基于洪旱灾害的雅鲁藏布江流域水资源脆弱性时空差异分析
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摘要
水资源脆弱性分析是确立区域水资源问题和调控水安全的重要环节。雅鲁藏布江流域水资源丰富,但时空分布不均,洪旱灾害频发、经济欠发达,导致水资源脆弱性明显。基于1965～2014年的气象月尺度数据,分析流域降水分布特征、确定其干湿分区;采用标准化降水指数认识流域洪旱灾害时空分布状况,并从洪旱灾害及沙漠化、供用水及用水效益、调控能力3个方面构建流域水资源脆弱性指标评价体系,运用熵权法分析时空差异特征。结果表明:(1)流域多年平均降水量458 mm,空间上从西北向东南方向递增,上游日喀则市大部、中游拉萨市和山南地区属于中等干旱区,下游林芝市为湿润区;(2)流域内4区/市均易发生春旱和盛夏洪涝,干旱灾害发生率高于洪涝灾害发生率,拉萨市和林芝市易发生干旱重灾,山南地区易发生洪涝重灾;(3)流域及4区/市在2005～2014年间水资源脆弱性均呈下降趋势,山南地区、林芝市的降幅大于日喀则市、拉萨市;(4)流域水资源脆弱性的主导因子为干旱、洪涝、用水效益、管理能力、地区生产总值。流域水资源脆弱性特征为由洪旱灾害主导、调控能力弱、水资源利用效率低。
It is important to study water resources vulnerability in order to identify water resource problems and regulate water security. Water resources of the Yarlung Zangbo River basin are abundant, but its distribution is uneven, frequently flood and drought disasters and lower social economic development trigger spatial-temporal differences of water resources vulnerability. Based on the monthly meteorological data from 1965 to 2014, the precipitation distribution and the dry-wet partition are analyzed. We analyzed the temporal-spatial distribution of flood and drought disasters with the standardized precipitation index, and subsequently applied the entropy method to examine the temporal-spatial differences of water resources vulnerability, based on the following three parameters of ‘flood and drought disasters and desertification', ‘water supply and benefit', and ‘regulatory capacity'. The results indicate that: 1) annual average precipitation is 458 mm in the basin and increases from northwest to southeast. Most of Rikaze in the upstream region, as well as Lasa and Shannan in midstream region are located in the semi-arid climate zone, while Linzhi in the downstream belongs to the humid climate zone; 2) Spring droughts and midsummer floods usually occur within the basin, and the frequency of floods is lower than that of droughts. Lasa and Linzhi are more prone to experience severe droughts, while Shannan is more vulnerable to floods; 3) Water resources vulnerability in the basin and the four cities/prefectures shows a downward trend from 2005 to 2014, but the reduction in vulnerability is faster in Shannan and Linzhi than in Lasa and Rikaze; 4) The dominant factors influencing water resources vulnerability are floods, droughts, water use efficiency, management capacity, and GDP. In short, water resource vulnerability in this basin is dominated by floods and droughts, weak regulatory capacity and inefficient use of water.
It is important to study water resources vulnerability in order to identify water resource problems and regulate water security. Water resources of the Yarlung Zangbo River basin are abundant, but its distribution is uneven, frequently flood and drought disasters and lower social economic development trigger spatial-temporal differences of water resources vulnerability. Based on the monthly meteorological data from 1965 to 2014, the precipitation distribution and the dry-wet partition are analyzed. We analyzed the temporal-spatial distribution of flood and drought disasters with the standardized precipitation index, and subsequently applied the entropy method to examine the temporal-spatial differences of water resources vulnerability, based on the following three parameters of ‘flood and drought disasters and desertification', ‘water supply and benefit', and ‘regulatory capacity'. The results indicate that: 1) annual average precipitation is 458 mm in the basin and increases from northwest to southeast. Most of Rikaze in the upstream region, as well as Lasa and Shannan in midstream region are located in the semi-arid climate zone, while Linzhi in the downstream belongs to the humid climate zone; 2) Spring droughts and midsummer floods usually occur within the basin, and the frequency of floods is lower than that of droughts. Lasa and Linzhi are more prone to experience severe droughts, while Shannan is more vulnerable to floods; 3) Water resources vulnerability in the basin and the four cities/prefectures shows a downward trend from 2005 to 2014, but the reduction in vulnerability is faster in Shannan and Linzhi than in Lasa and Rikaze; 4) The dominant factors influencing water resources vulnerability are floods, droughts, water use efficiency, management capacity, and GDP. In short, water resource vulnerability in this basin is dominated by floods and droughts, weak regulatory capacity and inefficient use of water.
引文
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[7]SULLIVAN C A.Quantifying water vulnerability:A multidimensional approach[J].Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2011,25(4):627-640.
[8]夏军,雒新萍,曹建廷,等.气候变化对中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响评价[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(1):8-14.XIA J,LUO X P,CAO J T,et al.Impact and assessment of climate change on the water resources vulnerability in the Eastern China Monsoon Region[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2015,11(1):8-14.
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[13]黄友波,郑冬燕,夏军,等.黑河地区水资源脆弱性及其生态问题分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2004,15(1):32-37.HUANG Y B,ZHENG D Y,XIA J,et al.Analysis of water resources vulnerability and ecological problems in Heihe River Basin[J].Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2004,15(1):32-37.
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[18]KHANIKAR L,GOGOI R R,DAS N,et al.Groundwater appraisal of Dhekiajuli,Assam,India:An insight of agricultural suitability and arsenic enrichment[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2017,76(15):530.
[19]NICHOLLS R J,HUTTON C W,LZR A N,et al.Integrated assessment of social and environmental sustainability dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta,Bangladesh[J].Estuarine Coastal&Shelf Science,2016,183.
[20]VARIS O,KUMMU M,SALMIVAARA A.Ten major rivers in monsoon Asia-Pacific:An assessment of vulnerability[J].Applied Geography,2012,32(2):441-454.
[21]MUKAND S B,SHAHRIAR M W.Hydrology,management and rising water vulnerability in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River basin[J].Water International,2011,36(3):340-356.
[22]韩国军,王玉兰,房世波.近50年青藏高原气候变化及其对农牧业的影响[J].资源科学,2011,33(10):1969-1975.HAN G J,WANG Y L,FANG S B.Climate change over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its impacts on local agriculture and animal husbandry in the last 50 years[J].Resources Science,2011,33(10):1969-1975.
[23]游庆龙,康世昌,闫宇平,等.近45年雅鲁藏布江流域极端气候事件趋势分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(5):592-600.YOU Q L,KANG S C,YAN Y P,et al.Trends in daily temperature and precipitation extremes over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin during 1961-2005[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(5):592-600.
[24]黄浠,王中根,桑燕芳,等.雅鲁藏布江流域不同源降水数据质量对比研究[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(3):339-348.HUANG X,WANG Z G,SANG Y F,et al.Precision of data in three precipitation datasets of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin[J].Progress in Geography,2016,35(3):339-348.
[25]杨志刚,卓玛,路红亚,等.1961~2010年西藏雅鲁藏布江流域降水量变化特征及其对径流的影响分析[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(1):166-172.YANG Z G,ZHOU M,LU H Y,et al.Characteristics of precipitation variation and its effects on runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin during 1961-2010[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2014,36(1):166-172.
[26]西藏自治区水利厅.西藏自治区水资源公报[R].西藏自治区:西藏自治区水利厅,2014.Water resources department of Tibet Autonomous Region.Water resources bulletin of Tibet Autonomous Region[R].Tibet Autonomous Region:Water resources department of Tibet Autonomous Region,2014.
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