结构模型在国际贸易研究中的应用
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摘要
结构模型(Structural Model)又称为结构计量模型(Structural Econometric Model),是将正式的经济学模型和统计模型(Statistical Model)结合,用于估计描述现实的深层参数(Deep Parameters),模拟现实世界,以便合理地评估政策效果的实证工具。结构模型对于国际贸易研究尤其重要,因为国际贸易理论和政策评估通常涉及复杂的一般均衡效应和福利分析,需要将多国多部门的因素在统一的结构框架下进行量化,从而得到较为可靠的政策建议。本文全面介绍了结构模型的概念、方法、优势以及局限,并在此基础上,具体介绍了结构模型在全球价值链(Global Value Chain)、异质性企业贸易模型,以及动态空间模型(Dynamic Spatial Model)等三个前沿领域中的应用,梳理各领域的重要文献,发掘现有研究的不足和未来的研究方向。
The structural model, or the structural econometric model, is an empirical framework that combines explicit economic models with statistical models to estimate deep parameters that drive the economy, to simulate the real world, and to evaluate policy implications. Structural modeling is particularly important to the study of international trade, since international trade theories and policy practices often involve complex general equilibrium effects and welfare analysis. To propose reasonable policy suggestions, it requires incorporating factors from multiple countries and sectors into a unified quantifiable general equilibrium framework. This paper introduces the concepts and methodology of the structural modeling, discussing its advantages and limitations. To this end, we investigate three topics in international trade that attract increasing attention of structural modeling: the implications of global value chain, trade models with heterogeneous firms, and the dynamic spatial models. In each topic, we discuss the recent progress, the gaps in the literature, and the future directions.
The structural model, or the structural econometric model, is an empirical framework that combines explicit economic models with statistical models to estimate deep parameters that drive the economy, to simulate the real world, and to evaluate policy implications. Structural modeling is particularly important to the study of international trade, since international trade theories and policy practices often involve complex general equilibrium effects and welfare analysis. To propose reasonable policy suggestions, it requires incorporating factors from multiple countries and sectors into a unified quantifiable general equilibrium framework. This paper introduces the concepts and methodology of the structural modeling, discussing its advantages and limitations. To this end, we investigate three topics in international trade that attract increasing attention of structural modeling: the implications of global value chain, trade models with heterogeneous firms, and the dynamic spatial models. In each topic, we discuss the recent progress, the gaps in the literature, and the future directions.
引文
[1]Adao,R.,C.Arkolakis,and F.Esposito.Spatial Linkages,Global Shocks,and Local Labor Markets:Theory and Evidence[R].NBER Working Paper,2019.
[2]Ahlfeldt,G.M.,S.J.Redding,D.M.Sturm,and N.Wolf.The Economics of Density:Evidence from the Berlin Wall[J].Econometrica,2015,83(6):2127-2189.
[3]Allen,T.,and C.Arkolakis.Trade and the Topography of the Spatial Economy[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2014,129(3):1085-1140.
[4]Allen,T.,and C.Arkolakis.The Welfare Effects of Transportation Infrastructure Improvements[R].NBERWorking Paper,2019.
[5]Allen,T.,and D.Donaldson.The Geography of Path Dependence[R].MIT Working Paper,2018.
[6]Anderson,J.,M.Larch,and Y.Yotov.Trade and Investment in the Global Economy[R].NBER Working Paper,2017.
[7]Antras,P.,and A.de Gortari.On the Geography of Global Value Chains[R].NBER Working Paper,2017.
[8]Antras,P.,and R.W.Staiger.Offshoring and the Role of Trade Agreements[J].American Economic Review,2012,102(7):3140-3183.
[9]Antras,P.,T.C.Fort,and F.Tintlenot.The Margins of Global Sourcing:Theory And Evidence from U.S.Firms[J].American Economic Review,2017,107(9):2514-2164.
[10]Arkolakis,C.Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade[J].Journal of Political Economy,2010,118(6):1151-1199.
[11]Arkolakis,C.,A.Costinot,and A.Rodríguez-Clare.New Trade Models,Same Old Gains[J].American Economic Review,2012,102(1):94-130.
[12]Arkolakis,C.,N.Ramondo,A.Rodríguez-Clare,and S.R.Yeaple.Innovation and Production in the Global Economy[J].American Economic Review,2018,108(8):2128-2173.
[13]Bartelme,D.,A.Costinot,D.Donaldson,and A.Rodriguez-clare.External Economies of Scale and Industrial Policy:A View from Trade[R].MIT Working Paper,2018.
[14]Bernard,A.B.,J.B.Jensen,S.J.Redding,and P.K.Schott.Global Firms[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2018a,56(2):565-619.
[15]Bernard,A.,A.Moxnes,and K.H.Ulltveitmoe.Two-sided Heterogeneity and Trade[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2018b,100(3):424-439.
[16]Bilir,L.K.,and E.Morales.Innovation in the Global Firm[R].NBER Working Paper,2018.
[17]Blanchard,E.J.,C.P.Bown,and R.C.Johnson.Global Supply Chains and Trade Policy[R].NBER Working Paper,2016.
[18]Broda,C.,and D.E.Weinstein.Globalization and the Gains from Variety[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2006,121(2):541-585.
[19]Bryan,G.,and M.Morten.The Aggregate Productivity Effects of Internal Migration:Evidence from Indonesia[R].NBER Working Paper,2018.
[20]Buera,F.J.,and E.Oberfield.The Global Diffusion of Ideas[R].NBER Working Paper,2017.
[21]Burstein,A.,G.Hanson,L.Tian,and J.Vogel.Trade Ability and the Labor-Market Impact of Immigration:Theory and Evidence from the U.S[R].NBER Working Paper,2016.
[22]Cai,J.,and N.Li.Growth through Inter-sectoral Knowledge Linkages[J].The Review of Economic Studies,2018,https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy062.
[23]Caliendo,L.,and F.Parro.Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA[J].Review of Economic Studies,2015,82(1):1-44.
[24]Caliendo,L.,F.Parro,E.Rossi-Hansberg,and P.D.Sarte.The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S.Economy[J].Review of Economic Studies,2018,85(4):2042-2096.
[25]Cosar,A.K.,P.L.E.Grieco,S.Li,and F.Tintelnot.What Drives Home Market Advantage[J].Journal of International Economics,2018,(110):135-150.
[26]Costinot,A.,D.Donaldson,and I.Komunjer.What Goods Do Countries Trade?A Quantitative Exploration of Ricardo’s Ideas[J].Review of Economic Studies,2012,79(2):581-608.
[27]Cravino,J.,and A.A.Levchenko.Multinational Firms and Business Cycle Transmission[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2017,132(2):921-962.
[28]Dekle,R.,J.Eaton,and S.Kortum.Global Rebalancing with Gravity:Measuring the Burden of Adjustment[J].IMF Staff Papers,2008,55(3):511-540.
[29]Desmet,K.,D.K.Nagy,and E.Rossi-Hansberg.The Geography of Development[J].Journal of Political Economy,2018,126(3):903-983.
[30]Desmet,K.,and E.Rossi-Hansberg.Urban Accounting and Welfare[J].American Economic Review,2013,103(6):2296-2327.
[31]Eaton,J.,and S.Kortum.Technology,Geography,and Trade[J].Econometrica,2002,70(5):1741-1779.
[32]Eaton,J.,S.Kortum,and F.Kramarz.An Anatomy of International Trade:Evidence from French Firms[J].Econometrica,2011,79(5):1453-1498.
[33]Eaton,J.,S.Kortum,B.Neiman,and J.Romalis.Trade and the Global Recession[J].American Economic Review,2016,106(11):3401-38.
[34]Faber,B.,and C.Gaubert.Tourism and Economic Development:Evidence from Mexico’s Coastline[R].NBERWorking Paper,2018.
[35]Fajgelbaum,P.D.,E.Morales,J.C.S.Serrato,and O.Zidar.State Taxes and Spatial Misallocation[J].Review of Economic Studies,2019,86(1):333-376.
[36]Fally,T.,and R.Hillberry.A Coasian Model of International Production Chains[J].Journal of International Economics,2018,(114):299-315.
[37]Fan,J.T.Internal Geography,Labor Mobility,and the Distributional Impacts of Trade[J].American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.2019.
[38]Feenstra,R.C.,P.Luck,M.Obstfeld,and K.N.Russ.In Search of the Armington Elasticity[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2018,100(1):135-150.
[39]Feng,L.,Z.Y.Li,and D.L.Swenson.Trade Policy Uncertainty and Exports:Evidence from China’s WTOAccession[J].Journal of International Economics,2017,(106):20-36.
[40]Fieler,A.C.,M.Eslava,and D.Y.Xu.Trade,Quality Upgrading,and Input Linkages:Theory and Evidence from Colombia[J].American Economic Review,2018,108(1):109-146.
[41]Galle,S.,A.Rodriguez-Clare,and M.Yi.Slicing the Pie:Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade[R].NBER Working Paper,2015.
[42]Greenstone,M.,R.Hornbeck,and E.Moretti.Identifying Agglomeration Spillovers:Evidence from Winners and Losers of Large Plants Openings[J].Journal of Political Economy,2010,118(3):536-598.
[43]Handley,K.,and N.Lim觔o.Policy Uncertainty,Trade,and Welfare:Theory and Evidence for China and the United States[J].American Economic Review,2017,107(9):2731-2783.
[44]Head,K.,and T.Mayer.Misfits in the Car Industry:Offshore Assembly Decisions at the Variety Level[R].NBER Working Paper,2018.
[45]Helpman,E.,M.J.Melitz,and S.R.Yeaple.Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms[J].American Economic Review,2004,94(1):300-315.
[46]Hottman,C.J.,S.J.Redding,and D.E.Weinstein.Quantifying the Sources of Firm Heterogeneity[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,131(3):1291-1364.
[47]Hsieh,C.T.,E.Hurst,C.I.Jones,and P.J.Klenow.The Allocation of Talent and U.S.Economic Growth[R].NBER Working Paper,2013.
[48]Irarrazabal,A.A.,A.Moxnes,and L.D.Opromolla.The Margins of Multinational Production and the Role of Intra-Firm Trade[J].Journal of Political Economy,2013,121(1):74-126.
[49]Johnson,R.C.,and A.Moxnes.Technology,Trade Costs,and the Pattern of Trade with Multi-Stage Production[R].Dartmouth College Working Paper Series,2016.
[50]Lashkaripour,A.,and V.Lugovskyy.Scale Economies and the Structure of Trade and Industrial Policy[R].Indiana University SSRC Working Paper Series,2016.
[51]Lim,K.Endogenous Production Networks and the Business Cycle[R].University of Toronto Working Paper,2018.
[52]Liu,C.,and Z.Wang.Quantifying the Aggregate Effects of Inter-Firm Knowledge Networks[R].Peking University Working Paper Series,2018.
[53]Low,H.,and C.Meghir.The Use of Structural Models in Econometrics[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2017,31(2):33-58.
[54]Lucas,R.Econometric Policy Evaluation:A Critique[J].Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,Elsevier,1976,1(1):19-46.
[55]Melitz,M.The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry[J].Econometrica,2003,71(6):1695-1725.
[56]Redding,S.J.,and D.E.Weinstein.Aggregating from Micro to Macro Patterns of Trade[R].NBER Working Paper,2018.
[57]Reiss,P.C.,and F.A.Wolak.Structural Econometric Modeling:Rationales and Examples from Industrial Organization[J].Handbook of Econometrics,2007,(6A):4277-4415.
[58]Simonovska,I.,and M.E.Waugh.The Elasticity of Trade:Estimates and Evidence[J].Journal of International Economics,2014,92(1):34-50.
[59]Tintelnot,F.Global Production with Export Platforms[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2017,132(1):157-209.
[60]Tintelnot,F.,A.K.Kikkawa,M.Mogstad,and E.Dhyne.Trade and Domestic Production Networks[R].NBER Working Paper,2018.
[61]Tombe,T.,and X.Zhu.Trade,Migration and Productivity:A Quantitative Analysis of China[EB/OL].https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20150811&&from=f,2019.
[62]Yi,K.M.Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade[J].Journal of Political Economy,2003,111(1):52-102.
[63]Yi,K.M.Can Multi-Stage Production Explain the Home Bias in Trade[J].American Economic Review,2010,100(1):364-393.
[2]Ahlfeldt,G.M.,S.J.Redding,D.M.Sturm,and N.Wolf.The Economics of Density:Evidence from the Berlin Wall[J].Econometrica,2015,83(6):2127-2189.
[3]Allen,T.,and C.Arkolakis.Trade and the Topography of the Spatial Economy[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2014,129(3):1085-1140.
[4]Allen,T.,and C.Arkolakis.The Welfare Effects of Transportation Infrastructure Improvements[R].NBERWorking Paper,2019.
[5]Allen,T.,and D.Donaldson.The Geography of Path Dependence[R].MIT Working Paper,2018.
[6]Anderson,J.,M.Larch,and Y.Yotov.Trade and Investment in the Global Economy[R].NBER Working Paper,2017.
[7]Antras,P.,and A.de Gortari.On the Geography of Global Value Chains[R].NBER Working Paper,2017.
[8]Antras,P.,and R.W.Staiger.Offshoring and the Role of Trade Agreements[J].American Economic Review,2012,102(7):3140-3183.
[9]Antras,P.,T.C.Fort,and F.Tintlenot.The Margins of Global Sourcing:Theory And Evidence from U.S.Firms[J].American Economic Review,2017,107(9):2514-2164.
[10]Arkolakis,C.Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade[J].Journal of Political Economy,2010,118(6):1151-1199.
[11]Arkolakis,C.,A.Costinot,and A.Rodríguez-Clare.New Trade Models,Same Old Gains[J].American Economic Review,2012,102(1):94-130.
[12]Arkolakis,C.,N.Ramondo,A.Rodríguez-Clare,and S.R.Yeaple.Innovation and Production in the Global Economy[J].American Economic Review,2018,108(8):2128-2173.
[13]Bartelme,D.,A.Costinot,D.Donaldson,and A.Rodriguez-clare.External Economies of Scale and Industrial Policy:A View from Trade[R].MIT Working Paper,2018.
[14]Bernard,A.B.,J.B.Jensen,S.J.Redding,and P.K.Schott.Global Firms[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2018a,56(2):565-619.
[15]Bernard,A.,A.Moxnes,and K.H.Ulltveitmoe.Two-sided Heterogeneity and Trade[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2018b,100(3):424-439.
[16]Bilir,L.K.,and E.Morales.Innovation in the Global Firm[R].NBER Working Paper,2018.
[17]Blanchard,E.J.,C.P.Bown,and R.C.Johnson.Global Supply Chains and Trade Policy[R].NBER Working Paper,2016.
[18]Broda,C.,and D.E.Weinstein.Globalization and the Gains from Variety[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2006,121(2):541-585.
[19]Bryan,G.,and M.Morten.The Aggregate Productivity Effects of Internal Migration:Evidence from Indonesia[R].NBER Working Paper,2018.
[20]Buera,F.J.,and E.Oberfield.The Global Diffusion of Ideas[R].NBER Working Paper,2017.
[21]Burstein,A.,G.Hanson,L.Tian,and J.Vogel.Trade Ability and the Labor-Market Impact of Immigration:Theory and Evidence from the U.S[R].NBER Working Paper,2016.
[22]Cai,J.,and N.Li.Growth through Inter-sectoral Knowledge Linkages[J].The Review of Economic Studies,2018,https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy062.
[23]Caliendo,L.,and F.Parro.Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA[J].Review of Economic Studies,2015,82(1):1-44.
[24]Caliendo,L.,F.Parro,E.Rossi-Hansberg,and P.D.Sarte.The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S.Economy[J].Review of Economic Studies,2018,85(4):2042-2096.
[25]Cosar,A.K.,P.L.E.Grieco,S.Li,and F.Tintelnot.What Drives Home Market Advantage[J].Journal of International Economics,2018,(110):135-150.
[26]Costinot,A.,D.Donaldson,and I.Komunjer.What Goods Do Countries Trade?A Quantitative Exploration of Ricardo’s Ideas[J].Review of Economic Studies,2012,79(2):581-608.
[27]Cravino,J.,and A.A.Levchenko.Multinational Firms and Business Cycle Transmission[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2017,132(2):921-962.
[28]Dekle,R.,J.Eaton,and S.Kortum.Global Rebalancing with Gravity:Measuring the Burden of Adjustment[J].IMF Staff Papers,2008,55(3):511-540.
[29]Desmet,K.,D.K.Nagy,and E.Rossi-Hansberg.The Geography of Development[J].Journal of Political Economy,2018,126(3):903-983.
[30]Desmet,K.,and E.Rossi-Hansberg.Urban Accounting and Welfare[J].American Economic Review,2013,103(6):2296-2327.
[31]Eaton,J.,and S.Kortum.Technology,Geography,and Trade[J].Econometrica,2002,70(5):1741-1779.
[32]Eaton,J.,S.Kortum,and F.Kramarz.An Anatomy of International Trade:Evidence from French Firms[J].Econometrica,2011,79(5):1453-1498.
[33]Eaton,J.,S.Kortum,B.Neiman,and J.Romalis.Trade and the Global Recession[J].American Economic Review,2016,106(11):3401-38.
[34]Faber,B.,and C.Gaubert.Tourism and Economic Development:Evidence from Mexico’s Coastline[R].NBERWorking Paper,2018.
[35]Fajgelbaum,P.D.,E.Morales,J.C.S.Serrato,and O.Zidar.State Taxes and Spatial Misallocation[J].Review of Economic Studies,2019,86(1):333-376.
[36]Fally,T.,and R.Hillberry.A Coasian Model of International Production Chains[J].Journal of International Economics,2018,(114):299-315.
[37]Fan,J.T.Internal Geography,Labor Mobility,and the Distributional Impacts of Trade[J].American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.2019.
[38]Feenstra,R.C.,P.Luck,M.Obstfeld,and K.N.Russ.In Search of the Armington Elasticity[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2018,100(1):135-150.
[39]Feng,L.,Z.Y.Li,and D.L.Swenson.Trade Policy Uncertainty and Exports:Evidence from China’s WTOAccession[J].Journal of International Economics,2017,(106):20-36.
[40]Fieler,A.C.,M.Eslava,and D.Y.Xu.Trade,Quality Upgrading,and Input Linkages:Theory and Evidence from Colombia[J].American Economic Review,2018,108(1):109-146.
[41]Galle,S.,A.Rodriguez-Clare,and M.Yi.Slicing the Pie:Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade[R].NBER Working Paper,2015.
[42]Greenstone,M.,R.Hornbeck,and E.Moretti.Identifying Agglomeration Spillovers:Evidence from Winners and Losers of Large Plants Openings[J].Journal of Political Economy,2010,118(3):536-598.
[43]Handley,K.,and N.Lim觔o.Policy Uncertainty,Trade,and Welfare:Theory and Evidence for China and the United States[J].American Economic Review,2017,107(9):2731-2783.
[44]Head,K.,and T.Mayer.Misfits in the Car Industry:Offshore Assembly Decisions at the Variety Level[R].NBER Working Paper,2018.
[45]Helpman,E.,M.J.Melitz,and S.R.Yeaple.Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms[J].American Economic Review,2004,94(1):300-315.
[46]Hottman,C.J.,S.J.Redding,and D.E.Weinstein.Quantifying the Sources of Firm Heterogeneity[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,131(3):1291-1364.
[47]Hsieh,C.T.,E.Hurst,C.I.Jones,and P.J.Klenow.The Allocation of Talent and U.S.Economic Growth[R].NBER Working Paper,2013.
[48]Irarrazabal,A.A.,A.Moxnes,and L.D.Opromolla.The Margins of Multinational Production and the Role of Intra-Firm Trade[J].Journal of Political Economy,2013,121(1):74-126.
[49]Johnson,R.C.,and A.Moxnes.Technology,Trade Costs,and the Pattern of Trade with Multi-Stage Production[R].Dartmouth College Working Paper Series,2016.
[50]Lashkaripour,A.,and V.Lugovskyy.Scale Economies and the Structure of Trade and Industrial Policy[R].Indiana University SSRC Working Paper Series,2016.
[51]Lim,K.Endogenous Production Networks and the Business Cycle[R].University of Toronto Working Paper,2018.
[52]Liu,C.,and Z.Wang.Quantifying the Aggregate Effects of Inter-Firm Knowledge Networks[R].Peking University Working Paper Series,2018.
[53]Low,H.,and C.Meghir.The Use of Structural Models in Econometrics[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2017,31(2):33-58.
[54]Lucas,R.Econometric Policy Evaluation:A Critique[J].Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,Elsevier,1976,1(1):19-46.
[55]Melitz,M.The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry[J].Econometrica,2003,71(6):1695-1725.
[56]Redding,S.J.,and D.E.Weinstein.Aggregating from Micro to Macro Patterns of Trade[R].NBER Working Paper,2018.
[57]Reiss,P.C.,and F.A.Wolak.Structural Econometric Modeling:Rationales and Examples from Industrial Organization[J].Handbook of Econometrics,2007,(6A):4277-4415.
[58]Simonovska,I.,and M.E.Waugh.The Elasticity of Trade:Estimates and Evidence[J].Journal of International Economics,2014,92(1):34-50.
[59]Tintelnot,F.Global Production with Export Platforms[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2017,132(1):157-209.
[60]Tintelnot,F.,A.K.Kikkawa,M.Mogstad,and E.Dhyne.Trade and Domestic Production Networks[R].NBER Working Paper,2018.
[61]Tombe,T.,and X.Zhu.Trade,Migration and Productivity:A Quantitative Analysis of China[EB/OL].https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20150811&&from=f,2019.
[62]Yi,K.M.Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade[J].Journal of Political Economy,2003,111(1):52-102.
[63]Yi,K.M.Can Multi-Stage Production Explain the Home Bias in Trade[J].American Economic Review,2010,100(1):364-393.
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