中国海洋经济转型评价及影响机制
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摘要
当前,我国处于海洋经济转型的重要阶段,海洋经济宏观转型的机制研究将为中微观海洋发展指明方向。通过熵值法计算海洋经济转型指标权重,评价我国沿海11个省市海洋经济转型度,检验海洋经济转型的空间相关性,并以沿海11个省市2001—2015年面板数据为基础,运用空间杜宾模型,识别海洋经济转型的影响机制。研究结果表明:①空间上,相邻省市的海洋经济转型度总体呈上升趋势,但地区之间发展存在着较大差异;②沿海省市海洋经济转型空间相关性2001—2007年逐渐减弱,2008—2016年逐渐增强;③控制主要海洋产业占GDP比重、海洋经济密度有利于本地区海洋经济转型发展,而控制海洋类型自然保护区建成量、海洋专业技术人员、泊位数、海洋经济密度则有利于其他沿海省市海洋经济转型发展。
China was at an important stage in the transformation of the marine economy. The research on the mechanism of the macro-transformation of the marine economy would point out the direction for the development of the micro-and medium-sized marine economy. The entropy method was used to calculate the weight of marine economic transformation indicators,and the degree of marine economic transformation in the eleven provinces and cities along the coast was evaluated. Based on the panel data of the 11 provinces and cities in the coastal areas from 2001 to 2015,this paper examined the spatial correlation of marine economic transformation and identified the impact mechanism of marine economic transformation by using the spatial Durbin model. The results showed that: ①The spatial economic transition degree of adjacent provinces and cities was generally on the rise,and there was a big difference in the development between regions. ②Spatial correlation of marine economic transformation in coastal provinces and cities gradually weakened from 2001 to 2007,and gradually increased from 2008 to 2016. ③Controlling the proportion of major marine industries in GDP and ocean economic density was conducive to the transformation and development of the marine economy in the region. Controlling the quantity of marine nature reserves,marine professional and technicians,berths,and marine economic density was conducive to the transformation and development of marine economy in other coastal provinces and cities.
China was at an important stage in the transformation of the marine economy. The research on the mechanism of the macro-transformation of the marine economy would point out the direction for the development of the micro-and medium-sized marine economy. The entropy method was used to calculate the weight of marine economic transformation indicators,and the degree of marine economic transformation in the eleven provinces and cities along the coast was evaluated. Based on the panel data of the 11 provinces and cities in the coastal areas from 2001 to 2015,this paper examined the spatial correlation of marine economic transformation and identified the impact mechanism of marine economic transformation by using the spatial Durbin model. The results showed that: ①The spatial economic transition degree of adjacent provinces and cities was generally on the rise,and there was a big difference in the development between regions. ②Spatial correlation of marine economic transformation in coastal provinces and cities gradually weakened from 2001 to 2007,and gradually increased from 2008 to 2016. ③Controlling the proportion of major marine industries in GDP and ocean economic density was conducive to the transformation and development of the marine economy in the region. Controlling the quantity of marine nature reserves,marine professional and technicians,berths,and marine economic density was conducive to the transformation and development of marine economy in other coastal provinces and cities.
引文
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[23]刘莉莉,万荣,段媛媛,等.山东省海洋渔业资源增殖放流及其渔业效益[J].海洋湖沼通报,2008,(4)∶91-98.
[24]陈力群,张朝晖,王宗灵.海洋渔业资源可持续利用的一种模式——海洋牧场[J].海岸工程,2006,(4)∶71-76.
[25]卢寿祥.海洋产业结构升级对策[J].港口经济,2003,(6)∶23.
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[27]朱念,朱芳阳.北部湾经济区海洋产业转型升级对策探析[J].海洋经济,2011,(6)∶40-44.
[28]李博,杨智,苏飞.基于集对分析的大连市人海经济系统脆弱性测度[J].地理研究,2015,34(5)∶967-976.
[29]李博,苏飞,杨智,等.脆弱性视角下辽宁沿海地区人海关系地域系统特征演化及可持续发展模式[J].地域研究与开发,2017,36(4)∶32-36.
[30]李博,苏飞,杨智,等.基于脆弱性视角的环渤海地区人海关系地域系统时空特征及演化分析[J].生态学报,2018,38(4)∶1436-1445.
[31]吴凯,卢布.中国海洋产业结构的系统分析与海洋渔业的可持续发展[J].中国农学通报,2007,(1)∶367-370.
[32]杨金森.建立合理的海洋经济结构[J].海洋开发与管理,1984,(1)∶22-26.
[33]曹忠祥,任东明,王文瑞,等.区域海洋经济发展的结构性演进特征分析[J].人文地理,2005,(6)∶29-33.
[34]高田义,常飞,高斯琪.青岛海洋经济产业结构转型升级研究——基于科技创新效率的分析与评价[J].管理评论,2018,30(12)∶42-48.
[2]Rorholm Niels. Economic Impact of Marine-oriented Activities:A Study of the Southern New England Marine Region[R]. Kings-ton,USA:University of Rhode Island,Dept of Food and Resource Economics,1967.
[3]Nichols P D,Mooney B D,Elliott N G. Value-adding to Australian Marine 0ils[J]. Developments in Food Science,2004,42(4)∶115-130.
[4]Gogoberidze G. Tools for Comprehensive Estimate of Coastal Region Marine Economy Potential and Its Use for Coastal Planning[J]. Journal of Coastal Conservation,2012,16(3)∶251-260.
[5]郭丕斌,李丹,周喜君.技术锁定状态下煤炭资源型经济转型的出路与对策[J].经济问题,2015,(12)∶24-27.
[6]米金科.煤炭资源枯竭地区经济转型研究综述[J].煤炭工程,2008,(12)∶102-103.
[7]刘志彪,陈柳.政策标准、路径与措施:经济转型升级的进一步思考[J].南京大学学报(哲学·人文科学·社会科学),2014,51(5)∶48-56.
[8]中国经济增长前沿课题组,张平,刘霞辉,等.中国经济转型的结构性特征、风险与效率提升路径[J].经济研究,2013,48(10)∶4-17.
[9]高见,邬晓霞.山西资源型经济转型突破发展的支持政策研究[J].经济问题,2018,(09)∶17-21.
[10]李立.中国资源枯竭型地区经济转型政策研究[D].北京:中国地质大学硕士学位论文,2010.
[11]陈丰龙,徐康宁.经济转型是否促进FDI技术溢出:来自23个国家的证据[J].世界经济,2014,37(3)∶104-128.
[12]詹知巡,许月丽.经济转型过程中政府政策工具调控的国际经验——以战后美国为例[J].特区经济,2018,(10)∶100-103.
[13]李长胜,蔡敏.产业政策与经济转型:美国20世纪80年代以来的经验与启示[J].改革与战略,2018,34(7)∶116-122.
[14]陈爱敏,陈一雷.经济转型与都市空间建构——20世纪美国转型期都市戏剧管窥[J].外国文学研究,2017,39(3)∶122-128.
[15]张玉来.“安倍经济学”与日本经济结构转型[J].日本学刊,2016,(3)∶53-72.
[16]黄南,张二震.经济转型的目标、路径与绩效:理论研究述评[J].经济评论,2017,(2)∶150-160.
[17]安然,周余义.深圳海洋经济转型发展策略思考[J].开放导报,2013,(1)∶24-28.
[18]张耀光.海洋经济地理研究与其在我国的进展[J].经济地理,1988,(2)∶152-155.
[19]杨林,苏昕.产业生态学视角下海洋渔业产业结构优化升级的目标与实施路径研究[J].农业经济问题,2010,31(10)∶99-105.
[20]向晓梅.农业供给侧结构性改革视角下我国海洋渔业转型升级路径[J].广东社会科学,2017,(5)∶23-29.
[21]宋蔚.中国现阶段海洋渔业转型问题研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学硕士学位论文,2009.
[22]杨卫,向文琦,刘禹辰.中国海洋渔业科技进步贡献率的测算与分析[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(14)∶46-51.
[23]刘莉莉,万荣,段媛媛,等.山东省海洋渔业资源增殖放流及其渔业效益[J].海洋湖沼通报,2008,(4)∶91-98.
[24]陈力群,张朝晖,王宗灵.海洋渔业资源可持续利用的一种模式——海洋牧场[J].海岸工程,2006,(4)∶71-76.
[25]卢寿祥.海洋产业结构升级对策[J].港口经济,2003,(6)∶23.
[26]李宜良,王震.海洋产业结构优化升级政策研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2009,26(6)∶84-87.
[27]朱念,朱芳阳.北部湾经济区海洋产业转型升级对策探析[J].海洋经济,2011,(6)∶40-44.
[28]李博,杨智,苏飞.基于集对分析的大连市人海经济系统脆弱性测度[J].地理研究,2015,34(5)∶967-976.
[29]李博,苏飞,杨智,等.脆弱性视角下辽宁沿海地区人海关系地域系统特征演化及可持续发展模式[J].地域研究与开发,2017,36(4)∶32-36.
[30]李博,苏飞,杨智,等.基于脆弱性视角的环渤海地区人海关系地域系统时空特征及演化分析[J].生态学报,2018,38(4)∶1436-1445.
[31]吴凯,卢布.中国海洋产业结构的系统分析与海洋渔业的可持续发展[J].中国农学通报,2007,(1)∶367-370.
[32]杨金森.建立合理的海洋经济结构[J].海洋开发与管理,1984,(1)∶22-26.
[33]曹忠祥,任东明,王文瑞,等.区域海洋经济发展的结构性演进特征分析[J].人文地理,2005,(6)∶29-33.
[34]高田义,常飞,高斯琪.青岛海洋经济产业结构转型升级研究——基于科技创新效率的分析与评价[J].管理评论,2018,30(12)∶42-48.
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