基于湿热试验的光伏组件功率衰减与使用寿命研究
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摘要
光伏组件功率衰减与使用寿命对于光伏电厂安全、经济运行具有重要意义;针对光伏组件功率衰减和使用寿命问题,在分析加速湿热条件下光伏组件归一化功率倒S形衰减规律基础上,提出以指数时间尺度变换函数对光伏组件非线性归一化功率进行变换,并运用Gamma过程对加速湿热条件下光伏组件归一化功率衰减数据进行建模,进而根据光伏组件使用寿命定义估计光伏组件使用寿命;通过加速湿热试验下光伏组件实测使用寿命与估计的使用寿命,验证了所提方法的正确性与合理性;方法表明,在50℃、45%相对湿度条件下光伏组件平均寿命近似为20～25年;与此同时,还对现有的加速退化试验进行了分析改进,探讨了运用步降加速退化试验代替传统的恒定应力加速退化试验的可能性。
Aiming at the problem of power degradation and service lifetime of photovoltaic(PV)modules,based on the inverted S-shaped normalized power degradation law of PV modules under accelerated damp-heat conditions,an exponential time scale transformation function is proposed to transform the nonlinear normalized power of PV modules.The Gamma process is applied to model the normalized power degradation data of PV modules under accelerated damp-heat conditions,and service lifetime of PV modules is estimated based on the definition of PV module lifetime.The correctness and rationality of the proposed method are verified by measured service lifetime and estimated service lifetime of PV modules under the damp-heat test.The method shows that the average service lifetime of PV modules is about 20-25 years at 50°C and 45% relative humidity.At the same time,the existing accelerated degradation test was analyzed and improved,and the possibility of using the step-down accelerated degradation test instead of the traditional constant stress accelerated degradation test was discussed.
Aiming at the problem of power degradation and service lifetime of photovoltaic(PV)modules,based on the inverted S-shaped normalized power degradation law of PV modules under accelerated damp-heat conditions,an exponential time scale transformation function is proposed to transform the nonlinear normalized power of PV modules.The Gamma process is applied to model the normalized power degradation data of PV modules under accelerated damp-heat conditions,and service lifetime of PV modules is estimated based on the definition of PV module lifetime.The correctness and rationality of the proposed method are verified by measured service lifetime and estimated service lifetime of PV modules under the damp-heat test.The method shows that the average service lifetime of PV modules is about 20-25 years at 50°C and 45% relative humidity.At the same time,the existing accelerated degradation test was analyzed and improved,and the possibility of using the step-down accelerated degradation test instead of the traditional constant stress accelerated degradation test was discussed.
引文
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[22]孙权,冯静,潘正强.基于性能退化的长寿命产品寿命预测技术[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.
[23]Tsai C C,Tseng S T,Balakrishnan N.Optimal design for degradation tests based on gamma processes with random effects[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2012,61(2):604-613.
[2]江华.国内外光伏产业发展现状与趋势[J].太阳能,2016,(12):15-17.
[3]Meyer E L,Dyk E E V.Assessing the reliability and degradation of photovoltaic module performance parameters[J].IEEETransactions on Reliability,2004,53(1):83-92.
[4]Spagnuolo G,Xiao W,Cecati C.Monitoring,Diagnosis,Prognosis,and Techniques for Increasing the Lifetime/Reliability of Photovoltaic Systems[J].IEEE Transactions on Industrial E-lectronics,2015,62(11):7226-7227.
[5]Vázquez M,Rey-Stolle I.Photovoltaic module reliability model based on field degradation studies[J].Prostate,2008,16(5):419-433.
[6]Ndiaye A,Charki A,Kobi A,et al.Degradations of silicon photovoltaic modules:A literature review[J].Solar Energy,2013,96:140-151.
[7]Sharma V,Chandel S S.Performance and degradation analysis for long term reliability of solar photovoltaic systems:A review[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2013,27(6):753-767.
[8]Osterwald C R,Mcmahon T J.History of accelerated and qualification testing of terrestrial photovoltaic modules:A literature review[J].Progress in Photovoltaics Research&Applications,2010,17(1):11-33.
[9]Fouad M M,Shihata L A,Morgan E S I.An integrated review of factors influencing the performance of photovoltaic panels[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2017,80:1499-1511.
[10]K9ntges M,Kurtz S,Packard C,et al.Review of Failures of Photovoltaic Modules[J].IEA-Photovoltaic Power System Programme,2014.
[11]Wohlgemuth J,Kurtz S.Predicting PV module service life[A].SPIE Solar Energy+Technology[C].2013:882503.
[12]郑海兴,舒碧芬,沈辉,等.晶体硅组件长期运行后性能及衰退原因分析[J].太阳能学报,2012,33(4):614-617.
[13]黄盛娟,唐荣,唐立军.光伏组件功率衰减分析研究[J].太阳能,2015(6):21-25.
[14]余荣斌.基于性能退化的光伏组件服役可靠性评估方法研究[D].广州:华南理工大学,2016.
[15]Park S H,Kim J H.Application of gamma process model to estimate the lifetime of photovoltaic modules[J].Solar Energy,2017,147:390-398.
[16]郑海兴,余荣斌,舒碧芬,等.光伏组件加速试验应用现状及发展趋势[J].太阳能,2013(11):45-49.
[17]Kuitche J M.A Statistical Approach to Solar Photovoltaic Module Lifetime Prediction[J].Dissertations&ThesesGradworks,2014.
[18]Koehl M,Hoffmann S,Wiesmeier S.Evaluation of dampheat testing of photovoltaic modules[J].Progress in Photovoltaics Research&Applications,2017,25(2).
[19]Zhu J,Koehl M,Hoffmann S,et al.Changes of solar cell parameters during damp-heat exposure[J].Progress in Photovoltaics Research&Applications,2016,24(10):1346-1358.
[20]邓爱民,陈循,张春华,等.加速退化试验技术综述[J].兵工学报.2007,28(8):1002-1007.
[21]Wang H,Xu T,Mi Q.Lifetime prediction based on Gamma processes from accelerated degradation data[J].Chinese Journal of Aeronautics,2015,28(1):172-179.
[22]孙权,冯静,潘正强.基于性能退化的长寿命产品寿命预测技术[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.
[23]Tsai C C,Tseng S T,Balakrishnan N.Optimal design for degradation tests based on gamma processes with random effects[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2012,61(2):604-613.
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