Application of Combined Prediction Model in Predicting Total Water Consumption in Ningxia

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英文篇名：Application of Combined Prediction Model in Predicting Total Water Consumption in Ningxia 作者：Yongliang ; WANG ; Jiongli ; CHEN ; Lian ; TANG 英文作者：Yongliang WANG;Jiongli CHEN;Lian TANG;School of Civil Engineering and Hydraulic Engineering,Ningxia University;Engineering Research Center of the Ministry of Education for the Modern Utilization of Modern Agricultural Water Resources in Arid Areas,Ningxia University;Innovation Team of Ministry of Education for Modern Utilization of Modern Agricultural Water Resources in Arid Areas,Ningxia University; 英文关键词：GM (1,1) prediction;;Logistic equation gray predict;;Combined prediction;;Water consumption 中文刊名：AAGR 英文刊名：亚洲农业研究(英文版) 机构：School of Civil Engineering and Hydraulic Engineering,Ningxia University;Engineering Research Center of the Ministry of Education for the Modern Utilization of Modern Agricultural Water Resources in Arid Areas,Ningxia University;Innovation Team of Ministry of Education for Modern Utilization of Modern Agricultural Water Resources in Arid Areas,Ningxia University; 出版日期：2019-03-15 出版单位：Asian Agricultural Research 年：2019 期：v.11 基金：Supported by Ningxia Natural Science Foundation (NZ17032);; Key Research and Development Program of Ningxia (2018BEG03008);; First-rate Discipline (Hydraulic Engineering Discipline) Project of Colleges and Universities in Ningxia (NXYLXK2017A03);; National Natural Science Foundation (51269022) 语种：英文; 页：AAGR201903009 页数：3 CN：03 分类号：49-51

摘要

The gray GM( 1,1) prediction model and Logistic equation gray prediction model were established separately,and then the combined prediction model was established. Taking the water consumption in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from 2006 to 2012 as modeling data,the total water consumption of the whole region of Ningxia in 2018-2020 was analyzed and predicted. The results show that the accuracy of the three prediction models meets the accuracy requirements,but the gray GM( 1,1) and combined prediction models better conform to the actual situation and have better applicability.
        The gray GM( 1,1) prediction model and Logistic equation gray prediction model were established separately,and then the combined prediction model was established. Taking the water consumption in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from 2006 to 2012 as modeling data,the total water consumption of the whole region of Ningxia in 2018-2020 was analyzed and predicted. The results show that the accuracy of the three prediction models meets the accuracy requirements,but the gray GM( 1,1) and combined prediction models better conform to the actual situation and have better applicability.

引文

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