船舶港口建筑工程造价的预测模型构建
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摘要
针对当前船舶港口建筑工程造价预测误差、准确度低的缺陷,设计了基于贝叶斯回归算法的船舶港口建筑工程造价预测模型。首先对当前船舶港口建筑工程造价预测现状进行分析,分析船舶港口建筑工程造价预测误差大的原因,然后根据船舶港口建筑工程造价数据,引入贝叶斯回归算法对船舶港口建筑工程造价的变化态势进行拟合和预测,最后通过船舶港口建筑工程造价预测的仿真实验分析预测效果,本文模型很好把握了船舶港口建筑工程造价变化规律,船舶港口建筑工程造价预测精度超过95%,船舶港口建筑工程造价预测的训练和测试时间短,船舶港口建筑工程造价结果要明显好于其他模型,为船舶港口建筑工程造价预测提供了一种新的研究工具。
In view of the shortcomings of low accuracy and errors in the current prediction of construction cost of ship ports, a prediction model of construction cost of ship ports based on Bayesian regression algorithm is designed. Firstly, this paper analyses the current situation of the construction cost prediction of ship ports, and analyses the reasons for the large error in the prediction of the construction cost of ship ports. Then, according to the construction cost data of ship ports, the Bayesian regression algorithm is introduced to fit and predict the changing trend of the construction cost of ship ports. Finally, the simulation experiment of the construction cost prediction of ship ports is carried out. Analyzing the forecasting effect, this model has a good grasp of the law of the change of the construction cost of ship ports. The forecasting accuracy of the construction cost of ship ports exceeds 95%. The training and testing time of the forecasting of the construction cost of ship ports is short. The result of the construction cost of ship ports is obviously better than that of other models, which provides a new research worker for the forecasting of the construction cost of ship ports.
In view of the shortcomings of low accuracy and errors in the current prediction of construction cost of ship ports, a prediction model of construction cost of ship ports based on Bayesian regression algorithm is designed. Firstly, this paper analyses the current situation of the construction cost prediction of ship ports, and analyses the reasons for the large error in the prediction of the construction cost of ship ports. Then, according to the construction cost data of ship ports, the Bayesian regression algorithm is introduced to fit and predict the changing trend of the construction cost of ship ports. Finally, the simulation experiment of the construction cost prediction of ship ports is carried out. Analyzing the forecasting effect, this model has a good grasp of the law of the change of the construction cost of ship ports. The forecasting accuracy of the construction cost of ship ports exceeds 95%. The training and testing time of the forecasting of the construction cost of ship ports is short. The result of the construction cost of ship ports is obviously better than that of other models, which provides a new research worker for the forecasting of the construction cost of ship ports.
引文
[1]赵晨.港口水工建筑的质量控制措施[J].黑龙江科技信息,2016, 77(34):210.
[2]周祎明.浅析港口码头建筑工程的质量控制[J].科技创新与应用, 2015, 35(7):214–215.
[3]贾双成,杨凤萍.复杂场景下港口水域船舶异常行为智能识别方法[J].舰船科学技术, 2018, 40(12A):7–9.
[4]郑红星,刘保利,王泽浩,等.考虑潮汐的多港池港口船舶调度优化[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2018, 38(10):2638–2651.
[5]尹训福,郝志峰.基于稀疏贝叶斯回归的正则化核密度估计算法[J].华南理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2009, 37(5):123–129.
[2]周祎明.浅析港口码头建筑工程的质量控制[J].科技创新与应用, 2015, 35(7):214–215.
[3]贾双成,杨凤萍.复杂场景下港口水域船舶异常行为智能识别方法[J].舰船科学技术, 2018, 40(12A):7–9.
[4]郑红星,刘保利,王泽浩,等.考虑潮汐的多港池港口船舶调度优化[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2018, 38(10):2638–2651.
[5]尹训福,郝志峰.基于稀疏贝叶斯回归的正则化核密度估计算法[J].华南理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2009, 37(5):123–129.
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