基于贝叶斯网络的城市地下燃气管网动态风险分析
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摘要
为研究城市燃气管网风险的动态性,针对传统风险分析方法的局限性,提出基于贝叶斯网络的燃气管网动态风险分析方法。构建燃气管网失效蝴蝶结模型并将其转化为贝叶斯网络模型;在事故发生状态下更新事件失效概率,识别出关键因素;根据异常事件数据和贝叶斯理论,对基本事件失效概率进行实时动态改变;随之更新管网失效及各后果发生的概率,从而实现管网的动态风险分析。研究结果表明:该方法克服了传统风险分析方法的不足,可动态反映燃气管网失效和事故后果发生概率随时间变化的特征,能够为城市地下燃气管网的风险分析与事故预防提供参考。
In order to study the dynamic characteristic of the risk of urban gas pipeline network,aiming at the limitation of traditional risk analysis methods,a dynamic risk analysis method of gas pipeline network based on the Bayesian network was proposed. A Bow-tie model on the failure of gas pipeline network was established and converted into the Bayesian network model,then the failure probabilities of events were updated in case of accident,and the key factors were identified. According to the data of abnormal events and the Bayesian theory,the real-time and dynamic change of the failure probabilities of basic events was carried out. Subsequently,the probabilities of pipeline network failure and each consequence were updated,thus the dynamic risk analysis of pipeline network was realized. The results showed that the method overcomes the shortcomings of traditional analysis methods,which can reflect the dynamic change characteristics of the probabilities of gas pipeline network failure and accident consequence with time,and provide reference for the risk analysis and accident prevention of urban buried gas pipeline network.
In order to study the dynamic characteristic of the risk of urban gas pipeline network,aiming at the limitation of traditional risk analysis methods,a dynamic risk analysis method of gas pipeline network based on the Bayesian network was proposed. A Bow-tie model on the failure of gas pipeline network was established and converted into the Bayesian network model,then the failure probabilities of events were updated in case of accident,and the key factors were identified. According to the data of abnormal events and the Bayesian theory,the real-time and dynamic change of the failure probabilities of basic events was carried out. Subsequently,the probabilities of pipeline network failure and each consequence were updated,thus the dynamic risk analysis of pipeline network was realized. The results showed that the method overcomes the shortcomings of traditional analysis methods,which can reflect the dynamic change characteristics of the probabilities of gas pipeline network failure and accident consequence with time,and provide reference for the risk analysis and accident prevention of urban buried gas pipeline network.
引文
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[11]YANG Y,KHAN F,THODI P,et al.Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2017,159:214-222.
[12]WANG W,SHEN K,WANG B,et al.Failure probability analysis of the urban buried gas pipelines using Bayesian networks[J].Process Safety&Environmental Protection,2017,111:678-686.
[13]DONG Y,YU D.Estimation of failure probability of oil and gas transmission pipelines by fuzzy fault tree analysis[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2005,18(2):83-88.
[14]孙永庆,李又绿,张峥,等.城市埋地燃气管网失效树的研究[J].天然气工业,2004,24(11):124-126.SUN Yongqing,LI Youlyu,ZHANG Zheng,et al.Fault Tree Analysis for buried gas pipe network in cities[J].Journal of Natural Gas Science&Engineering,2004,24(11):124-126.
[15]王春雪,吕淑然.城市燃气管道泄漏致灾混合概率风险评估研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(12):146-151.WANG Chunxue,LYU Shuran.Mixture probabilistic model based assessment of risk of disaster induced by urban gas pipeline leakage[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(12):146-151.
[16]周代军.城市燃气管网定量风险评价指标体系的研究[D].成都:西南石油大学,2012.
[17]张继旺,马庆春,张来斌.基于FTA-BN模型的城市燃气管道失效风险分析[J].北京石油化工学院学报,2014,22(3):32-36.ZHANG Jiwang,MA Qingchun,ZHANG Laibin.The risk analysis of city gas pipeline failure based on FTA-BN model[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Petro-chemical Technology,2014,22(3):32-36.
[18]SINTEF,NTNU.Offshore and Onshore Reliability Data Handbook[M].Oslo:OREDA Participants,2015.
[2]张宇栋,吕淑然,杨凯.城市管道系统风险分析及闭环管理研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(2):181-187.ZHANG Yudong,LYU Shuran,YANG Kai.Research on risk analysis and closed-loop management of urban pipeline system[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2017,13(2):181-187.
[3]杨凯,吕淑然,张远.城市燃气输配管网耦合风险研究现状及展望[J].灾害学,2016,31(1):162-169.YANG Kai,LYU Shuran,ZHANG Yuan.Research status and prospects of coupled disaster risk for city gas pipeline network[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2016,31(1):162-169.
[4]BAGHERI M,ALAMDARI A,DAVOUDI M.Quantitative risk assessment of sour gas transmission pipelines using CFD[J].Journal of Natural Gas Science&Engineering,2016,31:108-118.
[5]SHAHRIAR A,SADIQ R,TESFAMARIAM S.Risk analysis for oil&gas pipelines:A sustainability assessment approach using fuzzy based bow-tie analysis[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2012,25(3):505-523.
[6]GUO Y,MENG X,MENG T,et al.A novel method of risk assessment based on cloud inference for natural gas pipelines[J].Journal of Natural Gas Science&Engineering,2016,30:421-429.
[7]於孝春,贾朋美,张兴.基于模糊Bow-tie模型的城镇燃气管道泄漏定量风险评价[J].天然气工业,2013,33(7):134-139.YU Xiaochun,JIA Pengmei,ZHANG Xing.Quantitative risk assessment of urban gas pipelines based on the fuzzy bow-tie model[J].Natural Gas Industry,2013,33(7):134-139.
[8]KHAKZAD N,KHANA F.Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2012,104:36-44.
[9]YUAN Z,KHAKZAD N,KHAN F,et al.Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using bayesian networks[J].Risk Analysis,2015,35(2):278-291.
[10]KHAKZAD N,KHAN F,AMYOTTE P.Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network[J].Process Safety&Environmental Protection,2013,91(2):46-53.
[11]YANG Y,KHAN F,THODI P,et al.Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2017,159:214-222.
[12]WANG W,SHEN K,WANG B,et al.Failure probability analysis of the urban buried gas pipelines using Bayesian networks[J].Process Safety&Environmental Protection,2017,111:678-686.
[13]DONG Y,YU D.Estimation of failure probability of oil and gas transmission pipelines by fuzzy fault tree analysis[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2005,18(2):83-88.
[14]孙永庆,李又绿,张峥,等.城市埋地燃气管网失效树的研究[J].天然气工业,2004,24(11):124-126.SUN Yongqing,LI Youlyu,ZHANG Zheng,et al.Fault Tree Analysis for buried gas pipe network in cities[J].Journal of Natural Gas Science&Engineering,2004,24(11):124-126.
[15]王春雪,吕淑然.城市燃气管道泄漏致灾混合概率风险评估研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(12):146-151.WANG Chunxue,LYU Shuran.Mixture probabilistic model based assessment of risk of disaster induced by urban gas pipeline leakage[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(12):146-151.
[16]周代军.城市燃气管网定量风险评价指标体系的研究[D].成都:西南石油大学,2012.
[17]张继旺,马庆春,张来斌.基于FTA-BN模型的城市燃气管道失效风险分析[J].北京石油化工学院学报,2014,22(3):32-36.ZHANG Jiwang,MA Qingchun,ZHANG Laibin.The risk analysis of city gas pipeline failure based on FTA-BN model[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Petro-chemical Technology,2014,22(3):32-36.
[18]SINTEF,NTNU.Offshore and Onshore Reliability Data Handbook[M].Oslo:OREDA Participants,2015.
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