡面产流模拟中的应用[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(3):321.ZHANG Xingqi,XU Pengcheng,GU Jingran.Application of SCS model to simulate runoff in slope field at Shiqiao small watershed in Bijie city of Guizhou province[J].Bulletion of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,37(3):321.
[20]程甜甜,李赛,张兴刚,等.山东药乡小流域降雨径流关系研究[J].水土保持学报,2016,30(2):34.CHENG Tiantian,LI Sai,ZHANG Xinggang,et al.Study on the relationship between rainfall and runoff in Yaoxiang small watershed of Shandong province[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,30(2):34.
[21]黄兆欢,刘阳,张银雪,等.淮河上游流域SCS_CN模型初损取值与CN值确定方法的研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(12):95.HUANG Zhaohuan,LIU Yang,ZHANG Yinxue,et al.Study on the initial loss of SCS-CN model and the determination method of CN value in the upper Huaihe Basin[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2017(12):95.
[22]郭俊,周建中,邹强,等.水文模型参数多目标优化率定及目标函数组合对优化结果的影响[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2011,43(6):58.GUO Jun,ZHOU Jianzhong,ZOU Qiang,et al.Study on multi-objective calibration of hydrological model and effect of objective functions combination on optimization results[J].Journal of Sichuan University(Engineering Science Edition),2011,43(6):58.
[2]申睿.山东省山丘区缺资料小流域暴雨洪水计算研究[D].济南:山东大学,2016:38.SHEN Rui.Research of storm and flood calculation in small ungauged basins at hilly areas of Shandong province[D].Jinan:Shandong University,2016:38.
[3]VIJI R,PRASANNA P R,ILANGOVAN R.Modified SCS-CN and Green-Ampt methods in surface runoff modelling for the Kundahpallam Watershed,Nilgiris,Western Ghats,India[J].Aquatic Procedia,2015,4:677.
[4]王英,黄明斌.径流曲线法在黄土区小流域地表径流预测中的初步应用[J].中国水土保持科学,2008,6(6):87.WANG Ying,HUANG Mingbin.Application of the SCS-CN method on runoff estimation insmall watershed on Loess Plateau[J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,6(6):87.
[5]王英,黄明斌.径流曲线法模型参数在黄土地区的优化研究[J].水土保持通报,2008,28(1):54.WANG Ying,HUANG Mingbin.Optimizing parameters of SCS-CN method for application on the loess plateau[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,28(1):54.
[6]王红艳,张志强,查同刚,等.径流曲线数(SCS-CN)模型估算黄土高原小流域场降雨径流的改进[J].北京林业大学学报,2016,38(8):71.WANG Hongyan,ZHANG Zhiqiang,CHA Tonggang,et al.Modification of SCS-CN model for estimating event rainfall runoff for small watersheds in the Loess Plateau,China.[J].Journal of Beijing forestry University,2016,38(8):71.
[7]王红艳.采用径流曲线数模型(SCS-CN)估算黄土高原流域地表径流的改进[D].北京:北京林业大学,2016:42.WANG Hongyan.Estimating watersheds runoff by using improved runoff curve number model(SCS-CN)on the Loess Plateau of China[D].Beijing:Beijing Forestry U-niversity,2016:42.
[8]吴志宜,俞志强,朱雪坚,等.SCS模型在不同土地类型地表产流计算中的应用:以余姚地区为例[J].浙江大学学报(理学版),2016,43(2):226.WU Zhiyi,YU Zhiqiang,ZHU Xuejian,et al.Application of SCS model on computing the surface runoff of different land use tapes:A case study on Yuyao,Zhejiang[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Science Edition),2016,43(2):226.
[9]符素华,王红叶,王向亮,等.北京地区径流曲线数模型中的径流曲线数[J].地理研究,2013,32(5):797.FU Suhua,WANG Hongye,WANG Xiangliang,et al.The runoff curve number of SCS-CN method in Beijing[J].Geographical Research,2013,32(5):797.
[10]符素华,王向亮,王红叶,等.SCS-CN径流模型中CN值确定方法研究[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(3):415.FU Suhua,WANG Xiangliang,WANG Hongye,et al.Meathod of determining CN value in the SCS-CN method[J].Arid Land Geography,2012,35(3):415.
[11]张卫,张展羽,杨洁.SCS模型在红壤土坡地降雨径流量估算中的应用[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(5):124.ZHANG Wei,ZHANG Zhanyu,YANG Jie.Application of SCS model to estimate volume of runoff in slope field of red soil[J].Bulletion of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,34(5):124.
[12]AJMAL M,MOON G,AHN J,et al.Investigation of SCS-CN and its inspired modified models for runoff estimation in South Korean watersheds[J].Journal of Hydro-environment Research,2015,9(4):592.
[13]刘家福,蒋卫国,占文凤,等.SCS模型及其研究进展[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(2):120.LIU Jiafu,JIANG Weiguo,ZHAN Wenfeng,et al.Processes of SCS model for hydrological simulation:Areview[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(2):120.
[14]OZDEMIR H,ELBA爦I E.Benchmarking land use change impacts on direct runoff in ungauged urban watersheds[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,Parts A/B/C,2015,79/80/81/82:100.
[15]CHMIELARZ W,ZBOROWSKI M.Analysis of e-banking websites’quality with the application of the TOPSISmethod:A practical study[J].Procedia Computer Science,2018,126:1964.
[16]蒋荣超,刘大维,王登峰.基于熵权TOPSIS方法的整车动力学性能多目标优化[J].机械工程学报,2018,54(2):150.JIANG Rongchao,LIU Dawei,WANG Dengfeng.Multiobjective optimization of vehicle dynamics performance based on entropy weighted TOPSIS method[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2018,54(2):150.
[17]郭晓军,王道杰,庄建琦.SCS模型在干热河谷区坡面产流模拟中的应用[J].中国水土保持科学,2010,8(5):14.GUO Xiaojun,WANG Daojie,ZHUANG Jianqi.Application of SCS model on simulation of the slope-runoff process in dry-hotvalley[J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,8(5):14.
[18]张鹏,张雅莉,王刚,等.基于SCS模型的甘肃南部小流域径流模拟研究[J].人民长江,2013,44(S2):43.ZHANG Peng,ZHANG Yali,WANG Gang,et al.Simulation of small watershed runoff in southern gansu province based on SCS model[J].Yangtze River,2013,44(S2):43.
[19]张兴奇,徐鹏程,顾璟冉.SCS模型在贵州省毕节市石桥小流域坡面产流模拟中的应用[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(3):321.ZHANG Xingqi,XU Pengcheng,GU Jingran.Application of SCS model to simulate runoff in slope field at Shiqiao small watershed in Bijie city of Guizhou province[J].Bulletion of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,37(3):321.
[20]程甜甜,李赛,张兴刚,等.山东药乡小流域降雨径流关系研究[J].水土保持学报,2016,30(2):34.CHENG Tiantian,LI Sai,ZHANG Xinggang,et al.Study on the relationship between rainfall and runoff in Yaoxiang small watershed of Shandong province[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,30(2):34.
[21]黄兆欢,刘阳,张银雪,等.淮河上游流域SCS_CN模型初损取值与CN值确定方法的研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(12):95.HUANG Zhaohuan,LIU Yang,ZHANG Yinxue,et al.Study on the initial loss of SCS-CN model and the determination method of CN value in the upper Huaihe Basin[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2017(12):95.
[22]郭俊,周建中,邹强,等.水文模型参数多目标优化率定及目标函数组合对优化结果的影响[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2011,43(6):58.GUO Jun,ZHOU Jianzhong,ZOU Qiang,et al.Study on multi-objective calibration of hydrological model and effect of objective functions combination on optimization results[J].Journal of Sichuan University(Engineering Science Edition),2011,43(6):58.
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