自然灾害下电网运行风险控制策略探讨
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摘要
停电防御框架向自然灾害预警延伸已成为广泛共识。自然灾害演化的时空分布特征及其诱发电网故障的不确定性,迫切需要将基于确定性准则的安全稳定分析向电网运行风险评估拓展,将基于电力系统安全稳定控制技术导则确定性场景的三道防线控制向基于动态故障场景的风险控制延伸。针对自然灾害下电网运行风险如何在线防御的问题,总结了当前自然灾害下电网输电元件故障概率特征及其评估技术以及自然灾害下安全防御的困局与应对现状。分析了包括设备保护在内的电网安全稳定各道防线的风险控制代价特征。提出了适应灾害下概率及损失变化特征的风险控制策略。该策略既可实现预防控制与紧急控制间防御门槛的自动设置,又可获得降低电网实际运行风险的在线预防控制优化措施。
It has become a common consensus that the blackout defense framework has been extended to the early warning of natural disasters. Due to the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of natural disasters' evolution, and fault uncertainty induced by natural disasters, it is urgent to extend the safety and stability analysis of power system based on deterministic criterion to the operation risk assessment, to extend traditional safety and stability control based on deterministic scenarios listed in three-defense-lines to risk control. In this paper, several key technologies in the field of disaster prevention,namely fault probability assessment and its characteristics, power system security defense predicament and its countermeasures, are reviewed firstly. Secondly, the risk control cost characteristics of power system considering three-defense-lines is analyzed. Finally, risk control strategy is discussed, which is adaptive for probability and loss characteristics in natural disasters. With the proposed strategy, it is easy to set contingency and acquire the preventive control optimization measure that effectively reduces the operation risk of power system.
It has become a common consensus that the blackout defense framework has been extended to the early warning of natural disasters. Due to the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of natural disasters' evolution, and fault uncertainty induced by natural disasters, it is urgent to extend the safety and stability analysis of power system based on deterministic criterion to the operation risk assessment, to extend traditional safety and stability control based on deterministic scenarios listed in three-defense-lines to risk control. In this paper, several key technologies in the field of disaster prevention,namely fault probability assessment and its characteristics, power system security defense predicament and its countermeasures, are reviewed firstly. Secondly, the risk control cost characteristics of power system considering three-defense-lines is analyzed. Finally, risk control strategy is discussed, which is adaptive for probability and loss characteristics in natural disasters. With the proposed strategy, it is easy to set contingency and acquire the preventive control optimization measure that effectively reduces the operation risk of power system.
引文
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[2]薛禹胜,吴勇军,谢云云,等.停电防御框架向自然灾害预警的拓展[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(16):18-26.XUE Yusheng,WU Yongjun,XIE Yunyun,et al.Extension of blackout defense scheme to natural disasters earlywarning[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(16):18-26.
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[6]薛禹胜,肖世杰.综合防御高风险的小概率事件:对日本相继天灾引发大停电及核泄漏事件的思考[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(8):1-11.XUE Yusheng,XIAO Shijie.Comprehensively defending high risk events with low probability[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(8):1-11.
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[8]金学成,陈堂龙,邹根华,等.自适应外部环境的电网安全稳定智能防御系统应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,43(23):137-142.JIN Xuecheng,CHEN Tanglong,ZOU Genhua,et al.Application of power grid security and stability intelligent defense system self-adapting the external environment[J].Power System Protection and Control,2015,43(23):137-142.
[9]BILLINTON R,SINGH G.Application of adverse and extreme adverse weather:modeling in transmission and distribution system reliability evaluation[J].IEEProceedings:Generation,Transmission and Distribution,2006,153(1):115-120.
[10]ENGELBRECHT C S,HARTINGS R,LUNDQUIST J.Statistical dimensioning of insulators with respect to polluted conditions[J].IEE Proceedings:Generation,Transmission and Distribution,2004,151(3):321-326.
[11]NATEGHI R,GUIKEMA S D,QUIEING S M.Comparison and validation of statistical methods for predicting power outage durations in the event of hurricanes[J].Risk Analysis,2011,31(12):1897-1906.
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[13]侯慧,尹项根,游大海,等.国外经验对中国电力系统应急减灾机制的启示[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(12):89-93.HOU Hui,YIN Xianggen,YOU Dahai,et al.Apocalypse of overseas experiences on emergency anti-disaster mechanism for China power system[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2008,32(12):89-93.
[14]何迪,章禹,郭创新,等.一种面向风险评估的输电线路故障概率模型[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(7):69-76.HE Di,ZHANG Yu,GUO Chuangxin,et al.Failure probability model of transmission lines for risk assessment[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(7):69-76.
[15]熊小伏,王建,袁峻,等.时空环境相依的电网故障模型及在电网可靠性评估中的应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,43(15):28-35.XIONG Xiaofu,WANG Jian,YUAN Jun,et al.Temporal and spatial environments dependent power grid failure method and its application in power grid reliability assessment[J].Power System Protection and Control,2015,43(15):28-35.
[16]易永亮,熊小伏,徐望圣,等.一种计及地线影响的输电线路可靠性动态评估方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(10):77-84.YI Yongliang,XIONG Xiaofu,XU Wangsheng,et al.Adynamic evaluation method of transmission line reliability considering the effects of ground wire[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(10):77-84.
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[23]李剑,王湘雯,黄正勇,等.超疏水绝缘涂层制备与防冰、防污研究现状[J].电工技术学报,2017,32(16):61-75.LI Jian,WANG Xiangwen,HUANG Zhengyong,et al.Research of preparation,anti-icing and anti-pollution of super hydrophobic insulation coatings[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2017,32(16):61-75.
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