基于工作分解结构-风险分解结构(WBS-RBS)耦合矩阵的海外电力工程投资风险识别与分析
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摘要
"一带一路"倡议为中国企业海外电力投资提供全新的机遇,面对极其复杂的电力工程,海外投资企业面临如何全面系统地识别投资风险的挑战。本文研究借助WBSRBS风险识别耦合矩阵,通过全寿命周期理论对海外电力投资活动进行阶段划分;其次利用风险分解结构进行投资风险的全面系统梳理,对海外电力工程投资风险进行系统化识别,并从项目、市场以及国家三个层级进行风险因素的分类;最后通过词频分析遴选出海外投资关键风险因素,以期能够科学有效地指导海外投资企业进行风险管理。
The "Belt and Road Initiative" provides a new opportunity for Chinese companies to invest in overseas power engineering. In the face of extremely complex power projects, overseas investment companies face the challenge of comprehensively and systematically identifying investment risks. In this paper, the WBS-RBS risk identification coupling matrix is used to divide the overseas power investment activities through the life cycle theory. Secondly, the risk decomposition structure is used to comprehensively sort out the investment risks, and the overseas power engineering investment risks are systematically identified. The risk factors are classified from project, market and country levels.Finally, the key risk factors of overseas investment are selected through word frequency analysis in order to scientifically and effectively guide overseas investment enterprises to conduct risk management.
The "Belt and Road Initiative" provides a new opportunity for Chinese companies to invest in overseas power engineering. In the face of extremely complex power projects, overseas investment companies face the challenge of comprehensively and systematically identifying investment risks. In this paper, the WBS-RBS risk identification coupling matrix is used to divide the overseas power investment activities through the life cycle theory. Secondly, the risk decomposition structure is used to comprehensively sort out the investment risks, and the overseas power engineering investment risks are systematically identified. The risk factors are classified from project, market and country levels.Finally, the key risk factors of overseas investment are selected through word frequency analysis in order to scientifically and effectively guide overseas investment enterprises to conduct risk management.
引文
[1]蔡阔,邵燕敏,何菊香,汪寿阳.对外承包工程对中国对外直接投资的影响--基于分国别面板数据的实证研究[J].管理评论,2013,25(9):21-28.
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[6]LI J,ZOU P X W.Fuzzy AHP-Based Risk Assessment Methodology for PPP Projects[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2011,137(12),1205-1209.
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[13]杨宝臣,陈跃.全寿命期集成化的跨境管道风险管理模式[J].工业工程与管理,2010,15(4):87-92.
[14]任南,韩冰洁,何彦昕.基于WBS-RBS-DSM的项目风险识别与评估[J].系统工程,2014,32(11):96-100.
[15]徐东升,梁永宽,向一莎.项目管理中资源配置的两阶段随机规划模型[J].统计与决策,2014(11):58-61.
[16]白礼彪,白思俊,张以彬.基于阶段耦合的项目组合配置战略贴近度[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(3):93-101.
[17]张文德,刘震.基于WBS-RBS的网络信息采集著作权风险识别研究[J].情报理论与实践,2012,35(2):96-100.
[18]Suleman T,Gupta R,Balcilar M.Does Country Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility?Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach[J].Research in International Business and Finance,2017,42:1173-1195.
[19]Lee Chi-Chuan,Lee Chien-Chiang,Ning S L.Dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks[J].Energy Economics,2017,66:571-581.
[20]刘畅,陈建明,孙晓蕾.“一带一路”沿线资源国国家风险与出口潜力区位选择[J].中国能源,2016,(3):19-24.
[21]蔡子嘉.海外电力总承包工程的风险评估及对策[D].北京:对外经济贸易大学,2016.
[22]高杨.海外发电运营项目风险分析与风险管控研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2016.
[23]LIU C,SUN X,CHEN J,et al.Statistical Properties of Country Risk Ratings under Oil Price Volatility:Evidence from Selected Oil-Exporting Countries[J].Energy Policy,2016,92:234-245.
[24]ILOIE R E.Connections between FDI,Corruption Index and Country Risk Assessments in Central and Eastern Europe[J].Procedia Economics and Finance,2015,32:626-633.
[25]BROWN C L,CAVUSGIL S T,LORD A W.Country-Risk Measurement and Analysis:A New Conceptualization and Managerial Tool[J].International Business Review,2015,24(2):246-265.
[26]仲谋,郭周明.中国企业海外施工的项目风险识别--以中铁建麦加项目为例[J].国际经济合作,2014(5):91-95.
[27]GLOVA J.Country Risk in the CESEE Countries:A Fundamental Beta Approach[J].Procedia Economics and Finance,2014,15:100-107.
[28]孙晓蕾,姚晓阳,杨玉英,吴登生,李建平.国家风险动态性的多尺度特征提取与识别:以OPEC国家为例[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(4):1-10.
[29]隗京兰,李付栋,刘健哲.海外BOT项目的风险管理--老挝水电市场BOT项目的风险分析及防范措施[J].国际经济合作,2013,(1):58-60.
[30]丁浩,张书通.海外石油工程项目风险评价--基于粗糙集理论和突变理论[J].科技进步与对策,2013,30(23):60-63.
[2]李一文.我国海外投资风险预警研究[J].管理世界,2016(9):178-179.
[3]保建云.论我国“一带一路”海外投资的全球金融影响、市场约束及“敌意风险”治理[J].中国软科学,2017(3):1-10.
[4]何时有,肖欣.“中巴经济走廊”能源电力项目的投资风险[J].国际经济合作,2015,(2):82-85.
[5]PELLEGRINO R,VAJDIC N,CARBONARA N.Real Option Theory for Risk Mitigation in Transport PPPs[J].Built Environment Project and Asset Management,2013,3(2),199-213.
[6]LI J,ZOU P X W.Fuzzy AHP-Based Risk Assessment Methodology for PPP Projects[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2011,137(12),1205-1209.
[7]CARBONARA N,COSTANTINO N,GUNNIGAN L,et al.Risk Management in Motorway PPP Projects:Empirical-based Guidelines[J].Transport Reviews,2015,35(2),162-182.
[8]刘维庆,邓少波,顼志芬.城市轨道交通项目融资风险动态评价[J].系统工程,2016,34(12):153-158.
[9]徐友全,姚辉彬,安强,赵海洋.基于GRA-AHP的特色小镇PPP项目建设风险评价[J].工程管理学报,2017,31(6):71-76.
[10]丁斅,徐峰.基于贝叶斯网络的工程风险管理研究--以港珠澳大桥主体工程设计风险为例[J].系统管理学报,2018(1):176-185+191.
[11]孔亮,郭彦,张健.境外电力总承包项目风险管理[J].项目管理评论,2018(4):64-66.
[12]何佰洲,王玉.基于模糊综合评价的国际工程项目投资风险研究[J].北京建筑大学学报,2018,34(4):60-65.
[13]杨宝臣,陈跃.全寿命期集成化的跨境管道风险管理模式[J].工业工程与管理,2010,15(4):87-92.
[14]任南,韩冰洁,何彦昕.基于WBS-RBS-DSM的项目风险识别与评估[J].系统工程,2014,32(11):96-100.
[15]徐东升,梁永宽,向一莎.项目管理中资源配置的两阶段随机规划模型[J].统计与决策,2014(11):58-61.
[16]白礼彪,白思俊,张以彬.基于阶段耦合的项目组合配置战略贴近度[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(3):93-101.
[17]张文德,刘震.基于WBS-RBS的网络信息采集著作权风险识别研究[J].情报理论与实践,2012,35(2):96-100.
[18]Suleman T,Gupta R,Balcilar M.Does Country Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility?Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach[J].Research in International Business and Finance,2017,42:1173-1195.
[19]Lee Chi-Chuan,Lee Chien-Chiang,Ning S L.Dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks[J].Energy Economics,2017,66:571-581.
[20]刘畅,陈建明,孙晓蕾.“一带一路”沿线资源国国家风险与出口潜力区位选择[J].中国能源,2016,(3):19-24.
[21]蔡子嘉.海外电力总承包工程的风险评估及对策[D].北京:对外经济贸易大学,2016.
[22]高杨.海外发电运营项目风险分析与风险管控研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2016.
[23]LIU C,SUN X,CHEN J,et al.Statistical Properties of Country Risk Ratings under Oil Price Volatility:Evidence from Selected Oil-Exporting Countries[J].Energy Policy,2016,92:234-245.
[24]ILOIE R E.Connections between FDI,Corruption Index and Country Risk Assessments in Central and Eastern Europe[J].Procedia Economics and Finance,2015,32:626-633.
[25]BROWN C L,CAVUSGIL S T,LORD A W.Country-Risk Measurement and Analysis:A New Conceptualization and Managerial Tool[J].International Business Review,2015,24(2):246-265.
[26]仲谋,郭周明.中国企业海外施工的项目风险识别--以中铁建麦加项目为例[J].国际经济合作,2014(5):91-95.
[27]GLOVA J.Country Risk in the CESEE Countries:A Fundamental Beta Approach[J].Procedia Economics and Finance,2014,15:100-107.
[28]孙晓蕾,姚晓阳,杨玉英,吴登生,李建平.国家风险动态性的多尺度特征提取与识别:以OPEC国家为例[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(4):1-10.
[29]隗京兰,李付栋,刘健哲.海外BOT项目的风险管理--老挝水电市场BOT项目的风险分析及防范措施[J].国际经济合作,2013,(1):58-60.
[30]丁浩,张书通.海外石油工程项目风险评价--基于粗糙集理论和突变理论[J].科技进步与对策,2013,30(23):60-63.
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