1617号鲇鱼台风登陆后引发不同性质暴雨的成因对比分析
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摘要
2016年9月28日1617号台风"鲇鱼"登陆后由台风本体环流和外围环流引发了不同性质的暴雨,这是本次秋季登陆台风暴雨预报的难点。利用常规气象观测资料以及NCEP的1°×1°再分析资料等,对不同性质暴雨的成因进行了诊断对比分析。结果表明:浙江东南部对流性降水和江西南部稳定性降水的大气层结结构具有明显的差异。中高纬度低槽距离台风较远,冷空气主要从低层入侵台风西北侧,破坏台风低层的暖心结构。台风外围中层干冷空气随东南风向浙江东南部输送,并叠加在低层暖湿气流之上,形成上冷下暖的不稳定层结,同时在对流层上层有干冷空气下沉至台风环流中下层(干侵入),导致浙江文成附近出现了局地特大暴雨。江西南部由于低层被湿冷空气占据,层结较为稳定,降水发展平缓。低空东南急流为台风外围环流暴雨提供了充足的水汽,浙江东南部地形对降水起到了增幅作用。不稳定层结及中层冷空气的输送对对流性暴雨的激发作用可以为登陆台风降水性质和强度预报提供参考依据。
The typhoon Megi(1617) was a large-scale and strong tropical cyclone. After typhoon Megi landed on 28 September 2016,different types of heavy rainfall were induced by body circulation and peripheral circulation of the typhoon,which was the difficulty of heavy rainfall forecasting for typhoon landing in autumn. Based on the convectional meteorological observation data and NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data etc.,this paper diagnosed and compared the causes of different types of heavy rainfall in Zhejiang and Jiangxi provinces. Results showthat there are obvious differences in atmospheric stratification structure between convective precipitation in southeastern Zhejiang and stable precipitation in southern Jiangxi. The trough in middle and high latitudes is far away from typhoon Megi. Cold air intrusion mainly occurs in the northwest side of typhoon from the lower level,destroying the low-level warm core structure of the typhoon. The dry and cold air at middle level around the typhoon is transported by southeast wind to southeastern Zhejiang. The dry and cold air is overlaid on the lower warm and wet airflow,forming an unstable stratification of upper cold and lower warm. Meanwhile,dry and cold air from the upper troposphere sinks into the middle and lower levels of typhoon circulation( dry intrusion),which results in local extreme heavy rainfall near Wencheng in Zhejiang. In southern Jiangxi,because the lower level is occupied by wet and cold air,the stratification is relatively stable and the precipitation develops slowly compared to that in Zhejiang. The low-level southeast jet stream provides abundant moisture for the heavy rainfall in the peripheral circulation of typhoon. The mountain topography in southeastern Zhejiang has played an increasing role in precipitation. The trigger effects of unstable stratification and transport of middle-level cold air on convectional heavy rainfall can be used as references for forecasting of precipitation characteristics and intensity of landing typhoon.
The typhoon Megi(1617) was a large-scale and strong tropical cyclone. After typhoon Megi landed on 28 September 2016,different types of heavy rainfall were induced by body circulation and peripheral circulation of the typhoon,which was the difficulty of heavy rainfall forecasting for typhoon landing in autumn. Based on the convectional meteorological observation data and NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data etc.,this paper diagnosed and compared the causes of different types of heavy rainfall in Zhejiang and Jiangxi provinces. Results showthat there are obvious differences in atmospheric stratification structure between convective precipitation in southeastern Zhejiang and stable precipitation in southern Jiangxi. The trough in middle and high latitudes is far away from typhoon Megi. Cold air intrusion mainly occurs in the northwest side of typhoon from the lower level,destroying the low-level warm core structure of the typhoon. The dry and cold air at middle level around the typhoon is transported by southeast wind to southeastern Zhejiang. The dry and cold air is overlaid on the lower warm and wet airflow,forming an unstable stratification of upper cold and lower warm. Meanwhile,dry and cold air from the upper troposphere sinks into the middle and lower levels of typhoon circulation( dry intrusion),which results in local extreme heavy rainfall near Wencheng in Zhejiang. In southern Jiangxi,because the lower level is occupied by wet and cold air,the stratification is relatively stable and the precipitation develops slowly compared to that in Zhejiang. The low-level southeast jet stream provides abundant moisture for the heavy rainfall in the peripheral circulation of typhoon. The mountain topography in southeastern Zhejiang has played an increasing role in precipitation. The trigger effects of unstable stratification and transport of middle-level cold air on convectional heavy rainfall can be used as references for forecasting of precipitation characteristics and intensity of landing typhoon.
引文
Browning K A,1997.The dry intrusion perspective of extra-tropical cyclone development[J].Meteor Appl,4(4):317-324.
Browning K A,Golding B W,1995.Mesoscale aspects of a dry intrusion within a vigorous cyclone[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,121(523):463-493.
蔡菁,吴立广,赖巧珍,等,2017.台风“苏拉”登陆福建后降水的非对称成因分析[J].大气科学学报,40(6):814-822.Cai J,Wu L G,Lai Q Z,et al.,2017.Analysis of the precipitation asymmetries of typhoon Saola after its landfall on Fujian Province[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(6):814-822.(in Chinese).
曹晓岗,王慧,漆梁波,2014.台风与冷空气对“13.10”上海特大暴雨过程的影响分析[J].暴雨灾害,33(4):351-362.Cao X G,Wang H,Qi L B,2014.The combined effects of typhoon Fitow and Danas together with cool air on an excessive heavy rain from October 7 to 8 in 2013 in Shanghai[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,33(4):351-362.(in Chinese).
陈联寿,丁一汇,1979.西太平洋台风概论[M].北京:科学出版社:56-58.Chen L S,Ding Y H,1979.An introduction to the western Pacific typhoon [M].Beijing:Science Press,56-58.(in Chinese).
陈联寿,罗哲贤,1996.影响热带气旋结构和运动的两类因子的数值研究[J].气象学报,54(4):409-416.Chen L S,Luo Z X,1996.Numerical study on the impact of two kinds of factors on tropical cyclone's structure and motion of typhoons[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,54(4):409-416.(in Chinese).
陈联寿,孟智勇,丛春华,等,2017.台风暴雨落区研究综述[J].海洋气象学报,37(4):1-7.Chen L S,Meng Z Y,Cong C H,et al.,2017.An overview on the research of typhoon rainfall distribution[J].Journal of Shandong Meteorology,37(4):1-7.(in Chinese).
程正泉,陈联寿,徐祥德,等,2005.近10年中国台风暴雨研究进展[J].气象,31(12):3-9.Cheng Z Q,Chen L S,Xu X D,et al.,2005.Research progress on typhoon heavy rainfall in China for last ten years[J].Meteor Mon,31(12):3-9.(in Chinese).
丁治英,朱静,邢蕊,等,2017.热带扰动与远距离暴雨关系的统计分析与数值试验[J].大气科学学报,40(4):496-507.Ding Z Y,Zhu J,Xing R,et al.,2017.Research on the relationship between tropical disturbance and distant rainstorm by statistical analysis and numerical simulation[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(4):496-507.(in Chinese).
杜惠良,黄新晴,冯晓伟,等,2011.弱冷空气与台风残留低压相互作用对一次大暴雨过程的影响[J].气象,37(7):847-856.Du H L,Huang X Q,Feng X W,et al.,2011.The effect of the interaction between weak cold flow and typhoon depression on a rainstorm[J].Meteor Mon,37(7):847-856.(in Chinese).
郭英莲,徐海明,2010.对流层中上层干空气对“碧利斯”台风暴雨的影响[J].大气科学学报,33(1):98-109.Guo Y L,Xu H M,2010.Effects of dry air in the upper troposphere on bilis rainstorm[J].Trans Atmos Sci,33(1):98-109.(in Chinese).
雷小途,2000.非绝热加热对热带气旋径向非均匀结构的影响[J].海洋学报,22(4):24-30.Lei X T,2000.The influence of diabatic heating on tropical cyclone radial inhomogeneity structure[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,22(4):24-30.(in Chinese).
李英,陈联寿,雷小途,等,2006.高空槽对9711号台风变性加强影响的数值研究[J].气象学报,64(5):552-563.Li Y,Chen L S,Lei X T,et al.,2006.Numerical study on impacts of upper-level westerly trough on the extratropical transition process of typhoon winnie(1997)[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,64(5):552-563.(in Chinese).
林建,2011.2009年8月29日黄淮和西南地区不同性质暴雨特征分析[J].气象,37(3):276-284.Lin J,2011.Characteristic analysis of different torrential rain over Huanghuai Basin and Southwest China on 29 August 2009 [J].Meteor Mon,37(3):276-284.(in Chinese).
Lin Y L,Sen C A,Wang T A,et al.,2001.Some common ingredients for heavy orographic rainfall[J].Wea Forecasting,16(6):633-660.
钮学新,杜惠良,刘建勇,2005.0216号台风降水及其影响降水机制的数值模拟试验[J].气象学报,63(1):57-68.Niu X X,Du H L,Liu J Y,2005.The numerical simulation of rainfall and precipitation mechanism associated with typhoon SinlaKu(0216)[J].Acta Meteorological Sinica,63(1):57-68.(in Chinese).
吴海英,曾明剑,王卫芳,等,2015.1211号 “海葵” 台风登陆后引发两段大暴雨过程的对比分析[J].大气科学学报,38(5):670-677.Wu H Y,Zeng M J,Wang W F,et al.,2015.Comparative analysis on two rainstorm processes caused by typhoon Haikui(1211) after landfall[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(5):670-677.(in Chinese).
许娈,崔晓鹏,高守亭,等,2015.台风“鲶鱼”(1013)路径突变过程的成因分析[J].大气科学学报,38(5):658-669.Xu L,Cui X P,Gao S T,et al.,2015.Cause analysis of sudden track change of Typhoon Megi(1013) [J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(5):658-669.(in Chinese).
杨舒楠,陈涛,刘建勇,2018.两次台风暴雨冷空气影响对比分析[J].气象科技,46(2):324-335.Yang S N,Chen T,Liu J Y,2018.Comparative analysis of TC rainstorms induced by cold air intrusion of two TC cases[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,46(2):324-335.(in Chinese).
于玉斌,姚秀萍,2000.对华北一次特大台风暴雨过程的位涡诊断分析[J].高原气象,19(1):111-120.Yu Y B,Yao X P,2000.The diagnosis analysis of potential vorticity for a severe typhoon rainstorm in North China[J].Plateau Meteorology,19(1):111-120.(in Chinese).
张娟娟,许爱华,陈云辉,等,2015.一次远距离台风影响下的对流性暴雨分析[J].暴雨灾害,34(4):335-342.Zhang J J,Xu A H,Chen Y H,et al.,2015.Analysis of convective storm rainfall under influence by a distant Typhoon[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,34(4):335-342.(in Chinese).
Browning K A,Golding B W,1995.Mesoscale aspects of a dry intrusion within a vigorous cyclone[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,121(523):463-493.
蔡菁,吴立广,赖巧珍,等,2017.台风“苏拉”登陆福建后降水的非对称成因分析[J].大气科学学报,40(6):814-822.Cai J,Wu L G,Lai Q Z,et al.,2017.Analysis of the precipitation asymmetries of typhoon Saola after its landfall on Fujian Province[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(6):814-822.(in Chinese).
曹晓岗,王慧,漆梁波,2014.台风与冷空气对“13.10”上海特大暴雨过程的影响分析[J].暴雨灾害,33(4):351-362.Cao X G,Wang H,Qi L B,2014.The combined effects of typhoon Fitow and Danas together with cool air on an excessive heavy rain from October 7 to 8 in 2013 in Shanghai[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,33(4):351-362.(in Chinese).
陈联寿,丁一汇,1979.西太平洋台风概论[M].北京:科学出版社:56-58.Chen L S,Ding Y H,1979.An introduction to the western Pacific typhoon [M].Beijing:Science Press,56-58.(in Chinese).
陈联寿,罗哲贤,1996.影响热带气旋结构和运动的两类因子的数值研究[J].气象学报,54(4):409-416.Chen L S,Luo Z X,1996.Numerical study on the impact of two kinds of factors on tropical cyclone's structure and motion of typhoons[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,54(4):409-416.(in Chinese).
陈联寿,孟智勇,丛春华,等,2017.台风暴雨落区研究综述[J].海洋气象学报,37(4):1-7.Chen L S,Meng Z Y,Cong C H,et al.,2017.An overview on the research of typhoon rainfall distribution[J].Journal of Shandong Meteorology,37(4):1-7.(in Chinese).
程正泉,陈联寿,徐祥德,等,2005.近10年中国台风暴雨研究进展[J].气象,31(12):3-9.Cheng Z Q,Chen L S,Xu X D,et al.,2005.Research progress on typhoon heavy rainfall in China for last ten years[J].Meteor Mon,31(12):3-9.(in Chinese).
丁治英,朱静,邢蕊,等,2017.热带扰动与远距离暴雨关系的统计分析与数值试验[J].大气科学学报,40(4):496-507.Ding Z Y,Zhu J,Xing R,et al.,2017.Research on the relationship between tropical disturbance and distant rainstorm by statistical analysis and numerical simulation[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(4):496-507.(in Chinese).
杜惠良,黄新晴,冯晓伟,等,2011.弱冷空气与台风残留低压相互作用对一次大暴雨过程的影响[J].气象,37(7):847-856.Du H L,Huang X Q,Feng X W,et al.,2011.The effect of the interaction between weak cold flow and typhoon depression on a rainstorm[J].Meteor Mon,37(7):847-856.(in Chinese).
郭英莲,徐海明,2010.对流层中上层干空气对“碧利斯”台风暴雨的影响[J].大气科学学报,33(1):98-109.Guo Y L,Xu H M,2010.Effects of dry air in the upper troposphere on bilis rainstorm[J].Trans Atmos Sci,33(1):98-109.(in Chinese).
雷小途,2000.非绝热加热对热带气旋径向非均匀结构的影响[J].海洋学报,22(4):24-30.Lei X T,2000.The influence of diabatic heating on tropical cyclone radial inhomogeneity structure[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,22(4):24-30.(in Chinese).
李英,陈联寿,雷小途,等,2006.高空槽对9711号台风变性加强影响的数值研究[J].气象学报,64(5):552-563.Li Y,Chen L S,Lei X T,et al.,2006.Numerical study on impacts of upper-level westerly trough on the extratropical transition process of typhoon winnie(1997)[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,64(5):552-563.(in Chinese).
林建,2011.2009年8月29日黄淮和西南地区不同性质暴雨特征分析[J].气象,37(3):276-284.Lin J,2011.Characteristic analysis of different torrential rain over Huanghuai Basin and Southwest China on 29 August 2009 [J].Meteor Mon,37(3):276-284.(in Chinese).
Lin Y L,Sen C A,Wang T A,et al.,2001.Some common ingredients for heavy orographic rainfall[J].Wea Forecasting,16(6):633-660.
钮学新,杜惠良,刘建勇,2005.0216号台风降水及其影响降水机制的数值模拟试验[J].气象学报,63(1):57-68.Niu X X,Du H L,Liu J Y,2005.The numerical simulation of rainfall and precipitation mechanism associated with typhoon SinlaKu(0216)[J].Acta Meteorological Sinica,63(1):57-68.(in Chinese).
吴海英,曾明剑,王卫芳,等,2015.1211号 “海葵” 台风登陆后引发两段大暴雨过程的对比分析[J].大气科学学报,38(5):670-677.Wu H Y,Zeng M J,Wang W F,et al.,2015.Comparative analysis on two rainstorm processes caused by typhoon Haikui(1211) after landfall[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(5):670-677.(in Chinese).
许娈,崔晓鹏,高守亭,等,2015.台风“鲶鱼”(1013)路径突变过程的成因分析[J].大气科学学报,38(5):658-669.Xu L,Cui X P,Gao S T,et al.,2015.Cause analysis of sudden track change of Typhoon Megi(1013) [J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(5):658-669.(in Chinese).
杨舒楠,陈涛,刘建勇,2018.两次台风暴雨冷空气影响对比分析[J].气象科技,46(2):324-335.Yang S N,Chen T,Liu J Y,2018.Comparative analysis of TC rainstorms induced by cold air intrusion of two TC cases[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,46(2):324-335.(in Chinese).
于玉斌,姚秀萍,2000.对华北一次特大台风暴雨过程的位涡诊断分析[J].高原气象,19(1):111-120.Yu Y B,Yao X P,2000.The diagnosis analysis of potential vorticity for a severe typhoon rainstorm in North China[J].Plateau Meteorology,19(1):111-120.(in Chinese).
张娟娟,许爱华,陈云辉,等,2015.一次远距离台风影响下的对流性暴雨分析[J].暴雨灾害,34(4):335-342.Zhang J J,Xu A H,Chen Y H,et al.,2015.Analysis of convective storm rainfall under influence by a distant Typhoon[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,34(4):335-342.(in Chinese).
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