内蒙古典型草原区流域在不同时间尺度下的径流深动态变化——以锡林河流域为例
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摘要
草原区流域径流变化特征研究对于当地水资源合理开发和利用具有重要的应用价值和指导意义。以锡林河流域为研究区,利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法,分析1968—2015年径流深年代际变化、年际变化、四季变化以及年内变化等多时间尺度变化趋势。趋势分析结果表明:20世纪90年代锡林河流域平均径流深最大,且具较大变幅,其余年代均表现为减少趋势; 1968—2015年间年径流深随时间推移呈显著下降趋势,21世纪以后变化极为明显;各季节总体上呈下降趋势,其中,秋季下降趋势显著,但2005年后该季径流深几乎为零;年内径流深分布不均匀,变化趋势呈"双峰型",分别在4月和8月出现峰值。此外,基于Mann-Kendall突变检验,确定1984、2000年锡林河流域径流深发生突变。锡林河流域径流减少的主要因素为人类活动,其中人口增加、工业以及畜牧业发展等社会经济因素共同影响锡林河流域的径流。研究结果可为锡林河流域水资源优化配置及可持续利用提供科学依据。
[Background] Most of the existing researches focus on large-scale watersheds and humid regions,but there are few studies on runoff changes in arid grassland basins,especially the systematic study of runoff variation laws at different time scales. The study on the characteristics of runoff changes in the basin of the grassland area has important application value and guiding significance for the reasonable development and utilization of local water resources. [Methods] Located in the southeastern part of Inner Mongolia,the Xilin River Basin is a temperate semi-arid continental monsoon climate. It has the characteristics of less precipitation,more evaporation,and larger temperature difference. The measured flow data from 1968-2015 are from Xilinhot Hydrological Station. Mann-Kendall trend test method was used to analyze the decennary,annual,seasonal,and inter-annual trends of runoff depth from 1968-2015 in the Xilin River Basin. The temporal and spatial variations of river runoff at home and abroad were compared to illustrate the differences between grassland-type rivers and large rivers. [Results]1)The average runoff in the 1990 s was the largest with large fluctuation,and that in the rest of years showed a decreasing trend. 2) The annual runoff during 1968-2015 demonstrated a significant decline over time. 3) The seasonal runoff showed a significant downward trend. Among them,the decline rate in the spring and summer was insignificant,while that in the autumn was significant,and the runoff in the autumn was almost zero after 2005. 4) The inter-annual runoff depth distribution was uneven with"bimodal",which peaked in April and August respectively. 5) According to the Mann-Kendall mutation test,a abrupt change of runoff depth in Xilin River Basin occurred in 1984 and 2000. The period from1968-1984 was defined as the base period,and the period from 1985-2000 and 2001-2015 was defined as an abrupt change period. Runoff increased during 1985-2000 by 22. 84% while compared with the baseline period. The runoff during 2001-2015 showed a significant decrease,by 42. 89%compared with the baseline period. [Conclusions]The main factor in the reduction of runoff in the Xilin River Basin is human activities,in which socio-economic factors such as population increases,industry and animal husbandry development affect the runoff of the Xilin River Basin. This study provides scientific basis for the optimal allocation of water resources in the Xilin River Basin. The series of ecological protection measures may reduce the impact of human activities on watershed runoff.
[Background] Most of the existing researches focus on large-scale watersheds and humid regions,but there are few studies on runoff changes in arid grassland basins,especially the systematic study of runoff variation laws at different time scales. The study on the characteristics of runoff changes in the basin of the grassland area has important application value and guiding significance for the reasonable development and utilization of local water resources. [Methods] Located in the southeastern part of Inner Mongolia,the Xilin River Basin is a temperate semi-arid continental monsoon climate. It has the characteristics of less precipitation,more evaporation,and larger temperature difference. The measured flow data from 1968-2015 are from Xilinhot Hydrological Station. Mann-Kendall trend test method was used to analyze the decennary,annual,seasonal,and inter-annual trends of runoff depth from 1968-2015 in the Xilin River Basin. The temporal and spatial variations of river runoff at home and abroad were compared to illustrate the differences between grassland-type rivers and large rivers. [Results]1)The average runoff in the 1990 s was the largest with large fluctuation,and that in the rest of years showed a decreasing trend. 2) The annual runoff during 1968-2015 demonstrated a significant decline over time. 3) The seasonal runoff showed a significant downward trend. Among them,the decline rate in the spring and summer was insignificant,while that in the autumn was significant,and the runoff in the autumn was almost zero after 2005. 4) The inter-annual runoff depth distribution was uneven with"bimodal",which peaked in April and August respectively. 5) According to the Mann-Kendall mutation test,a abrupt change of runoff depth in Xilin River Basin occurred in 1984 and 2000. The period from1968-1984 was defined as the base period,and the period from 1985-2000 and 2001-2015 was defined as an abrupt change period. Runoff increased during 1985-2000 by 22. 84% while compared with the baseline period. The runoff during 2001-2015 showed a significant decrease,by 42. 89%compared with the baseline period. [Conclusions]The main factor in the reduction of runoff in the Xilin River Basin is human activities,in which socio-economic factors such as population increases,industry and animal husbandry development affect the runoff of the Xilin River Basin. This study provides scientific basis for the optimal allocation of water resources in the Xilin River Basin. The series of ecological protection measures may reduce the impact of human activities on watershed runoff.
引文
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[6]梁书民,于智媛.用经验径流系数推算全球径流深度分布场[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(1):1.LIANG Shumin,YU Zhiyuan.Estimation of global runoff depth distribution fields using empirical runoff coefficients[J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(1):1.
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[8]沈楠,李春晖.黄河流域近500多年来径流量演变特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2009,20(5):37.SHEN Nan,LI Chunhui.Characteristics of runoff evolution in the Yellow River Basin in recent 500 years[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2009,20(5):37.
[9]孙鹏,孙玉燕,张强,等.淮河流域径流过程变化时空特征及成因[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(2):497.SUN Peng,SUN Yuyan,ZHANG Qiang,et al.Spatiotemporal characteristics and causes of runoff changes in the Huaihe River Basin[J].Journal of Lakers,2018,30(2):497.
[10]WANG H,CHEN Y,WEIHONG L I,et al.Runoff responses to climate change in arid region of northwestern China during 1960-2010[J].Chinese Geographical Science,2013,23(3):286.
[11]焦玮,朱仲元,宋小园,等.近50年气候和人类活动对锡林河流域径流的影响[J].中国水土保持科学,2015,13(6):12.JIAO Wei,ZHU Zhongyuan,SONG Xiaoyuan,et al.Impacts of climate and human activities on runoff in Xilin River Basin in recent 50 years[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,13(6):12.
[12]杨立哲,钱虹,郝璐.锡林河近50年径流变化特征及其影响因素分析[J].草业科学,2015,32(3):303.YANG Lizhe,QIAN Hong,HAO Lu.Analysis of runoff variation and impact factors in Xilin River in recent 50years[J].Pratacultural Science,2015,32(3):303.
[13]李栋梁,张佳丽,全建瑞,等.黄河上游径流量演变特征及成因研究[J].水科学进展,1998(1):23.LI Dongliang,ZHANG Jiali,QUAN Jianrui,et al.Evolutionary characteristics and causes of runoff in the upper reaches of the Yellow River[J].Advances in Water Science,1998(1):23.
[14]陈忠升.中国西北干旱区河川径流变化及归因定量辨识[D].上海:华东师范大学,2016:58.CHEN Zhongsheng.Quantitative identification of river runoff changes and attribution in arid regions of northwestern China[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University,2016:58.
[15]段超宇.基于SWAT模型的锡林河流域融雪径流模拟研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2014:15.DUAN Chaoyu.Simulation of snowmelt runoff based on SWAT model in Xilin River Basin[D].Hohhot:Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,2014:15.
[16]KENDALL M G.Rank correlation methods[J].British Journal of Psychology,1955,25(1):86.
[17]MANN H B.Nonparametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica,1945,13(3):245.
[18]穆兴民,张秀勤,高鹏,等.双累积曲线方法理论及在水文气象领域应用中应注意的问题[J].水文,2010,30(4):47.MU Xingmin,ZHANG Xiuqin,GAO Peng,et al.The theory of double cumulative curves and the problems that should be paid attention to in the field of hydro-meteorology[J].Hydrology,2010,30(4):47.
[19]宋小园.气候变化和人类活动影响下锡林河流域水文过程响应研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2016:32.SONG Xiaoyuan.Research on hydrological process response of Xilin River Basin under the influence of climate change and human activities[D].Hohhot:Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,2016:32.
[20]焦玮.锡林河流域河川基流对气候变化与人类活动的响应特征研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2016:76.JIAO Wei.A study on the response characteristics of the base flow of the Xilin River Basin to climate change and human activities[D].Hohhot:Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,2016:76.
[21]朱映新.苏州市降雨径流关系及下垫面变化对径流量影响研究[D].南京:河海大学,2007:15.ZHU Yingxin.Study on the relationship between rainfall runoff and the change of underlying surface on runoff in Suzhou[D].Nanjing:Hohai University,2007:15.
[22]呼日乐,乌珠穆.锡盟落实草牧场双权一制技术应用及推广[J].草原与草业,1999(2):16.HU Rile,WU Zhumu.Ximeng implements the application and promotion of dual-power system technology in grassland[J].Grassland and Grass,1999(2):16.
[23]齐振华,杜赞炯.锡林浩特市锡林河流域水保大会战全面展开[J].水土保持通报,1999,19(5):6.QI Zhenhua,DU Zanqi.The battle of the water conservation conference of Xilin River Basin in Xilinhot City[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,1999,19(5):6.
[24]李玉兰,贾国华.锡林河水库水土流失现状及成因分析[J].安徽农学通报,2012,18(21):185.LI Yulan,JIA Guohua.Analysis on the present situation and causes of soil and water loss in Xilinhe reservoir[J].Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin,2012,18(21):185.
[25]姜晔,毕晓丽,黄建辉,等.内蒙古锡林河流域植被退化的格局及驱动力分析[J].植物生态学报,2010,34(10):1132.JIANG Wei,BI Xiaoli,HUANG Jianhui,et al.Analysis of the pattern and driving force of vegetation degradation in Xilin River Basin,Inner Mongolia[J].Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology,2010,34(10):1132.
[26]XUE L,YANG F,YANG C,et al.Sensitivity analysis of the streamflow alteration subjected to climate changes and anthropogenic activities in the Tarim River Basin[J].Journal of Hohai University,2018,46(1):1.
[27]BUTTLE J M.Streamflow response to headwater reforestation in the Ganaraska River basin,southern Ontario,Canada[J].Hydrological Processes,2011,25(19):3030.
[28]XUAN W,GUANGLING H,ZHIFENG Y,et al.Variation analysis of streamflow and ecological flow for the twin rivers of the Miyun Reservoir Basin in northern China from 1963 to 2011[J].Science of the Total Environment,2015(536):739.
[29]YANG D,YE B,KANE D L.Streamflow changes over Siberian Yenisei River Basin[J].Journal of Hydrology,2004,296(1):59.
[2]VASSILEV I,GEORGIEV B N.River runoff changes and recent climatic fluctuations in Bulgaria[J].Geo Journal,1996,40(4):379.
[3]LABAT D,GODD RIS Y,PROBST J L,et al.Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming[J].Advances in Water Resources,2004,27(6):631.
[4]PELTO M S.Impact of climate change on North Cascade Alpine Glaciers,and Alpine runoff[J].Northwest Science,2009,82(1):65.
[5]周旋,郝振纯,李小韵,等.汤旺河流域径流变化研究[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2018,40(1):12.ZHOU Xuan,HAO Zhenchun,LI Xiaoyun,et al.Study on runoff variation in Tangwang River Basin[J].Journal of China Three Gorges University(Natural Sciences),2018,40(1):12.
[6]梁书民,于智媛.用经验径流系数推算全球径流深度分布场[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(1):1.LIANG Shumin,YU Zhiyuan.Estimation of global runoff depth distribution fields using empirical runoff coefficients[J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(1):1.
[7]曹建廷,秦大河,罗勇,等.长江源区1956~2000年径流量变化分析[J].水科学进展,2007(1):29.CAO Jianting,QIN Dahe,LUO Yong,et al.Analysis of runoff changes in the source region of the Yangtze River from 1956 to 2000[J].Advances in Water Science,2007(1):29.
[8]沈楠,李春晖.黄河流域近500多年来径流量演变特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2009,20(5):37.SHEN Nan,LI Chunhui.Characteristics of runoff evolution in the Yellow River Basin in recent 500 years[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2009,20(5):37.
[9]孙鹏,孙玉燕,张强,等.淮河流域径流过程变化时空特征及成因[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(2):497.SUN Peng,SUN Yuyan,ZHANG Qiang,et al.Spatiotemporal characteristics and causes of runoff changes in the Huaihe River Basin[J].Journal of Lakers,2018,30(2):497.
[10]WANG H,CHEN Y,WEIHONG L I,et al.Runoff responses to climate change in arid region of northwestern China during 1960-2010[J].Chinese Geographical Science,2013,23(3):286.
[11]焦玮,朱仲元,宋小园,等.近50年气候和人类活动对锡林河流域径流的影响[J].中国水土保持科学,2015,13(6):12.JIAO Wei,ZHU Zhongyuan,SONG Xiaoyuan,et al.Impacts of climate and human activities on runoff in Xilin River Basin in recent 50 years[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,13(6):12.
[12]杨立哲,钱虹,郝璐.锡林河近50年径流变化特征及其影响因素分析[J].草业科学,2015,32(3):303.YANG Lizhe,QIAN Hong,HAO Lu.Analysis of runoff variation and impact factors in Xilin River in recent 50years[J].Pratacultural Science,2015,32(3):303.
[13]李栋梁,张佳丽,全建瑞,等.黄河上游径流量演变特征及成因研究[J].水科学进展,1998(1):23.LI Dongliang,ZHANG Jiali,QUAN Jianrui,et al.Evolutionary characteristics and causes of runoff in the upper reaches of the Yellow River[J].Advances in Water Science,1998(1):23.
[14]陈忠升.中国西北干旱区河川径流变化及归因定量辨识[D].上海:华东师范大学,2016:58.CHEN Zhongsheng.Quantitative identification of river runoff changes and attribution in arid regions of northwestern China[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University,2016:58.
[15]段超宇.基于SWAT模型的锡林河流域融雪径流模拟研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2014:15.DUAN Chaoyu.Simulation of snowmelt runoff based on SWAT model in Xilin River Basin[D].Hohhot:Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,2014:15.
[16]KENDALL M G.Rank correlation methods[J].British Journal of Psychology,1955,25(1):86.
[17]MANN H B.Nonparametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica,1945,13(3):245.
[18]穆兴民,张秀勤,高鹏,等.双累积曲线方法理论及在水文气象领域应用中应注意的问题[J].水文,2010,30(4):47.MU Xingmin,ZHANG Xiuqin,GAO Peng,et al.The theory of double cumulative curves and the problems that should be paid attention to in the field of hydro-meteorology[J].Hydrology,2010,30(4):47.
[19]宋小园.气候变化和人类活动影响下锡林河流域水文过程响应研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2016:32.SONG Xiaoyuan.Research on hydrological process response of Xilin River Basin under the influence of climate change and human activities[D].Hohhot:Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,2016:32.
[20]焦玮.锡林河流域河川基流对气候变化与人类活动的响应特征研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2016:76.JIAO Wei.A study on the response characteristics of the base flow of the Xilin River Basin to climate change and human activities[D].Hohhot:Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,2016:76.
[21]朱映新.苏州市降雨径流关系及下垫面变化对径流量影响研究[D].南京:河海大学,2007:15.ZHU Yingxin.Study on the relationship between rainfall runoff and the change of underlying surface on runoff in Suzhou[D].Nanjing:Hohai University,2007:15.
[22]呼日乐,乌珠穆.锡盟落实草牧场双权一制技术应用及推广[J].草原与草业,1999(2):16.HU Rile,WU Zhumu.Ximeng implements the application and promotion of dual-power system technology in grassland[J].Grassland and Grass,1999(2):16.
[23]齐振华,杜赞炯.锡林浩特市锡林河流域水保大会战全面展开[J].水土保持通报,1999,19(5):6.QI Zhenhua,DU Zanqi.The battle of the water conservation conference of Xilin River Basin in Xilinhot City[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,1999,19(5):6.
[24]李玉兰,贾国华.锡林河水库水土流失现状及成因分析[J].安徽农学通报,2012,18(21):185.LI Yulan,JIA Guohua.Analysis on the present situation and causes of soil and water loss in Xilinhe reservoir[J].Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin,2012,18(21):185.
[25]姜晔,毕晓丽,黄建辉,等.内蒙古锡林河流域植被退化的格局及驱动力分析[J].植物生态学报,2010,34(10):1132.JIANG Wei,BI Xiaoli,HUANG Jianhui,et al.Analysis of the pattern and driving force of vegetation degradation in Xilin River Basin,Inner Mongolia[J].Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology,2010,34(10):1132.
[26]XUE L,YANG F,YANG C,et al.Sensitivity analysis of the streamflow alteration subjected to climate changes and anthropogenic activities in the Tarim River Basin[J].Journal of Hohai University,2018,46(1):1.
[27]BUTTLE J M.Streamflow response to headwater reforestation in the Ganaraska River basin,southern Ontario,Canada[J].Hydrological Processes,2011,25(19):3030.
[28]XUAN W,GUANGLING H,ZHIFENG Y,et al.Variation analysis of streamflow and ecological flow for the twin rivers of the Miyun Reservoir Basin in northern China from 1963 to 2011[J].Science of the Total Environment,2015(536):739.
[29]YANG D,YE B,KANE D L.Streamflow changes over Siberian Yenisei River Basin[J].Journal of Hydrology,2004,296(1):59.
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